The new company will provide verified first-party consumer data representing almost five billion consumers globally. As companies prioritize first-party data to meet privacy and data sovereignty requirements, Numerator remains committed to delivering industry-leading privacy standards to uphold consumer trust.

Eric Belcher, currently CEO of Numerator, will lead the new combined organization which will operate globally under the name Numerator. The new company's organization will be set up in compliance with local regulations.

“Brands, retailers, economists, and Wall Street analysts rely on permissioned, differentiated data to stay ahead of consumer trends. Numerator and Worldpanel capture over one million global shopping trips daily, and we use patented methodology to process them,” said Eric Belcher, CEO, Numerator. “Our ownership of this data ensures that it is complete and unrestricted, meeting the growing demand for domain-specific data to fuel AI models.”

Numerator and Worldpanel data are widely used in consumer and shopper insights, while marketers leverage the data for audience creation and ad measurement. With its increasing use in predictive analytics, the new company’s data can inform AI models that forecast trends, identify opportunities, and power personalized experiences at scale.

The new company will be headquartered in Chicago, Illinois, with 5,800 employees worldwide. Its organization will be set up in compliance with local regulations. Guillaume Bacuvier, current CEO of Worldpanel, will continue his successful leadership of the business outside of North America, reporting to Eric Belcher.

Contact:

Numerator
Bob Richter
Richter Media
press@numerator.com
+1 212-802-8588

About Numerator: Numerator is a data and tech company bringing speed and scale to market research. Numerator blends first-party data from over 1 million US households with advanced technology to provide 360-degree consumer understanding for the market research industry that has been slow to change. Headquartered in Chicago, IL, Numerator has 2,000 employees worldwide; 80 of the top 100 CPG brands’ manufacturers are Numerator clients.

Worldpanel decodes shopper behaviour to shape brand futures. Worldpanel provides currency-grade consumer data representing 5 billion consumers in 49 countries, offering brands a multi-dimensional view of how people think, how they shop and how they consume, so they can set bold strategies and drive sustainable business impact. Worldpanel has 3,800 employees worldwide.
The new company's organization will be set up in compliance with local regulations.

• A strong gap between what people say and what they do: While 78% of people believe they are responsible for their health, less than half proactively engage with their physical health, and even fewer invest effort into their mental wellbeing.
• Stress is a dominant barrier to health and triggers a negative health spiral: 61% view stress as a negative factor on health.
• Cost is a factor influencing healthy consumer choices: 52% of people cite the high cost of healthier options as the main reason they don’t buying them.
• Unbalanced diets present the highest say-do gap: 62% see processed food as harmful, but only 37% say they actively avoid it.
• The study covers 35 markets, including Saudi Arabia (KSA), United Arab Emirates (UAE), Egypt, Morocco, South Africa, Nigeria, and Kenya.

The gap between intention and action

Most people around the world believe they’re the ones responsible for their own health. But they’re not acting on their beliefs: just 51% of people proactively engage with their physical health and only 48% work towards their mental wellbeing. In fact, only 56% of people globally feel they are doing well or very well on both physical and mental health fronts.

It’s not just consumers that have a part to play in maintaining health and wellbeing. Nearly half of people (49%) think brands should play a role in ensuring a healthier lifestyle and 47% expect government policy support for better health.

Sleep targeted to combat stress, but excessive screen time still plagues many

More than three in five consumers (61%) identified stress as a significant health barrier. This is creating a vicious cycle: stress leads to poor eating habits, which makes managing weight harder, which in turn adds more stress. It is a universal concern which consumers say is as much a mental challenge as a physical one.

Many know they need to turn to improved sleep habits to combat this: 45% of consumers recognise that going to bed early is crucial to reducing stress, though less than two thirds (63%) of people regularly get a good night’s sleep. This could be down to prolonged screen time, which only a third of people are actively limiting – despite many expressing a desire to disconnect.

Alternative weight management strategies are taking hold

Weight management poses a key challenge for people, with 38% of consumers indicating it impacts their health negatively. Traditional strategies such as avoiding high calorie, processed products (used by 71% of people) and exercise (used by 47% of people) remain popular. However, new tools such as dietary monitoring apps are now reaching 8% of consumers globally, and there is also a small but growing awareness of pharmaceutical solutions like GLP-1 obesity medications.

Karan Gupta, Regional Director, Consumer & Shopper Insights (PanelVoice),  Africa & Middle East, Worldpanel Division, Kantar said: “GLP-1 medications like Ozempic and Wegovy are currently only used by 3% of shoppers, but that’s a big number for three reasons: first, consider how new they are to the market. Second, shortages may well be limiting supply in some regions. And third, we know that high costs are a barrier for many people interested in trying these products. While these drugs are often referenced as a celebrity trend, these figures are definitely indicating an openness among normal people to exploring newer approaches to weight management.”

Embedded snack culture adds to a reliance on processed foods and sugary beverages

An unbalanced diet, influenced by reliance on processed foods and sugary beverages, is recognised by three in ten people as detrimental to health. Yet while 62% see processed food as harmful, only 37% actively avoid it. It’s a similar pattern for sugary drinks: 73% see them as harmful, but fewer than half (48%) are cutting back on products high in sugar.

One reason for the strong draw of processed foods and sugary drinks is a snack culture that has taken over the market. Savoury snacks and carbonated soft drinks have the highest product penetration of the FMCG product categories at 90% and 77% respectively; the prevalence and accessibility of these products makes it more challenging for consumers to avoid them, as does the fact that more than two thirds of people say it’s important to regularly indulge in a treat.

Consumers feel they’re being priced out of making the right choices

Cost holds a strong influence over people’s ability to choose healthy products. More than half of people (52%) cite the high cost of healthier options as the main barrier to buying them. Meanwhile, a lack of trust and confusion about what constitutes truly healthy packaged foods also prevents consumers from being able to make healthy choices.

Karan Gupta said: “People want to do better but are caught in cycles of stress, unhealthy eating habits, and barriers to effective weight management, which are often exacerbated by high costs. Brands have a critical opportunity to make a difference. By tackling affordability, convenience, transparency, and emotional needs, they can bridge the gap between how people want to live and their reality, helping improve health outcomes for people around the world.”

For more information, read Who Cares? Who Does? Health: Decoding Wellness here

Watch the webinar on demand and reach out to our experts.

This Worldpanel Pulse Panel will provide brands, manufacturers and retailers with a detailed picture of Ugandan households’ FMCG purchase decisions in the food, beverage, dairy, personal care and home care sectors. Data is based on actual purchase behaviour – not what shoppers recall they bought – ensuring that insights are accurate.

Comprising 1,000 households of all ages, sizes and socioeconomic levels, the panel is representative of 73% of Uganda’s 41 million-strong population. It covers large, medium and smaller cities and towns in both urban and semi-urban regions.

The insights will bring local and global clients an understanding of how many households buy their brands – and those of their competitors, which ones, how often, who the buyers are, and what they pay. Collecting shoppers’ psychographics along with demographics uncovers the values, attitudes, interests and lifestyles that shape their behaviour.

The launch of Worldpanel’s Pulse Panel in Uganda further increases Kantar’s footprint in the high potential East Africa region, where it has been present since 2013 through its continuous panel in Kenya. Kantar offers the widest coverage of any market research company in Africa and the Middle East, and the most complete view of consumers there, with panels also in Ghana, Ethiopia, South Africa, Nigeria, Morocco, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and UAE. This latest investment in Uganda will be followed by panels in Algeria, Cameroon, Senegal and Tanzania to meet client demand.

Idriss El Ganari, General Manager, Worldpanel, Africa and Middle East, says: “Uganda’s FMCG sector offers significant growth potential, driven by rising incomes, an expanding population and urbanisation. To secure growth and expand their market share, brands, manufacturers and retailers must develop their knowledge of consumers’ needs and behaviours. Worldpanel’s new Pulse Panel will help them to understand their performance compared with competitors, and uncover opportunities – for instance to boost brand awareness and localise their products, both of which are important in this market.”

How it works

• Shoppers conduct their normal grocery shopping, and record each FMCG purchase they bring back into the home for consumption or usage.
• Interviewers visit the home fortnightly to collect the information, and validate actual purchases using the product packaging.
• The data is weighted to represent the country’s purchasing habits.

Clients will receive:

Key brand measures report: Topline shopping KPIs across value, volume, penetration, spend/volume per buyer, spend/volume per trip, frequency, and average price, for all demographics and channels.

Category overview: A summary of key category purchasing behaviours, looking at who buys the brand, channel dynamics, how this differs to competitors, and where opportunities exist.

Other benefits include:

• Analysis by product, channel and retailer
• Reporting and segmenting by SKU
• The strongest team of shopper experts in the world

The Ugandan panel connects Kantar’s wider African consumer panels with a consolidated global network of harmonised Worldpanel services in 60+ countries in Europe, Asia, the Americas and Middle East.

If you would like to learn more about this new panel, please reach out to our experts.

However, data for Q4 2023 shows an increase in volume consumption, providing reasons for optimism at last. Inflation has been dropping continuously since February – although at 2.2%, this is still double the pre-2022 level – making it easier for households to gain control over their budgets once again. As a result, purchase volume and consumer confidence are both trending upwards.

Rationalisation remains

Due to rising FMCG prices, and the corresponding increase in spend, Moroccans have had to compensate by buying fewer packs. This is still the case across the majority of categories, with half declining in volume over 2023, and just 24% growing. Personal care, home care, and dairy were hit particularly hard.

The performance of almost all dairy categories was impacted last year, with only fresh cheese managing to increase both volume and penetration, gaining 5.5% more households in 2023. Volume sales of personal and home care products have been sliding since the pandemic, and every category in these sectors has suffered: not one managed to grow its volume in 2023.

Certain personal care brands have illustrated that it’s still possible to find opportunities to grow in a declining category, however. Among those increasing their sales volume were toilet soap brands Taous (13%), Chapo (+23%) and El-Warda (34%), Herbal Essences shampoo (+5%), toothpaste brands CloseUp (+13%) and DoctorDent (+5%), and feminine care brand Mia (+16%).                                    

Winners and losers in food and beverages

At the close of 2023, price inflation in the food and beverage sectors stood at 4.3%. Prices remain high in some categories, with the steepest year-on-year increases in chocolate confectionery (+34%), ready-to-eat desserts (+24%) and milk (+19%). However, the slowing rate of inflation is having an effect on consumer behaviour. While households are still cautious in their consumption of oil, for example, they’re purchasing more in other categories such as chocolate spreads.

There has been a big change A shift is operating in the consumption of beverages, with hot drinks being chosen less often by Moroccan shoppers. Carbonated soft drinks (CSD) and fruit juices are the winners, increasing value and purchase frequency by tempting consumers to switch from other categories thanks to successful innovation, communication, and price control.

BIM is the star performer

The largest discount grocery retailer in Morocco, BIM has grown its presence across the country by successfully recruiting new shoppers from other channels and increasing purchase frequency. It is rapidly expanding its number of stores nationwide.

With lower prices than the hypermarket chain Marjane and supermarket chain Carrefour, BIM’s concept sits between modern trade in terms of experience, and grocery stores in its convenience and practicality. The retailer’s increasing popularity is country-wide, with particular strength in semi-rural areas, and with smaller and younger households and middle class consumers.

The majority of FMCG categories are growing within BIM, but performance is especially high in milk, deodorants, paper towels, CSD and spoonable yogurts. However, its rivals in the modern trade channel are fighting back back by developing new concepts.

Gradually, consumer behaviour in Morocco is stabilising, and the volume-value gap has started to reduce. During the first quarter of 2024, things took a positive turn. But the picture is not altogether straightforward: unemployment is set to rise this year compared to 2023, for instance. This means it’s vital for brands and retailers to stay abreast of the decisions shoppers are making.

Worldpanel’s consumer panel in Morocco covers more than 40 categories, across all channels: hypermarkets and supermarkets, grocery stores, souks, pharmacies, cleaning shops, and online platforms. If you would like further insights, fill in the form at the right side of this page to download a presentation and contact our experts.

This reality led to a 6% year-on-year decline in the frequency of shopping trips, in parallel with a reduction in basket size of 1%. Total FMCG volume in the country declined -5%, with a 2% increase in spend.

The drop in consumption can be seen across most of the FMCG sectors. The biggest impact was felt in the food sector (-10%), followed by non-alcoholic beverages (-6%). Food and dairy were hardest hit in terms of shopping frequency, both suffering a decline of 7%, while volume per trip fell furthest in food (-5%) and non-alcoholic beverages (-4%).

The only sector not facing these challenges was home care, where a rise of 5% in volume was matched by an increase in spend of 5%. Shopping frequency also bucked the trend, with growth of 1%, along with a 2% increase in volume per trip.

Most brands are in decline

In December 2021 53% of brands were growing in Kenya; in December 2023 this figure had fallen to just 45%. In the beverages and dairy categories, more than half of all brands are in decline, compared to 38% of home care brands.

In food, the entire category is facing decline apart from the culinary, flour and cereals segments. Other FMCG categories that are managing to weather the storm and grow include cocoa & chocolate, yogurt, lotions, deodorants, feminine care, hair care, insecticides, fabric treatments, toilet cleaner, bleach, and air fresheners.

Overall, categories with lower penetration are suffering more than those with a larger footprint. This is particularly marked in beverages, where frequency for brands with the lowest penetration plummeted 26% in one year.

Where are consumers shopping?

Key supermarkets are growing in importance in Kenya, as shoppers are attracted by the better deals they get in this channel. Both spend and volume have increased 11% year-on-year. It’s a very different story for international supermarkets, with significant drops of 39% and 40% respectively.

A huge 57.7% of all shoppers’ FMCG budgets is spent in kiosks, making it essential that brands are present within this channel.

Penetration is king

For brands in Kenya, growth will only come from expanding their shopper base. They must be ready to manage churn, through an ongoing mission to recruit buyers. Even the strongest brands are losing 40-50% of their shoppers each quarter, so regular activation is critical.

Accessibility is another high priority. Strong brands have a broad reach because they are available across all channels. They offer a wide range, with something to meet the needs of every type of consumer, and to fit every occasion.

Brands should innovate value-driven products that have multiple usage occasions, within the right pack, range, and price offering, and have products that are targeted at different shopper groups. While kiosks are the priority channel, there is a major opportunity to grow within key supermarkets and neighbourhood supermarkets.

Fill in the form on the right side of the page to download the latest report on Kenya’s FMCG market.

Meanwhile, Saudi consumers are reprioritising their shopping budgets, and adjusting their shopping habits. Food and dairy categories dominate FMCG spending, contributing 41.4% and 28.7% respectively to the sector’s total value. They are also benefiting from high purchase frequency – shoppers are buying food and dairy products an average of 15.1 times per month – as well as significant online engagement, with 31.7% of Saudi consumers buying the categories online over the past 12 months. 

Shoppers favour modern trade when purchasing food and dairy, and this channel holds a significant volume share of 71%. Brands and retailers should build upon this preference by enhancing in-store experiences and promotions.

Modern trade and online transform how Saudis shop

Currently, 53.1% of spend on FMCG is made through modern trade and online platforms, with shoppers visiting an average of 4.7 of these channels over the last 12 months. In terms of penetration, modern trade now reaches almost 100% of the population. 

Leading retail giants including Panda, Othaim, and Carrefour are mastering the art of consumer engagement through strategic store placements and marketing tactics. Panda and Othaim are leaders in market penetration, holding 72% and 65% respectively, while Carrefour excels in spend per trip and basket size – mainly driven by purchases of dairy and home care products.

Discounters, which now have penetration of 73.8%, capturing 5.6% of total FMCG spend, are predominantly pushing home care segments with targeted strategies. Retailers in this channel should focus their attention on expat Asians, and catering to their desire for value-driven offers.

Brands and retailers must tailor their marketing and store strategies to align with consumer activities across different channels, boosting presence in favoured stores to spur sales, and targeting frequently visited outlets to deepen market reach.

A diverse socioeconomic canvas

Brands need to understand how people’s age group and income level influence their FMCG spending habits, and create product strategies in line with these trends. For instance, while Saudis within the higher socio-economic levels have slightly reduced their consumption, the middle classes present a potential sweet spot for volume growth.

There is also a contrast between the spending patterns of consumers under 30 and those within the over-40 demographic, emphasising the need for tailored marketing strategies. Younger buyers are willing to pay more for quality FMCG products, while the 40+ group spend more than their fair share due to larger family sizes – contributing 43% of total FMCG value while making up 40% of population. Consistently rising volume among the under-30s indicates surging product engagement, while on the over-40s are showing restraint. This points towards the potential of youth-centric marketing strategies.

Brands and retailers should analyse demographic variations to refine their engagement strategies, marketing efforts and promotion efficiency, and ensure brand presence is optimised for each consumer segment. This might include engaging younger buyers with premium quality ranges, and catering to the 40+ audience with products suited to the needs of larger families.

Further opportunities for growth and innovation are set to emerge across diverse FMCG segments in Saudi as the non-oil sector expands. Strategies such as enhancing in-store experiences, targeting home care products in discount stores, and fine-tuning marketing efforts based on demographic insights will help brands and retailers stay ahead in this rapidly evolving market.

This marks a reversal from the degrowth observed until Q2. This performance was boosted by Ramadan and the back-to-school period. Sales value rose despite a lower frequency of visits, and a slight decrease in spend per trip. This indicates there has been an increase in purchase volume per trip – a very positive sign for brands and retailers within the market.

Consumers in the UAE are feeling more optimistic, against the backdrop of an upgraded annual growth projection driven by the resilient non-oil sector, which includes FMCG, real estate, tourism and financial services. This has offset the impact of the recent cut in the contribution made by oil to the nation’s GDP.

Inflation softens – with segment-specific nuances

Overall, FMCG inflation in the UAE is on a downward trend, with price rises of 1.9% in Q2 followed by a modest drop of -0.7% in Q3. However, a segment-by-segment view reveals contrasting trends: for instance, prices are continuing to increase by 3.2% in the beverages category, while there is marked deflation of -4.2% in personal care.

Overall, we've seen minimal changes in consumer behaviour despite slight price fluctuations across most categories. As inflation begins to ease, shoppers are noticeably increasing the size of their baskets.

Personal care is the exception to the rule. This is where shoppers in the UAE have exhibited the most conspicuous cost-saving behaviour. Even though prices have dropped significantly, so has volume – by -3.7% – as consumers shifted their priorities to other sectors. Meanwhile, a 2.9% volume surge in the dairy category, in spite of a 0.6% price increase, suggests that it remains an essential purchase in consumers’ eyes.

These patterns underscore the nuanced effects of inflation on consumer spending, and implies that resilience and price sensitivity are segment-specific. Brands need to tailor their strategies to each individual category and its unique trends, to engage consumers, capture market opportunities and maintain volume growth.

Brands and retailers also need to understand how demographics influence shopping behaviour. With a 1.8% year-on-year volume growth in Q3, middle income consumers demonstrate strong growth potential, while targeting the higher socio-economic groups with upselling and cross-selling strategies will capitalise on their tendency to buy higher volumes per trip.

A need for innovation in promotional tactics

Brands’ promotional strategies are not currently resonating with consumers in the UAE. In times of inflation, one would expect shoppers to be more inclined towards deals. However, at 33% the percentage of purchases made under promotions in modern trade channels is disappointingly low, and remains stagnant.

This trend suggests that shoppers aren't perceiving enough added value in promotions as they are currently structured. Brands must rethink their approaches, innovating beyond simple price cuts to create personalised offers, enriched experiences, and value-centric campaigns, to align more closely with evolving consumer expectations and purchasing behaviours.

The UAE faces a number of key challenges moving into 2024, including higher interest rates for investments, and lower oil contribution to national GDP. In the dynamic FMCG landscape, brands must be ready to smartly align with market shifts, offering value-driven products, and segmenting strategically to build loyalty and leverage growth channels for a lasting competitive advantage.

Contact our experts to find out how to grow your brand in this context, and fill in the form at the right side of this page to download a deck with extra insights.

In this session, our industry experts will look at three key areas: 

1. Pinpoint which stage of metamorphosis the Middle East markets are at.
2. Discover what's fuelling the shift to online shopping.
3. Explore how various online platforms are shaping ecommerce.

WATCH THE WEBINAR ON DEMAND HERE

Consumers are spending more but buying fewer brands

Competition is fierce in FMCG across AME with 450 million more brand choices. However, our analysis has revealed that although shoppers are spending 12.5% more, they are buying fewer brands. This is in contrast to what is happening in other countries around the world and where spend rose only by 4.8% globally.

Small and medium brands are winning

Brand loyalty is high in the region with brand frequency up 12%. Local brands dominate shoppers’ baskets. Our data from the last three years shows that local brands have gained importance at the expense of global brands and in 2022 Consumer Reach Points (CRP) growth for local brands was almost quadruple that of global brands. Small and medium brands are winning and have grown mainly through increased penetration, while large and super brands are growing from both penetration and frequency.

Watch our webinar on demand where we share more insights to help you build a deeper understanding of consumers in Africa and the Middle East and reveal the winning strategies to grow your brand in the region. Get in touch with our experts for further information. 

 It’s a very competitive market with only just over half of brands growing volume year on year.

Consumers adapt as prices rise

Prices are rising - consumers are spending 20% more on FMCG compared to the year before. People are feeling the pinch and are adapting by changing the way they shop in response.

No one size fits all approach

Consumers are prioritising essentials and products that offer value for money, but the situation varies across geographic region, age and economic groups. For instance, the bulk buyers and heavy spenders are the ones cutting back more on shopping trips while maximizing every store visit.

Watch our webinar on demand where you will discover which are the Most Chosen FMCG Brands in the country, more insights to help you build a deeper understanding of consumers in Kenya, and what we can learn from the most successful brands. Get in touch with our experts for further information.

Economic conditions in Saudi are improving. Domestic demand remains robust, while inflation is easing slightly – dropping from 3.4% in January 2023 to 2.7% in February and March. However, it’s likely that consumers may continue to become more price-sensitive, seeking out discounts, promotions, and lower-priced alternatives. They may also prioritise essential goods over discretionary items, and adjust their consumption patterns.

The volume-value gap

In the Saudi market, pricing pressures are widening the volume-value gap. While inflation has plateaued, steep price rises persist and are impacting all FMCG segments.

This is especially the case in essential categories like dairy – where price increases jumped from 9.5% in June 2022 to 17% in March 2023, and food, with a jump from 7.9% to 12.5%.

This ongoing trend requires brands and retailers to analyse price-volume-value dynamics, adapt their pricing strategies to changing consumer behaviours, and focus on value and innovation.

Target Saudi and young buyers

Saudi buyers have greater purchasing power and contribute more value to the FMCG market than expats in the region. This makes it crucial for marketers to engage with this audience to drive success.

Capturing the loyalty of younger consumers is also key. While they contribute a lower share of volume and spend, they are willing to pay more for FMCG products – and marketers should leverage this opportunity.

Understanding the interplay between spending power and price consciousness across different socio-economic groups opens strategic opportunities for tailored offerings.

Discounters hold significant potential

Modern trade remains the dominant FMCG channel in Saudi Arabia, in terms of penetration, spend per trip and value share. Discounters are performing strongly, and brands should capitalise on their soaring popularity: they now reach 64% of the region’s population. More than a dozen discounters have emerged in recent times – including Economic Hall, Jeddah, and Dammam – offering shoppers a broader range of options and potentially lower prices.

Leveraging the high penetration and developing depth of the discounter channel presents an opportunity for significant sales growth, especially for brands in the personal care and home care categories.

Discounters appeal to a diverse shopper base, across a range of nationalities and socioeconomic groups, and are favoured by younger consumers.

To unlock the full potential of the thriving Saudi FMCG market, brands must foster stronger relationships with young shoppers, strengthen partnerships with discounters, and optimise pricing strategies. Continuous monitoring of market trends and consumer preferences will ensure sustained growth and competitiveness.

Download the deck for more insights and contact our experts.

The latest edition of Kantar Worldpanel’s Omnichannel Report provides a detailed map of the shifting retail terrain. From changing consumer behaviour influenced by inflation to the growing dominance of discounters and private label in some markets. This report is your trusted compass to explore new opportunities.

With a focus on long-term perspectives, the report also illuminates how different markets are addressing the ripple effects of inflation and the legacy of COVID-19. Understanding these shifts is paramount.

What does this mean for your brand? How can you harness these changes to ensure your brand not only survives but thrives? Dive into our detailed report and let us guide you through the FMCG currents of change.

If you saw our recent webinar, we hope it was helpful. This report builds on that with new additional findings, particularly on the surge of private label.

Read the report here and contact our experts for further information.

The Brand Footprint study has examined around 37,000 brands in 53 markets on five continents to discover the secrets of brand resilience in this challenging market. Kenya is, of course, one of the markets we have studied, and we would like to invite you to a webinar in which we will reveal:

• The ranking of the Most Chosen FMCG brands in Kenya
• The strategies behind these successful brands
• Brands on the rise to keep an eye on
• Consumer behaviour towards brands and the key drivers of brand resilience

The webinar will take place on 5 July at 12 pm (GMT +3), and registration is free of charge. Don't miss this opportunity to gain a valuable insight into Kenya’s leading brands by joining us on our virtual session.

Reserve your spot today by clicking on this link. 

If you are not able to attend the webinar, please sign up, and we'll share a link so you can watch it on demand.

Inflation in Dubai dropped in Q1 of 2023 to an average of 4.6%, down from 6.2% in Q3 of 2022. However, the easing in Dubai and UAE was slower than in other parts of the world, including the US and the Eurozone.

Price increases are becoming more restrained in most FMCG segments, except for beverages. This makes monitoring pricing trends across different product categories crucial for creating brand-specific strategies.

The relatively moderate price rises have correlated with a slight 1.3% increase in volume in Q1, as buyers rationalise their purchases to a lesser extent. While pricing pressures have been widening the gap between FMCG volume and value, a strong rise in volume purchase over the month of Ramadan in 2023 was a positive development for brands and retailers.

As inflation begins to plateau, the rate of growth in FMCG spend is softening.

Shoppers take action to control spend

In the short term, the primary measure consumers in the UAE are applying to counter their financial pressures is reducing shopping frequency. They are also continuing to reduce volume, and buying fewer packs per trip in some categories. Recent trends also indicate that shoppers are buying larger packs of food, beverages and personal care.

With penetration gains in most segments shrinking, brands need to become more competitive to increase sales and market share. They should leverage opportunities in segments that are experiencing penetration gain, and take a fresh look at portfolio management to adapt to the trend for larger pack purchases where relevant.

Opportunities in hypermarkets and online

A shift in consumer behaviour towards exploring alternative shopping options, for example, hypermarkets, presents both challenges and opportunities for brands. While it increases their exposure to a wider range of customers and enables them to negotiate better partnership deals due to larger volume purchases, competition within hypermarkets is heating up. This makes differentiation challenging. Brands need to adjust both their marketing and product ranges to match hypermarket shoppers' preferences and behaviour.

Only around 11% of the top 600 FMCG brands in the UAE don’t sell online. Online shopping is still growing, driven largely by its convenience and through the increased usage of ecommerce by households in the region.

The size of online pack purchases is gradually decreasing – but shoppers are paying higher average prices in approximately 67% of categories. Half of FMCG brands are selling at a premium online, with the other half selling at a cheaper price than offline. This indicates opportunities for both premiumisation and discounting strategies in the ecommerce space.

Expat Arabs remain at the forefront of online shopping. Increasing participation from other nationalities, especially those in higher socio-economic groups and Emiratis, would drive further adoption within the channel.

Brands and retailers should adjust their strategies to align with the rise of online shopping, including updating their channel mix and product packaging sizes to better align with in-store shopping.

The pandemic has brought about permanent changes to consumer behaviour in the UAE. Overall, the FMCG market remains positive as the region enters a post-pandemic world. However, it’s clear that seasonal factors, along with hikes in basket prices, drive fluctuations in consumers’ purchase behaviour. Brands and retailers must remain flexible, and keep a close eye on the trends in order to develop and execute adaptive marketing strategies.

For more insights, download the full deck and get in touch with our experts.

In the face of the ongoing global cost-of-living crisis, discounters are expected to further increase their share of the grocery market, prompted by cash strapped households looking for bargain buys.

While in the UAE the discounter format is relatively new, it has been readily embraced much like in other global regions. Notably, one of the early adopters, VIVA – which opened its doors in 2018 – now has a substantial reach, catering to around one third of the households in UAE, with a penetration of 27%, almost doubling in two years.

Although VIVA’s growth has been fuelled by the recent pandemic – spend grew by 35.5% and volume by 40% in 2021, when households were looking for greater value for every dirham they spent – the momentum has not slowed. Spend increased by 95.6% and volume by 89.5% in 2022. This suggests that households will always tend to resort to value-seeking measures in times of crisis.

Will the discounter phenomenon in UAE be as big as Aldi/Lidl in Europe?

Let’s understand what fuels a discounter’s growth. The attraction is simple: it offers high quality products at a cheaper price. For example, out of 73 categories tracked by Worldpanel’s UAE panel, VIVA shoppers pay less for 65 of them – essentially resulting in a saving of around 25% compared with popular supermarkets.

This indicates that discounters in the market pose a potential threat to the mighty super and hyper markets. Worldpanel data suggests likewise. In the past year, 56% of VIVA’s volume growth has been driven by households switching from key modern trade channels. This trend mirrors the growth trajectory of Aldi and Lidl!

Busting the myth: value appeals to all levels of affluence

The notion of value shopping only appealing to lower income households has been debunked by the rise of discounters in the UAE.

Currently, shoppers who visit discounters spend on average 1.5 times less per shopping trip. Mainly less affluent households, they predominantly purchase categories that are either to be consumed fresh, such as dairy, or have a longer shelf life, such as pantry and household essentials.

However, while shopping in discounters might have carried a stigma over a decade ago, today even affluent households are happy to abandon a family favourite for an almost identical product from a less well-known brand if it means saving money. A significant proportion of the heaviest shoppers at VIVA, for example, come from the highest socio-economic groups.

Large FMCG brands are being squeezed…

The exponential growth of discounters is also eroding the market share of mainstream brands. A large percentage of the brands discounters stock are exclusive to them, sourced in bulk, direct from the manufacturer. This allows them to pass the savings on to consumers.

For example, only 20% of the 1,200 products stocked by VIVA are established European or Asian brands, and purchases of these are declining. The remaining 80% of stocked brands – such as Balaji, MC Snacker and Wanted – are seeing more than 100% growth in volume year-on-year.

With global food prices continuing to soar, discounters in the UAE will pose a significant threat to major supermarkets and FMCG manufacturers alike if they continue to grow at the current rate. While Aldi and Lidl do stock brands with global appeal, FMCG manufacturers need to explore potential partnerships to ride the hard discounter wave.

…but a discounter listing can be a win-win!

A mutually beneficial win-win position can be reached by FMCG manufacturers to get their brand listed by discounters. Worldpanel data on global markets shows us that there is little cannibalisation of sales of other brands when this happens – instead it leads to growth in both buyer base and sales volume. This is because consumers appreciate having a choice within the category, and the opportunity to buy that brand during their trip to the discounter.

While there isn’t a handbook on turning a discounter listing into a win-win, FMCG manufacturers can begin by understanding:

• Is their category or SKU growing or strong already?
• Is their category highly visible in store?
• Do they offer a discounter price point with a pack size that justifies the expected premium?

Worldpanel can help FMCG manufacturers operating in the UAE to initiate dialogue with discounters, leveraging Worldpanel data to understand how they are growing. Manufacturers can also take advantage of Worldpanel’s category manager and assortment tool to find out how both they and the discounter can grow through stocking the optimum product range.

Reach out to our experts for more information.

Changing consumer priorities

The FMCG market in the UAE continued to thrive in 2022, partly driven by the expansion of the expatriate population in the latter part of the year. However, FMCG spend shifted in a way that suggested a change in consumer priorities and spending behaviour.

People are shopping less often, but spending more, and the gap between the two widened throughout 2022. This was driven by a rising basket value which was sparked by the global pandemic and compounded by the war in Ukraine and inflation. At the end of 2022, spend per trip reached the highest level since COVID.

Shoppers prioritise food and home care

Despite the inflationary pressures, the FMCG industry grew in 2022. Spend on beverages tumbled by -4% and personal care by -5% due to shoppers shifting their spend to food and home care products, which grew by 5% and 7%, respectively. Dairy struggled the most and also experienced the biggest price rises. But not only are brands in the personal care and beverage losing out to other segments, they also face tougher competition and so it’s vital for them to adopt fresh marketing strategies so they stand out in the market.

It's time to take a fresh look at the traditional promotional strategy

Promotions no longer have the power they once had. Their impact has dwindled over the past two years leading many brands to cut their promotional spend. Alternative marketing strategies and tactics may produce better results, such as improving the in-store experience, enhancing the product offering, leveraging social media and influencer marketing, and personalising the customer journey through data-driven insights.

But while promotions declined, the popularity of online shopping continued to grow in 2022. Consumers purchased nearly 6% of all FMCG products online, showing a preference for larger pack sizes and higher purchase quantities compared to offline shopping.

Adapting strategy to changing shopper behavior and going online is essential for brand growth.

As the UAE economy faces a slowdown, it's becoming increasingly important for retailers and manufacturers to adapt their strategies to keep pace with the changing spending patterns of consumers. In particular, the growing popularity of online shopping is something that cannot be ignored - this trend has only been accelerated by the COVID-19 pandemic.

To succeed in this environment, better targeting is crucial. This could mean renewing the appeal of premium brands to affluent segments or offering the right product assortment and bundles to attract middle-class shoppers. By identifying and responding to the unique needs and preferences of different customer segments, retailers and manufacturers can position themselves for growth and success.

To access more data, download the report at the top of the page or contact one of our experts to discuss any of our findings.

Overall FMCG value growth reached 12.1% during the third quarter of 2022, up from 5.2% in the same period in 2021. However, this has been purely driven by rising prices; volume has dropped by 2.5%; with shoppers purchasing less often & putting less in their shopping baskets.

Inflation drives country performance

While the overall trend is similar across the region, no two countries are quite the same. For example, prices have risen dramatically in West Africa – up 30% on last year – which has led to bigger drops in volume bought in both Nigeria and Ghana. Unsurprisingly, these countries also posted the highest year-on-year value growth of 25.9% and 23.8% respectively.

The story is a little different in the Middle East; where inflation rates have risen slower in both Saudi & the UAE meaning the average prices shoppers are paying and overall spends per trip are both lower in these markets compared with the rest of the AME region.

How are shoppers coping with the cost-of-living crisis?

Shoppers reducing their spend will be something to keep monitoring in 2023. How they do this will depend on the country and category with different options available; buy less, switch store, and/or buying cheaper options. Kantar Worldpanel can measure the contribution of each to understand the change in household spend, crucial to understand to be able to once again drive volume growth.

Worldpanel continues to measure consumer behaviour and purchasing habits across the AME region, including new markets in 2022 - Ethiopia, and Iraq. For the first time understand behaviours here through our Pulse, dip service.

Download our AME in Lights: Take Home FMCG Trends Q3 2022 deck through the link below for extra insights that bring to life regional FMCG trends. It reveals how shoppers have reacted to the rising cost of living, and includes details on channel performance market by market.

Contact our experts to learn more about how our Shopper Coping Strategies can help you quantify how consumers respond to changes in your category – both over time and by key shopper groups.

However, controlling spiraling inflation is still a key challenge. Inflation reached a 15-month high in September, and for the everyday shopper rising commodity prices have significantly shrunk their income in real terms.

Shoppers are more restrained

Feeling the heat of the FMCG price rises, Saudi shoppers are becoming increasingly prudent, changing their shopping behaviour to ease the pressure on their wallet.

They have reduced the volume of FMCG they purchase to a lower level than in pre-COVID times, and are planning their trips a lot more carefully. Shopping frequency is the lowest it’s been in recent memory.

Despite this cautiousness, spend per trip is still rising fast.

Overall FMCG value in Saudi Arabia grew 3.9% in September 2022 compared to the same period last year, while the average price went up by 13.5%. Volume, meanwhile, dropped by 9%.

All FMCG categories – including food, beverages, dairy, personal care and home care – are being hit by shrinking volume sales. The most dramatic evidence of the ‘inflation effect’ can be seen in dairy, where prices soared by 18%, while volume declined by 8.8%, resulting in value growth of 8.1%.

By reducing shopping frequency and basket size, shoppers in urban areas are dragging down the growth of modern trade.

Brands must think long-term

Brand owners are facing a tough battle for market share, as promo-driven shopping reached one of its highest levels since the pre-COVID era: 38.2% of FMCG spend now goes on products that are on promotion, compared with 34.3% in September 2020. A smart promo strategy that supports the bottom line by consistently leveraging core brand equity is vital.

Click the link on the right side of this page to download our paper – A Marketer’s Guide to Navigating the Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates FMCG Sector, Q3 2022 – and discover more about the retail dynamics and in-home purchase strategies of consumers in this unique market, or contact our experts.

Shoppers in Saudi and UAE are more prudent than ever. This is making growth a challenge – even in Modern Trade channels. While smaller retail chains are able to drive growth through expansion, big retailers are finding it hard to grow further. It is essential that retailers and brands monitor and adapt to these shifting trends. The question is, how can we find growth during these challenging times?

Join us on the 26 October to find out. Our expert Divesh Israni, Retail & Shopper Director, will explore the specific tools and pieces of evidence we can use to deliver growth for both retailers and manufacturers in the Middle East.

Watch the webinar on demand here.

If you are not able to attend, then please sign up and we will share a link to the recording so you can watch it when it suits you.

Whether you are a retailer, brand or manufacturer, our Pulse Panel insights will help you to increase the number of new shoppers, build loyalty, horizon scan for the latest trends and maximise your return on investment.

Our sample covers 54% of rural and urban households in the country across eight provinces in Arab and Kurdish Iraq – including Arab North, Baghdad / Central, Najab, Kurdistan and Basra.

We provide the most detailed insight into Iraq’s consumer landscape across all ages, household sizes and socioeconomic levels. We analyse actual purchase behaviour across all demographics and all FMCG channels so you can predict, monitor and understand consumer shopping behaviour across traditional Iraqi trade channels such as supermarkets, baqalas, kiosks, street vendors, cleaning and milk shops, as well as modern trade.

Contact our experts for a free consultation to learn how we can help you win in this market.

Every brand in South Africa must deal with significant churn, because of relatively low consumer loyalty and shoppers switching to other brands to manage their spend. Even the strongest brands loose up to half of their shoppers each quarter; it is a constantly leaking bucket. Therefore, it’s vital to focus on boosting penetration.

How do these successful brands attract so many shoppers?

1. They guarantee shopper satisfaction. This is non-negotiable in South Africa; a must-have rather than a game-changer. Products must meet expectations – and the evidence of this is the repeat purchase rate enjoyed by our five category leaders.
   
   
2. They reach shoppers in all channels. The easier shoppers can access a brand, the better.
   
   
3. They attract more shoppers – month after month. To retain a high level of penetration, brands need to win over the same number of new consumers on a consistent basis. This demands regular, year-round activation.
   
   
4. They fulfil all types of needs and occasions. The market leaders all have large product ranges, including different pack sizes and formats. This makes them attractive to all types of households – from small to large, from premium to economy buyers – and protects the brand if consumers reduce the volume they purchase.

These levers have worked exceptionally well over the last year. But what happens as inflation squeezes harder?

Brands in South Africa are facing the same economic headwinds as the rest of the world, with inflation squeezing shoppers’ budgets. Almost half of households (46%) say they are struggling, and 63% are extremely concerned about the economic situation. FMCG prices have increased dramatically, though currently shoppers are absorbing these increases by making cuts in other areas of spending.

Thus far, FMCG has proved extremely resilient – and historically, globally, shoppers have at least maintained FMCG spend even during times of crisis.

The at-risk categories

So far, South African consumers have found ways of continuing to buy key categories by adjusting their spend, reducing volume, or choosing different brands.

We uncovered the at-risk categories as well as other insights of our first year working with our consumer panel in South Africa. Our experts can help you understand the dynamics within your category, and how the retail landscape will change as inflation pushes shoppers to adjust their behaviour. Please get in touch if you would like to learn more.

This story is reflected across Africa and the Middle East, where country by country the brands that have convinced more households to become buyers have climbed up the rankings.

In Egypt, the number of brands with a declining number of consumer reach points (CRPs) is increasing, as shoppers are limiting purchase frequency across most categories. Potato chip brand Chipsy is the country’s most chosen brand, bought by more than 97% of the population, but its CRPs have dropped by 6% in the last year.

Schweppes is one brand bucking the trend, gaining momentum on both penetration and frequency through effective communication using multiple impactful celebrities. It has entered the Top 20 most chosen brands at no.11, following a 4.4% boost in penetration which helped to drive a 24% rise in CRPs.

2021 was a challenging time for FMCG in Kenya, with the dairy and foods categories performing best.

The most chosen brand is Supa Loaf, which has penetration of 80%. The top gainer in penetration is local home care brand Ushindi, which increased its shopper base by 14.2%. Also standing out is global personal care brand Pepsodent (+8.9%), which reduced prices to make toothpaste affordable, leading to significant trial.

The top ranking brand in Morocco is food brand Jaouda, which reaches a massive 99% of households. The most chosen brands are in the beverages and dairy categories, reflecting the prominence of these products in Moroccans’ lives. Innovation has proved key to recruiting new buyers, with newly-launched Be! Biscuit and King Cookies brands both going from 0% to more than 50% penetration in less than a year. Both brands have been well-supported by communication in their retail channels.

Maggi is Nigeria’s most chosen brand, while seasoning brand Terra is the biggest winner in penetration, almost doubling its shoppers with growth of 92% across the year. This propelled it up 56 places in the ranking of the country’s most chosen brands. In total, 56 brands moved up the ranking this year, compared with 42% in 2020.

The opposite is true in Saudi Arabia, with 44% of brands growing their CRPs compared with 46% the previous year. However, there are more brands enjoying growth than suffering a decline (39%). Brands appear to have moved away from the tried and tested method of deepening penetration as the main growth lever; the results suggest they may need to re-examine their strategies.

Dairy brand Almarai is the most chosen brand in the Kingdom, with a 2% year-on-year drop in CRPs, while Nakheel has gained most shoppers (+6.9%). Nescafe has entered the Top 25 for the first time, gaining five positions and increasing its CRPs 9% following product innovation that enabled it to capture emerging trends and new occasions.

2021 was a turbulent year for the United Arab Emirates (UAE), with the number of brands that grew their CRPs cut in half.

Dairy brand Al Rawabi is the most chosen brand, despite a 16% decline in CRPs, while Marmum – also in the dairy category – has gained the most shoppers (+8.7%). The most successful brands pushed the pedals of both penetration and frequency. Global fabric softener brand Downy increased its penetration 13%, despite a decline in its category, and is now bought by four in every 10 households in UAE; they also buy the product more often.

If you’d like to further build your understanding of consumers across Africa and the Middle East, you can watch this presentation on demand, or speak to one of our experts.

Price rises have also been compounded by other financial pressures hitting shoppers’ incomes, including lower salaries and new taxes, which influenced consumers to change their shopping habits.

Choosing cheaper

As pressure on household budgets intensifies, consumers in the MENA region are employing every possible rationalisation strategy to manage their FMCG spend. They have two main approaches: buy less, and pay less.

Buying less involves reducing the volume purchased of a product or category, buying it less often, or deciding to stop buying it altogether. Consumers seek to pay less by shopping in cheaper channels, switching to cheaper brands, and hunting for promotions.

This behaviour change is affecting different categories to a different extent. Those that are feeling the impact most strongly are declining faster or growing more slowly than average, and shopping frequency has also dropped.

The moderately-impacted categories are products that shoppers can possibly do without. These may grow, but will lag behind the total growth seen across the FMCG sector. Impact will be lowest on the categories that are most essential, where spend will either grow or remain stable.

With price-sensitive shoppers rationalising categories, sectors, brands and channels, manufacturers need to meet their needs while preventing them from leaving the brand or the category altogether.

Give shoppers a reason to buy

Price wars are hard to win. As consumers consider switching to cheaper options, brands must instead offer significant differentiation to show why they’re worth spending the extra money.

Innovation is the most sustainable and profitable way of gaining new shoppers, retaining existing shoppers and growing share of spend in tough economic times – but it has to be big.

Incremental innovations don’t work, as they can be copied easily, while shoppers need a powerful reason to switch to a new product or add something to their repertoire. This means brands have to be bolder and more disruptive. The innovation must be also be meaningful: offering something that is highly relevant and improves people’s lives.

One brand that has achieved success through innovation in the MENA region is Careem. Originally developed as a ride-hailing app, it has expanded to become a one-stop shop that handles food and drink deliveries, bus rides and anything else that involves getting people and products from A to B. The business was acquired by Uber in early 2020.

Create advertising that resonates

Brands that are able to build higher equity with consumers excel during tough times. It may be tempting to cut ad spend right now, but this will be false economy. Return on ad spend has increased during the pandemic: Worldpanel data shows that for every $1 spent on advertising brands in the ME region saw a return of $2.80, compared with pre-pandemic levels of $1.80.

Manufacturers need to use advertising and marketing to highlight the value of their innovations, and how they will benefit shoppers’ lives in the post-pandemic world.

Re-evaluate the promotions strategy

Promotions have been growing consistently across the MENA region over the last few years, and shoppers will continue to seek money-saving deals. However, it’s possible that governments will either put a cap on promotion levels or advise against excessive promotional activity to prevent bulk buying that leads to empty shelves.

Manufacturers need to work out which promotions provide the best value to the shopper, as well as determine how far they can increase their activity without eroding profitability.

Think about pack size

A number of premium, non-essential categories have benefited from offering smaller packs to keep shoppers within the category, allowing them to continue to enjoy a product while spending less. After the sugar tax was introduced, Coca-Cola found success in the MENA region through offering a smaller pack size – both smaller cans, and smaller bundles – giving shoppers a cheaper option while keeping hold of them.

Brands could also benefit from launching economy versions to prevent shoppers switching to cheaper competitors. Larger packs or bundles are gaining relevance, too, even in fresh categories such as fresh milk and sliced bread.

In Kenya, P&G has covered all bases by launching Downy in a 20ml sachet as well as larger 500ml and 1L packs, to suit all needs, make the product accessible to everyone, and encourage trial.

Drive availability

As shoppers visit stores less often, brands need to be present in the growing channels depending on their category. Modern trade has become MENA shoppers’ favoured option for saving money, and traffic is expected to continue to grow. However, brands shouldn’t limit themselves to modern trade stores; top-up missions are unlikely to go away, making smaller convenience formats relevant.

Discounters are likely to increase in popularity, with their fixed price points and heavy discounts appealing to cost-conscious shoppers.

Another way brands can stand out is to focus on delivering a fantastic in-store experience. Investing in point of sale (POS) and multiple touchpoints will all make a brand more memorable.

Target new and evolving occasions

Tapping into in-home occasions during Covid drove success for many brands. Baking mixes brand Betty Crocker successfully leveraged the growth of in-home snacking occasions in Saudi Arabia through a famous campaign – Kitchen for everyone – which aimed to get all family members involved in baking, having fun, and making memories. As a result it moved into the country’s Top 30 most valuable brands, and achieved 62.5% penetration.

Price rises are set to rise further in the MENA region as a result of the Russia-Ukraine war. Shoppers from all buyer groups will continue to look for ways to manage their budgets, with volume expected to reduce while spend increases. They will also shop less often, but buy more per trip. Inevitably, many will make tough decisions about what they can afford to keep in their baskets – cutting some products and categories out altogether. Manufacturers must provide a compelling reason to buy, while understanding and addressing any barriers to purchase.

If you’d like to discuss these findings, do not hesitate to contact our experts. To find out more, download the paper through the link at the right side of this page.

The majority of Algeria’s 5.67 million households* are medium to large in size, with adults aged over 35. They live in urban areas – mostly in the centre and east of the country – and belong mainly to the middle to low income households. When it comes to purchasing FMCG, 82% of buyers are in urban areas, and these contribute 83% of the total value.

Higher income households offer greatest growth potential

Targeting buyers from the two highest income groups, in particular those living in the east of the country, will prove the most profitable growth strategy – especially for brands in the personal care and home care categories. These households consume and spend the most on FMCG, by a very large margin.

Traditional channels remain key

Traditional trade is much more important in Algeria than other markets in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, with 100% penetration. Only 3% of total FMCG spend currently goes through modern trade channels.

However, harnessing modern trade will be essential for reaching the most affluent households. Traffic will also grow as people recognise that supermarkets, hypermarkets and discount stores offer good value and cost savings.

Perfumeries and beauty shops are popular options for personal care purchases, capturing 57% of the population, while 54% still buy groceries from souks and open markets.

Dairy and CSD lead the categories

Many categories are highly democratised in Algeria. Dairy and carbonated soft drinks (CSD) are enjoyed by consumers across the market, and make up the Top 5 of its most chosen FMCG brands.

The top three categories in terms of frequency are milk (bought on average 44.1 times per year), CSD (30.7 times) and spoonable yogurt (24.6 times).

Other categories still have plenty of room to grow, however – with creams, cereals and toilet paper among those to which many households have yet to be recruited.

Households seek to buy less and pay less

Inflation in Algeria is higher than other countries in the MENA region, and is expected to reach 7.6% in 2022, rising from 2% in 2019. This will put greater financial constraints on the population.

They are already making big efforts to manage their grocery budgets, and this is set to continue. A number of different coping strategies have emerged – including buying less, for example by shopping less often or taking certain products off the shopping list, and paying less, by seeking out promotions, or switching to cheaper brands and discounters.

As shoppers rationalise their spend, they will need to make difficult decisions about which products to put in their grocery baskets, and which to leave out. Some categories are more at risk of being impacted than others, in particular those that are:

• Non-essential to households’ daily lives
• Already bought less frequently, or by a lower number of buyers – such as cereals, chocolate spread and powder milk
• Expensive – including oil, laundry detergent and shampoo
• Purchased heavily by lower-class households, such as drinkable yogurt, pasta and cheese spread

Shoppers from all classes in Algeria are demonstrating rationalisation behaviour – reducing volume as spend increases, looking for deals and offers, and switching to cheaper products and channels. Manufacturers need to understand and address any barriers to purchasing their brands, as well as giving shoppers a compelling reason to buy, such as a significant point of differentiation. Brands and retailers must also determine which promotions provide the best value to their shoppers.

Worldpanel has invested in the new Algerian consumer panel as part of its commitment to expanding its footprint in the MENA region, in order to help brands, retailers and manufacturers understand how to win. Along with panels in Saudi and UAE, Worldpanel is now present in 16 African countries, representing 78% of the continent’s total GDP.

For more information about finding growth opportunities in Algeria, you can download our paper, or reach out to our expert team.

In response, consumers are reducing the size of their FMCG baskets. Kantar Worldpanel’s data also shows the impact of the financial squeeze reflected in drops in volume, value, frequency and spend per trip in 2021 compared with the previous year.

Different strokes for different folks

Kenya’s more affluent consumers have tightened their purse strings the most – spending 10% less in 2021 than they did in 2021 – possibly due to having a more prudent financial nature in uncertain times. The growing middle classes are remaining resilient, and have moderated their behaviour less.

Manufacturers must recognise the different ways in which people are coping with the changing economic landscape, and develop targeted offerings to ensure the needs of all types of shoppers are being met.

Consumers demand value from home and personal care

In the home care category, volume has increased slightly while value has dropped – indicating that Kenyan consumers are seeking value for money on the items they buy. We see a similar pattern in personal care, where spend per trip has dropped more sharply compared with before the pandemic than volume per trip.

This highlights a clear requirement for FMCG manufacturers to innovate value-driven products that address multiple usage occasions, together with the right pack and price offering. For marketers and brand owners, the priority should be driving greater brand saliency: consumers are likely to plan their shopping trips more carefully in advance in 2022.

In food, there’s stiff competition within consumers’ baskets as they prioritise the most essential food items for their families. Brands will need to drive consumption through innovative product offerings and engaging communications – especially around food items that are perceived as non-essential.

The need for better route-to-market models

With price increases potentially forming a barrier to consumer uptake, manufacturers need to take a fresh look at the efficiency of their route-to-market models to alleviate the impact.

In terms of channels, while international supermarkets are gaining in importance throughout the Kenya, neighbourhood supermarkets have strong potential to be harnessed as a way of reaching more consumers, and sales and marketing activities would be best activated in these stores. The contribution made by ecommerce to the country’s FMCG sales remains very small.

Download all insights through the button at the right side of this screen. Also get in touch with our experts for detailed information on how Kenyan consumers will respond to the changing FMCG landscape over the coming months, and how each FMCG category is likely to be affected.

Another big difference between 2021 and the previous year was that the growth in spend was largely driven by inflation, and an increase in grocery prices shoppers had to pay. FMCG volume sales were on the whole flat or in decline across many countries in AME, with purchasing starting return to pre-pandemic levels. Shopping frequency also dropped in all markets except for Egypt, Ghana and Kenya.

Spend grows across the region – with one exception

West Africa (Nigeria and Ghana) saw the fastest take-home FMCG value growth in 2021, due to inflation continuing to grow in double digits. This impacted grocery prices heavily. Inflation was highest in Nigeria, reaching 15%, which contributed to a 28.4% year-on-year price increase in the fourth quarter. Morocco was the most stable market, with inflation of 1.1% over the year, which was coupled with a healthy increase in GDP of 5.7%. The only market in which we witnessed a value decline was the UAE (-7.8%). This was driven by a population drop in the first half of the year, with the country largely dependent on expats (87% of households), many of whom left the country during the pandemic. We expect the population level to continue to pick up in 2022, with take-home FMCG spends rising in parallel.

A gap between food and non-food 

Looking at categories, the value performance of food and beverages was generally stronger than average, with growth of 8.3% and 5.5% respectively. Spend on non-food items grew much more slowly, with an increase of 2.9% in personal care and 2.4% in home care. 

Overall, spend levels were impacted across all socio-economic classes in the AME region, highlighting that more affluent households were also hit by the pandemic and rising food prices, and are as willing to compromise on what they buy and what they pay as shoppers from lower classes.

These trends highlight how crucial it is for brands in AME to get price and promotion right in 2022, with inflation continuing to rise, high uncertainty across markets, and shoppers having to compromise on their purchasing decisions. 

Download the deck with more insights through the button at the right side of your screen.

For more information on take-home FMCG performance in Africa & Middle East, or to request details of our price and promotion solution, please get in touch.

Brands are competing vigorously to stay in shoppers’ baskets. In this competitive landscape, it is essential for brands to know their buyers, their needs and the key reasons they are dropping certain categories and brands.

What were the key changes in shopping behaviour?

Non-Ramadan months clearly indicate a challenge in driving footfall. People shopped less often and spent less per trip in non-Ramadan months. There was also a drop in the number of categories in the Ramadan 2021 basket compared to the year before. Brands therefore need to work hard to increase purchases during these times, but this is challenging when there has been a gradual but consistent decline in the number of trade channels visited since January 2020.

Based on the 37 FMCG categories we currently track in Egypt

RAMADAN 2019: May – June

RAMADAN 2020-21: April - May

Channel behaviour change over time

The average number of touchpoints are on a continuous declining trend. This is a key worry for the FMCG industry overall.

What were people buying?

Data from our consumer panels in Egypt shows that the Canned Food and Household Cleaners categories grew the most, while Personal Care lost traction during the pandemic.

Fewer shopping trips means fewer touchpoints between manufacturers and retailers and shoppers. Successful brands must be present at the right place at the right time. Those that successfully position themselves as a “need to have” rather than a “nice to have” will avoid dropping out of shoppers shrinking baskets. And brands that use their products, packaging or promotions to differentiate themselves – rather than simply price – will ensure they stand out from the crowd.

If you would like to learn more about Egyptian consumer trends, please fill in the form below to download a deck with more insights, or get in touch with our experts. 

The new panel will measure the FMCG purchasing behaviour of more than 6,500 South African households at launch – the largest sample in the region. Covering all nine provinces, the panellists are representative of all socio-economic groups.

The digital capture methodology enables each panellist to provide continuous information about all their grocery purchases via barcode collection and in-the-moment trip records, using their smartphone. This reduces data lag and increases the robustness of the data collected. Other benefits include:

• Analysis by product, channel and retailer
• Reporting and segmenting by SKU
• Channel management tools to support retailer relationship discussions
• Data available 24/7 via Kantar’s Worldpanel data delivery and analysis platform
• Connecting the truth of purchase behaviour with what people think and how they choose products through bespoke shopper surveys
• A unique and complete view of consumers in South Africa, including all nine provinces and all socio-economic groups.

The new panel is part of Kantar’s ongoing investment to support client expansion in Africa, where it has been present for a decade. With the largest consumer panel presence of any market research company, it provides brands and marketers access to a wider set of markets, benchmarks, trends and insights. In addition to two panels in the Middle East, Kantar is now present within 13 African countries, representing 78% of Africa’s total GDP. These include its recent panel investments in South Africa, Ivory Coast and Ethiopia, consumer panels in Egypt, Ghana, Kenya, Morocco and Nigeria, as well as the commitment to expand its footprint to meet our clients’ demands in Algeria, Cameroon, Senegal, Tanzania and Uganda.

Kantar will build on the insights delivered through its new panel with its portfolio of expert solutions – bespoke advanced analytical services which support clients’ decision-making in key areas such as retail strategy, media investment and innovation. To meet the need for fast delivery, the data will be made available via Worldpanel’s data delivery and analysis platform, which can be accessed 24/7.

Idriss El Ganari, Managing Director Middle East & Africa, Worldpanel Division, Kantar, says: “South Africa offers plenty of opportunities for global and local FMCG brands to find new sources of growth, but only if you are able to understand shoppers and their rapid behaviour changes. With its size and diversity, South Africa really needed the right consumer panel to capture shopping behaviours from all types of households, income levels and ethnic groups. We are very excited to have successfully launched this new consumer panel in one of the most important African economies.”

Josep Montserrat, President, Worldpanel Division, Kantar, says: “This strategic approach will allow us to reinforce our understanding of shopper and consumer behaviour in the African continent, as well as our robust network of consumer panels across the world to provide a global context for brands wanting to grow at home or abroad.”

The South Africa panel connects Kantar’s wider African consumer panels with a consolidated global network of harmonised panel services in 50+ countries in Europe, Asia, the Americas and Middle East.

The first dataset for the South Africa consumer panel will be available in July with data for Q2 2021.

Stockpiling during lockdown helped drive dramatic growth for FMCG in 2020 as heavier basket sizes and more purchase occasions drove sales particularly in Food. Annual volume growth hit 28% for FMCG across the country.

The scale of stockpiling was seen in March 2020, when FMCG volumes grew by 18.9%, but performance declined in the final quarter of the year as concerns about inflation led to reductions in purchases.

The extent of the belt-tightening can be seen particularly among socio-economic classification (SEC) DE, where volume growth dropped by 6.2% in the final quarter of the year, well below the country average of 5%. The one exception was in the Accra/Tema region, which saw growth of 1.2%, helped by out-performance among DE shoppers.

Across the year, Beverage showed the biggest rise (up 34% and including a 0.1 rise in Q4), followed by Food (28%) and Personal Care (25%). Grocers and local stores were the key source of growth – up 29.5% by volume – as consumers set out to minimise time in crowded areas. By contrast, kiosk sales grew by 2.6% across the year but also took the biggest hit in the final quarter, down 27.2%.

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FMCG remained resilient during the lockdown but GDP contractions at the year end and rising inflation caused by currency movements have seen consumers tighten their belts.

The first three quarters of the year were a positive story, as consumers filled up on extra big shopping baskets to make every trip count. By Q4, however, basket size started to drop, hitting volume sales.

Overall year-on-year growth of 21% by volume was driven by more family time, with Food (up 21% year on year by volume) and Beverage (up 29% year on year) categories seeing the biggest uplift during the year. There was relatively tame growth for Homecare (up 15% year on year) and Personal Care (up 8% year on year).

Local retailers benefited as consumers chose to stay near home, encouraging wealthier groups to shop more locally. Volume sales in grocers and local stores rose by 33.7% across the whole year and kiosks also benefited from a 17.6% rise.

The fastest growth rates in local outlets in Nigeria were for ball foods, custard, edible oil and margarine.

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