Fresh turkey gained almost 100,000 shoppers compared to the same four weeks in 2019, while frozen crowns and joints of turkey gained 270,000 buyers alone.

Signs of in-home treating shone through in the month of the second full lockdown in England too with premium meats gaining momentum.

Fresh lamb continued a strong run of growth (+23% in the latest four weeks) with price cuts on lamb marinades proving popular, while smoked salmon registered an impressive +30% growth in the same period.

Andy Crossan, Kantar strategic insight director, said: “Avoiding a last-minute in-store turkey rush will be on many shoppers minds this year – especially given that many areas are still under tier three restraints.

“Premium cuts that also offer ease of preparation are well-placed while some consumers remain under tough restrictions and are unable to enjoy the out-of-home market fully. Shoppers are looking both for simplicity and flavour.”

Fresh whole ducks also grew by +26% in the 12 weeks to 29 November – providing more evidence that shoppers may look for smaller, more premium offerings while in lockdown and for Christmas.

Finally, treating as a trend has gradually risen throughout lockdown, with less consumers opting for food and drink for ‘health’ reasons in the home.

Marcelina Fedczyszyn, Kantar consumer insight director, said: “This typically tends to happen as we approach Christmas, but this year’s treating increase is a bit steeper than ‘normal’.”

Fraser McKevitt, head of retail and consumer insight at Kantar, said: “The three days before non-essential retail and hospitality closed on 5 November were especially busy, with grocery sales that week up by 17%.  November as a whole saw shopper frequency hit its highest level since the beginning of the pandemic, suggesting more confidence among people going into stores.  Those factors contributed to November being the single largest month ever for the supermarkets, with £10.9 billion spent over four weeks.  December’s numbers are likely to surpass that again, and we expect spend to be close to £12 billion in the month ahead, around £1.5 billion more than last year.”  

After a tough 12 months for many people, Christmas has given shoppers a much-needed cause for celebration.  42% of Britons said they are pushing to make this the best Christmas in memory, while over a third are planning to put up Christmas lights early because of the pandemic*.  Fraser McKevitt continues: “Many people have begun the countdown to Christmas 2020 already, using more time at home to go big on festive revelry.  Sales of turkeys, both whole birds and ready-to-roast joints, are up by 36% on last year, while more than £11 million was spent on Christmas puddings.  Shoppers spent 238% more on Christmas lights in the month to 15 November, suggesting that people are eager to capture the Christmas spirit at home.  However, mince pie sales are down by 8%, reflecting fewer opportunities to share a treat with friends and colleagues.”

Limited opportunities to drink in pubs and restaurants, as well as an early eye on festivities, pushed alcohol spend 33% higher than in the same four weeks last year.  Two-fifths of that growth came from spirits, with sales of cream liqueurs – popular Christmas tipples – more than doubling compared with 2019.

The other word on everybody’s lips at the moment is Brexit.  Shoppers, retailers, and suppliers will all be hoping that grocery price inflation, which is currently running at 1.4%, remains relatively benign.  The average British household has spent a record £4,206 on groceries so far in 2020, meaning that even moderate price increases could result in the need to balance household budgets next year.  

Online shopping has been one of the major trends of 2020, and this month more than six million households bought from a grocer via the internet, the highest ever.  Renewed lockdown protocols saw the share of overall market sales made online reach a record 13.7%.  Ocado demonstrated the trend, growing by 38.3% in the latest 12 weeks.  This period also fully covers the time since Ocado started selling M&S products, during which its share of the chilled ready meals market has tripled to just over 3%.

Waitrose increased sales by 13.2%, its fastest rate of growth since 2005, with sales of fresh meat and fresh fish rising by 25% and 16% respectively.  Its share rose by 0.1 percentage points on last year, and the retailer now accounts for 4.9% of the market.

Both Iceland and Lidl found success this month by encouraging shoppers to fill their trolleys, as Fraser McKevitt comments: “Just over a quarter of Iceland’s 21% growth came from the freezer aisles, with fruit, vegetables and household cleaning products also growing quickly.  With shoppers buying more completely across the store, the average trip to Iceland now totals £18.21, 44% more than a year ago.  Meanwhile, Lidl reached a new record market share of 6.2%, as sales grew by 13.9%.  More than two-thirds of the growth was from trips over £60, as coupons and offers on the Lidl Plus app incentivised customers to spend more in store.”

Co-op’s growth increased to 9.8%, with the convenience retailer holding on to a market share of 6.3%.  Aldi’s sales were up by 7.0%, with a 7.7% share of the market.  At Morrisons, increases both in-store and online helped to grow sales by 13.7%, gaining 0.2 percentage points of market share to stand at 10.3%.  Sainsbury’s share remained steady at 15.7%, with sales up by 10.8% in the latest 12 weeks.  Tesco’s sales rose by 10.4%, and Asda’s by 7.7%. 

*Based on Worldpanel Plus survey of 46,709 consumers Thursday 19 – Sunday 23 November

Growth rates peaked in Wales, where restrictions were tightest, up by 15% in the month to 1 November.  Fraser McKevitt, head of retail and consumer insight at Kantar, explains: “Welsh shoppers increased their spending by an average of £10 during the week when the ‘firebreak’ lockdown came into effect.  The following week, online shopping in Wales hit its highest ever level accounting for 16.2% of the market.  In Britain as a whole, a record 5.9 million people purchased groceries online in the month of October.”

Early evidence suggests that consumers in England are confident about getting the essentials during the new lockdown – which started on 5 November – even if the restrictions impinge on festive shopping.  Fraser McKevitt said: “While there was some uplift in Wales, the increased spending did not provide any evidence of stockpiling, and initial figures suggest no sign of panic buying in England either.  But one thing is always front of mind at this time of year – Christmas – and it seems many people sought to get ahead with gift buying before stores closed.  Between Monday-Wednesday last week, the three days before additional nationwide restrictions were introduced in England, toy and entertainment stores took more than double their share of pre-covid footfall*, and shoppers rushed to gift shops and fashion retailers.”

The prospect of spending less time out and about during winter means people are hunkering down with seasonal comforts and making the best of life at home.  Sales of scented candles, pot pourri and essential oils for diffusers have grown by 29% compared with last year.  Meanwhile premium own label products are up by £56 million this month.  The category consistently hits its peak in December, so this could be an early indication of more to come as we approach what is likely to be an unusual Christmas.  Halloween was different this year as well, with shoppers celebrating at home, rather than on the streets.  The same amount was spent on pumpkins as in 2019 – £9 million – but sales of sugar sweets were 2.3% lower in October as trick or treating was put on hold.

Fraser McKevitt continues: “Frozen food has been a hot ticket since the beginning of the pandemic, and sales have risen by 14% in the latest 12 weeks.  That follows a spike in sales of fridge freezers over the summer**, showing the desire for long-lasting provisions in the current climate.  Iceland has benefited the most from the trend, helping to grow its market share to 2.3%, from 2.1% last year.  Overall, the retailer’s sales were up by 17.9%, and shoppers didn’t stop at the freezer section.  More was spent in Iceland’s chilled and ambient aisles as well, meaning the average spend per trip was worth 44% more than in 2019, the greatest increase of any retailer.”

Ocado was again the fastest growing retailer, with sales up by 36.1%, increasing its market share to 1.7%.   Waitrose meanwhile grew ahead of the market, by 10.6%, and its share rose for the first time since 2017 to 5.1%.  Waitrose increased its online sales faster than any other grocer this period.

Morrisons led the big four, growing sales by 11.4%, and expanding its share for the fifth month in a row.  It now accounts for 10.2% of sales, helped by its The Best premium own label brand, which grew by 42%.

Sainsbury’s sales rose by 7.6% this period and its market share currently sits at 15.3%.  The retailer recently announced it would permanently close its fresh food counters, a move which reflects a market-wide drop off in the number of people using in-store butchers, delis, and fishmongers.  Fraser McKevitt comments: “The number of supermarket trips involving a visit to the delicatessen, meat, or fish counter has fallen by 33% in the past 12 weeks, with many operations suspended because of the pandemic.  But that doesn’t mean shoppers are snubbing unpackaged, fresh products altogether.  In fact, the first national lockdown saw record numbers of people buy meat from other sources.  Over two million households have visited their local butcher in the past three months, 100,000 more than this time last year.”  

Asda increased sales by 5.0% this period and it holds a market share of 14.4%.  Tesco, which grew by 9.1%, maintained its share at 27.0% and had success through both physical and online sales.  Lidl’s growth accelerated to 12.5%, with market share up to 6.1%, while Aldi’s sales rose by 6.6%, and its share fell slightly to 7.8%.  Co-op increased sales by 8.6%, but its market share dipped to 6.4%, while independent retailers accounted for 1.9% of the market, as sales grew by 15.6%.

* Findings based on Worldpanel Plus, Kantar's panel of 80,000+ British shoppers recording all retail purchasing in all retailers. Daily footfall share index Monday 2 to Wednesday 4 November vs pre-March.

** Findings based on Worldpanel Plus, sales of fridge/freezers in physical stores, 52 weeks to 6th September 2020.

• Amazon Prime Video secured more than half of all new SVoD subscriptions in the quarter driven by an increase in Prime Membership
• 12% of new subscriptions were switched, meaning they were taken by households who cancelled one SVoD service to make way for another, +2% point vs. Q1 2020
• Subscription slowdown continues – as just 3% of UK households take on a new subscription
• Netflix provides 4 of top 5 ‘most enjoyed’ shows
• AppleTV+ share is fairly flat at 2.7% of new additions in Q3

Fraser McKevitt, head of retail and consumer insight at Kantar, says: “Shoppers are moving a greater proportion of their eating and drinking back into the home.  This is likely a response to rising COVID-19 infection rates, greater restrictions on opening hours in the hospitality sector, and the end of the Government’s Eat Out to Help Out scheme.  Alcohol sales alone were worth £261 million more to the grocers this month than last year, with pubs, bars and restaurants limited by the 10pm curfew.”

Despite an increase in COVID-19 transmissions and tightening restrictions, there is only limited evidence of consumers stockpiling goods at a national level in the past month.  Fraser McKevitt continues: “The seven days from Monday 21 to Sunday 27 September were the busiest since March, with 107 million trips recorded, but that number was nowhere near the 175 million seen just prior to the first national lockdown.  That said, sales of toilet roll and flour rose by 64% and 73% during the week, showing that consumers were wary of potential new restrictions.  37% of households bought toilet roll in that time, compared to the more typical 25% the week before, meaning increases were down to a greater number of buyers, rather than people packing trollies.”

Online sales in the past month were up 76% on a year ago, with one in five households ordering groceries via the internet.  The proportion of sales made digitally remains unchanged from last month at 12.5%, suggesting that many shoppers are choosing to stick with deliveries as the pandemic develops.  Ocado has benefited from the trend, growing its 12-week ending sales by 41.9%.  Fraser McKevitt comments: “Ocado has increased the number of shoppers using its service in the latest period – the only retailer to do so – adding 22,000 customers.  Its new partnership with Marks & Spencer is no doubt part of the appeal.  Since it started to sell M&S products on 1 September, two-thirds of Ocado shoppers have ordered Percy Pigs at some point, including an introductory period when the famous sweets were included free.  Ocado’s share of the market rose this period by 0.4 percentage points to 1.8%.

“Waitrose is keeping pace with its own online offer.  Although starting from a relatively low base, it was once again the fastest growing retailer online this month.  Waitrose also increased sales through its physical stores, with overall sales increasing by 8.9%.”  

Lidl has been in continual double-digit growth since December, accelerating its rate in the past 12 weeks to 11.7%.  Iceland, which is marking its 50^th birthday in November, also had cause for celebration, as growth of 17.3% took its market share to 2.3%.  Aldi recorded growth of 7.8%, and currently holds 8.0% of the market.

Changing personnel was the major story for Tesco and Asda in the latest period.  Fraser McKevitt comments: “New Tesco CEO Ken Murphy took over the reins at Britain’s biggest supermarket in October, with positive news to report – Tesco maintained its market share year on year for the second period in a row.  It now holds a 26.9% slice of the market – backed by sales growth of 9.2%.  Frozen, an early focus for the retailer’s Clubcard-only promotions, was the single fastest growing food category for Tesco.  Asda, which welcomed new owners this month, saw sales grow by 5.4%, but its market share fell to 14.4%.”    

Morrisons also gained market share, up by 0.2 percentage points to 10.1% on the back of 11.5% growth, while Sainsbury’s increased sales by 6.8% and posted a market share of 14.9%.  The convenience channel, which was vital to shoppers early in the pandemic, has seen annual growth rates fall back in line with the market.  The single biggest operator, Co-op, held market share at 6.6%, with growth of 9.3%.  

Chilled fish – which had been out of the limelight during the COVID-19 crisis - saw stronger sales over the most recent four weeks, growing 7.7%, up from 6.9% in previous four weeks. Smoked fish and shellfish especially played key roles in this – together accounting for half of the gains for chilled fish, as people are increasingly choosing foods to consume in-home for health reasons.

Marcelina Fedczyszyn, consumer insight director, Kantar, said: “Eating for health reasons at home came more to the fore in the lead up to Eat Out To Help Out - consumers looking to get their ‘5-a-day’ played a key role in the resurgence.

“This will be vital to track as we head into the darker, cooler months when consumer choices are traditionally driven less by health and when there’s no longer an incentive to eat out.”

A total of 53.7 million more visits to out-of-home venues were made by Brits in the five weeks to 6 September compared with the previous five weeks, as consumers chose to treat themselves, spending more than usual.

“Consumers took the opportunity to indulge when dining out. Spend per trip increased for main meals despite the discount which came with Eat Out to Help Out,” explained Lucy Chapman, strategic insight director, Kantar.

Despite the surge in eating out, the impressive lockdown growth for fresh sausages (12.1%) and bacon (10.3%) continued throughout August. Another traditional favourite, fresh red meat roasts, continued on a solid run too, registering 11.3% sales growth in the latest four weeks, led by beef roasts attracting 220,000 more shoppers. Fresh lamb (10.5%) continued its recovery since the Easter slump, attracting more shoppers for mince, chops and steaks.

Attentions begin now to turn to the all-important Christmas season. Andy Crossan, strategic insight director, Kantar, commented: “Smaller, more intimate Christmas eating occasions await us this year as it stands, so planning purchases is likely to be key for many - especially older – shoppers.

“This could present more opportunities for frozen meats to play a role in saving shoppers from having to go in-store late in the Christmas season. More manageable, smaller cuts which proved popular for Christmas 2019 are likely to gain traction too.”

With $1 in every $5 spent on fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) coming from an environmentally conscious consumer, investment in sustainable innovation will help brands win a growing Eco-Active consumer group.

As the COVID-19 pandemic continues to put a focus on the environment, we find:

• Plastic waste is the second biggest environmental concern in the world.
• Eco-Actives, the group we identify as consistently working to reduce their plastic waste, has grown in number from 16% to 20% of global shoppers since 2019.
• One in five shoppers say that since the pandemic began, they have acquired more environmentally friendly habits, and 16% are focusing on more environmental initiatives.

Our data continues to suggest that innovation to reduce plastic remains an opportunity. We’ve observed that shoppers are highly conscious of the packaging they buy weekly, and it is top of mind when they consider how they can personally reduce their environmental impact. While shoppers have been checking fewer aspects of food during the COVID-19 pandemic, “ recycled pack” (+4% points) and “quality assurance” (+3% points) labels are being checked more than before, demonstrating the demand for a green alternative to waste plastic.

Environmental concern is personal

The survey of 80,000 consumers across 19 countries finds nearly half (46%) feel personally affected by environmental problems, however, it is other people rather than brand or media influencers encouraging them to be greener. 38% feel that those whose opinions are important to them are driving them to change, with children the most likely (50%) to impact behaviour towards the environment followed by friends (43%) and partners (41%).

In the most recent four weeks year-on-year sales growth decelerated to 8.0%, the slowest rate since April 2020. Fraser McKevitt, head of retail and consumer insight at Kantar, comments: “Grocery growth tailed off in August as the Government’s Eat Out to Help Out scheme got underway and people were encouraged to return to offices and resume normal routines. Diners’ confidence built throughout the month and footfall increased* during each week of the scheme, culminating in the final bank holiday Monday when dining out accounted for two and a half times greater share of consumer spend than the pre-Covid average.

"Fewer meals eaten at home meant consumers spent £155 million less in the supermarkets in the four weeks to 6 September compared with July. Alcohol sales dipped month on month, with wine down 5% and beer down 10%, as the scheme encouraged people to swap Zoom catch ups for their favourite bars and restaurants. The chance to see colleagues, friends and family in person again seems to have reignited personal grooming routines – sales of hair styling products were 17% higher in August than July, hair removal treatments were up by 11% and deodorants by 3%.”

Online grocery sales rose by 77% year on year in the past four weeks, bringing the cumulative increase in orders to £3.2 billion since lockdown began. Fraser McKevitt comments: “While online grocery growth is still impressive, it has slowed for the second month in a row and dropped back to 12.5% of total sales this month from a peak of 13.5%. This is not just about people going out to eat in restaurants, August also brought shielding to an end for many vulnerable and at-risk people.”

Ocado, which launched its partnership with Marks & Spencer’s to shoppers on 1 September, was the fastest growing retailer over the past 12 weeks, with sales up by 41.2% year on year. Its former partner, Waitrose, increased overall sales by 7.3% compared with last year, and Waitrose.com experienced the fastest year-on-year online growth of any retailer.

Amid a challenging economic climate, retailers across the board are finding new ways to deliver value for customers. Fraser McKevitt comments: “As we move out of summer and closer to the end of the Government’s furlough scheme, retailers are thinking about how they can help households manage their bills. Promotional activity is now back to the highest level since February 2020 and is focused mainly on straightforward price cuts, with shoppers spending £247 million more on these deals compared with a year ago. Meanwhile, multibuy deals are down £116 million over the same period.

“We expect loyalty schemes to become increasingly important in the months ahead. 26 million British shoppers hold at least one supermarket loyalty card, with the average person carrying three in their wallet. Lidl launched its ‘Lidl Plus’ loyalty app in the UK last month and Tesco, which runs the single biggest scheme with ‘Clubcard’, continues to launch new discounts through the programme.” Lidl increased its sales by 11.4% and Tesco by 10.5% over the 12 weeks and both retailers held market share year on year.

Iceland continues to benefit from the performance of frozen food this year and grew sales by 20.8% during the 12 weeks, achieving a 2.4% market share, up from 2.2% last year. Aldi increased sales by 10.0%, with its market share slightly down on last year to 8.0%. Aldi will be hoping its upcoming sponsorship of ‘The Great British Bake Off’ will help it build on the 8.7 million shoppers who already buy sweet or savoury home cooking items in its stores.

Sales at Co-op rose by 13.4%, but increased by more than double this rate in the North of England, where local lockdowns mean consumers are continuing to shop closer to home. Meanwhile, symbols and independent retailers saw sales rise by 31%. While shopper numbers are down by 2.3 million from the May-lockdown peak, those customers still visiting spent £131 on average over the 12 weeks, £24 more than the same time last year.

Morrisons sales rose by 12.9%, with market share up by 0.2 percentage points to 10.1%. Sainsbury’s and Asda’s sales increased by 8.0% and 6.3% respectively.

The who

Successful advertising relies on asking the right questions. The first is who to target. Of course, reaching the right audience is fundamental – even the best campaigns will fall on deaf ears if those ears belong to the wrong person. But who to target – and how – isn’t always clear. For most brands, the strategic goal of a campaign will be based on recruiting new buyers. To do this, it’s imperative to understand who buys what, when and why. Even where a campaign carries other objectives, how an ad affects shoppers’ decisions is the crucial question.

Consumer Media Measure (CMM), Kantar’s proprietary analysis, helps FMCG advertisers understand how media work, both together and separately, by analysing their impact on real purchase behaviours during and after campaigns. In turn this can inform the planning for future programmes so that brands learn from previous investment to keep improving sales.

The where

When deciding which channels to prioritise, the short answer is, as ever, it depends. Based on who the target is, and how we want them to buy, the best way of dividing spend across different platforms will vary. This is where the CMM comes in again. By analysing shoppers – and their spend – both before and after a campaign, the measure helps FMCG advertisers to understand how different forms of media really work and interact and the influence they have on actual purchases.

Magnifying media: how brands can thrive in new era of digital advertising, published today, uncovers how brands can measure how much advertising campaigns influence shopper purchases and attract additional buyers.

Read the report today, and join the webinar at 2pm on Thursday 10 September, when our experts will take you through the key findings of the report. You can watch the webinar on demand at any time afterwards.

Fresh cream is the fastest growing dairy category for the third consecutive period (up 44.3%). There has been an additional 54 million cream occasions during lockdown (36% growth compared with last year) which has mainly been driven by consumers aged 25 to 34. This growth is a result of cream being chosen more often as a part of desserts and main meals, with fruit and vegetables being the top sweet and savoury accompaniments to cream.

Ocado grows at 54% in the latest 12 weeks, remaining the second fastest-growing retailer behind Independents and Symbols at 61%. Convenience stores are still growing year on year, with Co-op’s dairy sales booming by 27.1% as shoppers continue to add more items to their baskets. However, value is starting to trail off in convenience retailers compared to previous periods, and Co-op’s share of dairy sales has has reduced by 0.4 percentage points, with the retailer now accounting for 7.4% of the market. We also see a comeback in the discounters, with Aldi having the fastest going share of the market (up 0.32 percentage points) as shoppers feel more comfortable to travel further as lockdown is eased. Online sales have grown again this period although at a lesser rate at 88.6%, in a sign that sales through the channel are starting to plateau. Despite this, one in four shoppers still bought dairy online in the last 12 weeks and the channel continues to gain share of the category. 

Non promoted sales are powering the growth of the market, with full price sales up 27% compared with last year, though promotions gradually make a comeback. Spend on deal has risen from 24% to 25% of dairy sales in the last 12 weeks due to an increase in temporary price reductions available in store. Volume deals continue to plummet, and declined by 20%, compared with 18% decline last period.

The fastest growing demographic group has become those with older dependents (Aged 45+ with a child over 16 years old living at home), whose spend is growing at 31%. This group has also grown in terms of share of spend (up 0.9% percentage points) and become a more important shopper in the market, accounting for 10.6% of dairy spend. Retired shoppers have also increased their spend by 11% this period compared with 8% in June.

It seems shopper behaviours are gradually returning to normal, with frequency of shopping declining less steeply than during lockdown. How these behaviours and channel choices change as lockdown rules ease will be essential to the future of the market.

Charlotte Scott, consumer insight director at Kantar, said: “While things are far from normal, the data shows a gradual softening of the more extreme lockdown trends in the grocery market.  The relaxing of rules across much of the country means shoppers are less inclined to stock up their cupboards with regular large trips.  That has seen average spend drop below £25 for the first time since March.  However, at £24, it is still a world away from the pre-Covid average of £19 per trip.  

“Although the current average of 14 shopping trips per month per household is lower than it was last month, it is higher than in April and May, when lockdown rules were much tighter.  So, while some consumers have shopped more often in the past month, the story varies in different parts of the country, with localised lockdowns and slower openings resulting in people making fewer trips in the North, the Midlands and Wales.” 

This period saw the introduction of mandatory face coverings for visiting shops in England.  The number of supermarket trips was two million lower than would have usually been expected in the week after the rule was adopted, and currently just over half of shoppers say they feel safe in stores.  That suggests the public may need time to adjust to the new regulations, and they now have to plan ahead for every shopping trip.  

One of the most significant lockdown trends, online shopping, reached another new record market share in the latest four weeks – with 13.5% of all sales now ordered through the internet.  Ocado has been a major beneficiary of this, and it also hit a new record this month, registering a market share of 1.8% over the past 12 weeks and growth of 45.5%.

Elsewhere, wider economic issues will continue to dictate how the market performs, as Charlotte Scott explains: “With the country officially entering recession last week, atypical behaviours are likely to continue.  During a recession we would generally expect shoppers to manage their spend more carefully.  Early evidence suggests that most are not yet choosing to trade down, with brands and premium own label lines currently performing well, however price cuts have increased compared with July as some people look for opportunities to save.”

August also marked the introduction of the Government’s Eat Out to Help Out scheme, designed to give a shot in the arm to the hospitality industry.  Early indications suggest that the initiative has been successful, with a significant uplift in footfall at restaurants, cafes and bars between Monday and Wednesday over the past fortnight.  The exclusion of alcohol from the scheme may make that a resilient category for the grocers.  Take-home alcohol sales over the past four weeks were up 28.3%.  

The past month has seen a renewed focus on health, with wellbeing high on shoppers’ agendas.  Charlotte Scott says: “People want to get back to their best after the long lockdown, and clean living is a priority again.  Over the past month, we saw sales of vitamins and minerals grow at 34%, while herbal teas were up by 19% and nuts by 21%.”  

In the latest 12 weeks all of the major retailers registered overall take-home sales growth.  However, all bar Ocado saw that growth slow compared with July.  

Morrisons was the fastest growing big four retailer, with sales up 16.0% driven by a particularly strong performance from its supermarket stores – it now accounts for 10.2% of the market.  Despite Tesco being close behind in terms of growth, it lost market share of 0.4 percentage points bringing it to 26.6%.  Sainsbury’s share now stands at 14.9%, losing 0.5 percentage points this month, while Asda lost 0.6 percentage points taking it to 14.3%.

Iceland was the second fastest growing retailer at 29.2%, its share increasing to 2.4%.  Meanwhile, Co-op increased its share to 7.1%, with growth of 22.4%.  Lidl successfully managed to hold its share steady at 5.9%, while Aldi and Waitrose both lost 0.2 percentage points taking them to 7.9% and 4.7% respectively.

Fresh lamb was the star performer meanwhile, as steaks, roasts, chops and mince all attracted more shoppers to drive growth of 38% for the sector in the four weeks to 12 July.

Jason Nixon, consumer insight director at Kantar, said: “Retirees are a key group for the massive growth of online sales. This bodes well for sectors such as lamb, which tends to be more reliant on older shoppers.

“Momentum has built nicely for fresh lamb. The downbeat Easter period led to a sluggish start to lockdown, but two consecutive periods of growth have given the sector a boost. Lamb commands a price premium compared with other meat types, and so it’s interesting to see too that premium own label sausages have maintained solid growth – up 31% this period.

“Chilled smoked fish - which is reliant on higher price points than other fish types - continued to grow strongly with sales up by 13% in the last four weeks too. It’s an important time for more premium options as family gatherings – where lamb plays particularly well – will hopefully start to ramp up as lockdown measures ease further.”

Pubs and restaurants began to reopen on 4 July, and subsequently nearly 700,000 fewer households bought meat, fish and poultry in shops in the week ending 12 July compared to the previous week. And as Brits start to venture more out of the home, some types of meals are starting to look different to what became the norm for lockdown.

“Lunch is the meal that saw the largest move back towards eating out in June, and this will continue as more outlets adjust to social distancing and reopen,” explained Marcelina Fedczyszyn, consumer insight director at Kantar.

Marcelina added: “When we’re not out, we’re returning to some of our favourite lunchtime options. A rise in consumption of salads and sandwiches compared with the previous months shows that we’re starting to look for quicker, easy-to-assemble options.”

Sliced cooked meats. a lunchtime favourite for sandwiches, registered a solid four weeks of sales, growing 12% compared with the same period last year.

• After a surge of 6 million SVoD sign ups during the 3 months to April, which covered the early COVID-19 lockdown period and launch of Disney, new subscriptions have fallen back to a more normal level, hitting 826k in Q2.
• Amazon Prime Video led in new sign ups, securing 45% share over the quarter, with performance particularly strong amongst first time SVoD subscribers, driven up by free trial promotions.
• 22% of new subscriptions were for Disney+, a fall from the 52% it achieved in its UK launch quarter
• Disney+ saw a steep rise in lighter users, reflective of many UK schools returning back during the second quarter.
• Overall subscription stacking edges down as consumers start to show signs of drop multiple platforms
• Netflix planned cancellation rate continues to fall, hitting just 2.2%
• Netflix continues to dominate in customer advocacy, with a Net Promoter Score of +46, but Amazon Prime Video sees a big increase vs last quarter, in a clear sign of progress in closing the gap vs. the market leader.

Netflix continues as the most popular streaming service for subscriptions, whilst Disney+ growth is showing signs of easing off, after a bumper launch quarter. Given Netflix’s wide reach across the British population, it is no surprise that it dominates the most enjoyed content list with Ozark the #1 series over the quarter. Interestingly, Money Heist, came in #2 despite being subtitled, highlighting Brits’ appetite for foreign language content, whilst the now infamous Tiger King made it into the top 3 for 2 consecutive quarters. The largest contributor to new SVoD subscribers in the quarter were Gateway subscribers, those taking out an SVoD subscription for the first time, contrasting with the first quarter, where stacked subscribers, those taking incremental SVoD subscriptions, were the single largest group.

It is no surprise that Q220 didn’t see a repeat of the huge SVoD subscriber boost seen in the first quarter, which had the highly unusual combination of Disney+ launching and the UK in lockdown for the majority of the period. Amazon Prime took the highest share of new subscribers in the quarter, with the increase in overall online shopping as a result of Covid-19 measures, likely helping to make Prime membership, and it’s free delivery system, a more attractive proposition to British consumers.

Netflix continues to lead the way in overall customer advocacy rates, but Q220 has seen a big increase in advocacy amongst Prime Video subscribers with Outlander, Little Fires Everywhere, Bosch and Star Trek Picard the key titles driving this performance.

Whilst most platforms have seen usage fall slightly in the second quarter, as life in the UK edges back to normality, Disney+ in particular has seen a notable increase in lighter users, as schools begin to return back.

Notes

Based on a longitudinal panel of 15,000 consumers and boosted by 2,500 new subscriber interviews each quarter, the service is designed to help the broadcast industry and investors understand the full consumer journey for digital video subscription services.

Kantar Entertainment On-Demand is delivered by the same team that provides the world’s leading mobile phone manufacturers with global mobile phone purchasing and usage trends. It is the only subscription service providing both quarterly installed base and new subscription market share alongside deep analysis on purchase motivations, including named content, customer experience, and diagnostics on ‘at-risk subscribers’ as well as guidance on acquisition and retention strategies. Find out more here.

Looking at the most recent four weeks, however, the picture is more nuanced, with signs that shoppers are embracing new freedoms and cautiously returning to their pre-lockdown behaviours.

Fraser McKevitt, head of retail and consumer insight at Kantar, comments: “As lockdown restrictions are gradually eased and non-essential retail outlets re-open, some consumers are slowly resuming their pre-Covid routines and shopping habits.  This meant year-on-year supermarket sales growth decelerated in the most recent four weeks to 14.6%, down from 18.9% in June.  However, we are clearly a long way off a complete return to normality.  Footfall was still 15% lower during the past four weeks and the average spend on a supermarket trip was £25.05, 35% more than the same period last year, as most people continue to eat more meals and snacks at home. 

“Despite pubs, bars and restaurants re-opening recently, more than half of consumers say they are still uncomfortable with visiting a pub and 42% with visiting a café or restaurant*.  As a result, take-home alcohol sales were still up by 41% this month as people were unable or avoided drinking out.  The cost of working from home is also starting to add up for many.  Shoppers spent an additional £24 million on tea and coffee during the past four weeks and £19 million on biscuits.  In comparison, sales of some products that were in huge demand as the nation entered lockdown in March, are now only marginally higher than last year – with healthcare up by 2% and household products by 3%.”

There are signs that shoppers might be growing more confident and travelling further afield for their weekly shop.  Fraser McKevitt explains: “Convenience stores were a lifeline for many people in the early days of the crisis, providing essential supplies close to home.  Sales from these types of stores are still up by more than a quarter year on year, but they attracted 2.6 million fewer shoppers through their doors than at the peak of lockdown in April.  Consumers are clearly growing more comfortable getting in their cars or taking public transport, as the average distance travelled to a grocer has gone up to 4.9km, a 10% increase from the April low**.”

Co-op, the largest player in the convenience sector, achieved a market share of 7.2% during the past 12 weeks, as its sales increased by 30.6% year on year.  Independent convenience stores, including those operating under names such as Spar, Nisa and Premier, grew sales by 59.5%.

The growth in online grocery sales continues and increased to 92% this month, marginally higher than the previous four weeks.  Fraser McKevitt comments: “Although restrictions have eased, more than one in five households still made an online order during the latest four weeks.  The channel now accounts for 13.0% of all grocery sales in Great Britain, which is up from 7.4% in March and reflects a significant increase in capacity by the grocers.  Ocado sales rose by 45.5% during the past 12 weeks, benefiting from its loyal customer base increasing their shopping frequency by a third compared with last year.  Ocado’s market share rose by 0.3 percentage points to 1.4%.”

The challenging economic climate hasn’t yet had a meaningful impact on the items shoppers are picking up in store and Fraser McKevitt explains: “Even with the uncertainty that many consumers are facing, branded goods, which are typically more expensive, are outperforming cheaper, own label alternatives and grew sales 20% this period.  In fact, it is the number one brands in each category that are typically winning share from rivals.  Of the retailers’ own ranges, it’s the more premium lines, such as Tesco Finest or Sainsbury’s Taste the Difference, that are growing fastest.  It seems shoppers are looking for small ways to treat themselves at home.”

Promotional activity at the grocers picked up in the latest four weeks, with 29% of sales including some type of discount.  Fraser McKevitt comments: “Retailers scaled back promotions at the start of lockdown as they prioritised serving as many customers as possible and keeping shelves full.  Now, they are starting to put the emphasis back on deals and collectively helped the average household save £45 on groceries this month.  Promotional levels are still behind the pre-crisis level of 31% but, particularly given that the 2008 recession led to shoppers seeking out more discounts, we expect the grocers to bring in more enticing offers to attract cash-strapped shoppers in the months ahead."

All of the big four experienced strong sales growth in the past 12 weeks, in line with the overall market trend.  Morrisons, up by 17.4%, grew ahead of the market and gained market share for the first time since 2015, now standing on 10.3%. Tesco sales rose by 15.1%, Sainsbury’s by 13.5% and Asda by 11.0%.

Iceland’s growth reached a new record high of 34.1%, and its market share was up from 2.2% in 2019 to 2.5% this year.  Over the 12 weeks, the total frozen food market has increased sales by 22%, the second fastest growing category behind alcohol.  Lidl sales rose by 17.3% and Aldi’s by 13.0%, with the discounters collectively holding 13.6% of the market.  Waitrose sales increased by 10.9% to hold a market share of 4.7%.

An update on inflation

Grocery inflation now stands 3.6%† for the 12-week period ending 12 July 2020. Prices have been rising since the 12 weeks to 1 January 2017, following a period of grocery price deflation which ran for 30 consecutive periods from September 2014 to December 2016. Prices are rising fastest in markets such as ambient cooking sauces, fresh bacon and canned colas while falling in fresh poultry, butter and bread.

*Based on Worldpanel Plus survey of 55,812 consumers Thursday 2 – Wednesday 8 July 2020

**Derived from Worldpanel Plus sample of more than 100,000 trips per week with store location based on postcode

Despite shoppers starting to venture outside more with the easing of lockdown, we are still seeing growth through more convenient retailers – Ocado and Co-Op are the fastest growing retailers in value terms over the last 12 weeks (53.4% and 32.5% respectively). Online spend is soaring, with growth of 71% in dairy over the last 12 weeks and 91% in the last four weeks in overall grocery. The major multiples also see online as the fastest growing channel within their portfolios, with this set to continue to grow as 2.1m more shoppers shopped online in the last 12 weeks compared with last period. Convenience, however, seems to have reached its peak in April and growth is now slowing.

The multiples are still the largest contributors to the growth of the dairy market overall. Despite its 7.8% growth ASDA’s share is now 0.2 percentage points behind last month, with a share position of 11.9% compared with 12.1% in May 2020. That said, the Leeds-based retailer continues to outperform the other multiples in its online channel, which grew 103%.

Shoppers continue to enjoy fresh cream, and it remains the fastest growing category in the last 12 weeks, growing 39.9% as dessert occasions prove to be popular among older demographics. Eggs have now surpassed butter as the second fastest growing category, and are growing 35.8% with the latter growing 30.8% in the last 12 weeks. This is due to the number and type of occasions which have moved in-home as shoppers continue baking and eating more breakfast and lunches at home.

Base sales continue to grow ahead of promoted sales and recorded even faster growth seen in the most recent period, with full price sales up 28% compared to last year as promotional spend reduces by 3%, a decline of £22m in cash terms. This step back in promotional activity is down to volume deals which have declined 18%, mainly through yoghurt and milk with sales via the Y for £X mechanic down 40% and 20% respectively.

The fastest growth continues to come from family groups, particularly older families (up 30%). The largest contributor to dairy’s growth is empty nesters, who hold 21.0% share of the market, but their growth has slowed compared with last month.

Belly pork meanwhile attracted 300,000 more shoppers in the four weeks to 14 June, as the sector grew strongly for the third consecutive four-week period, boosting fresh pork sales - which grew at 28% over the same period. Bacon grew by £27m in the latest four weeks – its performance bolstered by cooked breakfasts becoming more popular during lockdown.

Marcelina Fedczyszyn, consumer insight director at Kantar said: “Consumers are still looking for efficiency in cooking. Despite the rise in cooking from scratch, the average time taken to prepare a meal has not increased during lockdown. Cuts such as belly pork lend themselves well to consumers’ needs at the moment - they’re easier to prepare than other cuts and are eaten as more of a treat - consumers tell us they are more likely to consume belly pork when they fancy a change.”

Chilled fish meanwhile saw the start of a resurgence after a slow start to lockdown – chilled smoked salmon grew for the second four-week period in a row, attracting 400,000 more shoppers in the four weeks to 14 June compared with the corresponding period last year.

Andy Crossan, strategic insight director, Kantar, said: “The lack of counters in supermarkets will have no doubt played a role in the slow start for chilled fish – 64% of counter shoppers tell us that they are missing their presence in-store. Frozen fish has continued to fare well during this tough period, as people – especially families - have far more meals to prepare.”

Key to the performance of the market in future will be how meat, fish and poultry shoppers cope in a recession as lockdown life begins to ease. Andy commented: “We predict product choice will be the most prominent way meat, fish and poultry shoppers will manage the financial pressures of the recession that looms – especially as the early signs are that retailers will rely less on promotions compared to the last recession in 2008 and everyday low prices will be used more.

“Burgers were a big winner during the last recession so it will be interesting to see if the sector continues its lockdown form, especially as the out-of-home market begins to pick up.

Over 65s accounted for 27% of internet meat, fish and poultry sales in the 12 weeks to 14 June, up from 18% this time last year.

Shoppers continue to stay close to home, with convenience stores and online shopping both growing faster than other channels and attracting new shoppers. Online in particular performed strongly, with dairy spend through the channel growing 43%. The top performing retailers were Ocado and Co-op, which grew the fastest of the major retailers at 41.9% and 31.3% respectively. Co-op has also seen the largest growth in share over the last 12 weeks adding 0.2 percentage points to its position and ending the period with a 7.6% share of dairy spend. Nevertheless, the multiples still remain the largest contributors to the growth of the market. ASDA lost 0.5 percentage points in share, growing behind the market at 7.1%, and ending with a share position of 12.1% compared with 13.4% in February 2020. The retailer’s online channel has been outperforming that of the major multiples, but with it’s traditional stores falling behind.

The fastest-growing category in dairy is cream, which grows by 32%. However, the category remains fairly small, with just a 0.3% share of dairy - the same as last year. Butter still performs strongly growing 29.3%, with eggs not far behind at 28.6% and margarine at 26.4%. Margarine has seen the most turnaround, having been in 5.7% decline in February. This is likely due to an increase in baking and desserts as we indulged ourselves in the first month of lockdown.

More affluent demographic groups are powering growth in dairy, with ABC1 shoppers accountable for 62% of growth, whereas in February they were reducing their spend in the category by 14%. In contrast to the wider grocery market, dairy has seen the greatest contribution in spend coming from shoppers aged 45 to 65 with no children living in the home. However, when looking at shoppers’ dairy spend over the last 12 weeks, the most significant rise compared with last year is from families with children aged five to nine which spent on average £104 last year and £131 this year, and family groups in general, as shoppers are catering for more people and meals eaten within the home.

Promotions also continue to reduce compared with last year as the volume of dairy sales on promotion down in the last 12 weeks to 13.4%. This is also a decline on last year’s 17.3%. This is likely a result of retailers pulling promotions from the market to protect availability and because shopping in convenience stores gives fewer opportunities to take advantage of certain deals. The main categories behind this dynamic are milk and eggs, which have reduced the most. However, both categories continue to grow through base sales with eggs being the third fastest-growing dairy category in the last 12 weeks.

As we look to the future, with the phased re-opening of non-essential retail, we may see consumer behaviours gradually return to normal. The current projection is that take-home sales at the grocers could be up 12% over the course of 2020 as a whole, therefore dairy may well continue to see growth in the coming periods.

Sales growth over the four weeks to 14 June accelerated to 18.9%, up from 17.2% previously, with shopping patterns still disrupted compared with more normal times. The boost has been led by online sales, which have continued to accelerate, and convenience stores, which took £1.6 billion through their tills during this period. Despite the jump, grocers are still navigating a steep drop in the amount of food and drink bought on the go, which was down by a third* in early June. These numbers are not covered in today’s take-home sales data, but were worth £347 million to grocers** in June last year and so represent a considerable shortfall.

Online grocery’s strong performance continued this month, with sales rising by 91% over the four weeks. The huge increase in available delivery slots across the sector meant nearly one in five British households bought over the internet in the month to mid June, totalling 5.7 million shoppers. The cumulative impact of lockdown has helped Ocado to achieve its highest ever market share – hitting 1.7% over the past 12 weeks thanks to an industry-high sales growth of 42.2%. 

Convenience stores have become an increasingly important outlet for shoppers during the lockdown – be they independent retailers, which are growing at 69.3%, or the smaller formats of major outlets, for example Tesco Express and Sainsbury’s Local. Convenience stores accounted for 14.7% of all sales in the past four weeks. This is still considerably higher than normal levels, but it has receded from April’s peak of 16.3%. Co-op has reported strong sales as a result, with its network of local stores helping to accelerate growth to 34.5% over 12 weeks. Co-op’s market share now stands at 7.4%, representing its highest figure since March 2001.

While many of the major trends of the coronavirus period continued into June, the relaxing of lockdown rules is starting to ease the market back towards pre-pandemic shopping patterns. We’re still shopping less frequently but shoppers are gradually changing their behaviour. Households made 77 million fewer trips to the grocers in the latest four weeks compared with last year, but that’s still 19 million more than in May, reflecting the slight easing of government restrictions. Once in the shops, customers are continuing to buy more than usual, spending 42% more per trip than in June last year at £26.37 on average.

As pubs and restaurants remained closed, alcohol sales through the grocers continued to boom, growing 43% in the past four weeks. Elsewhere, good weather in June and shoppers getting the green light to meet friends and family outside their household meant picnic favourites were in high demand. Sales of soft drinks and chilled dips increased by 28% and 30% respectively. There were also signs of British consumers making the most of early summer – as ice cream sales rose by 57%, burgers by 44%, and sausages by 40%.

Safety while shopping remains a concern for many. Only 54% of people said they felt safe when visiting a supermarket or a convenience store***, with hygiene considerations impacting shoppers’ buying habits. Sales of loose foods fell by 6% over the past month. Heightened awareness of public health saw shoppers choosing pre-packed products, with retailers putting some lines in packaging and closing many fresh food counters. Consumers are also contemplating their domestic budgets. Two-thirds of shoppers are very concerned about the economic outlook**** for the rest of 2020, and efforts to tighten purse strings can already be seen in a preference among furloughed workers for budget own label lines and a move away from more premium products.

Sales at Iceland rose by 31.4% over the 12-week period. There’s plenty to celebrate for Iceland, which turns 50 this year and recently revealed a return to full ownership for Malcom Walker. The retailer now accounts for 2.5% of the market, matching its highest ever share which was recorded back in June 2000.

Meanwhile, Tesco sales were up by 12.1%, and Sainsbury’s by 10.2%, with both enjoying strong growth in their convenience estates and online operations. Asda increased sales by 6.3%, now taking a 13.9% share of the market, while Morrisons grew sales by 10.5%, with a market share of 10.1%. Lidl’s sales growth of 14.3% moved its market share to 5.8%, while Aldi’s sales increased by 8.0%, resulting in a 7.5% share. Waitrose sales rose by 8.6%, giving it a market share of 4.8%.

Notes to editors

* Kantar’s ‘Out of home’ panel records food and non-alcoholic drink purchasing, wherever it is bought and consumed, that is not part of a take-home grocery shop. Data is collected from a panel of 7,500 consumers who record purchasing via a mobile app. The on-the-go sales referenced here is purchasing at grocers only in the 4 weeks to 7 June 2020, derived from weekly delivery of data.

**Kantar’s ‘Out of home’ panel 4 weeks to 16 June 2019

***Findings based on continuous Kantar Shopper Satisfaction study conducted by Worldpanel Plus. More than 50,000 trip reviews submitted by shoppers each week covering all UK retailers.

****Based on Kantar LinkQ survey of 1,912 respondents conducted 6 June 2020

Understanding consumers to find growth 

Our Brand Footprint ranking of the most chosen homecare brands uncovers the innovators in the market, and the continued impact of the Mrs Hinch effect. The report covers 2019, and while this pre-dates the current crisis, the fundamentals of brand growth are more relevant than ever as we emerge from lockdown. 

Dairy products are ever present in most consumers’ lives, and shopping baskets, with 94% of households buying the sector in an average week. Being part of such a diverse category, often co-dependent on other food and drinks brings opportunities and challenges, and to find success it’s essential to be alert to wider consumption trends. 

Understanding consumers to find growth

Our Brand Footprint ranking of the most chosen dairy brands uncovers the role of the discounters on the market and the rise - and rise - of dairy alternatives. While the ranking covers 2019, and therefore predates the current crisis, the fundamentals of brand growth are more relevant than ever for FMCG brands as we emerge from lockdown. 

Get your copy and discover:

• Examples of how dairy brands have responded effectively to changing patterns of consumption
• How dairy brands are growing through providing a low-sugar snacking option
• The impact of shoppers’ rising environmental concerns and attitudes around health
• The rise of dairy alternatives, and how brands have navigated this disruption
• Inspiring examples of brands using the five levers of growth: more presence, more categories, more targets, more moments, new needs

Read the report today and sign up to the webinar to hear directly from our experts on how brands can find growth, regardless of the disruptions that come their way.

• Register for the webinar
• Read the report
• Explore the Brand Footprint dataset

A ranking uncovering the most chosen brands in Homecare is also following soon (18 June).

Burgers (up 51.6%) and sausages (up 47.4%) have registered huge growth rates in the four weeks to 17 May, with combined sales up by £40m. A massive four weeks for processed meats was helped immensely by the buoyancy of the bacon sector (41.6%), which is benefiting from consumers turning to more exciting options for breakfast and lunch.

This continued strong run for processed meats sits alongside the impressive growth of sales in butchers (300,00 additional shoppers) and online retailers – with the latter attracting 5 million meat, fish and poultry shoppers in the latest four weeks reflecting the fact many are buying locally or seeking online deliveries.

Andy Crossan, strategic insight director, Kantar, said: “We’d typically treat ourselves more when eating away from the home, therefore it comes as no surprise that a large amount of consumers are treating themselves with barbecues and processed meats during these tough times.”

17 million more barbecues were held in the four weeks to 19 April compared with the same time period last year - generating an extra £70m of spend in the process. Andy continued: “Given this happened even before the bumper period of sunshine in early May, we can expect to see even more al fresco dining, with gatherings starting to return as lockdown travel measures are eased, and outside space remains vital during social distancing.”

As well as dining outside, our lockdown behaviours continue to evolve – with hot meals growing at almost double the speed of cold meals at lunch time. Andy continued: “Steak dinner occasions have nearly doubled during lockdown, so the signs are there that consumers are bringing their out-of-home consumption behaviour into the home – which is much needed for the industry while the profitable food service sector is still largely out of commission.”

Four fifths of in-home food servings are being consumed for enjoyment purposes – showing significant growth importance compared with the same period in 2019. Familiar favourites are the key to sustaining modest growth within fish too, as cod (growing 15.3%) and haddock (up 14.5%) have both seen strong growth in the last four weeks. Promotions, meanwhile, continue to play a diminished role, with only 25.3% of volume sold on deal for meat, fish and poultry in the four weeks to 17 May - compared to 32.3% in the same period last year.

Andy continued: “How consumers continue to respond during this difficult economic time will be vital to understand. The last recession showed that health tends to play less of a role in consumers’ choices when budgets are tighter, and we’re certainly seeing evidence of that so far.”

Join the Kantar MFP team on Tuesday 16 June at 2pm for our webinar examining our meat, fish and poultry shopping and consumption – register for your place now.

Understanding consumers to find growth

Our Brand Footprint ranking of the most chosen beverage brands uncovers the key trends at play in the market. The report covers 2019, and while this pre-dates the current crisis, the fundamentals of growth are more relevant than ever for beverage brands as we emerge from lockdown.

Get your digital copy and discover:

• How brands are leaning into their healthy credentials a year on from the sugar levy
• The new flavours giving brands the taste of success
• Routes to expanding your brand across categories or reinventing the category altogether
• How brands have tapped into Brits’ moderating their alcohol intake
• Inspiring examples of brands using the five levers of growth: more presence, more categories, more targets, more moments, new needs

Understanding consumers to find growth

Our Brand Footprint ranking of the most chosen health and beauty brands uncovers the disruptions at play in the market and the tension between natural beauty and science-based efficacy. The report covers 2019, and while this pre-dates the current crisis, the fundamentals of brand growth are more relevant than ever for health and beauty brands as we emerge from lockdown.

Get your copy and discover:

• The long-term disruptions facing the market long before COVID-19, and how brands have navigated them
• How the tension between natural and scientific approaches is playing out
• How brands are adapting to changing perceptions of beauty through their products and advertising, and standing up for issues or under-represented sections of society
• Inspiring examples of brands using the five levers of growth: more presence, more categories, more targets, more moments, new needs

Understanding consumers to find growth 

• 52% of new subscriptions were for Disney+, despite the service only launching 24^th March
• Almost half of all Disney+ subscribers signed up for an annual subscription, demonstrating the effectiveness of the £49.99 pre-order offer.
• Tiger King beat the Mandalorian as the most cited content enjoyed, even amongst Disney+ subscribers
• Netflix dominated in customer advocacy, with a Net Promoter Score of +46, far higher than its competitive set
• 21% of Britons purchased a new video subscription, with an average of 2.3 per household
• Access to back catalogues proved a key differentiator, creating challenges for those brands without wide ranging content

While Netflix continues as the most popular streaming service, findings show that Disney+ is the rising star of Video on Demand (VoD). Despite only launching in the UK in March, over half of new subscriptions in the past three months have been for its service. Stacking services is also popular; 55% of new Disney+ subscribers were stacked, meaning they already held at last one other VoD subscription.

By contrast Netflix is the top driver of category growth, with 44% of its new subscribers only accessing VoD for the first time. The service also has the highest level of customer satisfaction in terms of the variety of TV shows it offers, the amount of original content and ease of use. All three of the most recommended series over the last three months – Tiger King, Ozark and Stranger Things – are Netflix exclusive. Original content and an extensive back catalogue has also driven significant growth for Disney+; 40% of subscribers cite The Mandalorian as their reason for joining the service.

Dominic Sunnebo, Senior Vice President at Kantar, Worldpanel Division, comments “As more UK consumers turn to streaming for their content needs, it’s clear they want a wide range of content, with Netflix and Disney+ the clear winners. With over half of VoD subscribers happy with the value for money subscriptions offer, this move towards stacked services is likely to continue.”

With the average VoD household in the UK subscribing to 2.3 services, there is still room for growth. 44% of UK households do not yet have any VoD subscription, and 2.1 million with multiple services, plan to cancel at least one in the next three months. Disney’s pre-launch which offered an annual subscription for a reduced £49.99, generated almost half of its total subscriptions today.

Sunnebo continues: “COVID-19 has no doubt driven the short term-gains for subscription services, but with so many planning to cut their subscriptions in the coming months VoD brands need to adopt new marketing strategies to stem the flow. Disney’s pre-launch special was a perfect example of how successful this can be, with almost half of its customers signing up to its annual subscription offer.”

Based on a longitudinal panel of 15,000 consumers and boosted by 2,500 new subscriber interviews each quarter, the service is designed to help the broadcast industry and investors understand the full consumer journey for digital video subscription services. The UK launch of Entertainment on Demand follows the U.S. launch in March, which highlighted the intensity of competition within video on demand streaming.

Additional findings from the research reveal:

• Apple TV+ sees its highest levels of engagement across Smartphone and Tablet, but lower than competition on TV – this highlights Apple’s focus and challenge on driving Apple TV hardware sales to enable viewership
• Amazon Prime Video subscribers are impressed with its variety of TV series and ease of use, but are less happy with the lack of new release films available
• 1 in 5 Now TV customers plan to cancel the service, highlighting many see the platform for a way to access specific content, rather than a long-term subscription
• Almost 1 in 5 new VoD subscriptions were triggered by the purchase of a new Smart TV, a demonstrable sign that partnerships with TV brands will be key to enabling higher overall penetration
• Customer advocacy and satisfaction increases across all platforms over time, meaning the onboarding experience is crucial to ensure long term retention

Kantar Entertainment On-Demand is delivered by the same team that provides the world’s leading mobile phone manufacturers with global mobile phone purchasing and usage trends. Entertainment On-Demand is the only subscription service providing both quarterly installed base and new subscription market share alongside deep analysis on purchase motivations, including named content, customer experience, and diagnostics on ‘at-risk subscribers’ as well as guidance on acquisition and retention strategies.

Fraser McKevitt, head of retail and consumer insight at Kantar, comments: “The most recent three-month period now includes both the pre-lockdown rush to the shops in March, and eight weeks of stay-at-home advice from Government – a combination which has resulted in the fastest growth in take-home grocery sales for over 25 years.  While these are bumper figures, it remains true that the overall picture for some grocers will be less positive, as supermarkets continue to feel the impact of a considerable reduction in on-the-go spend on meals, drinks and snacks.  Those categories usually add up to £1 billion* over the course of 12 weeks and they aren’t included in these numbers.”

In the latest four weeks to 17 May, take-home grocery sales growth accelerated to 17.2% year on year as the Government announced the first stage of easing lockdown restrictions.  Fraser McKevitt comments: “In the most recent four weeks, the trend towards fewer, larger shops that we saw in April broadly continued.  Shoppers visited the supermarket 3.5 times per week on average, meaning 100 million fewer trips overall than the same month last year, and increased their spend each trip to £27.41 – nearly 50% more than they did during normal times.  

“People have been working their way through their store cupboards over the past couple of months and some will now be spending a bit more on each visit to the supermarket to replenish supplies.  The greatest rise in spending has been among families with children over the age of 16 living at home, reaching £618 on average this month compared with £545 last May, as they continue to cater for more people living under one roof and compensate for meals not eaten at work, school or college, or while socialising with friends”.   

Some of this spend has been directed online, and shoppers trying to make use of delivery services when they can have increased digital sales by 75%.   Fraser McKevitt comments: “Online shopping now accounts for 11.5% of all grocery sales, gaining more ground and attracting more new shoppers in 2020 than the channel has in the previous five years.  The retailers have done a brilliant job of reacting to a sudden spike in demand by increasing their online capacity, and it’s meant that nearly one in five British households ordered groceries online in the most recent four weeks, 1.6 million more than this time last year.  And it’s not just groceries experiencing a boom – people missing their favourite restaurants and wanting to treat themselves have pushed takeaway deliveries** up by 250% year-on-year.”

“While the gains made by online shopping are unlikely to be sustained at these levels, the crisis has certainly accelerated the move towards online.  The grocers have attracted a new group of customers, in particular older demographics, and we expect some of them may continue using online services and enjoying the convenience that home delivery provides."

Consumers are taking their first tentative steps out of the full lockdown and the number of people visiting bricks-and-mortar shops began to increase ever so slightly in the week leading up to 17 May, following the relaxation of some measures by Government on the previous Sunday.  Shoppers made the most of parks and warm weather to enjoy picnics with their households and socially distanced catch ups with one other person, helping to boost sales of chilled dips by 22%, crisps by 28% and carbonated soft drinks by 25%, during the course of the four weeks.

Thursday 7 May, the day before the Friday Bank Holiday to mark 75 years since VE Day, was the biggest shopping day of the month and £488 million was spent on take-home groceries.  With pubs and restaurants still closed, people made the most of the sunshine at home and sales of frozen confectionery and alcohol were 40% and 50% higher than last year respectively.  Barbecue weather for many may have encouraged shoppers to spend £17 million more on burgers and £24 million more on sausages year on year.

Looking ahead, Fraser McKevitt comments: “Shoppers and retailers are now thinking about what the impact of a less restrictive lockdown will be, and a phased re-opening of non-essential retail and the out-of-home food and drink sector will have a significant impact on grocery sales in the coming months.  However, with plans for reopening the hospitality sector still uncertain, we are currently projecting that extra meals, snacks and drinks consumed at home will mean take-home sales at the grocers could be up 12% over the course of 2020 as a whole.”

An update on the grocers

All ten major supermarkets and the combined group of independent retailers increased sales in the 12 weeks to 17 May.  However, some of these gains will have been offset by a decline in ‘on-the-go’ purchasing, including breakfasts, lunches and snacks as well as any sales to businesses or schools.

Online specialist Ocado saw sales rise by 32.5%, with its market share increasing to a new high of 1.6%, up from 1.3% last year.

Shoppers staying closer to home and avoiding queues at large supermarkets benefited both Co-op, up by 30.8%, and independent retailers, up by 63.1%.  Co-op reached 7.0% market share, a level last achieved in 2011, while the 2.5% of sales taken by independent grocers was last seen in 2009.

Iceland climbed to a 2.4% share of the market, a proportion of sales it last held in 2000, as sales increased by 28.6% over the 12 weeks.  Meanwhile, sales at Tesco rose by 12.7%, Sainsbury’s by 12.5%, Asda by 6.5% and Morrisons by 9.8%.  Lidl, Aldi and Waitrose saw sales rise by 16.5%, 10.4% and 12.5% respectively.

*Kantar’s ‘Out of home’ panel records food and non-alcoholic drink purchasing, wherever it is bought and consumed, that is not part of a take-home grocery shop.  Data is collected from a panel of 7,500 consumers who record purchasing via a mobile app.  The on-the-go sales referenced here is purchasing at Grocers only. 

**Kantar’s ‘Out of home’ panel also covers takeaways and deliveries. The data referenced here on deliveries refers to the 4 weeks to 19 April 2020.

Fresh cuts which satisfy a variety of meal types have prospered this month as the nation adjusts to very different ways of shopping during lockdown.

Mince (+38.1%), breasts (+35.8%), sausages (+24.8%) and burgers (+19.3%) have all recorded huge volume growth figures within fresh meat in the last four weeks.
Conversely fresh lamb volume dropped by -18.3% in the four weeks to 19 April, as traditional larger gatherings weren’t possible for Easter – where Lamb normally succeeds – which affected the purchasing by older, more traditional shoppers especially. Convenience stores (+18.4%) and butchers (+44.2%) volumes have both benefitted in the last four weeks from shoppers switching their attentions to staying more local to buy fresh meat, while online (+44.3%) has surged due to both a large increases in shopper numbers and increased purchasing volumes on each trip.

Nathan Ward, MFP business unit director, explains: “Shoppers have settled into a new pattern of purchasing as lockdown has progressed – opting for cuts which offer the best flexibility for in-home cooks. “This will have at least in part been influenced by retailers simplifying their ranges. We saw a near 40% drop in the number of different fresh beef products purchased in one of the major retailers alone this period. “The event of Easter just wasn’t possible in its usual sense this year, as extended families were not able to get around the dinner table and enjoy it in the most traditional way – a big family meal. Simplicity has been key for Easter performance this year – as larger gatherings weren’t possible, consumers opted for whole chickens over lamb.

April was the sunniest on record according to the Met Office, which enticed consumers to make the most of their time outside, with volumes for sausages and burgers both increasing.
As out-of-home lunches have transferred in to the home, sliced cooked meats haven’t fared as well as other meats – with volume down by -0.8% in the last 12 weeks.
In chilled fish, only battered and breaded chilled fish have enjoyed growth as shoppers look for ease in assembling meals during the lockdown period.

Nathan explains: “Haddock and sea bass are shining lights in an otherwise tough period for fish, as the sector may still be feeling the effects of stockpiling – when 1 million kilograms of fish fingers were sold in the week to 22 March alone.”

Commenting on the whole industry, Nathan adds: “Looking ahead, the timings of lockdown measures easing will play a key role in how the whole industry performs ongoing. Lightening restrictions on travel may give bigger supermarkets a boost, but the longer our movements are restricted, the more we’ll crave to replicate at least some of the out-of-home experience.”
In line with this, and after a slow Easter for roasting joints, the launch of the ‘Make It’ with beef campaign led by British levy boards will look to boost the sector – with the campaign aiming to inspire consumers to create restaurant-style meals at home.

For any queries, please contact Nathan.Ward@Kantar.com or Andy.Crossan@Kantar.com

The annual ranking, which focuses on the long term performance of brands, includes a special analysis on how the biggest brands are faring during the current pandemic, with early signs showing that they are winning in relative terms.

Key findings include:

A shift in favour to the top 25 global FMCG brands

• 424 billion brand choices were made throughout the year, representing a 2.6% increase in CRPs (Consumer Reach Points) compared to 2018.
• Global brands grew CRPs by 2% in 2019 compared to zero% growth in 2018, but this wasn’t enough to beat out local brands which grew CRPs by 3.1% around the world.
• Global brands now account for one in three (34.1%) brand choices around the world, while local/regional brands account for two in three (65.9%) of the brands placed in shopping baskets.
• The biggest global brands responded best to the challenge posed by local brands in the past few years, showing their most successful growth rate than in any previous Brand Footprint. 20 of the top 25 (80%) ranked brands achieved growth in 2019, compared to 48% in 2018.
• The top 50 Global brands accounted for 15.5% of all brand choices made in 2019 and accounted for 24% of the growth in items purchased.
• Three top 50 brands (Pond’s, Vim and Brooke Bond) achieved a global penetration gain of 1% or more – meaning an additional 14 million new customers each. Every 0.1% penetration gain globally is an extra 1.4m shoppers.

Top 10 most chosen brands globally 

Source: Kantar’s Brand Footprint report 

More brands than ever chosen over 1 billion times

• There are now 40 brands around the world that are placed in consumers’ shopping baskets more than one billion times per year. In addition to the 22 Global ‘billionaire brands’, the number of local billionaire brands has grown from 14 to 18. All 18 are either Indian or Chinese.
• Five global brands joined the billionaires club: Brooke Bond, Head & Shoulders, Kinder, Heinz and Oreo.
• Coca-Cola remains the world’s most chosen brand on the planet, picked from the shelves over 6bn times during the year; followed by Colgate in second place (chosen 4bn times) and Maggi in third (3bn times).

India a key lever of growth

• In the latest ranking India was the country that contributed the most growth for 13 of the top 25 ranked brands. This compares to 8 of the top 25 in 2018, demonstrating the nation’s increasing importance to brand success.
• The unique shopping habits of Indian consumers become more evident in 2019, with FMCG brands being bought more often across the country and in smaller quantities.
• Homegrown brands like Patanjali and Dabur increased their nationwide penetration in 2019, challenging the dominance and growth of leading market players and underlining the global popularity of natural and ayurvedic beauty products

Sector winners and losers

• Across all FMCG sectors competition got tougher. Overall just 46% of brands achieved CRP growth in 2019 compared to 47% of brands in 2018, 49% in 2017 and 52% in 2016.
• CRPs in the dairy sector grew by 0.7%, with global brands losing market share to local brands for the second successive year.
• The food sector grew by 2.7% during the year while market share between global brands and local brands remained unchanged at 27.6%/72.4%.
• In the Beverage sector growth by global brands outperformed growth by local brands. As a result global players increased their market share to 38.4%
• Coca-Cola gained momentum for the first time since 2013, now picked from the shelves over 6.0 bn times in a year, with a much-improved performance.
• The health and beauty sector was the fastest growing category by CRP growth with an increase of 6.1%. Local brands benefited slightly more from the growth compared to global brands. Global brands now account for 59.6% of brand choices down 0.6% vs 2018, a second successive loss of share. 

 

Find out more

To learn more about Kantar’s Brand Footprint, explore the data and request more information, please visit www.kantar.com/brandfootprint.

Watch the webinar here.

 

 

Notes for editors

About Kantar Brand Footprint: Kantar’s annual Brand Footprint study is based on research from 74% of the global population; a total of one billion households in 52 countries across five continents—covering 85% of the global GDP. As part of the study, Worldpanel tracks more than 22,900 brands across beverages, food, dairy, health and beauty and homecare.

With relaxed lockdown rules and warm weather over the weekend of 15 May, it’s perhaps no surprise that the number of trips to physical stores increased. Our Channel Solutions Director and Daily Trips expert, Simon Quirk, reveals more.

On Monday 11 May, a new roadmap for England’s lockdown plan was shared. With this came an easing of some restrictions, including more time outside and the re-opening of garden centres. Combine this with this weekend’s sunny weather and you can perhaps understand why the nation increased the number of trips to physical retail stores by 25% on Friday 15 May and Saturday16 May (vs 8 May and 9 May). The larges t trips shift by far was from DIY and Garden centres (+70%) who now hold a significantly greater share of retail trips than before COVID-19.

We also increased our trips to Pet Stores (+30%) and Food & Drink Specialists (+10%) but that’s not all, Cafés and Restaurants began rising upwards from a low base (+3%). Potentially showing the appetite is there as this channel tentatively re-open premises for take-away items.

Clearly a mixture of circumstances has driven us to the shops this weekend. With even hotter weather forecast this week, it will be interesting to see how this evolves.

Real shopper behaviour, on a daily basis
Want to know more? Please get in touch with Simon Quirk to hear how this daily data can help increase your shopper understanding across a range of physical retail channels.

We have also seen shoppers remaining close to home, and sales in convenience stores grew over the last 12 weeks as shoppers turned to more convenient solutions. Both convenience stores and online retail attracted new shoppers albeit with mixed performance among these retailers. The top performers were Co-Op and Ocado, with the fastest growth out of the major retailers at 21.1% and 25.2% respectively. Co-Op has also seen the largest share change, up 0.6 percentage points. Nevertheless, the multiples continue to be the largest retailers in terms of dairy sales and contribute the most to growth of the category. That said, ASDA lost 0.7 percentage points of share and is growing slower than the market overall, at 2.9%. Its core supermarkets have taken a hit whilst the retailer’s online channel has been performing well. However, the retailer has no convenience channel to fall back on, in response to shoppers’ changing behaviours.

This period butter is the fastest-growing category, up 16.1%. Eggs, cream and cheese were also among the top-performers, all growing more than 15% compared with last year. Perhaps this could be a result of more home baking. Sales of sugar during the same time period were up 46% and butter, another staple baking ingredient, is likely to have followed suit.

We have seen the fastest growth in dairy produce coming from pre-families and families in the last 12 weeks, with the former spending 23.5% more compared with last year. In addition, younger and middle families have grown 15.2% and 15.6% respectively, with this a result of more children staying home as schools remain shuttered, and students moving home from university. These same demographic profiles are also the reason butter has grown so much; growth from four-member households remains the fastest at 29.6%, especially those households with two or more children.

Whilst most categories, except for fromage frais, are in growth year on year, promotions seem to have taken a downturn. Volume sold on deal has reduced from 16.5% last year to 14.6% in the same 12 weeks this year. This is because retailers pulled promotions from the market to ensure availability of certain items. Temporary price reductions seem to have been affected the most, with sale volumes down 7.6%. Most affected by this move were eggs, where deals were cut back 6.8%, but the category grew, but despite this, sales grew as eggs brought in new shoppers, up 10.4% compared with the previous year.

Keeping a close eye on consumer behaviours over the coming weeks will be key for grocery businesses as forecasting and scenario planning becomes more important during this disruption. Look out for next month’s data release where we see how behaviours change as some lockdown restrictions start to ease. 

• The impact of COVID-19 on brand choice
• 2019 in numbers
• The ranking of the Most Chosen Brands globally
• The success of bigger brands
• Success stories from global and local brands around the world

Sign up for the webinar on 20th May and get a closer view on growth opportunities for your brand in the FMCG market.

10 am (UK time)

4 pm (UK time)

The top performers among the retailers included M&S, Lidl and Ocado, which grew the fastest, while Tesco contributed the most to growth (£30.7m). That said, the supermarkets’ share of the dairy market shrunk, with Sainsbury’s the only retailer managing to hold its share flat. Lidl took the lead with the strongest share gain of 0.6 percentage points year on year. The discounters were also the fastest-growing channel, taking an extra £45m of spend year on year (12.7%), continuing the growth we’ve seen over the past year (9.1%).

The fastest-growing categories in dairy were cheese (up 11.0%) and cream (up 11.0%), which have both seen consistent growth over the last 52 weeks. However, milk grew 4.2% and was the second largest contributor to growth in the last 12 weeks, turning around its performance over recent months. Sitting behind this performance is the growth of long-life milks, which outperformed fresh milk once again (up 26.5%) and saw one of its largest uplifts for more than five years as shoppers stocked up.

Trends seen in the overall grocery market resonated in the dairy sector, with London being the key region of growth – with spend in the Capital up 11.7%, almost double its yearly growth rate 6.1%. Pre-families are the shopper group which has seen fastest growth, up 15.1% in the last 12 weeks compared to 6.6% growth in dairy spend overall.

As lockdown looks set to continue for the foreseeable future, it is possible that we could see continued high demand in the market. As shoppers run out of fresh food, they will increase their top up shops and dairy may gain more significance within consumers’ repertoires as they look to cater for more meals at home.

It is crucial for manufacturers to understand shopper and consumption behaviour through this time as shoppers stocking up could result in those products being picked up less frequently during the rest of the year, whilst for others growth may well continue. With more of us at home, could fresh milk see a continued rise in consumption as hot drink occasions move in home? And what will the impact of lockdown be on breakfast yoghurts, given these are three times more likely to be carried out of the home? 

Fraser McKevitt, head of retail and consumer insight at Kantar, explains: “Grocery retailers and their staff have been rightly praised for keeping the nation fed and watered during the coronavirus pandemic. People are spending more time at home and eating fewer meals out of the house, which has led to a strong growth in take-home grocery sales. But social distancing also means that expenditure on other categories like clothes, food bought on the go and general merchandise will have been considerably lower, so for some retailers, the overall picture will be more modest.”

Year-on-year grocery market growth of 5.5% over the past four weeks is noticeably slower than the 20.6% recorded in March. Nevertheless, sales this month were still £524 million higher than they were in April 2019, a sizeable increase. The rise is primarily down to changing habits, as people adapt to a new way of living, for example the number of lunches eaten at home has nearly doubled under lockdown*. However, for the grocers the increased sales will have been partially offset by a fall in on-the-go food and drinks sales, which were worth more than £350 million in April last year**.

On average, households shopped only 14 times for groceries over the past month, a record low and down from 17 in more normal times. A drop in frequency was matched by a corresponding uplift in the amount spent on each trip to £26.02 – easily the highest figure ever recorded by Kantar and £7 greater than last year. Friday and Saturday remain the most popular days to go shopping, but only just. As social distancing measures disrupt the traditional working week, the proportion of trips made Monday to Thursday has increased, making it hard for shoppers to find quieter times to avoid others.

Shopper satisfaction*** with supermarket trips is beginning to grow and is now back at February levels, having fallen by 38% as the nation entered lockdown because of frustrations caused by busy stores and empty shelves. Most notably, public appreciation of staff working on shop floors and tills reached record levels this month, and is 13% higher than before the crisis started.

People heeding Government advice to stay home saw demand for online grocery shopping soar. Fraser McKevitt continues: “Retailers’ efforts to increase their online capacity are clearly working, with shopper numbers up by a quarter. Online sales now account for 10.2% of overall grocery, versus 7.4% last month, with the greatest increase among older shoppers. Although not traditionally big users of e-commerce, over-65s spent 94% more on deliveries than they did a year ago.”

Large format supermarkets continue to supply the majority of Britain’s food and drink, but convenience stores, whether independently owned or run by the major grocers, are thriving as people shop closer to home. Fraser McKevitt explains: “Convenience stores increased sales by 39% in the latest four weeks, now accounting for 16.3% of the market compared to 12.4% a year ago. It should be noted, however, that this rise may be offset by the downturn in on-the-go consumption, which will have had a disproportionate effect on convenience shops.”

Retailers were unable to rely on typical Easter and spring staples this year, instead adapting to changing shopper habits. Fraser McKevitt comments: “A look at different category data gives an insight into life under lockdown. Traditional Easter treats like Easter eggs and hot cross buns took a hit, as people couldn't celebrate the holiday with family and friends. Despite the sunny weather, sales of sun cream also fell with people unable to sunbathe in the park or plan a long weekend away. However, shoppers are finding new ways to enjoy themselves while staying home. Baking products continue to see strong growth, with sales of suet up by 115% and sugar by 46%. Over 40% of consumers say they are doing more home baking now****. Meanwhile alcohol sales also rose, as the nation replaced pub trips with virtual socialising.”

An update on the grocers

In the 12 weeks to 19 April, all ten major supermarkets increased take home sales as shoppers firstly stocked up in preparation for lockdown, then fell into their new routines. These increases will have been partly offset by the reduction in other sales, such as lunchtime and on-the-go snacking.

Co-op’s market share rose to 6.7%, up from 6.1% last year as sales grew by 20.0%. Independent and symbol retailers, such as Spar and Londis, also benefited from changing shopping patterns, with growth of 40.5%. Meanwhile online specialist Ocado grew by 19.4%.

Spending at Sainsbury’s was 8.4% higher than this time last year, and 7.2% higher at Tesco. Morrisons and Asda saw increases of 4.3% and 3.5% respectively. At Iceland sales rose by 16.6% and at Waitrose by 9.4%. Finally, Lidl sales increased by 14.8% and Aldi saw growth of 8.8%.

"There’s no doubt about it, consumer and shopper behaviour has changed in significant ways over a very short time period, and everyone has an opinion about how and why. Of course it’s worth looking at what the actual data is telling us before jumping to conclusions. 

We’ve seen the headlines about bumper sales of groceries during March, with many Out of Home outlets facing enforced closures and shoppers looking to cater for an additional 500 million meals at home.  However, it’s worth taking a step back to look at what happened just before lockdown to help us better plan for what might happen next.

Looking at our read of the Out of Home market during March, we saw a surge in occasions which peaked in the week immediately prior to lockdown - up by 57% year on year. This surge was driven mainly by an increase in shoppers choosing delivery options.

What’s perhaps most interesting is that in the week prior to lockdown, 440,000 of the shoppers who purchased food for delivery had not done so in the six months prior.

Out of Home shoppers have been quick to adopt delivery in the build up to lockdown.  The big question is whether this habit will stick or if over time tighter belts will force more in home purchasing. And as some cafes and quick service restaurants tentatively start to re-open, how will purchases at these outlets rebuild?"

Download our infographic from this page, or get in touch to find out more about our Out of Home service.

Nathan Ward, Business Unit Director, MFP, explains: “We’ve seen a huge uplift in volume sales as people look to feed their families in these uncertain times. The last four weeks are key to the performance of the market. Chilled fish, for example, saw a 6% rise over the past 12 weeks, but a 20% increase in the last four weeks. This trend is mirrored in fresh primary meat and poultry where the 9% growth over the past 12 weeks is surpassed by a 27% increase in the last four weeks. This isn’t a result of excessively big shops and stockpiling large quantities, but by more shoppers making more frequent trips to buy these categories. Fresh primary meat and poultry saw almost a million more shoppers over the four week period compared with last year and a 17% increase in trips – equating to 11.9 additional store visits. This was reflected in processed meat and poultry which saw 1.1 million more shoppers and 11.2 million more trips.”

Ward continues: “Shoppers have made sure they have the right products in the home to suit their needs, such as options for different meals, as well as for batch cooking and freezing. This has an impact on what we’re buying – mince has been the strongest performer within primary meat and poultry, with volume sales up 42% compared with last year. Mince has a wide appeal across life-stages and fits into simple meals that the whole family can enjoy, ticking a lot of boxes for consumers. Similarly, the versatility of poultry has also been a draw for shoppers, with breasts, legs and wings showing strong growth of 35% on last year. Processed meat and poultry has seen 20% volume growth over the past four weeks, turning around a previously challenging picture for the sector. Over the past 12 weeks, processed lines are in 6% growth, with the tried and tested meal solutions driving that performance. Additionally, simple family favourites have seen strong volume uplifts over the four weeks, with bacon, sausages and burgers all seeing the strongest growth for many years as shoppers return to what they know and what is in stock.”

Fish also saw a turnaround in fortunes, with value and volume decline last month turning into strong growth this period. Volume sales grew by 12% over the 4 weeks. Chilled fish has seen a slower growth than meat and poultry, with much more modest increases in trips (up 2.7 million) and shoppers (up 380,000), but with the average shopper buying 9% more by volume over the last four weeks. Ward continues: “Fish has seen strong growth, with favourites salmon, prawns and haddock all growing ahead of the market. The smaller challengers in the market have seen strong short term growth accelerate, with tuna and sea bass seeing volume growth of more than 40% in the last four weeks. Natural fish remains a vital category, but added value, breaded and battered lines are the fastest growing sectors over the last four weeks, as shoppers buy into the sectors which provide quick, easier meals. Natural fish has not performed as strongly over the last four weeks, and is in decline over the past 12 weeks, with a strong performance from salmon offset by declines in sales of cod and basa."

Shoppers’ behaviour has been hugely volatile over recent weeks, sparking unprecedented growth for the MFP categories. Keeping a close eye on what consumers are buying, storing and using will be key to forecasting demand and scenario planning. Look out for our next data release in four weeks’ time where we uncover how our behaviour changes as we settle into the first month of lockdown?

"As consumers we all saw it, all felt it - the frustration of empty shelves as we anticipated an inevitable period of lockdown. We blamed. We pointed the finger at those people the press told us were ‘stockpiling’.  

Kantar then revealed that you were more likely to be contributing to the empty shelves than you thought - purely by going to the shops a little more often than normal. And I don’t blame you, I did the same. 

But in doing so we put more demand on the system than Christmas, and that takes months of planning - it’s no surprise there were empty shelves. 

Sure, there were some categories and brands that felt this more - the ones you couldn’t see when out shopping - but the vast majority of food and drink saw increased sales. Because in that week, that pre-lockdown week, we all were worried about what was going to happen next.

Large, established categories, like baked beans and dry pasta, saw sales at double the usual levels. Liquid soap? Triple. The impact was huge.

Human instinct 

Concern and preparation for what is going to happen next is a very human instinct, and now the industry is asking itself that very same question whilst faced with the challenge of managing supply with variable demand over the coming months.

We then went into lockdown; a new experience for all but the highest of at risk groups. At least the majority of us were doing it in our reasonably well stocked homes - stocked with a range of things we thought we would need now and in the future. This has never been better illustrated than by the extra week’s worth of grocery sales seen in March.

At this point some things were more clear to us than others. We knew we’d be at home a lot more, for example. Within the industry, amongst the chaos, predictions were made – some of them not so bad – but margins of course matter.  

We’d normally be out, we’d normally have less time, we normally felt a little more stability with our incomes. These times are different and normal rules don’t apply - ‘lockdown norm’ isn’t just a case of scaling up more normal times. And it’s evolving week on week.

Never before had so much been consumed at home in seven days - a near doubling of in home lunch occasions in that week being an example of the challenge faced. This will be a bumper time for supermarkets, as long as they can suitably anticipate, respond to and facilitate demand.

The typical currency for attempting this task? Sales – recent and past. However, whilst it wasn’t a hard and fast rule, by and large we actually consumed less of the things we’d stocked up on – far less when you consider the increased amount of time spent in the home.  

In simple terms – much of the extra week’s worth of product purchased in March, still exists deep into April.  So purchasing isn’t in itself a good predictor of what we will then do (and need to replenish), making it a headache to manage supply during these few months. Particularly given stocks are high in the home of some items even now.   

The biggest known unknown

The biggest unknown of course in early lockdown? We've no idea how long it will last for – all we know is that it will be “at least a further three weeks” - and given recent shopping experiences, many are worried about how to keep stocks high enough for the duration.

Further, philosophies are changing so rapidly – for example whereas pre-lockdown we made more effort than ever to go out for supplies, in the last few days we’ve made nearly as much effort to avoid doing so to maintain social distancing. 

Most recently we’ve seen the largest baskets growing, footfall dropping, and demand for online shopping going through the roof. These are all symptoms of the jostling between our household’s requirements and the safety of its members.

What will I need, what do I want, what do I have, what can I house and how can I manage that equation with minimal contact with the outside world? That’s the fascinating interplay currently in the industry, and it will continue to be so throughout lockdown, into a transition period and beyond. 

Understanding the balance of all these factors is the only way to ensuring the right things, in the right quantities, arrive in the right places.

That’s hard to do well. What makes it harder still is just how quickly things evolve – as more knowledge of COVID-19 is uncovered and digested, which guides the strategies of shoppers as much as it does the government. We’re currently absorbed by ‘lockdown norm’, whatever that is, and for however long it may be, but already minds are starting to move towards exit strategies and transition periods.

How to manage supply and demand through monitoring human behaviour

We have a challenge to humanity. COVID-19 attacks humans, we respond as humans.

Monitoring (and anticipating) human behaviour and sentiment, therefore, is how the industry can best manage and facilitate our demands and requirements.

That goes for pre and post lockdown period(s), as well as any transitions in and out thereof. There’s likely to be a few, if not proposed, then realised.

The challenge of anticipating and managing supply and demand in such ‘unprecedented times’ (I was really hoping to avoid that phrase) will run deep into next year."

Contact us to find out more about our COVID-19 Impact Forecasting service.

£2bn additional take-home spend

The out of home market is almost entirely shuttered, meaning in-home meals are replacing our workplace canteens, coffee shop sandwiches and Greggs plant-based sausage rolls.  We've all been stuck for 45 minutes two metres behind someone in an interminable supermarket queue looking to stock up for these additional meals at home. The shelves are still bare in places, and the temptation is to pick up products you never knew you needed. March 2020 saw an extra £2 billion of grocery purchases, resulting in 24% sales growth and almost one extra store visited each week in the search for toilet paper or hand sanitiser.

Top of the sales growth list are frozen and canned goods. Low down the list, and behind the overall growth in the market are fresh foods and snack categories; biscuits, salty snacks, confectionery and soft drinks. 

Does consumption match spend?

A question I'm often asked now is “what is happening to all this extra purchasing?” and “has consumption demand changed?”

Consumption of canned food is growing but currently slower than the overall rate of in-home eating. In week one of lockdown we did not consume our usual level of canned foods, and over the first two weeks consumption of dry pasta was flat.

Our cupboards are therefore now substantially fuller of some stock foods - as perhaps consumers are preparing for a prolonged lockdown period. So, we have simply brought forward this purchasing, and if the current consumption rates continue then future purchases will be delayed. 

"The chocolate effect"

There are some cases where current purchasing is translating directly into consumption. Snacking and consequently snacking categories are on the rise, and growing strongly. Historically in times of economic uncertainty and low consumer confidence, snacking grows - sometimes called “the chocolate effect”. Another example is home-baking which is in strong sales growth. Consumers are no longer time poor, so bread and cake baking is on the rise.

What is clear is that consumption behaviour has and will change rapidly, and that it has never been more important to track behaviour in both spending and consumption closely. Forecasting demand requires analysis of the three key moments of decision making; purchasing, storing at home, and consuming. Retailers and manufacturers which learn and adopt the new rules will be the winners in the new fast-changing environment.

From April 2020 Kantar's usage insights will be available on a weekly basis to give manufacturers and retailers fast-turnaround data to inform decisions in these ever-changing times. If you’d like to find out more, contact us.

60% of people getting involved in DIY over the next few weeks are going to do some painting inside the home, 40% are planning to get the garden ready for warmer weather, and 27% of people will be painting sheds or fences.

Joanna Parman, strategic insights director at Kantar, comments: “Spring is always a popular time for home improvements and getting gardens in order. This year, as we are forced to spend more time indoors, people are looking for ways to keep the boredom at bay and also to make their homes places that they and their families can enjoy.  With the government advising people against moving home during the current lockdown, it’s likely that a number of consumers are taking the opportunity to renovate their existing properties – a case of can’t move, improve.

“We expect this increased interest to have significant impact on an industry where sales from bricks and mortar shops alone amount to £4 billion annually – with the potential to attract a new generation of shoppers and drive investment in online stores and delivery services.”

Generation game

For many, restrictions on movement have freed up time to do jobs that they’ve been putting off for a while.  Joanna Parman comments: “More than two thirds of people who delayed a DIY job last year did so because they didn’t have time.  With holidays cancelled and pubs and restaurants closed, 40% of us are planning to do a DIY job we delayed doing last year.

“Young people are more likely to be turning their hand to DIY for the first time as a way to pass the time as college and university courses are put on hold and large numbers are furloughed by employers.  Half of 18 to 24-year olds will be doing a DIY job because they have got time to fill, 25% of them fancy a change and 30% feel like they have more money to spend on DIY now.  Interestingly, environmental issues haven’t gone away for young people during the crisis and 60% of them would still consider the sustainability of a product before buying.”

Joanna adds: “Young people have limited resources, and activities like DIY tend to lose out to other priorities like spending on living costs and socialising.  Retailers will be watching closely and considering how they can maintain their custom once life starts to return to normal – improving their own green credentials could be one way to do that.”

Is the future online?

With non-essential stores closed, consumers will need to consider what they can achieve with the supplies that are available.  Joanna Parman explains: “We all have to stay at home as much as possible at the moment so it’s good news that many people (41%) already have the tools and materials they need to complete their tasks, while 25% can at least get started before stores re-open.   

“Crucially, 80% of people would choose an online delivery service to get their supplies while shops are closed.  This reflects how seriously the public is taking advice about social distancing as well as a broader trend – most shoppers, and particularly young people at 37%, find traditional, large DIY stores overwhelming and would prefer to shop for tools and materials on the high street.”

Trigger-unhappy?

If you work from home at least once per week you will have 11 fewer personal care occasions per week. Extrapolated out to the large swathes of the public now working from home, you can see how this adds up to a huge effect on how, when and why we use health and beauty products.

In addition, a quarter of all health and beauty occasions rely on the ‘getting ready for work’ trigger. That translates to 225 million occasions in any given week which are now potentially at risk.

Potential for growth

While some personal care occasions are at risk of disappearing from routines entirely across the segment of conusmers who are now working from home, at the same time change brings opportunity and some categories may see an increase. For example:

• With 14 million haircolouring appointments now going unfulfilled, will women turn to DIY colouring at home?
• Given our heightened awareness of hygeine, it's likely our handwashing habit will continue, giving a boost to other categories like hand creams.
• Will at home ‘pampering’ and ‘self-care’ drive an increase in bath products, masks, moisturising and nailcare? 
• How will cosmetics fare? Will video conferencing become a new trigger? 
• The online channel will most likely come to the fore while physical stores are closed, with social media, consumer reviews and websites playing a more crucial role than ever.

Real consumer behaviour

What is more important than ever at this time is that the critical decisions brands are making are based on real behaviours grounded in the reality of consumers' daily lives. 

Get in touch if you’d like to find out more about how our usage service gives a realistic view of personal care routines and how they change over time. 

Fraser McKevitt, head of retail and consumer insight at Kantar, comments: “It has been an extraordinary month and social distancing measures have had a profound impact on all our daily lives – from the way we work and socialise, to how we shop and care for our loved ones. Retailers and their staff have been on the frontline as households prepare for an extended stay at home, with grocery sales amounting to £10.8 billion during the past four weeks alone – that’s even higher than levels seen at Christmas, the busiest time of year under normal circumstances.”

While week-on-week sales were growing strongly at the beginning of the month, it was on Monday 16 March that the public headed to the shops in unusually high numbers. Between Monday 16 and Thursday 19 March, 88% of households visited a grocer, making five trips on average – adding up to 42 million extra shopping trips across four days.

Growth has been primarily driven by people making additional shopping trips and buying slightly more, rather than a widespread increase in very large trolleys. The average household spent an extra £62.92 during the past four weeks, equivalent to adding five days worth of groceries. Shoppers in London, where the outbreak is reported to be a few weeks ahead of other regions, increased their spending the most, up by 26% during the month. Fraser McKevitt comments: “It’s inevitable that shoppers will add extra items to their baskets when faced with restrictions on their movement and possible isolation if one of them becomes unwell, but many families are also adjusting to having more mouths to feed. Those with children over the age of 16 spent £508 this month on average, £88.13 more than they did in March 2019 – a trend that likely reflects students returning home from college and university.

“With restaurants and cafés now closed, none of us can eat meals on the go any longer and an extra 503 million meals, mainly lunches and snacks, will be prepared and eaten at home every week for the foreseeable future. Those already missing their favourite haunts have been stocking up to recreate trips to the pub with friends over apps like Houseparty and FaceTime – boosting alcohol sales by 22%, an additional £199 million in the past month. Purchasing of food and drink items for store cupboards rose by 28% during the past four weeks and by the same again for frozen goods.”

Convenience stores appeared to benefit from people shopping more often and following guidance to stay closer to home. Collectively, smaller branches of the major retailers and independently-owned outlets increased their share of spend to 13.3%, growing sales by 30% compared with the same four weeks a year ago.

Grocery spend online was 13% higher than the same period in 2019 and Fraser McKevitt comments: “The average online basket size surged to £81.88 this month, over £6 more than in March 2019. Government advice may have been to get groceries delivered if possible, but limited delivery slots meant that only 14.6% of households received an online delivery in the past four weeks, up from 13.8% in March 2019 but probably well below actual demand.

“Most of us still relied on the full-size, bricks-and-mortar stores operated by Tesco, Sainsbury’s, Asda, Morrisons, Waitrose, Aldi and Lidl. They took 76% of spend through their tills in the past four weeks, with sales 19% higher than March 2019.”

Looking ahead, Fraser McKevitt comments: “We expect restrictions on movement and relatively full grocery cupboards will mean the incredibly high levels of shopping trips made in March will drop off over the coming weeks. Regular trips to smaller local stores are likely to continue, as people avoid travelling and queues at stores with one-in-one-out policies in place. Sales of long life and non-perishable items will slow as households work their way through stocks and consumers will focus on replenishing their supply of fresh foods.

“While much-reported panic buying has been concentrated to a relatively low number of individuals so far, we anticipate that this too will subside as consumers gain confidence in the retailers’ abilities to maintain grocery supplies and keep stock on the shelves.”

An update on the grocers

Fraser McKevitt comments: “During a time of unprecedented demand, all ten of the largest retailers were simultaneously in growth during the past 12 weeks – something we haven’t seen since October 2018. Meanwhile, independent retailers and symbols, which includes Spar, Nisa, Premier, Londis and Costcutter, provided welcome access to groceries close to home, and sales rose collectively by 16.1% this period.

“Lidl’s sales were up 17.6% during the 12 weeks, as its market share increased by 0.5 percentage points to 6.1%, while Aldi reached a new record high market share of 8.2%, growing sales by 11.0%.

“With growth of 7.4%, Sainsbury’s was the fastest growing of the traditional big four this period, followed by Tesco at 5.5%, Asda at 4.9% and Morrisons at 4.6%. Iceland benefited from shoppers stocking up on frozen items, with sales up by 11.7%. Its market share rose to 2.2%, up by 0.1 percentage points on last year.

“Co-op’s extensive number of convenience outlets helped to attract people looking to shop locally and its sales increased by 9.4%, while Waitrose’s sales grew at the fastest rate since November 2013, up by 7.5%.

“Despite a temporary halt on deliveries to new customers in March, online specialist Ocado still acquired 133,000 new shoppers during the past 12 weeks, helping it boost sales over the same period by 12.5%.”

Sainsbury’s was the only one of the big four retailers to grow overall grocery sales this period (up 0.3%), but this isn’t matched in its performance within dairy.  The retailer continued to decline at 1% compared with last year driven by declines in margarine, butter and milk.  That said, this performance is an improvement on last period of 0.5 percentage points, and volumes are in 3.6% growth.

Price deflation in some of the key dairy categories is giving a boost to volume sales. In the case of butter, prices have reduced by 29p per kilo on average and volume sales have risen 4% year on year, though value sales declined by 0.9%. The lower average price has engaged shoppers - with the higher volumes of butter sold generating £12.1m additional spend in the category as retailers move away from multibuy promotions towards temporary price reductions this year.

Tesco and Morrisons are key to this promotional dynamic, as the former’s volume sales grow at the expense of value and the latter’s volume uplift of 109,000 kilos hasn’t quite managed to push the retailer into volume growth year on year. Nevertheless, Morrisons’ strong presence in the north results in the retailers’ biggest contribution to growth in butter coming from the north, with pre-families and empty nesters engaging the most.

While the excitement around Veganuary may be wearing off, the percentage of shoppers picking up dairy free lines is still growing – up 3.2% percentage points in the last 12 weeks. This is predominantly through the UHT milk category which is growing £7.7m year on year, as a result of NPD from brands attracting new shoppers. With reports of retailers selling out of long-life products as a result of shoppers’ Coronavirus concerns, these lines are likely to see a further boost in our next market update.

Analysing the shopping habits of over 100,000 UK consumers, Kantar found that just a minority of people are engaging in what might traditionally be thought of as stockpiling.  For example, 6% of liquid soap buyers have taken home extraordinary quantities, and only 3% of dry pasta shoppers. 

Instead a significant number of consumers are adding a few extra products each time they visit a store.  The average spend per supermarket trip rose by 16% in the week ending 17 March to £22.13 compared to the same week a month ago.  As consumers reallocated spend to groceries, supermarkets took 51% of all retail sales, an increase of 7 percentage points on mid-February. 

Customers are also choosing to shop more often, exacerbating the impact of slightly larger baskets.  An additional 15 million supermarket visits were made in the week ending 17 March, compared to the week ending 17 February.      

Fraser McKevitt, head of retail and consumer insight at Kantar, says: “Most of us have seen images circulating online of people bulk buying products like toilet rolls and pasta, but our data gives us a different, if counterintuitive, diagnosis of what’s happening. 

“Ultimately we need to look at the empirical evidence and it tells us that temporary shortages are being caused by people adding just a few extra items and shopping more often – behaviour that consumers wouldn’t necessarily think of as stockpiling.  People will also be eating in more as a result of social distancing and increased working from home.  Consumers spend more than £4 billion each month on food and drink out of the home, a significant proportion of which will now be channelled through the supermarkets.”

Fraser continues: “It’s not just how much people are buying but what.  We’re seeing customers shop beyond their normal, regular product choice, putting pressure on supplies of items that aren’t usually bought as often.  Purchasing typically made over a couple of weeks or longer is being concentrated into a few days.

“Retailers have adapted to make sure everyone can access the products they need, with many restricting the number of any one good each customer can buy.  However, the cumulative impact of a little extra, a little bit more often means these measures may have limited effect in the short term.”

Sales of toilet tissues rose by 60% year-on-year for the week ending 8 March 2020, while dry pasta sales were up 55% and baked beans by 48%.

Alongside supermarkets, health and beauty stores, bargain retailers and convenience stores all saw a rise in sales during the week ending 17 March, with trips increasing month-on-month by 25%, 29% and 19% respectively.  Meanwhile, visits to pet stores went up by 27%.  Conversely opticians, clothing stores, sports shops, auto specialists and unsurprisingly restaurants have been hit hardest by the downturn in trade.

Kantar is analysing the numbers regularly to keep clients updated.  Fraser concludes: “Retailers and manufacturers are working hard to respond to customers’ needs.  It’s important for them to understand what the new essentials are for consumers and what the ‘new normal’ might look like once this crisis passes.”

Nathan Ward, Business Unit Director, MFP, explains: “Across January we heard a lot about the impact of meat free and the move towards less meat in our diets. Using our Worldpanel Plus service, we spoke to 5,000 people who went plant based for Veganuary and 90% said they wouldn’t return to their normal diet afterwards. What we did learn was that only 18% managed to stay vegan for the whole month. This tallies with what we are already seeing; diets are changing, but it isn’t as black and white as consumers making wholesale lifestyle changes. Volume sales in MFP are down in across all categories except primary meat and poultry, which is fairly static. While there’s slightly more shoppers buying primary meat and poultry, we see each shopper is making fewer trips on average.”

While processed meat and poultry has seen sales in volume terms fall by 1.8% year on year, value sales have grown as shoppers are paying 5% more (an additional 29p per kilo). This hasn’t dampened demand overall with spend up 3% and 1.3m more trips being made compared to last year. Volume decline has been driven by smaller baskets with all categories seeing smaller trips compared to last year. Bacon continues to see the steepest decline, as a result of fewer shoppers and smaller baskets -  with Y for £X deals down 47% compared to last year. Rising prices have kept value sales of bacon buoyant, with price hikes driven by promotional changes and inflation in farm prices.

Ward continues: “Within fresh primary meat and poultry, pork is seeing the strongest decline as prices rise. We’ve seen 764,000 fewer shoppers and 3.8m fewer trips as shoppers continue to move away from pork roasts, steaks and chops. Leg and shoulder roasts are both down, with chops and steaks also seeing a marked decline. Overall, pork has had much less promotional support than other meats and the rate of promoted sales is down. Some 32% fewer volume sales were on promotion this year, making this a key factor. Chicken remains the positive story in the category, with value and volume growth as we see 315,000 more shoppers putting it in their baskets and 2.9m more trips. Whole birds are still in decline, with this offset by growth in breasts, legs and wings. Promotions are again playing a key role here in holding back value growth, with 30% of volume sales on promotion, up 23% on last year as we see price cuts rise by a third.”

Over the 12 weeks to 23 February, sales of fish struggled in both value and volume terms, with 184,000 fewer trips and static shopper numbers. Ward continues: “At the same time, we are seeing smaller trips, despite promotions increasing 2% in the last year. Cod and mackerel are the key species driving volume decline, but salmon is also in negative growth, massively affecting the overall performance.” Natural fish fillets are the key driver of volume decline, with 712,000 fewer trips and 199,000 fewer shoppers. Cod (down 20%) and plaice (down 31%) are the key drivers of volume decline in natural fish, with salmon in volume growth (up 0.4%), but value decline (down 3%), as prices drop due to greater use of promotions.

It’s clear that that shoppers’ behaviour has been hugely volatile over recent weeks, with unprecedented scenes of shoppers stocking up in anticipation of long stretches at home. Our next update will give us an informed view of the impact of this impulsive buying on the meat, fish and poultry categories.

Sainsbury’s was the only one of the traditional large grocers to increase year-on-year sales, with spend up by 0.3% as it returned to growth for the first time since October 2019.  Fraser McKevitt, head of retail and consumer insight at Kantar, says: “Sainsbury’s has performed well this period despite a challenging market, growing sales in its Sainsbury’s Local convenience stores as well as online.  It’s worth noting, however, that continued pressure from the discount retailers meant the retailer still lost market share this month.”

Among the rest of the big four, sales at Tesco and Asda dipped by 0.8% and 1.2% respectively.  Meanwhile, Morrisons sales were 2.0% lower than the same period last year, and as a result its market share fell from 10.4% to 10.2%.

Across the market, recent news reports around coronavirus saw consumers take steps to ward off colds and flu, accelerating sales of hygiene and health products.  Fraser McKevitt explains: “Given the media focus around the outbreak of COVID-19 in February, it’s unsurprising to see shoppers prudently protecting themselves from illness.  Sales of hand sanitiser increased by 255% in February.  Meanwhile, other kinds of liquid soaps saw sales increase by 7%, and 10% more was spent on household cleaners.”

Such concerns didn’t stop the British public getting close to their loved ones at the most romantic time of year, as some 45% of consumers celebrated Valentine’s Day on 14 February*. Chocolates were the most popular gift, given by almost a third of those taking part, while 22% of participants chose to give flowers to their valentine and 12% gifted alcohol.

Lidl was the main beneficiary, increasing sales of Valentine’s categories – including chilled ready meals, desserts, sparkling wine and boxed chocolates – by 17%.  The discounter also took the crown as Britain’s fastest-growing grocer for the first time since November 2017, with sales up by 11.4%. Fraser McKevitt comments: “Lidl has been benefiting from its store expansion programme for a number of years, hitting a landmark in February by opening its 800^th British store.  The new locations have helped to bring in nearly 900,000 additional shoppers to the supermarket this period, and its proportion of market sales has increased from 5.2% last year to 5.8%.”

Meanwhile, Aldi’s sales were up by 5.7%, with its share of the market now standing at 7.9%.  The retailer was particularly strong in both alcohol, up by 7%, and chilled convenience items – such as dips and prepared salads – which grew by 8%.

This year Waitrose has ramped up preparations to take full control of its own online distribution as its partnership with Ocado comes to an end in September.  Key to its success will be translating its premium brand to the online experience.  Fraser McKevitt continues: “Waitrose currently only commands 5.1% of the market, with sales declining by 1.3%, but is the market leader in shopper satisfaction**.  Nearly four times more people report a good experience shopping with Waitrose than a negative one.  Satisfaction with in-store staff is particularly high, and capturing that trademark service will be crucial as it grows its online platform this year.”

Co-op shoppers on average made one additional trip to the grocer over the past 12 weeks, in contrast to the overall market where frequency fell.  The convenience retailer saw sales grow by 2.5% year on year, and its market share grew to 6.0%.     

Elsewhere Ocado continued its double digit growth at 10.8%, while Iceland’s sales increased by 1.7% and its market share remained flat at 2.2%. 

* Valentine’s Day findings based on the responses of 66,987 adults (aged 18+) in Great Britain asked how they celebrated Valentine’s Day. The survey was conducted by Worldpanel Plus between 21 February and 28 February 2020.

** Findings based on continuous Kantar Shopper Satisfaction study. More than 50,000 trip reviews submitted by shoppers each week covering all UK retailers. Study was conducted by Worldpanel Plus over the 12 weeks to 23 February 2020.

The nation’s biggest retailer, Tesco, kicks off 2020 already in a decline of £12m compared with last year (-1.7%). The retailer’s fortunes in the sector are due to sales of milk falling back by £4.6m (-2.3%) and  yoghurts declining by £3.5m (-3.8%). It is older, class C1 shoppers and retirees the retailer is losing, both at an overall level and within milk. This is most likely due to Tesco stepping back its volume deals in the sector. Sales on promotion in dairy were down £10m, and this trickled down to milk where X for £Y promotions were down by £4m. Though the retailer’s full price milk sales have grown by 1.6%, this is not enough to offset the losses which come from promoted sales (-0.3%).

While butter sales overall were in decline, Lidl bucked the trend and grew its contribution to growth this period by £1.5m compared with last year. This growth has come from a strong mix of Temporary Price Reductions (TPRs) and base sales. The highest contribution to spend comes from under 45 year olds, class C2 and D shoppers, pre-families and young families. This is very similar to the picture in the overall dairy market and within butter, which is performing strongly with under 28 year olds.

Sainsbury’s on the other hand, is struggling within the category. Butter sales have declined by 5.9% year on year, feeding into an overall decline in dairy. The retailer is seeing a similar demographic mix as the total butter market with older, Class C1, retirees spending less in the category but the retailer is not recovering this decline through younger, more affluent shoppers.

Veganuary is the word of the month for January, and we have seen the effects of this ripple through the sector. Plant Based dairy alternatives have attracted 4.4% more trips and 2.7% percentage points more penetration than last year with shoppers spending almost £1 more than in the same 12 weeks last year. This suggests the rise of veganism is continuing and will be a trend throughout 2020 providing opportunities for manufacturers and retailers alike.

Not everyone wanted to get involved of course, with only 9% (more than 5,000 in our sample) choosing to take part this January. Despite the recent noise surrounding the impact of mass livestock farming, health trumped both the environment and ethics in being a motivator. Health was cited as driving concern by 42% of those taking part.

Good intentions are hard to sustain, with the challenge of going vegan proving too much for most, as the majority (70%) gave up within two weeks!

The main culprit? Cheese. It was the product most missed by our shoppers, whereas meat was surprisingly easy to substitute. The Veganuary experience seems to have left a mark on participants with only 10% intending to completely revert back to their original diet.

Retailers and brands looked to satisfy the trend by flooding the market with new plant-based alternatives in the new year. This went down a treat, with even one third of those who didn’t take part sinking their teeth into some vegan food. This sets the tone for 2020, with the important truth that plant-based food isn’t for the purist minority, but rather takes a mainstream position in the diets even among those who are definitely not vegan.

Nathan Ward, Business Unit Director, MFP, explains: “We’ve heard a lot about the impact of meat free and the move towards less meat in our diets. We know that some people are changing their lifestyles and are cutting out or cutting down on meat, but a large percentage of consumers continue to buy MFP. Overall, fresh primary meat and poultry actually saw more shoppers – an additional 99,000 compared with last year. Volume sales for fresh meat and poultry were flat over the 12 weeks and were only down in fresh processed meat and poultry with all sectors in growth with the exception of bacon.”

Fresh processed meat and poultry may have seen volume sales fall by 1.1% compared with last year, but attracted 119,000 more shoppers and saw 3.2 million more trips. Volume decline has been driven by smaller baskets, as shoppers put less bacon in their baskets. Bacon has lost 155,000 shoppers compared with last year and seen 313,000 fewer trips, but the biggest contributor to the decline is again a result of smaller baskets, with those declining at -5.3% compared to last year. Promotions are a huge driver of performance when it comes to bacon – with these accounting for 27% of volume sales - down 18% on last year. Rising prices have kept value sales buoyant, with price hikes driven by promotional changes and inflation in farm prices. Sausages and burgers have seen strong growth as more shoppers pick them up.

Ward continues: “Within fresh primary meat and poultry, pork is seeing the strongest decline as prices rise. We’ve seen 680,000 fewer shoppers and 3.4 million fewer trips as shoppers continue to move away from roasts, steaks and chops. Leg and shoulder roasts are both down, with chops and steaks also seeing a strong decline. Overall, pork is seeing much less promotional support than other meats with promoted sales down. Some 20% less volume sales were on promotion this year, making this a key factor in the decline of the key cuts.”

Ward continues:  “We’ve seen fish really struggle in our recent updates, culminating in value and volume decline this period as fewer shoppers make smaller trips. Salmon (-1.6%) and Cod (-5.3%) are the key drivers of the volume decline. Added value fish is behind the declines in salmon and cod, but the latter is also suffering from losses in natural fillets. Added value lines are a key driver of decline, but natural fish is impacting the overall category as smaller baskets take their toll. We have seen fewer promotions driving this, with volume on promotion down 4% as there are fewer Y for £X deals available in store. The decline in natural fish is being driven by young and middle families, but also the retired who are a core group for the category.”

So while the buzz around Veganuary isn’t perhaps being reflected in market performance, will we perhaps see real change in habits as the movement gains more momentum from shoppers who gave veganism a try in January? We know that the new year is often a time for trying new things, so join us in four weeks’ time to find out how the trend progresses.

The nation’s biggest retailer, Tesco, kicks off 2020 already in a decline of £12m compared with last year (-1.7%). The retailer’s fortunes in the sector are due to sales of milk falling back by £4.6m (-2.3%) and  yoghurts declining by £3.5m (-3.8%). It is older, class C1 shoppers and retirees the retailer is losing, both at an overall level and within milk. This is most likely due to Tesco stepping back its volume deals in the sector. Sales on promotion in dairy were down £10m, and this trickled down to milk where X for £Y promotions were down by £4m. Though the retailer’s full price milk sales have grown by 1.6%, this is not enough to offset the losses which come from promoted sales (-0.3%).

While butter sales overall were in decline, Lidl bucked the trend and grew its contribution to growth this period by £1.5m compared with last year. This growth has come from a strong mix of Temporary Price Reductions (TPRs) and base sales. The highest contribution to spend comes from under 45 year olds, class C2 and D shoppers, pre-families and young families. This is very similar to the picture in the overall dairy market and within butter, which is performing strongly with under 28 year olds.

Sainsbury’s on the other hand, is struggling within the category. Butter sales have declined by 5.9% year on year, feeding into an overall decline in dairy. The retailer is seeing a similar demographic mix as the total butter market with older, Class C1, retirees spending less in the category but the retailer is not recovering this decline through younger, more affluent shoppers.

Veganuary is the word of the month for January, and we have seen the effects of this ripple through the sector. Plant Based dairy alternatives have attracted 4.4% more trips and 2.7% percentage points more penetration than last year with shoppers spending almost £1 more than in the same 12 weeks last year. This suggests the rise of veganism is continuing and will be a trend throughout 2020 providing opportunities for manufacturers and retailers alike.

CMM already covers traditional media, including TV, as well as Facebook other digital media platforms. The addition of YouTube means the service now tracks approximately 90% of all advertising and 80%¹ of the digital advertising seen by the typical consumer each day. This represents the most complete read of advertising effectiveness in the fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) industry.

Kantar’s CMM service assesses how an individual’s probability of buying changes after exposure to different influences including advertising. All information is collected with panellists’ explicit permission and in a privacy-safe environment. Working at an individual level, and evaluating each different form of media, Kantar cross-references advertisers’ ad ‘flight’ plans to measure the effectiveness of every pound spent on each media.

Kerry Corke, Global Media Director at Worldpanel Division, Kantar said: “Accounting for exposures on widely used digital platforms such as YouTube is vital for advertisers who use CMM results to improve the relevance and impact of their communications. Digital advertising has grown significantly in recent years, in some cases overtaking traditional channels in terms of advertising spend. We are constantly adapting our tools to reflect trends and the addition of YouTube is the latest in a continuing stream of planned developments.”

YouTube viewing data is captured through a combination of passive-metering of panellist exposures and dynamic statistical techniques to extrapolate to the appropriate demographic group. All media exposures reported are linked directly with corresponding panellist purchasing behaviour to understand advertising impact on sales and buyer recruitment.

Gwladys Hall, Head of Media for Great Britain at Worldpanel Division, Kantar said: “We have been at the forefront of developing this new solution for YouTube measurement here in Britain. Our data shows that 48%² of the main grocery shoppers in British households use YouTube, with more than a quarter of those viewing everyday. Our enhanced CMM coverage now gives an even more complete view of how media consumption influences FMCG sales.”

The expanded CMM service is available from today in Argentina, Brazil, France, Indonesia, Portugal, Spain, Taiwan, Thailand, Mexico, UK and Vietnam.

Find out more about Kantar’s wider media capabilities including audience measurement and brand tracking.

1. CMM is available in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, France, India Indonesia, Peru, Portugal, South Korea, Spain, Taiwan, Thailand, Mexico, UK and Vietnam. Degrees of digital coverage vary by market.
2. Kantar GB FMCG Purchase Panel, Media Survey January 2020, 17,461 respondents

Incremental growth which adds value to the category as a whole is the ultimate marker of success. But it’s easier said than done.

Our ranking of 2019’s most successful launches is here to show you how. The ranking sets out last year’s top ten new products in terms of spend, but also crucially ranks them by how much incremental growth they created for the manufacturer and their category overall.

Find out more:

• Download your copy of the ranking today to find out today which new brands made the top ten.
• Listen again to our webinar which took place on Tuesday 11 February at 2pm. Our innovation expert, Russell Hill, went through the ranking, giving the inside scoop on the recipe for success for each.
• Read the recent blog from Russell, where he sets out the five factors for success and the importance of an incremental mindset.

Get in touch to find out how we can help you make sure your next innovation is more than just a roll of the dice.

Fraser McKevitt, head of retail and consumer insight at Kantar, comments: “Many people start the year with good intentions and pledges to make healthier choices following the excesses of the festive period.  Those who committed to drinking less in January helped the retailers boost sales of non-alcoholic beer by 37% and adult soft drinks by 3%, as shoppers reached for alternatives to their favourite tipples.  Of course, not everyone has been abstaining, and more than 15 million households still bought alcohol during the past four weeks.”

The retailers welcomed the return of Veganuary by launching a number of new product lines including ‘Gro’ from Co-op, ‘Plant based’ from Asda and Waitrose & Partners’ vegan range.  Fraser McKevitt comments: “It’s clear the Veganuary campaign is having an impact.  More than twice as many consumers bought one of the supermarkets’ explicitly labelled plant-based products in January 2020 compared with the festivity-filled December 2019.  Sales of meat substitutes such as soya mince or vegetarian burgers and sausages were 14% higher than January last year, while sales of lentils were up 6%, lettuce 10% and aubergine 14%.”

Health was the most popular reason for people getting involved in Veganuary*, cited by 42% of participants, followed by environmental concerns (28%) and ethical reasons (27%).  Fraser McKevitt continues: “Nearly half of people giving up meat and dairy in January did so because they perceive it as a healthy choice.  However, the plant-based food boom is not primarily caused by a rise in the number of people following strict vegan diets – vegans still make up just 2% of the population and only 5% of us are vegetarian.  Instead the trend is being driven by many people making small changes and trying to eat more plant-based meals and the retailers are responding accordingly.”

Among the individual retailers, Ocado’s market share increased by 0.2 percentage points to 1.4% and Fraser McKevitt comments: “Ocado was once again the UK’s fastest growing grocer with sales 11.2% higher than this time last year.  More than half of the online retailer’s sales come from customers in London and the South of England, but its quickest growth is actually found outside of this heartland in the North of England where its sales were 17% higher than the same time last year.”  

Lidl also achieved double digit growth, up by 11.1% year on year.  Fraser McKevitt expands: “Branded items account for a small but growing part of the discounter’s sales, with household favourites in cleaning and confectionery contributing to a 19% increase during the past 12 weeks.  Meanwhile, Aldi increased sales by 5.7%, growing chilled ready meals and spirits both by 12%.  A key factor in the advance of the discounters has been their ability to attract additional shoppers, each welcoming more than 800,000 extra visitors through their doors in the past year, supported by strong store opening programmes.”

Sainsbury’s was again the best performing of the big four retailers as its sales fell by 0.6% and its market share was marginally lower as result.  Sainsbury’s now accounts for 15.8% of the market, down from 15.9% at the same point last year.  While still declining, Sainsbury’s performance is improving, and online sales were a bright spot – growing by 7% year on year.

Morrisons continued to lose market share, down from 10.6% last year to 10.3% in the past 12 weeks.  Fraser McKevitt comments: “Morrisons is bucking the trend in the overall grocery market, where fewer groceries are being purchased on deal, conducting 47% of its sales through some type of promotion during the past 12 weeks, a 1.3 percentage point increase on last year’s level.”

Asda’s sales declined by 2.2% and its market share fell back to 14.9%.  However, its upmarket ‘Extra Special’ range proved popular with customers and achieved double-digit sales growth, expanding most notably in fresh meat, crisps and alcohol.

Co-op continued its run of growth, which stretches back to May 2018, with sales now up by 2.7%.  The convenience retailer’s share rose by 0.1 percentage points to 6.0%.  Meanwhile, Tesco’s market share dropped by 0.4 percentage points to 27.3% and sales were 0.9% lower than a year ago.

Iceland’s sales grew ahead of the overall market at 1.4% and its share held steady as a result.  Waitrose’s sales were 1.5% lower than that same period last year and its market share slipped from 5.1% to 5.0%.

While it’s difficult, it’s not impossible to generate incremental sales. Our expert analysis of new product launches finds there’s five factors that successful innovations have in common:

Think incremental: All launches should aim to add incremental value to the category overall. Debutants which simply encourage shoppers to switch from one product to another are of little value to retailers – giving them no motivation to make space on already crowded shelves. The best-performing launches either bring in new shoppers or entice them to make extra trips or buy in bigger quantities. The challenge is that attracting more shoppers is a difficult ask; many categories have already reached high penetration and struggle to bring in new buyers. It is equally hard to increase sales volumes in categories where shoppers are actively looking to cut spending or consumption.

One of the most effective ways around this challenge is to target different occasions through a brand extension. Bailey’s Strawberries and Cream has taken a much-loved brand and applied it to summer occasions, new territory for a tipple which is more associated with curling up next to a log fire. Similarly, Elvive’s Dream Lengths takes a strong existing brand and delivers a distinct benefit. Both of these launches focus on new opportunity rather than duplication. Only by developing this incremental mindset can a brand drive true growth.

Premiumise: Given it is so difficult to reach more shoppers, one of the most effective ways to generate value through NPD is to encourage existing shoppers to trade up. To add value, new lines should command a higher price point; our studies show that a price premium of 30-40% is best to maximise revenue for the brand and category. Of course, this approach only works if the product can sustain this price premium over time. Marketing your brand as ‘the best’ encourages shoppers to trade up, but the product needs to justify its premium price tag. Our ranking of the top NPDs of 2018 found that successful launches from Persil, Bold and Comfort commanded a price premium. Added benefits, plus premium positioning, higher price and high-end packaging is the formula for success.

Crack the big four: Our research finds that, in FMCG, it is vital to for new lines to get listings in the top four grocers in order to reach £5 million sales in the first year. Brands which are listed in the top four retailers are 10 times as likely to hit this sales target as those which fail to do so. In order to win as many shoppers as possible, listings in the key channels are essential. Being there is one of the simplest principles, but one of the most important.

Get promotion right: The principles outlined by leading manufacturers, especially P&G, show that innovation is the source of long-term growth, whereas price promotions provide a short-term sales bounce. However, the mantra “promotions win quarters, but innovation wins decades” is open to possible misinterpretation. While long-term growth is driven by innovative product development, price promotion is a vital tool in the marketing of NPD. If a manufacturer launches a new product in a highly promoted category, it follows that the NPD needs to be promoted to gain traction with shoppers. Therefore, for those brands operating in a highly promoted category like crisps and snacks, it is essential to promote. Walkers, the market leader, promotes its NPD at a similar level to its core lines.  

Capture the zeitgeist: The greatest NPD will incorporate all of the above principles but add one crucial element; it will tap into a current trend. Halo Top, 2018’s star-performing NPD, encapsulates the trends of our age. As health is clearly a greater issue for shoppers now, it makes sense that a successful innovation incorporates this. Halo Top crucially creates a healthy indulgent product, addressing the trends of health and indulgence in one product. It also encourages shoppers to trade up with its high price per volume and premium positioning.

Applying these principles will not change the fact that successful NPD is hard to achieve, especially in the UK, but it does mean a much greater chance of success. 

Our ranking of the most successful innovations of 2019, published next week, will uncover which brands are getting it right.

Nathan Ward, Business Unit Director, MFP, explains: “Over the 12 weeks leading up to the end of the year, primary meat and poultry saw a loss of 15,000 shoppers year on year, but there was little sign of the meat-free Christmas that some predicted. Volume sales were flat over Christmas, but with changes in the contents of shopping baskets. Fish volume sales came under pressure, and red meat volumes fell back over the period. Chicken saw strong volume growth, but this wasn’t matched by value sales. Beef sales in value terms dropped faster than volumes, as increased promotional support slowed volume decline.”

The decline in beef was once again driven by shoppers buying fewer roasting cuts (-8%) and mince (-4%). Some 113,000 fewer shoppers picked up roasting joints year on year, and they were selected on 471,000 fewer trips. Beef mince has seen a steep drop off, losing 306,000 shoppers and 526,000 fewer trips, despite a relative resurgence in lamb and pork mince. Chicken remains in healthy volume growth, but increased promotions (22%) are subsidising some of this growth and holding back value sales. Chicken was picked up on 3.6 million more shopping trips this year - attracting 127,000 more shoppers, demonstrating the fact its buyer base is making more frequent trips. Breasts, legs and wings are driving the volume growth, but all find value growth harder to come by as the prices fall.

Ward continues: “Lamb and pork are seeing the strongest declines, but for different reasons. Lamb lost 380,000 shoppers this year, with roasting joints down overall (-2%), but growth from shoulder joints offsetting some of the losses from lamb legs. More concerning were the steep losses in lamb steaks (-14%) and stewing cuts (-20%). Steaks continue to lose shoppers - 515,000 fewer year on year - as promotions are down by two thirds this year. Empty nesters and retired shoppers are the shopper groups which are propelling this decline, but all life stages are buying less. Stewing cuts see a stronger value decline as prices fall faster than volume sales, but there’s still 280,000 fewer trips. Pork has seen 2.9 million fewer trips this year and is attracts 660,000 fewer shoppers. Leg (-15%), loin (-4%) and shoulder (-17%) roasts are all down, with chops (-9%) and steaks (-16%) also seeing a strong decline. Overall, pork is seeing much less promotional support than other meats, with 32% less volume sold on promotion this year, making this a key factor in the decline of the key cuts.”

Ward continues:  “Fish has also seen a change in fortunes with volumes down over the last 12 weeks driven by added value products which are usually stronger over the festive period. Added value saw 55,000 fewer shoppers, and decline from smaller shopping trips. Less affluent shoppers drove the decline, so this was potentially driven by budget constraints. Smoked fish saw volumes sales increase and value sales decline as salmon grew through more promotions (+17%) which pushed down averages prices by 57p per kg. Shellfish saw strong growth with prawns the source of growth, but lobster and scampi also on the rise.”

With Christmas done and dusted, we enter an interesting time for the category. The buzz around Veganuary is stronger than ever and is supported by significant NPD in all of the big retailers. Will this be the year it moves further into the mainstream? We don’t expect to see an immediate sea-change, but join us in four weeks’ time to find out what the impact has been this year.

But despite the strong end to 2019, there are signs that market growth is slowing. When you compare performance this period with our last market update (covering the 12 weeks to 1 December 2019) the market is in 0.06% decline – equating to £1.1 million. This reflects the picture in the wider grocery market, where growth slowed to just 0.2% in the 12 weeks leading up to the New Year.

Shoppers made one less trip to the grocers over the all-important Christmas period, and as a result the slowdown in growth is evident particularly among the big four. The major retailers struggled through the Christmas period, with declines in grocery sales overall as well as dairy. Morrisons in particular had a poor showing for dairy which impacted the overall picture – with a 4.6% spend decline in dairy propelling a fall back in grocery sales of 2.9%. This performance is due to milk sales dropping by £4.2 million year on year, despite the fact that milk’s decline overall is slowing (up £3.9 million comparing to last period). This has deepened the losses in spend from smaller households and retirees in the North, a region which is historically the retailer’s stronghold.

Lidl’s overall grocery growth of 10.3% saw it take home the trophy for fastest growing bricks and mortar retailer over the Christmas period. This was surpassed by its performance in dairy (up 11.1% year on year). Cheese has been the key driver, accounting for an additional £8 million sales compared with last year, with base sales up £5.7 million and price reductions £2.3 million. This growth has come from all demographics, in particular smaller households, class C2DE and older homes – a continuation of the long term trend for the retailer.

While milk has caused a headache for Morrisons, a few retailers did see growth in sales year on year, largely due to average prices increasing by 1p per litre. However, the Co-Op has driven growth through all pack sizes by encouraging shoppers to pick milk up more often, again following a long-term trend for the convenience retailer. The discounters are also increasingly influential and their share within milk has increased 0.7 percentage points over the last 12 weeks – resulting in them capturing an additional £6.4 million spend compared with last year. This shift has not only put pressure on the big four grocers, but constricts the value of the category as shoppers pick up more of their milk from the lower-priced discount retailers.

That said, milk remains the largest category in dairy – taking 3% share of the market. Nevertheless, it’s worth monitoring as the category could face challenges as the dairy-free trend continues to gain pace.

Fraser McKevitt, head of retail and consumer insight at Kantar explains: “There was no sign of the post-election rush many had hoped for in the final weeks before Christmas, with shoppers carefully watching their budgets.  In fact, many of us cut back on traditional and indulgent festive classics.  Sales of Christmas puddings were down by 16%, while seasonal biscuits were 11% lower.  Turkey sales also fell by 1%, partly down to a shift from whole birds to smaller and cheaper joints such as crowns.  

Fraser McKevitt continues: “Shoppers also popped fewer corks this year, as sparkling wine sales dipped by 8%.  However, both beer, up 1%, and still wine, up 2%, were more popular than in 2018.  As predicted, Monday 23 December was easily the single busiest shopping day of 2019 – and indeed the largest shopping day ever recorded – worth £798 million as the nation stocked up before Christmas Eve.”

Overall, average household spending over the 12 weeks fell by £8 to £1,055, while total volume sales fell by 0.7%.  Meanwhile, like-for-like prices only rose by a fractional 0.9%, which was good news for consumers looking to control festive bills, but the low level of inflation did little to boost the market.

Among the bricks and mortar retailers, Lidl led the way with sales growth of 10.3% over the past 12 weeks.  It performed particularly strongly with branded products, where sales were up 24%.  Together with Aldi, the discount retailers took their highest ever combined Christmas market share.  Fraser McKevitt says: “At the end of the decade, it’s worth remembering just how quickly Lidl and Aldi have grown.  Their current combined market share of 13.7% is more than treble what they held in December 2009, an unprecedented increase over the course of ten years.”  

Individually, Aldi’s sales were up by 5.9%, and its market share grew by 0.4 percentage points to 7.8%.  Sales of the supermarket’s Specially Selected range rose by £18 million, the highest rate among all retailer premium own label lines.  This year’s ‘Kevin the Carrot’ adverts also went down well with shoppers, as the addition of new characters to the story helped to sell 2,498 tonnes of sprouts – an increase of 44% on last year.

Britain’s fastest growing grocer overall was Ocado, with sales rising by 12.5%.  The online retailer has now been the fastest grower since June 2019. 

The slow market made it particularly difficult for the largest retailers to increase sales.  The ‘big 4’ grocers were especially impacted by customers choosing to make one fewer trip to stores in the latest period.  Sales at Sainsbury’s fell by 0.7%, although its market share held relatively firm dipping by just 0.1 percentage points to 16.0%.  Sainsbury’s online sales were a highlight however, increasing by 7% with a total 1.1 million users over the past 12 weeks.  

Meanwhile, Tesco sales were 1.5% lower, with its share down by 0.4 percentage points to 27.4%.  Asda and Morrisons also saw sales fall by 2.2% and 2.9% respectively, with their market shares also dropping. 

Co-op’s 3.0% growth was ahead of the market, and enough to increase its share by 0.2 percentage points to 6.1%.  Much of its success was fuelled by chilled products, with fresh poultry sales up by 10% and convenience items like pizza up 9%.

Waitrose’s market share remained at 5.0%, unaffected by a 0.9% fall in sales.  Iceland on the other hand enjoyed a bright festive spell, as Fraser McKevitt explains: “Iceland’s sales rose by 1.3% as its recent newspaper coupon campaign helped to attract an extra 390,000 shoppers through its doors.  As well as increasing sales of frozen food, other categories which performed particularly well included soft drinks – up by 21%.  Iceland was one of the five retailers to win market share, gaining an extra 0.1 percentage points to stand at 2.3%.”

• South Korea has the greatest value share of global e-commerce sales
• UK’s online grocery sales increased by 6%

Kantar, the world’s leading data, insights and consulting company, today announced the latest fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) e-commerce sales data. In the year ending 30 June 2019, global FMCG online sales grew seven times faster than total FMCG sales on average.

Chinese mainland remains top of the list for growth in e-commerce sales by value with a 36.1% increase and continues to accelerate. In the last six months e-commerce grew by 10 penetration points to 73% of the population (three in every four Chinese households) buying groceries online. This increase marks Chinese mainland jointly with South Korea as the most advanced countries in the world for FMCG e-commerce.

Source: Worldpanel FMCG panel, Kantar, 12 months ending June 2019

Asian economies continue leading the way in terms of online share of total sales. South Korea tops this table with an online value market share of 20.3% followed by Chinese mainland (15.2%) and Taiwan (8.7%).

In Western Europe, the UK gets the biggest share of online FMCG sales (7.6%) followed by France (6.2%).

Source: Worldpanel FMCG panel, Kantar, 12 months ending June 2019

Amazon’s FMCG sales growth is slowing down in France

In Europe, the most developed grocery sales country for Amazon is the UK with 10% of the online grocery market. The UK is followed by France, where Amazon has captured a market share of 5% of total online FMCG sales.

Amazon is still not top of mind when it comes to grocery shopping in the UK, especially for big shopping missions. Eric Batty, global e-commerce business development director, Worldpanel Division, Kantar, comments: “The main challenge for Amazon is to achieve bigger grocery baskets – this pure player is not yet appealing for stock up missions and online shoppers currently tend to have a specific shopping mission when they buy groceries in Amazon.”

Online will be the leading channel in Asia by 2025

Online sales will represent almost one third of FMCG sales in the Chinese mainland by 2025 and one quarter in South Korea. In France and the UK, e-commerce will represent slightly less than 10% of FMCG sales.

Stéphane Roger, global shopper and retail director at Worldpanel Division, Kantar, comments: “We predict that by 2025, online grocery sales will double, meaning that 10% of global FMCG sales will happen online. The continued demand for convenience in urban areas, the integration between online and offline, the creation of new direct-to-consumer options and more technology will all help reach new targets beyond the current profile of affluent families with children.”

Source: Worldpanel FMCG panel, Kantar

Notes to editors

These findings are based on Kantar’s Worldpanel FMCG panel data for the 12 months ending June 2019. This research tracks more than 150,000 households across 21 countries that provide extensive and continuous information about their shopper behaviour.
Fresh produce is excluded from the definition of online FMCG.

Nathan Ward, Business Unit Director, MFP, explains: “Chilled fish has seen slightly slower growth than last month, but still leads the way adding 3 million more trips than this time last year. Nearly two thirds of the population having bought chilled fish over this period and 62% of the volume was sold to empty nesters and retired shoppers. Breaded continues to show the fastest growth and is bought by 4.7m shoppers, up by 402,000 on last year. With almost 1/3rd of volume on promotion, breaded provides a great value option for shoppers offering the lowest price per kg and continuing to cheaper prices over time”.

Ward continues: “Red meat is again struggling for growth, with beef, lamb and pork all declining in value and volume over the last year, fuelled by fewer shoppers buying each one. Meat free isn’t the only factor at play here, each protein is facing individual challenges. In beef we see pre-family and young families driving the decline. Empty nesters and retired shoppers are buying more price cut promotions which is bringing in shoppers, but still failing to offset the losses on every day sales.

Lamb has seen fewer shoppers making smaller trips, with steaks and leg joints the key cuts in decline as cost conscious consumers consider their purchases. Lower promotional levels are driving the decline this year with volumes down by 20% predominantly in chops, steak and leg joints driving this. Chicken has driven volume despite falling value sales, having seen 5.2m more trips compared to last year. Almost ¾ of the population bought chicken over the last 12 weeks and promotions are up 42% in volume terms on last year, with price cuts driving this in breasts, legs and wings.”.

Ward continues: “There is brighter news too, as some processed meats showed a better performance in with bacon, sausages and burgers on the rise. Despite the decline this summer of burger sales, 29% of shoppers bought burgers in the last week, helping to drive an additional 3.6m trips. Supported by stronger promotions, with deal volumes up 35%, price cuts have been stimulating these trips. Young and middle families remain key to the growth of burgers, but the strongest volume growth is coming from empty nesters, which shows the broad appeal of the category.”.

Christmas is coming and with the General Election done and dusted, can we see a change in behaviour on the horizon? Will shopper confidence increase and see consumers opt for a Christmas with all the bells and whistles or will we see a more restrained shopper counting the pennies? We all know that turkey rules the roost at Christmas, but will we see other proteins step forward and try to take the crown this year?

With Christmas on a Wednesday, we are predicting an extra potential roasting occasion, so we may see a resurgence for roasts after a few tough months. Look out for our Christmas update in 4 weeks' time to find out more.

This is a positive sign as we head into the Christmas period, with shoppers spending £21.5 million more on cheese year on year, and the declines in spend on fromage frais and margarine both slowing down compared with last period, down £2.5 million and £2 million respectively.

Cheese still stands as the second largest category, worth £685 million, and has been in year on year growth of more than 3% since October 2019. A combination of shoppers buying more and visiting the shops more often is the predominant cause of the growth.

Within cheese, all sectors are driving growth with ingredients and speciality cheeses growing 8.8% year on year. However, it is snacking cheeses that shoppers are picking up more frequently, with customers picking up branded kids snacks more often than last year and willing to pay 50p extra. Tesco and Aldi lead the way, with the latter outgrowing the market in snacking overall, growing 34.6% compared with 6.7% across all other retailers. The growth in branded kids snacks is not reliant on promotions, temporary price reductions (TPRs) have been pulled back with growth coming through full price sales. As could be expected, young families with children up to 4 years old are spending more in the sector (an additional £2.1 million year on year) and particularly C2 shoppers.

Growth in volume per trip for cheese comes from everyday favourites - mainly through a strong performance from branded block cheddar and sliced private label cheeses. The former is driving the sector’s volume sales through promotional activity which is giving a boost to trip volume. This dynamic is most evident in Tesco, despite the retailer seeing an overall decline in branded block cheddar year on year (down 0.9%). Helen Stone, Category Analyst, comments: “Empty nester and class E shoppers are the ones snapping up these deals, and their spend in this area is growing by 9.6% and 2.2% respectively year on year.”

Key for the performance of the sector will be whether pre-pack cheese sales can be sustained over the festive period, with retailers likely to support Christmas-specific ranges with gondola ends in-store. Looking to the new year, the impact of  Veganuary is also something to watch, the impact on dairy could be noticeable.

Fraser McKevitt, head of retail and consumer insight at Kantar, explains: “We’re yet to see consumers ramp up their spending in the run up to Christmas and, as anticipated, Black Friday only brought a limited boost for the grocers.  The number of people claiming to take advantage of Black Friday* this year fell to 53% from 57% in 2018 with signs of ‘promotion fatigue’ among consumers, an increased scepticism regarding the value of the deals on offer and some retailers pulling back from the day all together.  The event is always less significant in the supermarket calendar and this year only 5% of Black Friday deal hunters bought something from a grocer.”

Fraser McKevitt continues: “With the General Election now only days away, people are waiting to fill their cupboards for the festive break and sales of Christmas puddings and seasonal biscuits are down 16% and 12% in the past four weeks compared to a year ago.  But there are some purchases that just can’t wait – £28 million was spent on advent calendars in the past four weeks, up 1% on last year, and sales of fresh and frozen party food rose 7% as our diaries fill up with festive events and gatherings.”

Sales growth of 9.3% during the past 12 weeks propelled Lidl to a new record high market share of 6.1%.  Fraser McKevitt comments: “The good news continues for Lidl and 11.9 million shoppers visited one of its stores in the past three months – that’s 652,000 more than this time last year.  Lidl has been encouraging its customers to make bigger shops, running newspaper voucher deals that offer £10 off when the holder spends £40, and larger baskets over the qualifying spend made up 17% of trips in November.”

Meanwhile, Aldi’s year-on-year growth of 6.2% is worth £129 million in additional sales and takes its market share to 8.0%.  The discounter increased sales of its cheapest ‘Everyday Essentials’ range by 29% during the past 12 weeks but also served customers with a bit more money to spend – selling 15% more of its premium ‘Specially Selected’ range than this time last year.

Co-op achieved growth of 3.6%, with customers spending an extra £12 million in the chilled convenience aisles, on items including pizza, ready meals and cooked meats.  Visitors to the convenience retailer also spent an additional £10 million on fresh fruit, vegetables and salads compared to the same time last year.

The four largest grocers came under further pressure this period with their collective market share dropping to 67.7%, compared with 69.1% this time last year.  Fraser McKevitt comments: “While the big four all lost share in the past 12 weeks, 98% of the British public still visited at least one of their stores during the past three months.  Based on previous years, we expect them to increase their proportion of sales in the coming weeks as shoppers turn to familiar favourites and the traditional retailers in December.”

Tesco was the best performing of the largest grocers over the past 12 weeks though it’s too early to say whether the newly launched Clubcard Plus subscription scheme has had an impact as sales fell by 0.8%.  Sales at Sainsbury’s fell by 1.1% and at Asda by 1.9%, resulting in market shares of 15.7% and 14.6% respectively.  Morrisons’ share of grocery sales dropped back 0.4 percentage points to 10.1% as sales declined by 2.9%.  

Ocado continued to be the fastest growing grocer, with sales 13.7% higher than this time in 2018.  The online retailer is particularly popular with Londoners and its market share in the capital is now 2.6%, almost double its level of 1.4% nationally. 

Iceland’s growth accelerated to 3.2%, its best performance since November 2018, and its share held steady at 2.2%.  While still declining, Waitrose sales fall in sales of 0.8% means its performance has improved for the fifth month in a row.

The preconception is often that in terms of grocery, the ceiling has been reached. But while 20% of all retail spending in the UK is now done online, it is less than 10% for grocery, underlining the potential of the channel.

Our new paper “Opening up Online” uncovers how moving just a fraction of bricks and mortar shopping trips online will generate bigger shops, more spend, and better profits.

Packed with expert viewpoints and fresh insights, pick up your copy today and discover:

• Who buys online and why, and why brands and retailers need to move away from treating online shoppers as a distinct group.
• How to deliver against shoppers’ expectations of a speedy and convenient online service.
• What lessons we can learn from Asia – world leader in online FMCG.

In the exciting future of e-commerce, one thing is for certain: if you don’t do it online, someone else will.

Get your copy of the paper today, and get in touch for an expert assessment of the opportunities e-commerce holds for your brand.

Book your place on our webinar with our expert, Nadya Ardianti, who will share the main findings of the report on Thursday 12 December, at 10:30am.

With the festive season just around the corner, consumers are already shaping up for Christmas feasting. We love to indulge, and healthy choices become less of a priority for us. Health is a factor in 24% of our food and drink choices in December, down from 28% on average throughout the year. The Christmas classics such as roast dinners and sweet treats still have a big role to play, but there’s a growing trend for more functional, smaller festive occasions.

Tis the season to treat ourselves

Given the diminished role of health over Christmas, seasonal products and tasty treats become more important to consumers over the festive period and this is only continuing to grow. Last December, mince pies and boxed chocolates were the big winners, with mince pies consumed on 21% more occasions and boxed chocolates on 17% more. We’re more likely to have these indulgent treats at ‘emotionally engaging’ occasions (such as, a celebration, treat or social occasion). These occasions which tug on our heartstrings are ones we are willing to pay a premium for, providing manufacturers a great opportunity to make hay over the festive period.     

There's snow place like home

While we are still treating ourselves, we’re finding less time to eat out over the festive period, which is down 46 million occasions last Christmas compared with 2017. Not only are we eating more at home, we’re taking more time over our creations, with our time spent preparing main meals increasing from 23 minutes year-round to 42 minutes. This coincides with an increase in scratch cooking, with us becoming 25% more likely to cook from scratch during this period. 

In addition, we’re tending to opt for smaller and more functional gatherings. There were 125 million fewer meals with 5 or more people present over Christmas 2018, and these made up just 8% of occasions as opposed to 11% in 2017. Also, there were 25 million fewer occasions featuring guests than during the previous year, with guests being present at just 3% of all celebrations over the festive period.

Feast your eyes on this

Turkey crowns fared well last year, with larger full turkeys and larger birds not doing so well this year reflecting our need for less food at these smaller and more intimate meals. However, the typical Christmas dinner is still an expensive undertaking. The traditional turkey roast is the most expensive, coming in at £8.25 per occasion during the festive period, more than double what we spend on an average roast dinner throughout the year. 

Consequently, it’s no surprise that we spend more over this period. The average spend per meal was £3.50 in 2018, double the amount we spend on a special occasion throughout the rest of the year.  

What manufacturers and retailers must bear in mind is that as spend goes up, shoppers are more likely to shop across retailers, trying to squeeze more out of our money for the perfect roast dinners. Just 19% of food for our festive roast dinner occasions is sourced from a single retailer, compared with 30% for the rest of the year. 

To try and earn a greater share of the roast dinner occasions, manufacturers and retailers will need to appeal to the growing functional element of Christmas. This could come in the form of easy, pre-prepared vegetable combinations of festive favourites able to feed the whole family, or joint promotions across categories to keep customers in-store.

Chilled fish remains the top performer in MFP and has proven to be resilient to our changing weather. Nathan Ward, Business Unit Director, MFP, explains: “Chilled fish continues the healthy growth we’ve seen in previous periods, with natural products leading the way, selling 846,000 more kilos this year. Growth in natural fish is particularly driven by full price sales, as retailers move away from Y for £X deals and towards price cuts. More pricey fish like salmon (up 14%), and sea bass (up 25%) play a key role in the value growth. A third of the population has bought natural fish in the last 12 weeks, including 363,000 additional shoppers over that period. Breaded products show the fastest growth, bought by 4.6 million shoppers -  257,000 more than last year. Breaded lines are bolstered by promotional support, with sales on deal up 18% year on year as more price cuts hit the market.”

Ward continues:  “Primary meat and poultry products are struggling to find growth this period, with volume up slightly and value sales down, as shoppers move into cheaper cuts and prices fall across the board. Chicken is the top performer in actual terms, with 5.1 million additional kilos purchased year on year, despite falling value sales. Empty nesters and retired shoppers have contributed two thirds of the volume growth for chicken, with both groups buying over 50% more volume on promotion than last year. The key cuts driving growth remain breasts (up 6%) and legs (up 18%), both of which have seen increased promotional investment with significant price cuts supporting the growth. Whole birds continue to decline (down 4%) as 458,000 fewer shoppers put them in their baskets.”

Ward continues:  “Red meat also faces challenges this period with beef, lamb and pork all seeing strong volume declines over the last 12 weeks as fewer shoppers buy them on fewer trips. Beef is seeing the lowest volume decline, with 277,000 fewer shoppers and 730,000 fewer trips, as shoppers buy fewer roasting joints (down 10%), mince (-2%) and stewing beef (-6%). Roasts continue their long term decline and have been promoted less over this period which has led to falling base sales. The shoppers behind these losses, empty nesters and retired, are the same shoppers driving growth for chicken. Mince has seen more price cut promotions (+27%), but their success has been to the detriment of full price sales (down 15%). Mince prices are down 15p per kilo, but we are still seeing losses of 283,000 shoppers year on year.”

Lamb is seeing the steepest decline with 352,000 fewer shoppers and smaller baskets as younger shoppers (34 and under) buy less lamb compared to last year. Roasting lamb is down with lamb leg (-13%) and shoulder (-23%) key to the overall decline – promotions are low on these joints, showing the potential of discounts to drive seasonal uplifts. Steaks are the other area of concern, with volume sales down 19% as promotions decline compared to last year.

Ward continues:  “Processed meat and poultry also faces challenging market conditions despite Halloween and National Sausage week falling during this period. We’ve seen volumes struggle, with only burgers and grills buck the trend, with an increase in promotions (+55%) encouraging shoppers to pick them up on 4.3 million more trips this year as 1.1 million more shoppers enter the market this year. All shopper groups are driving this growth with families with children aged 5 or over, and empty nesters key to the performance.”

Christmas is round the corner, and we know that the last 8 weeks of the year bring some massive changes to shopper behaviour.  Will we see an early move to the cosy winter warmers we all know and love, or will we see shoppers continue to pull back in the MFP categories? Look out for our next update in 4 weeks time to find out more.

Milk has seen a turnaround in performance; while still in decline, it has halved the value losses seen last period, recouping £5.4 million. Cheese is seeing a downturn of £1.9 million compared with our last update, despite having been in period on period growth since August. Margarine is back in the spotlight as performance worsens, and has contributed £2.4m less to the market’s growth over the past 12 weeks - four times that of the previous period.

All retailers are seeing growth in dairy, with Waitrose turning around performance, taking £2.3 million more spend compared to last period due to a strong performance in cheese. Nevertheless, Waitrose overall is continuing the slight decline of £1.8m year on year. Sainsbury’s on the other hand sees sales slump to the tune of £10m year on year. This has been worsening since August with the retailer contributing £2.2 million less to market growth over the last two periods. This seems to be driven predominantly by yoghurt, where spend has fallen back by £2.9m year on year.

Londoners are spending more on dairy (up £16.2 million year on year), which is driving growth at a total market level. Shoppers in the lower socio-economic groups (D&E), Pre-Family and Empty Nesters (up £4.3m and £3.3 million respectively) make a particularly positive contribution.

Non promoted sales continue to dominate the market and are growing £4.8 million year on year, as well as £10 million compared with last period. There has been less use of temporary price reduction promotions, which saw £25 million less spend compared with our last update, but these have largely been replaced with Y for £X deals (up £20 million). As Sainsbury’s pull back on TPR promotions, this has negatively impacted the retailer’s performance in the last 12 weeks particularly. However, year on year, yoghurt sales are declining through both base sales and TPR – with the competition of more volume deals being available in the wider market potentially starting to affect the retailer.

This period saw an increased focus on seasonal events and promotions, as Fraser McKevitt, head of retail and consumer insight at Kantar comments: “The final quarter of the year is associated with holidays and festivities, and retailers are always looking for ways to capitalise on seasonal events to attract shoppers.  This year pumpkin sales were up by 6% in October as the public geared up for Halloween – with more than a tenth of British households taking one home.  In the past decade pumpkin sales have increased by 62% – a telling barometer of how retailers have found success by increasing focus on seasonal spend.”

Following Halloween, consumer and retailer attention has already turned to Christmas, with £17 million spent on mince pies and £3 million on Christmas puddings so far this year.  Fraser McKevitt continues: “It’s never too early to start thinking about Christmas, particularly for grocery retailers.  With many supermarkets already unveiling their festive advertising campaigns, the starting gun has been fired on the race to be Christmas number one.  It should come as no surprise to see the grocers jostling for position early – with the average household expected to spend more than £380 on groceries during December.  In total, shoppers will spend nearly £11 billion in that month alone, showing how it’s a crucial period for retailers.”

Co-op has grown continuously since May 2018 and sales increased again this period with year-on-year growth currently standing at 4.4%.  Fraser McKevitt explains: “Co-op welcomed an additional 274,000 shoppers through its doors in the past 12 weeks – fruit and vegetables proved particularly popular as fresh produce sales increased by 10%.  The retailer stayed true to its convenience-focused roots as chilled items like pizza grew by 8%, helping to increase its market share to 6.5%.”

Lidl recently announced its intention to open over 200 new stores in the next three years and was the fastest growing bricks and mortar retailer this period with sales up by 8.8%.  It has made a concerted push to encourage larger trips this year, and its vouchering scheme helped to boost several ‘big shop’ categories, including alcohol where sales rose by 18%.  Fellow discounter Aldi also won market share, with sales growth of 6.7% and now accounts for 8.0% of grocery sales.  Aldi boasted the fastest growing premium own label line on the market – its ‘Specially Selected’ range grew by 17.2%.

Slowing growth in the overall market meant the four largest retailers struggled to make gains.  Sales at Asda and Morrisons fell by 1.2% and 1.7% respectively, while Sainsbury’s and Tesco proved slightly more resilient.  Fraser McKevitt says: “After a positive month last time around, Sainsbury’s sales were down by 0.2% in the past 12 weeks, with its market share falling back slightly to 15.6%.  Meanwhile, Tesco saw sales fall by 0.6%.  The UK’s largest supermarket recently unveiled its new ‘Clubcard Plus’ offer which gives subscribers 10% off two large shops each month.  Some 1.8 million households made at least two trips to the retailer worth £50 or more in the past four weeks, a number Tesco will be looking to boost through its latest initiative.”

Iceland’s market share stayed level at 2.1% following sales growth of 1.6% this period.  Fraser McKevitt elaborates: “Iceland sought to reinforce its reputation as a community-conscious operator this month by offering members of the Armed Forces and NHS staff a 20% discount for a limited time.  Coupled with its commitments around plastic waste and palm oil in the past 12 months, the campaign shows a growing focus on community and sustainability issues at the retailer.”

Elsewhere, Waitrose sales declined by 0.9%, taking its market share to 5.0%.  Meanwhile online specialist Ocado was again the fastest growing grocer, with sales up by 13.5% compared to a year ago.

On average, consumers made three fewer trips to any out of home outlet (including restaurants, cafés, bakeries, sandwich shops and supermarket ‘to go’ aisles) over the 12 weeks to 6 October 2019 than they did the same time last year.  Sit down restaurants found it most difficult to attract and retain customers, with sales declining by 9.9%.

While growth may be harder to come by, changing habits are also presenting opportunities and lessons for the sector.  The growth that does exist in the out of home dining market is largely down to a desire for ease and practicality.  As a result supermarkets, convenience retailers and quick-service restaurants all increased value sales in this 12-week period as consumers opted for meals that don’t eat into their day.  There were six million more ‘quick’ trips made this period and 83 million more which shoppers perceived as ‘easy to come by’.  

Lucy Chapman, strategic insight director at Kantar, comments: “Three years of political and economic uncertainty have taken their toll on the British public.  Their behaviours and priorities have understandably changed and stalling market growth shows that things have come to a head.

“Meals out of home motivated by health reasons – often considered to be more expensive – have fallen by 1% in the past 12 weeks as price becomes more important for consumers.  This mirrors the patterns seen after the 2008 financial crash and are likely to continue, so the sector needs to tap into this shifting mood to stay relevant in the current market.”

While the frequency of eating out might be down in the current climate, people are more likely to have an occasional indulgence and meals bought as a treat or reward were up 6.6% in the past 12 weeks.   Lucy Chapman continues: “Consumers always want to have the option to treat themselves, regardless of budget.  However, we know that they’re also trading down – so those outlets at the lower end of the scale need to make sure they’re offering something that feels special.  This is especially true for the big high street chains that are showing signs of struggle, and who must not rely on the same menu for months at a time if they want to get people through the door – particularly as we head towards Christmas, which tends to be a quieter time for the sector.”

*Worldpanel Out of Home data for the 12 weeks to 6 October 2019.  

The fashion industry is no stranger to controversy in this area, having long attracted attention for its impact on the environment. The BBC’s recent documentary ‘Fashion’s Dirty Secrets’ highlighted the environmental consequences of fast fashion, and in September, protestors staged a funeral procession to draw attention to the use of animal products on London Fashion Week’s runways.

Our new survey of 10,532 UK fashion shoppers uncovers their attitudes towards sustainability in fashion and finds a fifth of respondents believe fashion is one of the industries which has the greatest impact on the environment. Though some shoppers believe that other industries like transportation are more of a concern, retailers and brands can no longer ignore the impact of this growing issue as the spotlight turns towards fashion.

Responsibility to act

So who should be making steps towards change? Our study found 55% of shoppers agree that retailers should be taking responsibility, not only through adopting more sustainable behaviours but also actions that tackle environmental impact long-term. In fact, of those respondents who said the fashion industry does not have a big impact, over 80% still feel it is important for brands to be making their products more sustainable.

Despite this, only 13% could identify a retailer or brand that they felt actively sought to reduce its environmental impact. Of those that were picked out were the market leader, Marks & Spencer, along with high street stalwarts Primark and Next, and relatively smaller retailers H&M, Zara and Seasalt. These smaller retailers are punching well above their weight in terms of impact on consumer attitudes – with the percentage of mentions from respondents outstripping their market share. So, while retailers may already be making a conscious effort to reduce their impact, the results show more evidence of this needs to be visible to their already concerned consumers.

Sustainability and spending power

With consumers demanding change from retailers, how do they feel about their own role in moving towards a more sustainable approach to fashion? Our survey found 36% of consumers would agree to pay a higher price when purchasing from retailers they deem to be ethical, as well as for environmentally-friendly packaging and natural materials. These shoppers are spending 9% more a year than average, demonstrating an opportunity for retailers with strong green credentials.

In contrast, shoppers state that they are less likely to pay more if products are swapped to incorporate recycled or ‘vegan’ materials in replacement of suede, leather or wool. This demonstrates consumers are happy to pay more, as long as they feel the perceived quality of their purchases has not been compromised. Another opportunity therefore is for retailers to lead the way in educating shoppers that products made from recycled materials are just as good and much better for the environment.

Changing our ways

Although shoppers feel strongly that change needs to come from the retailers, they also accept a level of personal responsibility. Some 42% of consumers also agree that they have a responsibility for minimising the fashion industry’s impact on the environment too. And they are acting upon this; 57% of shoppers claim to only buy clothing when necessary and over a third say they buy vintage or second-hand items. This is corroborated by the significant fall in fashion purchases made by shoppers over the past five years, which has resulted in 168 million fewer units sold now than in 2015.

With consumers minimising their fashion purchases in response to environmental concerns, it is even more important for retailers to reach out to those shoppers who are still willing to buy new items with a compelling, and sustainable, offer. ‘Make do and mend’ repair services within stores, for example, give consumers an opportunity to not only give a fresh lease of life to their existing wardrobe, but also tempt shoppers instore with a new experience.

At present, while it may seem that other areas are attracting more scrutiny – such as meat consumption and plastic bag usage - it will not be long before the fashion industry faces a reckoning of its own. For a retailer to succeed in an already struggling market, it will be crucial to have a full understanding of its shoppers and how they are likely to respond as sustainability in fashion continues to gain salience.

Featuring expert views, case studies and practical insights, Show me the Shoppers uncovers how to convince more shoppers to buy your brand.

The building blocks for brand growth

Once you've established that brand growth comes from new shoppers, and set a realistic target, it's time to explore routes to growth in your heartlands:

• Increasing the availability of your products 
• Winning head to head with your competition
• Being chosen in more consumption moments
• Playing in other categories

Going beyond grocery

The size of the prize could be even bigger if you look outside your traditional selling spaces to find those elusive shoppers beyond grocery. There’s 21 billion opportunities for your brand to be purchased in any given year, and most brands are only considering half of them.

The average Brit goes to the supermarket four and a half times a week. This doubles to nine times a week if all other shopping trips are included, and increases to ten or eleven with the addition of online purchases. 

Find opportunities with Worldpanel Plus

It is crucial to think about all of the places that people shop but where your brand is not sold. Our Worldpanel Plus service helps you push the boundaries of where your brand is sold, opening up opportunities everywhere that people shop. 

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Last period the August bank holiday provided a shot in the arm for the category, but that impact has lessened over the last four weeks, with primary meat seeing slower volume growth, and accelerated volume decline in processed lines. Nathan Ward, Business Unit Director, MFP, explains: “Primary red meat is suffering in the latest 12 weeks, with beef, lamb and pork all in decline as a result of attracting fewer shoppers. At the same time chicken and fish show strong volume growth, as more shoppers buy into those markets. Processed products continue to suffer in meat, fish and poultry, though burgers still show growth as a result of the halo of this summer’s great August Bank Holiday.”

Ward continues: “Chicken stands out among the primary meat and poultry categories, with 6.2m more trips this year and 208,000 more shoppers. Breasts and legs - up 8% and 19% respectively - are the cuts to watch, with strong growth driven by more shoppers and more trips. Promotions are fuelling growth here, with chicken breasts seeing a 46% increase in promotions as price cuts double. Promoted sales of legs are up 158% with price cuts trebled compared with last year.”

The 3.5% decline in value sales of beef is a big swing away from the rosier picture last month, and only mince saw any volume growth over the last 12 weeks - featuring in 608,000 more trips, despite losing 149,000 shoppers. The growth of mince has been driven by more promotions (+15%), with price cuts up 39%. Lamb has also seen a reversal in fortunes, seeing decline driven by roasting joints and steaks. Lamb has lost 182,000 shoppers but has some bright spots, such as marinades which are growing at 39%.

Pork has tipped into volume decline with 296,000 fewer shoppers and featuring in 1.99 million fewer trips. Promotions account for one in every five kilograms of pork sold, but have reduced by 8% year on year. Pork steaks are the key driver of decline, followed by loin roasts. Steaks are seeing 405,000 fewer shoppers, with 1.4 million fewer trips as pre-family and empty nesters buy less often, driven by 31% less volume on promotion.  Ward continues:  “Bacon continues to struggle with 4.3 million fewer trips, and decline in spend across all demographics. Promotions remain a key element in this, accounting for 30% of volume sales, and having decreased by 15% on last year. Burgers and grills bounce back as the August bank holiday weather drove a huge uplift in sales. Promotions have helped to drive this performance as they have risen 52% as we’ve seen more price cuts driving promotions up to 44% of all volume sold.”

Ward continues:  “Chilled fish remains the fastest growing of the categories, with volume up 4.7% on last year. This performance is bolstered by strong performances from natural fillets (+11%), breaded fish (+13%) and smoked fish (+6%). Chilled fish featured in 4.8m more trips as more shoppers bought it more often. Promotions are helping drive the category growth, accounting for 31% of volume as the mix of promotions moves towards more price cuts (+31%) and away from volume deals (-21%). Shoppers in the post family life stages are driving growth, with retired shoppers - the largest group -growing ahead of the market. Salmon and pollock are the key contributors to growth, with sea bass, trout and basa growing strongly from smaller bases. Natural fish remains the powerhouse of the category and this is where salmon and sea bass are driving growth, as the sector increases price cuts 21%. Smoked growth is driven by promotions which are up 37%, but overall prices are up in the category as these promotions encourage trading up.”

Brexit continues to be a big unknown, and the uncertainty is a concern for farmers, processors and retailers looking to plan for the future. Fresh MFP is not likely to be stockpiled, and frozen categories are not seeing growth. Find out in our next update where the market is moving and what are the movers and shakers in this highly changeable market.

Half of the sectors in dairy are contributing to the positive performance in the market, with cheese and cream standing out in comparison with the previous 12 weeks. On the other hand, the contribution to decline in milk worsened to the tune of £3.6m.

Most retailers are seeing an improvement in contribution to dairy growth with only Sainsbury’s, Waitrose and Aldi making a negative contribution. Sainsbury’s and Waitrose fare the worst, with contribution declining by £4.1 million and £1.6 million respectively. Interestingly, Aldi’s growth slows for the fourth period in a row. The sectors driving the contribution to decline in Sainsbury’s are yoghurt (-£1.4 million vs last period), eggs (-£1.2 million) and milk (£-1 million). Cheese contributes to overall market growth, with sales up 3.5%, contribution to growth coming from Morrison’s, Co-Operative and Iceland.

There’s a trend of contribution from shoppers in the lower socio-economic (C2DE) groups decreasing, which continues this period but has slowed, resulting in a positive change in contribution of £2.8 million. Shoppers across most life stages see positive change in contribution with pre-family seeing the biggest change and reducing their decline by £3.3m. The strong performance of cheese is driven by contribution growth in upmarket (AB) shoppers (£2.3m) and retirees (£1.9m), a steady trend seen across the last four 12 week periods.    

The growth in dairy overall comes mainly through full price sales (£6.4m) and an uptick in Y for £X promotions (£6.9m), despite the latter’s decline period on period. Price reductions have been pulled back resulting in -£11m less vs previous 12 weeks. Cheese is growing predominantly through base sales (£3.3m) but also Y for £X promotions (£1.2m).

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Fraser McKevitt, head of retail and consumer insight at Kantar, comments: “The grocery market seems to have finally edged out from under the shadow of 2018 and tough comparisons with the strong summer sales of last year.  Sainsbury’s performance reflects this – increasing sales at its fastest rate since October 2018 to make it the only big four retailer to achieve growth.  The grocer recently announced plans to phase out its value ‘Basics’ line which made it into 12% of shopping baskets during the past 12 weeks, so it will be interesting to see how replacement brands like ‘Stamford Street’ and
‘J James and family’ fare as they become more widely available.”

As growth accelerates in the overall market, Brexit uncertainty continues and Fraser McKevitt explains: “Well-documented concerns about the availability of popular products in the event of a no-deal Brexit have not yet translated into a consistent increase in purchasing.  Sales of dry pasta and healthcare products over the past four weeks were 9% and 7% higher than the same time last year, but those of canned products fell by 2% and frozen food by 1%.  While a quarter of British consumers say they are considering stockpiling*, it seems they are waiting to see how the next few weeks play out and we expect if they take any action it will be closer to the deadline if a chaotic trading situation looks increasingly likely.

“One event people are already planning for on 31 October is Halloween, spending a collective £1.5 million on pumpkins in the past 12 weeks.  Those sales are 29% higher than at this point before Halloween last year and retailers should be taking note and aiming to capitalise on the celebration in the coming weeks.”

The proportion of sales on promotion increased for the first time in nearly four and a half years this period to 32.3%, driven by Tesco’s ‘100 years of value’ campaign and Sainsbury’s ‘Price Lockdown’.  The performances of Tesco, Asda and Morrisons all improved compared with last month, but sales are still down year on year.  Tesco sales declined by 0.2% as its market share was reduced to 27.0% and Fraser McKevitt comments: “The announcement that Dave Lewis will depart as Tesco chief executive next year has inspired inevitable reflection on his tenure and it’s worth noting that the retailer’s sales were in freefall when he joined in September 2014 – dropping 4.5% year on year.  Since then Tesco’s absolute and relative performance has improved and profitability has returned, but its market share is down from 28.8% at the start of his time there.”

Sales at Asda fell by 0.9% during the past 12 weeks, dropping 0.3 percentage points of market share to 15.0%, while Morrisons remains behind the rest of the pack, declining by 1.8% with a market share of 9.9%.

Lidl and Aldi continue to gain share and Fraser McKevitt comments: “The discounters now account for a combined 14% of UK grocery sales which is 0.8% percentage points higher than last year, an increase that’s worth nearly one billion pounds annually.  While traditionally known for its own label ranges, Lidl’s 8.2% growth was boosted by sales of branded goods which grew twice as quickly. 

“Meanwhile, Aldi grew by 7.3% during the past 12 weeks as it attracted more new customers than any other retailer with 689,000 additional shoppers.  Its small but growing ‘Everyday Essentials’ also added an extra £18 million in sales.”

Co-op grew at its fastest rate since April at 3.9% as the convenience retailer’s £5 ‘Super saver deal’ drove up sales of fresh pizza by 20% and ice cream by 17%. 

Online specialist Ocado continued its run as Britain’s fastest-growing supermarket – a position it’s held since May 2019 – as its growth sped up slightly to 13.3%.

Iceland sales rose by 0.5%, supported by widely available coupons, while Waitrose declined by 1.1% and its market share slipped 0.1 percentage points to 5.1%.

 *Kantar Brexit Barometer.  A total of 1,144 interviews were conducted online among adults living in Great Britain between 5 and 9 of September 2019. 

An update on inflation

Grocery inflation now stands at 0.8%† for the 12-week period ending 6 October 2019. Prices have been rising since the 12 weeks to 1 January 2017, following a period of grocery price deflation which ran for 30 consecutive periods from September 2014 to December 2016. Prices are rising fastest in markets such as canned fish, crisps and frozen fish, while falling in canned cola, instant coffee and chilled fruit juices.

Ahead of the previously agreed leaving date in March, Kantar took an in-depth look at the implications for FMCG suppliers and retailers.

It remains to be seen if Britain really will leave on Halloween, and if so on what terms. But even though the deadline for reaching a deal has moved, the implications explored in our whitepaper are more relevant for businesses now than ever.

The fundamental challenges remain the same ones of logistics, staffing, prices, and how consumers respond to the uncertainty and economic turbulence.

One thing that has moved on is the openness with which firms are now talking practically about Brexit. Tesco and other leading supermarkets have warned of the challenges of warehousing extra non-perishable stocks in the run up to Christmas. Sainsbury’s, among others, pointed out that there is nearly no capacity or ability to stockpile fresh foods at all. There are even signs that strategic business decisions are now being taken in response; one major UK food brand was recently sold off, with the owner citing ‘a reduction in exposure to Brexit' as a motivation.

Download our whitepaper “The impact of Brexit on UK grocery industry and shoppers" for an expert viewpoint on the key challenges and decisions for retail.

The August bank holiday spread some cheer over the MFP categories, with burgers returning to growth alongside all primary meat and poultry categories. Volume sales are up across the board except in bacon, sausages, fresh processed poultry, sliced cooked meats and added value fish.  Nathan Ward, Business Unit Director, MFP, explains: “We often talk about how the weather can be a kingmaker for MFP, and we certainly see that the sunnier late summer has been a boon to the market, which is in strong growth. Burgers are a great example of this effect, seeing 26% growth in volume sales compared to the same four weeks last year. This has turned the negative outlook last month into a much more positive situation for the market which recruited 529,000 more shoppers and added 3.6 million trips compared with last year.”

Ward continues:  “We have seen continued growth from primary products, which had been struggling in recent months. Among the big four proteins, beef leads the pack in volume terms followed by chicken and lamb. Beef’s resurgence can be put down to the continued growth of mince and a return to autumnal tastes, with roasting joints and stews picking up. Beef has seen falling prices in part due to the changing mix of the category, but also as sales on promotions rise - with price cuts up 25%. These dynamics result in 1.6 million more shopping trips including beef compared with last year. Steaks continue to struggle, seeing 1.6 million fewer trips as full price sales fall away as a result of prices rising 84p per kilo on average.”

Lamb is also in growth, driven by existing shoppers making a million more trips. Steaks, marinades and shoulder joints are all key to this performance, which is particularly strong among empty nesters and retired households. Families with children over five are a key area of growth and help to bolster the strong growth from lamb’s heartland, older shoppers. Promotions - particularly price cuts - are also giving lamb a boost, with sales on promotion up by 30%, though growing from a small base.

Chilled fish is the fastest growing of the categories, with volume up 4.3% on last year. This performance is propelled by natural fillets and breaded fish, with shellfish and smoked fish also starting to see volumes lift. The category saw 4.7 million more trips, and promotional volumes up 5% on last year. Price cut promotions are prompting sales here, although in natural fish growth has been driven by full price sales with strong performances from salmon, sea bass and basa.

Breaded fish continues to see strong growth and is closing in on shellfish and smoked fish in terms of volumes sold. Cod and haddock dominate this category and contribute strongly to its growth. Ward continues: “Fish sales continue to be dominated by older empty nester or retired households that account for over 60% of the volume, but more of the growth. There’s therefore a huge opportunity to be found in targeting pre family households and young families.”

The current inescapable economic and political uncertainty casts a long shadow over the market.  MFP products are not readily stockpiled, and sales of fresh product will be heavily impacted by the disruption expected over coming months. Find out our next update if the market can sustain its strong performance in this turbulent environment.

Commenting on the findings, Oliver Bluring, Category Manager, Kantar, said: “Almost all dairy sectors have contributed to the market’s worsening performance, with cheese and cream the only bright spots. Margarine fares the worst, with the decline of the category deepening by £4.7 million.”

Most retailers also make a lesser contribution to the market’s overall performance, with only Waitrose, Ocado and M&S seeing improvement. Tesco and Aldi in particular see their contributions to growth worsen by £4.5 million and £3 million respectively. In margarine, the decline is fairly widespread, though Tesco suffers the worst, with the retailer’s sales falling by a further £1.7 million compared with last month.

Oliver Bluring continues: “There is a reversal of fortunes among more affluent Class ABC1 shoppers, who last period saw an increase in their growth but now see this fall off by £10.4 million. All life stages - aside from older dependents - also see a step down in their performance, with spend from retired shoppers falling fastest. All demographics are spending less on margarine, again with the biggest drop offs among ABC1 and retired shoppers.”

In terms of promotions, there’s an improved performance from sales on temporary price reduction (+£9.5 million) though this is more than offset by a weaker performance from Y for £X deals (-£10.1 million) and full price sales (-£12.5 million). For margarine, declines are evident across promoted and non promoted sales, though the biggest losses are among full prices sales which decline by a further £3.5 million.

Brand loyalty

It has been another year of disruption for Scottish brands, which continue to grapple with the changing retail landscape and shifting shopper behaviour. 

Despite these challenges, brands are in rude health in Scotland. Over the course of the year, shoppers spent £164 more on brands per person than the average Briton. Brands also take a higher share of total spend in Scotland when compared to Britain overall, and are growing faster than supermarket own label ranges.

The five most chosen brands in Scotland remain; Warburtons in the top spot, followed by Heinz, McVities, Coca Cola and Hovis, with no change in the top five compared with last year. Snapping at the heels of the top 20 most chosen brands in Scotland are McLelland, Bells, AG Barr and Tunnock’s.

Hometown glory

When it comes to the most popular Scottish brands, the top two retain their places in the ranking. Irn Bru retains its number one position, with Grahams Family Dairy not far behind in second place. The brand’s NPD portfolio has helped it to gain ground and expand into health-focused categories such as high protein yoghurt and ice cream, and cottage cheese.

The Free From category continues its ascent and Nairns makes an appearance at position 20 on the ranking as its portfolio develops to address this market.

Healthy growth

Government intervention, whether in the form of Minimum Unit Pricing or the sugar tax is having a widespread impact on consumer choices. High sugar products set to remain in the spotlight as the government takes action to tackle obesity, and the non-alcoholic and low alcohol sector continues to grow as the population looks to moderate drinking habits. As a result, brands need to appeal to consumers who are actively trying to follow a healthier lifestyle.

Green dream

As consumers become ever more aware of the environmental impact of their choices, brands and retailers will need to demonstrate they are looking ways to address these concerns. Whether that's by taking action on packaging, or catering to the increasing number of flexitarians in the population, sustainability is set to exert a broad influence over the coming years.

Download the report today to read the full ranking of the most chosen brands in Scotland. Get in touch for more infomation on how we can help you to ensure your brand is the one shoppers choose when they're at the shelf.

While overall sales grew by 0.5%, volume sales remained flat and Fraser McKevitt, head of retail and consumer insight at Kantar, comments: “As we move closer to 31 October, it seems talk about stockpiling might be just that because we’re not seeing any evidence of it at the moment.  In fact, households bought 0.9% fewer items during the past 12 weeks than they did last year.”

The August Bank Holiday brought some overdue sunshine and Fraser McKevitt comments: “All summer, retailers have faced tough comparisons with last year’s heatwave and disappointing weather has made it hard for them match the highs of 2018.  The forecast for August Bank Holiday was more than welcome and shoppers made the most of it being the hottest one on record, spending £1.3 billion from Friday through to Sunday, which was marginally more than last year.” 

Tesco and Sainsbury’s became the latest retailers to make high-profile announcements about reducing plastic packaging.  Fraser McKevitt explains: “The plastic issue isn’t going away and the public continues to put pressure on brands to make meaningful changes.  It’s clear there is still work to be done because, despite the various pledges, only 16%* of people can name a retailer that is doing ‘a lot’ to reduce its plastic waste.  Worse still, only 10% can name a grocery brand making significant strides.”  

Lidl reached a new record high market share and Fraser McKevitt comments: “Lidl has crossed the 6% market share line for the first time, and an additional 618,000 shoppers visited the retailer compared with last year, helped by store openings, refurbishments and its newspaper voucher deals.  Having moved through the 5% barrier as recently as May 2017, the retailer has taken just over two years to add another percentage point to its market share – one that’s worth £1.2 billion annually.”

Meanwhile, Aldi increased sales by 6.3% and Fraser McKevitt says: “Aldi’s strongest growth came from the south of England where sales increased by nearly 9%.  The discounter’s lowest market share continues to be in London, where it only accounts for 3.3% of grocery sales, so it’s unsurprising that this week it announced plans to more than double its number of stores within the M25.”

The other bricks-and-mortar retailer in growth this period was Co-op, increasing its sales by 1.8%.  One third of British households made a trip to the convenience retailer during the past three months, visiting the store nearly twice a week on average.  

Ocado was again the fastest growing retailer.  Fraser McKevitt comments: “With one year to go until Ocado starts selling M&S products alongside its own lines and national brands, sales at Ocado were up by 12.7%.  Ice cream, cheese and sparkling wine all experienced growth in excess of 20%.”

This was Sainsbury’s strongest period since October 2018 and it was the best performing of the big four retailers for the second month in a row, despite marginal sales decline of 0.1%.  Sainsbury’s increased its rate of sales on promotion faster than any other retailer with its Price Lockdown strategy lowering prices on meat and fresh produce in particular.  

Sales at Asda and Tesco fell by 1.0% and 1.4% respectively and Fraser McKevitt explains: “There were bright spots for Tesco including sales of free-from products, which were up 11%, and its own value lines like Redmere Farms and Creamfields as sales of these ranges totalled over a third of a billion pounds.”

Morrisons market share dipped below double digits at 9.9% as sales fell by 2.0%.  Waitrose sales declined by 1.3% and Iceland by 2.0% taking market shares to 5.0% and 2.1% respectively.

An update on inflation

Grocery inflation now stands at 1.0%† for the 12-week period ending 8 September 2019. Prices have been rising since the 12 weeks to 1 January 2017, following a period of grocery price deflation which ran for 30 consecutive periods from September 2014 to December 2016. Prices are rising fastest in markets such as crisps, canned fish and frozen fish, while falling in canned cola, chilled fruit juices and instant coffee.

Nathan Ward, Business Unit Director, MFP, explains: “The summer of extremes has driven some big changes in behaviour with shoppers pulling back on traditional summer categories like Burgers, Sausages and Sliced Cooked Meats. There has been a shift towards buying more primary products, especially red meat which has struggled in previous years. As we highlighted last month, summer eating has been a major focus for retailers with lots of good innovation, but they haven’t enjoyed the best weather to drive growth. Burgers have seen the greatest decline after huge growth in 2018, but sales are still ahead of 2017 (up 10% with 890,000 more shoppers over the two years). Over the latest 12 weeks, Burgers have seen 236,000 fewer shoppers, with smaller baskets driving the decline. The reduction in basket size is partly a result of 5% fewer sales on promotion, including retailer moves into more price cuts (+10%) and fewer volume deals (-16%). A silver lining is a better performance from burgers in the last 4 weeks”.

The real winners in MFP this summer are the primary proteins, with all categories seeing volumes grow except Duck and more speciality poultry. Ward continues: “Beef and Lamb are seeing a much stronger performance in the short term, with lower prices helping to drive volume ahead of value. The performance of Beef has been driven by Mince (+10%) and Marinades (+14%). Mince growth has been driven by 4.4m more trips as promotions increased by +6%, focused on price cuts. We are also seeing long term growth of lower fat mince. Lamb has seen the strongest performance overall, driven by almost 300,000 more shoppers and 1.3m more trips.

Volumes of Lamb on promotion are up 25% with more price cuts and volume deals selling through. Promotions only account for 13% of sales though, so base sales are also key to growth, up 5% year on year. Sales of Lamb Steaks, Roasting Joints and Mince are all substantially up. Roasting growth has come from both Leg (+12%) and Shoulder (+22%), with non-promoted sales key to the resurgence. Pork and Chicken are growing behind the market in value and volume, but are still seeing growth over the summer as shoppers buy more pork roasting joints, pork mince and chicken Legs/Wings.”

Ward continues: “Chilled Fish has seen growth flatten over the last few months, but there has been stronger volume performance this period as shoppers buy more Natural fillet and continue to pick up more fresh battered and breaded fish. In line with the wider market, the more processed options have seen volumes stall, with added value products flat in volume terms, and heavily down in value terms. The category overall has grown through almost 3.1m more trips and 427,000 more buyers. Retired shoppers are key to the market and are driving growth up 6% year on year.”

As the days become shorter, will we see a move into autumnal behaviours, or will there be a late rally in summer sales? We can’t predict the weather, but do anticipate more interesting MFP trends over the next few months, so keep reading our updates to find out more.

The performance of the specific dairy sectors has been mixed, as despite the overall improvement seen by the category, the likes of butter, eggs, margarine, milk, yoghurts and yoghurt drinks have seen notable downturn in performance. The key driver of the market’s improved performance has been cheese, which sees an improvement in 12-week growth of £9.2 million.

The mixed results for dairy were also replicated across most of the retailers, Olly Blurring, Client Manger comments: “Asda (-£4.9m), Morrisons (-£1.2m), Waitrose (-£0.9m) and Aldi (-£2.7m) all see a fall-back in their contribution to growth, whilst Tesco (+£5.4m) and Sainsbury’s (+£3.0m) were the biggest improvers for the sector. In proportion to their size, M&S’s growth of +£1.3m is impressive. However, almost all the retailers have seen an improvement when it comes to cheese,”

This varied performance is evident once again when looking at shopper demographics, with spend from class C2DE (-£2.2m) falling back,  and ABC1 shoppers spending more (+£2.6m). Spend from pre-family, young family and those with older dependents is in decline while all other life stages see an improvement. Within cheese specifically, spend is on the rise for all demographics, though spend from families with children aged five to nine is flat.

The cheese sector sees fewer sales on promotion - Y for £X and price reduction mechanisms - with growth coming through full price sales. Looking at the overall dairy market we see full price sales are in decline along with Y for £X promotions, with price cut promotions on the rise.

James Foti, consumer insight director at Kantar, said: “We hear time and time again that this is the year of the podcast, with established players looking to get their slice of the action.  Podcasts are really becoming an established channel and marketers need to understand the role they play in the marketing mix.  Our new service will for the first time give a clear picture of who podcast listeners are, what other media they engage with and even where they last shopped.”

Insight available on a four-weekly basis from September 2019 will cover demographics, what platform podcast listeners are using, the genres they are listening to and for how long.  Alongside a historical dataset tracking panellist’s usage of music streaming and other media, this will give media buyers and brands unprecedented understanding of podcast listeners and how to target them effectively.

The new service is an addition to Kantar’s 15,000-strong lifestyle panel in the UK, making it a robust and continuous read which can be flexible to subscribers’ needs, and gives a rounded picture of podcast listeners’ behaviour, whether that’s the last film they saw in the cinema, their favourite websites and TV channels or their favourite fashion brand.

As part of the service, Kantar also plans to run a twice-annual deep dive into podcasts, with the aim of understanding the triggers and barriers to when it comes to listening to them.

Fraser McKevitt, head of retail and consumer insight at Kantar, comments: “The memory of last year still looms large for retailers and this summer’s comparatively poor weather, combined with low levels of like-for-like price rises, have made growth hard to find for retailers.

“July’s hottest day on record wasn’t enough to shift the market into growth, but the grocers will have been encouraged by glimpses of better weather during the past four weeks which helped boost sales of summer staples like hayfever remedies, suncare and burgers by 17%, 8% and 5% respectively.”

Lidl’s sales increased by 7.7% and the discounter reached a record market share of 5.9% during the past 12 weeks.  Fraser McKevitt explains: “Lidl’s raft of new store openings has helped it attract 489,000 additional shoppers this period.  Its campaign to encourage people to do their main weekly shop at Lidl is making an impact and the average basket spend is now nearly £19, 3% higher than last year, though still significantly lower than the £22.65 average spend at the big four.  While best known for its own-label products, branded lines at Lidl grew by 19% this period and now account for 13% of the discounter’s sales with a strong presence for alcohol, toiletries, household products and soft drinks."

Meanwhile, sales at rival Aldi increased by 6.2%, supported by sales of bakery products, up 11%, and biscuits, up 13%.   Fraser McKevitt comments: “Nearly half of all households shopped in an Aldi during the past 12 weeks, showing the extent to which the discounter has established itself in our retail landscape – this figure increases even further to 58.4% in the north of England where the retailer is most popular.” 

Once again Ocado claimed the top spot as the UK’s fastest growing grocer, increasing sales by 12.6% this period.  The online retailer increased its shopper base by 7% and encouraged its customers to spend £1.93 more each delivery.  Ocado’s share of the total grocery market now stands at 1.4%, while it commands 18% of all online supermarket sales.

In a tough market, Co-op also found growth: sales are 0.2% higher compared with a year ago.  Its new high-profile £3.50 burger and beer deal, which encourages shoppers to opt for barbecue favourites despite the weather, has helped bring customers into its stores more often.  At the other end of price spectrum, sales of the convenience retailer’s premium Irresistible range grew by 11% driven by strong performances for crisps and snacks, cheese and fruit.

Sainsbury’s accounted for 15.4% of supermarket sales this period.  Fraser McKevitt continues: “While each of the big four lost share, Sainsbury’s will be cheered to be the strongest performer among this cohort for the first time since November 2017.  Bucking the market-wide own-label trend, sales of branded goods at Sainsbury’s rose by 1.5%, driven by higher levels of promotion and its price lockdown strategy.”

Asda and Tesco’s sales shrunk by 1.5% and 1.6% respectively.  Fraser McKevitt explains: “It wasn’t all bad news for Asda and Tesco this period.  Asda’s online growth of 11% was notably strong while Tesco continues to find success with its cheapest own-label lines.  In fact, total sales of Tesco’s value tier were £29 million higher than this time last year.”

Already selling more items through deals than any other retailer, Morrisons increased its level of promotion this period as its overall sales fell by 2.7%.  A reduction in number of items bought per trip also contributed to this decline and its market share fell to 10.1% during the past 12 weeks.

Waitrose’s market share decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 4.9%.  Fraser McKevitt says: “Free-from products were a bright spot for Waitrose, and it sold 8% more items from these aisles than this time last year.   As diets change and public awareness of food intolerances continue to grow, free from products account for a greater proportion of sales at Waitrose than at any other retailer.” 

Iceland’s market share held steady at 2.1%, with sales down by 0.4% during the past 12 weeks.

An update on inflation

Grocery inflation now stands at 0.9%† for the 12-week period ending 11 August 2019. Prices have been rising since the 12 weeks to 1 January 2017, following a period of grocery price deflation which ran for 30 consecutive periods from September 2014 to December 2016. Prices are rising fastest in markets such as crisps, canned fish and frozen fish, while falling in canned cola, instant coffee and chilled fruit juices.

Midsommar manicure?
Painting your nails isn’t an exclusively summertime activity, but it does seem that Instagram feeds are suddenly full of vibrant and extravagant nails when the sun comes out. However, our data shows nail polish is actually more likely to be bought in winter, and painting your own nails doesn’t vary by season at all, and has declined generally over the past 3 years.

While DIY manicures are a year-round activity, the nail salon does get busier in the winter. More than 2 million British women have manicures in those cold miserable months, as a winter pick me up or for a bit of pampering before the big Christmas party. 

Summer glow
Of course, along with the rising heat of summer inevitably comes rising body temperatures. Those consumers who have never used deodorant are unlikely to start in the summer months. This group is on the rise, and the proportion of the population using deoderant has decreased by 4% in the past 2 years. Contact formats (like roll on) are used more frequently as it gets warmer, particularly among men who use these six times per week in summer and 5.7 times in the winter months. 

Sunshine-kissed skin
The perceived wisdom is that our skincare needs change between seasons, with the winter likely to dry skin out and summer helping to clear up spots. But in fact, the only facial conditions which change dramatically by season are chapped lips and sensitive skin - with 374,000 fewer British women saying they experience the latter during the summer months. This does differ across the channel however, as French women are more likely to say they have acne in the summer (52,000 more women compared with during winter).

Get in touch to find out how we can help you explore which categories are seasonal and how this affects consumer behaviour.

Claire McClelland, consumer specialist at Kantar, said: “A new DVD, CD or game remains a fail-safe present for those dads who have everything.  Physical video did particularly well from the Father’s Day this year – children picking up a favourite boxset or film for their fathers totalled £8.5 million worth of sales.”

Online retailers performed well again this quarter, with Amazon accounting for 25% of all spend and growing share in each category.  Claire McClelland said: “Amazon and eBay are increasingly popular with shoppers wanting to get the latest releases without leaving their homes – particularly if a traditional retailer has disappeared from their local high street.  Amazon will be expecting this trend to continue as a third of shoppers planning to shop during its Amazon Prime Day were intending to buy physical entertainment, compared with 42% who had their eye on electronics. 

“However, if last year is anything to go by, success for Amazon doesn’t inevitably mean bad news for the high street.  People that bought something from the online giant during the week of Amazon Prime Day in 2018 spent 40% more on the high street than the average shopper during those days – demonstrating the value of those shoppers to bricks-and-mortar retailers as well.”

Argos outplays rivals online

The mint game market was impacted fewer big-name releases this quarter and sales declined by 14% compared with this time last year. Claire McClelland explained: “Shiny, new releases can command higher prices and, with fewer new names entering the chart, a fall in average prices from £27.90 to £25.77 has been the key contributor to slowing sales.”

Online, Argos attracted more first-hand game shoppers this period while Amazon and specialist mint game stores have seen numbers fall.  Claire McClelland said: “Argos’ online business was a bright spot in the mint game market and uniquely manged to increase its shopper base while other online and bricks-and-mortar retailers lost ground.  Though not enough to offset overall losses year on year, Argos has stolen £300,000 of mint game spend from Amazon this quarter, £132,000 from GAME and £200,000 from Tesco.”

The Nintendo Switch continues to outperform its rivals and sales of its games increased by 6% this period, including 40,000 buyers of the most popular title, Super Smash Bro Ultimate.  Claire McClelland said: “Sales of consoles continue to suffer with 350,000 people buying a console of any kind this period compared with 407,000 last year.  While tightening budgets could account for some shopper losses, it’s likely many are holding out and delaying their purchases until the autumn when the new Switch model and next generation consoles from Sony and Microsoft are expected to land.”

Independents fight back

While Amazon continues to dominate the physical music market, accounting for 24% of sales, there are signs of a resurgence among independent stores which have increased sales by 14% this period.  In a continuing trend, vinyl is increasingly popular with nostalgic shoppers and performed particularly well within these independent outlets with sales rising 9% compared with 5% across the category. 

Claire McClelland said: “It’s been another tough quarter for the physical music market, with HMV store closures contributing to a 11% fall in sales.  However, the summer festival season is now in full swing and retailers will be hoping the music events translate into spend at the tills in the coming weeks.  In the past year, half of all festival or concert goers reported an instant impact on their listening habits while a third said the occasion re-ignited their love for an album or artist.  Crucially, 13% went out to pick up a physical CD of the artist.”

Showman shadow hangs over video market

Going up against the hugely successful release of the Greatest Showman this time last year, fewer new titles this period accounted for £22 million of the physical video market’s losses. The most popular release this period, Aquaman, attracted 360,000 buyers– compared to the Greatest Showman’s 800,000 buyers.

Overall sales fell 28% as the market also felt the effects of HMV store closures, but 4k DVDs showed resilience and achieved 1% growth .  Clare McClelland said: “There’s a lot of competition out there for DVD retailers, particularly in the form of online streaming services.  No longer just for young people, older generations are becoming increasingly tech-savvy and more confident at using these platforms and they are buying DVDs less often as a result.”

Our list of the top personal care launches of the past year does just that; assessing both the sales value of new products launched, and ranking them in terms of incrementality to the manufacturer and category.

This finds that No7 Laboratories, with sales of £26.5 million in 2018, is the biggest launch of last year in value terms. But in fact, it's the much smaller Nivea Miscellair (sales £2.8 million) which generated the most incremental sales for the master brand*. Listerine Nightly Reset (sales £2.8 million) was the launch which was most beneficial to its category as a whole.

Commenting on the ranking Fiona Keenan, Strategic Insight Director, Health and Beauty, said: "Brands are having to work harder than ever to find growth in health and beauty. With consumers' increased desire for experience and sustainability changing how we shop, innovation is key. A point of difference will give shoppers a reason to trade up for a premium product, and retailers a reason to make space on shelf." 

Read the full ranking and get in touch today for more information.

*No7 Laboratories was not included in the incrementality analysis because of small sample size.

The newsletter, penned by experts from our dairy team, gives our viewpoint on relevant sector news. In this edition, the team takes a look at the different retail channels in which consumers shop and their importance to the dairy sector:

• Paul Corrigan, Client Consultant, takes a look at the different shopper missions and how our mindset affects how we shop for dairy.
• The team takes a deep dive into our increasingly digital lives, uncovering whether online shopping is having a significant impact on the dairy market.
• The discounters are clearly a force to be reckoned with when it comes to retail growth. Will Guise, Category Analyst, looks at how Aldi and Lidl perform in the dairy sector.
• Mike Ndukwe, Category Analyst, uncovers how the convenience channel benefitted from the knockout summer of 2018, and what that meant for dairy categories.
• The opportunities for dairy in the out of home market are considered by Katie Roberts, Client Executive, as well as how and when shoppers pick up dairy to consume on the go.

This slowdown is evident across the majority of dairy sectors, with only eggs, butter and lards and compounds seeing an improvement in growth over the 12 weeks. Commenting on the findings, Oliver Bluring, Client Manager, said: “The biggest downturn is in the yoghurt sector which has gone from contributing £4.2m of growth to losing £2.45m. However, factoring in market size, cream has seen the biggest relative drop off. Growth is down by £2.4m, at what is usually a key time for the sector, as Wimbledon whips consumers into a frenzy for strawberries and cream.”

Almost all retailers contribute to the downturn, with only Tesco and Asda seeing a slight improvement in performance. Morrisons and Aldi struggle the most, with Morrisons’ growth declining by an additional £3.6m compared with the previous 12 weeks, and Aldi’s growth falling back by £3.35m. This dynamic is replicated in the cream sector, though here Asda suffer the most, with the biggest downturn in contribution to the growth of the sector - over £600,000.

In terms of shopper demographics, only young and middle families show a stronger performance than last period. The contribution of C2DE shoppers has also worsened by almost £12m. For cream the downturn is more consistent across demographics, though there’s a small improvement from older families.

Across both the dairy market and cream specifically, full price sales have driven the fall back in growth, resulting in a reduction of £15.2m in dairy overall and £2.5m in cream. For both markets, temporary price reduction (TPR) promotions have helped to stem declines in growth, and sales through Y for £X promotions mechanism have worsened.

Sliced cooked meats benefitted from the great summer last year as shoppers embraced al fresco meals and summer eating promotions encouraged shoppers to stock up. This year, the category saw fewer volume sales on promotion (-8%) and made its way into 12.2 million fewer baskets, though it lost just 200,000 shoppers year on year.  Ward continues:  “Fresh primary meat and poultry volumes are not impacted in the same way as the processed categories, delivering both value and volume growth. Beef and lamb have had a slow start to the year but are driving growth over the past 12 weeks. Chicken, long the star performer of the sector, has now tipped into value decline as shoppers pay lower prices at the tills.”

Beef sees growth from sectors like mince and marinades, which would be expected to perform well over the summer months, but there’s also a resurgence in beef roasting cuts. Ward continues: “Shoppers bought beef roasts on more than 200,000 additional trips, which suggests only a small proportion of shoppers are using the weather as an excuse for an off-season roast. Marinades performed strongly despite the poor weather, with volumes up 12% and attracting 315,000 more shoppers.” 

Beef steaks perform poorly, featuring in 3 million fewer trips having been picked up by 760,000 fewer shoppers. This comes as a result of rising base prices, and promotional sales falling. Beef mince, a versatile cut which suits consumers’ need for quick and easy meals, has been put into 3.3 million more baskets and attracted almost 490,000 more shoppers, despite already being bought by over half the population.

Chilled fish sees volume sales stable but value decreasing, despite featuring in 975,000 more trips. Fish has been performing well since inflation in the category started to slow, but prices are now dropping - down 24p per kilo overall – and this is contributing to the decline. Changes in shopper tastes are evident, with natural fish and shellfish lines tipping into value decline, along with added value products which continue their long-term decline. Prawns, haddock, mackerel and sea bass are driving the decline in the category, while cod remains in strong growth. In natural fish, volume growth is driven by salmon, but falling prices are driving overall value sales down, with salmon priced at 46p per kilo lower this year.

Ward continues: “As the 2018 peaks start to phase out of our year on year comparisons its expected we’ll see a rosier picture for MFP, with processed meat and poultry and fish pulling ahead once more. On the other hand, continued poor weather and the return of Brexit fears may drive shoppers towards more recessionary behaviour. Find out which wins the day in our next update in four weeks’ time.”

A step-change   

Food and drink choices made for health-related reasons are up 10% on four years ago. This translates to a whopping 6 billion additional servings that were chosen for health over that time. However, over the last year we have seen the health trend begin to plateau after four years of consecutive growth. As a result, we consumed almost 700m fewer “healthy” servings compared to the previous year (-1%). This mirrors the trend following the 2008 recession; as consumers try and cut costs in response to uncertain economic conditions, health becomes less of a priority. In times like these, there is still room for small, affordable luxuries and snacking is on the rise– an inherently less healthy moment - on 534 million more occasions compared to last year. 

The benefits balance 

The recent decline in healthy choices has been driven by ‘benefits-led health’ - rather than ‘managed health’ which is centred around calorie control and lighter, less filling options. This is in stark contrast to a couple of years ago, when benefits-led health was the key area of growth. Currently, we see managed health needs growing year on year. This reflects the pressure from government on manufacturers, in the form of taxes and voluntary targets, and consumers, in behaviour change campaigns like Change 4 Life. To what extent this is a consumer-driven trend remains to be seen, once consumer confidence returns the pendulum may swing towards benefit-led health yet again.

Consumer attitudes to health, and the impact these have on food and drink choices is constantly evolving, and will continue to set the agenda going forward. Retailers and manufacturers must stay on top of trends to ensure they stay relevant with consumers during the potentially turbulent months and years to come.  

Lucy Chapman, strategic insight director at Kantar, explains: “In a tough market climate, consumers are trading down to cheaper meals out.  Lunch spots tend to benefit when purse-strings tighten because they’re seen as more of an affordable luxury: lunch is about two and a half times less than the price of eating dinner out.

“However, the lunchtime market is incredibly diverse, and people are just as likely to buy their lunch in a fast food restaurant as they are at a supermarket or convenience store.  As such, anywhere that is trying to tap into this market needs to make sure it isn’t trying to be all things to all people and ending up with no distinct proposition of its own.”

Despite an increase in packed lunches being taken to work, the latest Kantar data reveals that lunches bought during the working day are still having a significant impact on the sector.  Almost a third of lunches bought on the go are brought back to the office and here the supermarkets are making great strides, selling 20 million more sandwiches than this time last year – in fact, sandwich sales account for a fifth of all out-of-home growth in the grocery retailers.  Lucy Chapman adds: “Supermarkets are in the perfect position of being able to sell out of home items as well as stocking packed lunch supplies and single items that can be added to carried out lunches.  An average lunch bought in a supermarket costs £2.97, which compares very favourably both to the out of home average of £5.09 and to the £1.82 it costs to make a packed lunch, meaning supermarkets can occupy a comfortable middle ground.”

The supermarkets are stealing lunchtime share from fast food restaurants, which despite being the next biggest players in the market have dropped four million visits year-on-year.  Lucy Chapman continues: “While fast food restaurants are losing shoppers at lunchtime there are strong signs of a fightback.  For example, the new wrap range from McDonald’s and the corresponding #LiveYourBestLunch marketing campaign are a clear attempt to move in on lunch as the company has done on breakfast.  But the line between different lunchtime outlets is blurring.  

“Sainsbury’s and Asda have announced partnerships with Deliveroo and Just Eat in the past month and the traditional out of home operators need to acknowledge the scale of the competition that the supermarkets bring, because consumers won’t necessarily distinguish between a supermarket, a café or high street bakery.”

The great outdoors

One in five lunches bought on the go are now enjoyed outside, reflected in the popularity of foods like pizza slices which can be eaten with minimal fuss such as standing up or by hand.  Lucy Chapman comments: “We’re facing our second heatwave in as many years and hopefully the retailers have learned from last year that it’s not just what you sell, but how convenient it is for customers.”

Fraser McKevitt, head of retail and consumer insight at Kantar, comments: “It was a challenging 12 weeks for all the major grocers, with growth slowing at every supermarket except Ocado.  The main factor behind the sales drop-off is shoppers heading out to stores less often.  Last year people shopped more frequently and closer to home as they topped up the cupboards while enjoying the sunshine and the men’s football World Cup.  This year households are making one fewer trip, which may not sound like much but is enough to tip the market into decline.  In addition, like-for-like grocery inflation fell marginally to 0.9%, which is good news for consumers but has made it harder for retailers to achieve value growth.”

The difficulties in emulating last year’s performance are evident when looking at traditional summer categories.  Most notably, consumers spent £75 million less on alcohol this year compared to last, with beer down 11% and cider down 13%.  Soft drinks sales fell by £56 million and ice cream by £55 million.  However, the cooler weather gave confectionery a chance to shine as it racked up an extra £68 million of customer spend.  Chocolate in particular grew by 15% as shoppers enjoyed a treat without having to worry about whether or not it would melt.  Despite the tough climate, branded goods also fared slightly better than the overall market, increasing sales by 0.2%. 

Lidl was the fastest growing bricks and mortar retailer this period, with sales up 7.0%.  Fraser McKevitt explains: “Lidl increased alcohol sales by 19%, bucking the market trend partially thanks to its deal offering 25% off when buying six bottles of wine, reflecting efforts the retailer is making to encourage shoppers to purchase by the trolley not the basket.  This focus is also evident through its newspaper vouchering deals, which offer a discount when people spend £20 or more.”

Aldi reached a new record share of the market, accounting for 8.1% of sales with spend up by 6.7% on last year.  Its branded lines grew particularly quickly, up 17%, although they still account for less than a tenth of Aldi’s overall sales.

Amid the market slowdown Co-op kept its run of growth going.  The retailer has now seen sales increase consistently since May last year.  Fraser McKevitt continues: “Growth of 0.2% may sound modest, but it is particularly impressive considering it comes on top of a record increase of 6.4% last year.  Co-op’s popular beer and pizza deal, which offered a full night in for only £5, sold well in 2018 and has now returned to the shelves – the retailer will be hoping this eventually translates to additional market share, which remained flat this period at 6.4%.”

Online specialist Ocado was the standout retailer this period in terms of growth, increasing sales by 11.9% and growing its shopper base by 6% over the past year.  Ocado’s business model shielded it from the effects of shoppers cutting back on unplanned and smaller trips, which has impacted the bricks and mortar retailers, and in fact Ocado’s customers are buying online more frequently than last year.

Fraser McKevitt continues: “Although sales at the big four grocers fell collectively by 2.1%, they continue to account for two-thirds of all supermarket sales and there are bright spots for all the retailers.  

“Asda’s performance faced a particularly hard comparison against last summer, when sales were growing at their fastest rate in more than six years.  However, the retailer has increased spend among more affluent ‘AB’ shoppers and achieved double-digit online sales growth, two significant boosts.  Meanwhile, Tesco now holds a 27.2% share of the market, down 0.4 percentage points on last year.  Despite this, it did find success through its value own-label ranges, including both its ‘Farm Brands’ and ‘Exclusively at Tesco’ lines, which increased by 11%.”

Sainsbury’s sales dropped by 2.3% this period, corresponding to a dip in its market share of 0.3 percentage points to 15.3%.  While frequency of customer visits did fall, Britain’s second largest retailer also attracted 254,000 additional shoppers through its doors.

At the same time, sales at Morrisons fell by 2.6% taking its market share down to 10.3%, a loss of 0.2 percentage points.  Fraser McKevitt points out: “Morrisons continues to sell more on promotion than any other retailer.  Currently 47% of spend through the tills is linked to a deal, and this proportion is still increasing in contrast to many of its rivals.  In addition, confectionery sales at Morrisons outperformed the already buoyant market.”

Iceland sales fell by 1.5%, with its market share staying flat at 2.1%.  Meanwhile, sales at Waitrose declined by 1.9% and the retailer’s market share did not move from 5.0%.

An update on inflation

Grocery inflation now stands at 0.9%† for the 12-week period ending 14 July 2019. Prices have been rising since the 12 weeks to 1 January 2017, following a period of grocery price deflation which ran for 30 consecutive periods from September 2014 to December 2016. Prices are rising fastest in markets such as crisps, canned fish and fruit squash, while falling in instant coffee, detergents and fresh bacon.

Building a close relationship between artist and fan away from the stage might be key.  Purchases of music directly from the artist’s website, rather than on the high street or another online store, are up by nearly 30% in the past year.  Superfans are driving this trend: 35-55-year-olds buying albums and singles for themselves account for 56% of sales.   This growth is even more remarkable when you consider the declining sales of physical music across the board – highlighting the commercial opportunities available for artists who invest in these relationships.

Giulia Barresi, entertainment analyst at Kantar, says: “Direct-to-consumer music sales are a high point in an increasingly challenging entertainment market and despite being relatively small within the sector, they shouldn’t be discounted. 

“Buying straight from the source allows people to feel a closer connection to their favourite artists – something that can be lost when using a streaming service, where the entire world’s back catalogue is at your fingertips.  They can also benefit from a feel-good factor too, in knowing they are directly contributing to an artist’s success.

“There’s a big opportunity for musicians here – direct-to-consumer sales have already grown 28% year on year, but still only account for 5% of sales.  However, even streaming services like Spotify are getting in on the act, organising intimate live performances from big names to generate that connection between artist and fan – unless acts properly invest in marketing their own product, they could find themselves losing out.”

Investing Time and Money

Young dads in the “starting a family” life stage are noticeably more involved in their personal care routines when compared to the total male population in the UK. They’re 13% more likely to be using a large number of different personal care categories on a weekly basis. This engagement is also evidenced by their willingness to invest time and money on their personal care routines, and they’re 68% more likely to spend a lot* on self-care. This rings particularly true in the haircare category, with young fathers 31% more likely to spend the time to get their hair right. Perhaps it’s not so difficult to choose a present for next Fathers’ Day after all!

Savvy Dads

As well as using more personal care products, young fathers are also increasingly savvy about the personal care category, being 41% more likely to buy the latest brands and products. Given their knowledge and desire to keep up appearances, they really value the specific benefits of a product, being almost 3 times more likely to choose a product for its benefits than the average male.

Winning with Word of Mouth

Given their inclination to buy the latest brands and products, it shouldn’t come as a surprise that this group is less brand loyal, with loyalty being 25% less important as a reason for purchase than it is for men overall. This has declined recently, and quality has overtaken brand loyalty as a purchase driver for this group over the last 4 years. Although this presents a risk for established brands, one strategy to win with this valuable demographic is through strong and impactful consumer reviews. With 41% of young fathers using consumer reviews for personal care recommendations, it is their primary source of information, ahead of brand websites and social media.

It's important not to underestimate the engagement and purchasing power of young dads. They spend £280 million annually on the total toiletries category, and their spend is growing faster than the wider market at 3.3% year on year. Usage data can help you understand them further and create a compelling approach to win their spend, and that of and other life stages.

*By their own definition – question asked whether they “spend lots on beauty products”

All data 12 m/e March 2019 

There’s mixed results across dairy sectors, and while almost all continue to see growth, cream, cheese, yoghurt and yoghurt drinks have all seen that growth fall back on last period. Butter and margarine have played a key role in the turnaround for the dairy market, with an additional £6.9m and £2.8m spend in these sectors during the period.

Of the retailers, Tesco sees the strongest improvement in contribution, with an additional £5.2 million. Morrisons and The Co-Op also seeing uplift exceeding £1 million. Butter was again the key to growth for Tesco, boosting performance by £4.3m. This strong performance from butter was seen across all retailers, with the exception of Sainsbury’s, which saw a marginal downturn.

Retired shoppers are the group with the biggest uplift in spend change (up £5.3 million) with less strong contributions from shoppers in the Empty Nesters, Pre-Families and Older families groups. Likewise more affluent ABC1 shoppers are spending strongly while C2DE see a downturn. Within the butter category, performance is strong across socioeconomic groups with only Pre-Families seeing a minor downturn.

In terms of promotions, Y for £X deals are contributing to the market’s improved performance while the opposite is true for TPR promotions. Full price sales see improved growth when it comes to the dairy market as a whole, and all price mechanisms contribute to the improved performance of butter.

The Best Workplaces for Women 2019 ranking acknowledges those organisations which are working hard to provide the best employee experience for women by creating flexible, family-friendly workplaces and introducing specific programmes to foster development among female employees.

The organisation achieved 12^th place in the ranking of “large” UK companies – those with between 251 and 1000 employees.

Kantar’s UK Worldpanel division has long had a 50/50 gender balance in its team and has introduced new policies and ways of working which demonstrate a long-term commitment to advancing the interests of the women in its workforce. These include having at least one woman on all interview and promotion panels, targets to increase representation of women at management level, family friendly policies, mentoring and flexible working.

Commenting on the award, Abi Macdonald, HR Director said: “We are delighted to have been recognised as being ahead of the curve with regards to including and supporting women. This award is a really great validation of the work we’ve been doing to attract, nurture and retain the women in our team.”

The award follows the team’s achievement of 15^th Place in the Best Workplaces 2019 (large category) list in May this year.

The inclement weather and fewer major national events this period has resulted in lower sales of fresh processed meat, sliced cooked meats and poultry, and chilled fish. Nathan Ward, Business Unit Director, MFP, explains: “Burgers have suffered in comparison to last year, when market conditions helped drive massive growth. Ranges in store are hitting the mark in terms of innovation and addressing trends, but there is no substitute for great weather and events that bring us together to celebrate! 550,000 fewer shoppers picked up burgers this year which, along with the impact of smaller baskets, is driving double digit decline. Burgers have seen an almost 20% reduction in sales on promotion; likely a mix of fewer promotions on offer in store and fewer shoppers entering the category. The steepest declines are among shoppers in the Midlands, South and Scotland, with older families, older dependents and empty nesters seeing the greatest losses – potentially the groups who liked to entertain over last summer."

Sausages are also in decline, with fewer shoppers making fewer trips, resulting in 2.4 million lost trips over the period. Bacon continues to decline, with lower prices pushing value sales into faster decline than volume sales and 4.7 million fewer trips compared to last year. Bacon continues to suffer as a result of its negative health connotations and changing consumer behaviour. Brands, particularly the healthier brands or those with strong provenance messaging, are doing well and private label “healthy” bacon is growing from a small base.

Fresh primary meat and poultry volumes are in growth compared to last year, but this is boosted by the timing of Easter in year on year comparisons. This results in strong growth in lamb and turkey, with a more realistic performance from the other proteins. Ward continues: “Chicken has seen static value growth, and limited volume growth, for the first time this year. However, that still equates to 2.3 million more trips, with prices at 4p less per kilo. Some 20.5 million shoppers bought chicken over this period - equal to 74% of the population. Roasts continue to suffer, with volumes down almost 5%, but breasts and legs continue to grow in both value and volume, buoyed by strong promotional support."

Beef has seen a return to growth after a few difficult periods, with volumes up as more shoppers (up 130,000) are making more trips (up 955,000). Decline in roasting beef is minimal this period, helping to bolster volumes, with the Easter phasing helping. Beef mince sees volume sales up 4.5%, driven by strong promotional support. Mince has seen TPR volumes up 42% which has helped to drive some positive momentum for the category.

Ward continues: “Chilled fish has seen growth flatten out in the last period, with the poorer weather impacting the category a little harder than others. Added value products have seen a continuation of the recent decline, with 1.4 million fewer trips this year. Shellfish growth has also fallen back, with volumes down and 270,000 fewer shoppers, despite promotional volumes increasing. The growth of natural fish is balancing out the decline of those categories, with 2.4 million more trips, with salmon, basa, tuna and haddock all driving category growth.”

With a mini heatwave over the last week and England moving towards the finals of the Cricket World Cup and the Women’s World Cup, will we see a boost for the market, or will rain stop play yet again? Find out in our next update.

Fraser McKevitt, head of retail and consumer insight at Kantar, comments: “The modest level of current growth is thanks in no small part to the wet start to the summer, with last year’s heatwave and the run up to the men’s FIFA World Cup making 2018 a difficult year to top. These challenges are reflected in typical summer categories: in the past four weeks sales of ice cream were £15 million lower than this time last year, while beer is down £17 million and burgers £6 million.

“However, even unseasonable clouds have a silver lining. Shoppers sought refuge from the cooler weather and spent more on traditional comfort foods, with fresh and tinned soup sales up by 8% and 16% respectively.”

Aldi attracted an additional 883,000 shoppers through its doors this 12 week period, with sales up 9.3%.  This helped the retailer to grow its market share to 7.9%, up by 0.5 percentage points on one year ago. Fraser McKevitt continues: “Aldi’s announcement that it is rolling out more small, ‘Local’ format stores in London looks like an attempt to increase its share in the capital, where it currently takes home just one out of every £30 of supermarket spend.  Grocery sales growth in London currently stands at 4% year on year, nearly three times the national rate, showing why all retailers see the capital as a major area of potential.”

Rival discounter Lidl, having recently announced plans for a flagship store on Tottenham Court Road in central London, also has eyes on the capital’s convenience market. However, Lidl’s current ‘Big on the Big Shop’ advertising campaign is focused on increasing the number of large shopping trips it attracts. Nearly two-thirds of its current growth is from shoppers spending more than £25 in one go, and Lidl clearly sees value in encouraging a weekly shop. Overall the retailer enjoyed another strong period, with sales up by 7.5%, lifting its market share to 5.7%.  

Growing by 3.0%, Co-op also increased its market share, now commanding 6.2% of British grocery sales. Fraser McKevitt explains: “Co-op is continuing to enjoy success in London and the South, where new store openings have helped make the region its largest area of growth. The convenience retailer already boasts the highest shopper frequency in the market as customers regularly pop in for smaller baskets and this has increased even further in the latest period: the average shopper stopped by 22 times over the course of 12 weeks.”   

Online specialist Ocado was the UK’s fastest growing supermarket, with sales growth of 11.3% comfortably ahead of the overall e-commerce market at 6%. However, only 3% of British shoppers currently buy from the retailer, something it will be looking to build on when it begins to stock M&S products next year. The remaining retailer to enjoy growth this period was Iceland, with sales up by 0.6%, although its market share slipped by 0.1 percentage points to 2.1%.

Tesco sales were flat year-on-year despite an increase in volumes sold. This was caused by the average price paid per pack falling as sales of its value own label lines like Eastman’s and Redmere Farms increased by 11%, and its ‘100 Years of Great Value’ campaign continued to offer lower prices. Tesco remained the country’s largest retailer, although its market share fell by 0.4 percentage points to 27.3%.

Sainsbury’s saw its sales fall by 0.6% in the latest 12 weeks, halving the rate of decline it registered last month. This is because of an increase in the number of affluent consumers visiting the retailer, with ‘AB’ shoppers increasing spend by 2% this period. Fraser McKevitt elaborates: “The rise in wealthier shoppers bodes well for Sainsbury’s and its plans to shake up its fresh offer, which will place more emphasis on counters, bakeries and food to go. The retailer will be hoping this provides another reason for shoppers to visit.”  

Meanwhile, Asda’s sales fell by 0.1% though it will be buoyed by the performance of its online arm, which enjoyed double-digit growth of 10%. Asda’s share of the overall market fell by 0.2 percentage points to 14.9%, while Morrisons’ sales decreased by 0.5%, lowering its share to 10.4% of grocery sales.

Waitrose’s share this period slipped back by 0.1 percentage points to 5.0%, with sales remaining flat compared to a year ago.  Fraser McKevitt continues: “Waitrose received good publicity this month for its trial of packaging-free goods in one of its Oxford stores, where shoppers were encouraged to bring their own containers. Six per cent of the retailer’s sales are already sold loose, a greater proportion than any of its rivals, showing an appetite for more sustainable packaging among its customers.”  

Ends

An update on inflation

Grocery inflation now stands at 1.0%† for the 12-week period ending 16 June 2019. Prices have been rising since the 12 weeks to 1 January 2017, following a period of grocery price deflation which ran for 30 consecutive periods from September 2014 to December 2016. Prices are rising fastest in markets such as crisps, bottled cola and dog food, while falling in instant coffee, fresh bacon and detergents.

Although watching every single movie in the Marvel franchise was not a pre-requisite to enjoying Endgame, there are many loyal fans. Our analysis indicates that over half of Endgame’s cinema goers in the first 10 days of release had either seen Avengers: Infinity War in the cinema last year or when it was available on home entertainment. This is a significant overlap and indicates the level of investment many Marvel fans have put into the franchise.

The best part for Disney is that not only do these dedicated fans love the cinema, they want to keep engaging with the content. They are likely to buy it on 4K to re-create the cinematic experience in their own home and then display it on their shelf in pride of place

In the age of disruption one business constant is the need for growth and a desire to understand the best ways of achieving it. One trusted tool to facilitate this is a segmentation, used principally to find the right consumers and occasions to stimulate growth. But why is it so important to segment in the right way, and how should it be used effectively in your business to maximise potential opportunities?  

From the data we can see that spend on this category continues to grow year on year.  In the five years to 2018 spend had increased by £1.41 per shopper. It’s also a highly branded category, accounting for 83% sales compared to 72% across healthcare as a whole, and this is continuing to grow.

Looking more closely at the sub-categories of digestive health, anti-haemorrhoids have seen an additional 391 thousand shoppers buy this year, and anti-diarrhoeals have seen 403 thousand more.  This has driven the 9.4% and 17.2% growth experienced by each. All of these are particularly strong with the over 45s market.  

IBS is actually the fastest growing subcategory at +20.4%, this is coming through price and frequency which means that those already purchasing are happy to buy more and spend a higher amount.  However, there aren’t that many new shoppers joining which might suggest that people might be managing symptoms rather than treating them, perhaps with probiotic drinks and fashionable products like kefir and kombucha.

As to where people buy their digestive health products, bargain stores contribute the most to growth in the market having increased by 19%* and have overtaken Asda to become the fourth biggest retailer for the category (behind Tesco, Boots, Sainsbury’s). Indigestion and anti-diarrhoeals are the key drivers of Asda’s performance this year, although most products in the category are growing. Whilst hard discounters are experiencing strong growth at 46%, digestive health remains small for them as they only really have a presence in indigestion and anti-diarrhoeals.

Whether due to fad or because of the changing needs of an ageing population, gut health does seem to be an area that is poised for further growth in the future.

Source: *Kantar 52 w/e 21^st April 2019

The Meat, Fish and Poultry market relies on events to drive volume, so these factors (coupled with a poor Easter) have had a big effect on the latest figures. Nathan Ward, Business Unit Director, MFP, explains: “Fresh Meat and Poultry volumes are static on last year, which is a positive considering the strength of 2018. However, there is cause for concern in the performance of beef which has been a big driver of the negative volume performance. Beef has seen 1.8m fewer trips year on year, with 220,000 less shoppers overall. The trips the remaining shoppers have made are smaller with basket sizes down 1% on last year, despite an increase of 10% in promoted volumes. Roasting joints are the key driver of volume loss, with 1.5m kg less bought compared to last year. Steak is also down 6%, contributing 715,000 kg fewer to the category. In volume terms, mince (+1.9%) and marinades (+11%) continue to perform well and have helped hold back the overall decline of beef.”

Ward continues: “Poultry volumes continue to rise, with both Chicken (+0.6%) and Turkey (+12%) growing in volume. Sales of chicken have fallen back slightly with average prices down -0.9%, as the mix of products tends towards cheaper cuts and promotional volumes increase (+4%). Roasting cuts are driving the decline in value terms and strip 11.9m kg out of the category, as there are over 1.9m fewer trips for these products over the period. Breast and leg growth is balancing this decline, with more trips driving both of these cuts. Breast has seen 3.1m more trips fuelled by temporary price reductions (TPRs) and everyday prices. Legs have seen 735,000 more trips and baskets growing by 1.8% which drives up volume. Legs have seen strong promotional support with promoted volumes up 26% as more TPRs help drive the uplift for the cut.”.

Ward, continues: “Chilled fish has managed to continue its long-term return to growth after the declines of last year. We’ve continue to see the trend of more trips driving the growth with 2.1m more trips in the last 12 weeks. Shopper growth remains important with 151,000 more shoppers entering the category. Natural continues to see a strong resurgence with volume up 7.4%, a slight slowdown on last month’s figures, but still seeing 3.3m more trips. Salmon remains the key species driving performance, but basa and sole also contribute growth for the category. Added value continues to struggle with fewer trips and shoppers, as the more affluent shoppers spend less. Salmon is driving the added value decline as shoppers buy more heavily into the natural products.”.

 As we discussed last month, great weather and compelling events help to drive the Meat, Fish and Poultry market and we have two European football finals with British interest, the Cricket World Cup and the FIFA Women’s World Cup to look forward to in the next update. Will the weather and these events drive growth, or will we see this decline continue – look out for our next release to find out more.

Over the last 12 weeks, half of the dairy sectors have experienced a reduction in their contribution to growth, the largest being milk which is down this period by £5.5 million. Fresh cream also stands recording a £0.6 million reduction on their growth contribution. Lards and Compounds has a strong performance on the back of slight growth last period, recording a £0.2 million contribution improvement.

The Where, the Who and the How

In terms of where people are buying dairy, this period’s slowdown is driven by Tesco (-£4.8m), Morrisons (-£2.7 million), Waitrose (-£2.2 million), Sainsbury’s (-£0.7 million) and Icelnd (-£0.4m). All the remaining retailers record a positive uplift in their contribution, with Aldi (+£1.3m) and Lidl (+£1.1 million) leading the way.

Poor performance from the pre- family demographic group continues into this period as year on year decline continues, recording £3.9 million contribution decline this period (up from £5.4 million last period). Those shoppers defined in the groups empty nesters (-£4.7 million) and retired (-£3.5 million) also reduced their spend. A large proportion of these shoppers fall within Class C1, with -£22.6 million change in contribution.

We see temporary price reduction (TPR) sales continue to grow versus 2018, compared to the last period this year this has increased by £27 million. However, this is outweighed by no promotions and Y for £X deals in particular which drive the slowdown of dairy as contribution to growth falls £21m and £12m, respectively.

Eggs standout

Eggs have bounced back from a period of continued slow down, up by £1.1 million this period. Growth was mainly due to Sainsbury's (+£0.8 million) and Tesco (+£0.5 million) drive growth despite their poor performance in dairy as whole. Growth is driven by no promotion sales (+£1.3 million) despite decline within Y for £X sales (-£0.3 million). When looking at who is driving the growth, it’s largely lower-income families with young families contributing +£0.7 million and Middle Families +£0.9 million.

Chris Hayward, consumer specialist at Kantar, comments: “This time last year we experienced the hottest May since records began and enjoyed major events like the royal wedding and FA Cup final – so we would expect this period to be challenging for all grocers when comparing year-on-year performance. Sales of beer and lager, ice cream and sun care fell by 7%, 12% and 16% respectively during the past four weeks as cooler weather impacted discretionary spending.

“Growth of 1.3% may appear modest when compared with last year’s 2.7%, however, the sector continues to demonstrate resilience and volume sales remain unchanged from last year. We have two European football finals with British interest, the Cricket World Cup and the FIFA Women’s World Cup to look forward to in the coming weeks. Retailers will be aiming to capitalise on these events and attract more shoppers throughout summer.”

Aldi and Lidl are worth a collective £344 million more than this time last year and reached a combined record market share of 13.8% this period. Chris Hayward explains: “The discounters continue to attract customers with nearly one million more households visiting Aldi compared with last year and an additional 630,000 shopping at Lidl.  Around 75% of growth at both supermarkets is coming from the ambient and chilled aisles as people opt for value in a greater proportion of their basket”.

Tesco recorded market share of 27.3% and sales were supported by the performance of its own label ranges. Chris Hayward explains: “While Tesco’s overall sales were flat, its performance was the strongest out of the big four during the past 12 weeks. Exclusively at Tesco products continue to be popular and went home in a quarter of customers’ baskets while discounts linked to the retailer’s ‘100 years of value’ campaign delivered a further boost. Looking ahead, the supermarket will be hoping the decision to make lines from its Jack’s discount arm available in store throughout May will pique customers’ interest and generate incremental sales.”

Waitrose experienced marginal growth of 0.1% during this period and its new Good Health range is one of the fastest growing own label lines across the major retailers, with sales totalling £13.4 million. The supermarket’s large proportion of AB customers is driving this growth as they increasingly look to make healthier choices.

Aside from Aldi and Lidl, Co-op delivered the strongest bricks-and-mortar sales growth of 3.7%. Chris Hayward comments: “Shoppers are clearly enjoying their experience in store at Co-op and have increased their number of trips by 5% in the past 12 weeks. New promotions like its frozen meal deal have also proved popular at the convenience store and sales of frozen pizza and frozen chips are up 27% and 24% respectively during the past 12 weeks.”

Sainsbury’s market share has fallen 0.5 percentage points to 15.2% as it nears its 150^th birthday.  hris Hayward explains: “Sainsbury’s is approaching its own anniversary a bit differently from rival Tesco – as well as reflecting on the past 150 years and including the Queen in celebrations, it is also looking forward and championing smaller brands with its Future Brands initiative.  ainsbury’s will be hoping that this strategy, combined with an increased level of promotions in recent months, will help win shoppers back.”

With the CMA ruling against the proposed merger now behind them, Asda and Sainsbury’s are neck and neck in the number two position this period as overall sales at Asda fell 0.2% despite online growth of 10.7%.  Meanwhile, Morrisons remains Britain’s fourth largest supermarket with market share of 10.4% down from 10.5% this time last year.

Ocado increased its market share to 1.3% as Iceland holds steady at 2.1%, making good use of Y for £X deals.  Chris Hayward continues: “Sales through promotion at Iceland are marginally higher than this time last year, accounting for 32% of overall grocery spend.  However, the retailer has created more innovative meal deals, often offering a free component rather than a cash or volume discount to entice shoppers and increase overall volume spend.”

Ends

An update on inflation

Grocery inflation now stands at 1.2%† for the 12-week period ending 19 May 2019. Prices have been rising since the 12 weeks to 1 January 2017, following a period of grocery price deflation which ran for 30 consecutive periods from September 2014 to December 2016. Prices are rising fastest in markets such as cola, dog food and crisps, while falling in instant coffee, bacon and nuts.

Covering food, beverages, dairy, homecare and health & beauty these reports include the top 20 brands chosen by consumers in each sector as well as important sector trends. Looking at the five levers of growth we identify examples and give case studies where brands have tapped into these trends, or even gone and created new ones.

Brands in which ever category they operate have had to face a relentless focus on value, with the twin threats from own label and discounters making growth hard to find. Brands have also had to deal with changing expectations from consumers and regulators on our health and environmental impact.

Find out which brands large and small have managed to grow through understanding our changing world and giving consumers compelling reasons to choose their product off the shelves.

Download your copies today to find out how the UK's most chosen brands found growth.

The most chosen UK food brands	The most chosen UK beverage brands
The most chosen UK dairy brands	The most chosen UK homecare brands
The most chosen UK health and beauty brands

This slowdown was greater than that seen in total grocery (1.6% down from 1.8%) or fresh and chilled (0.6% down from 1.4%), although dairy remains ahead overall.

Commenting on the findings, Ollie Blurring said, Client Executive, Kantar Worldpanel said: “Volume growth for all markets also eased with dairy at 1.7%, from 3.3% compared to grocery at 1.1% from 1.5% while fresh and chilled was at 1.0% from 2.2%. Volume growth saw less of a fall back than spend across all three markets as they began to annualise on the high levels of inflation seen last year, something that was particularly prominent in the dairy market.

The majority of dairy categories saw reduced growth in the last 12 weeks, with only butter and cream enjoying a slight improvement. The standout decline came in milk, which although still growing by almost £25 million versus the same period last year saw a reduction in growth versus the previous 12 weeks of over £15 million. 

Ollie continues: In terms of retailers, despite still having a strong performance overall, the greatest drop in growth for dairy came through the discounters with Aldi’s growth down £8.7 million vs the 12 weeks to 2 December and Lidl’s down £3.1 million. The same is true in milk, with growth falling by £2.6 million and £1.6 million respectively while Ocado and Tesco also struggled and dipped into overall 12 week decline in this sector.

Due to the fall back in the discounters, who overtrade in private label  and tend to have a more Every Day Low pricing strategy, it is sales of non-promoted lines of dairy products that are seeing the biggest fall in growth versus last period, specifically down over £30 million. A large amount of milk is sold at full price and this is where the decline in growth.

The slowdown in dairy’s growth has been fairly widespread across demographics though the less affluent social class, have seen a greater slowdown of - £18million versus the -£7million seen by the affluent social groups; the only life stage to see improved growth is the pre-family group.”

Look out for our next update in four weeks’ time where we’ll see if milk enjoys its usual strong start to the year or if the impact of Veganuary has any effect on the dairy sector.

Giulia Barresi, consumer specialist at Kantar said: “After a slow first quarter as shoppers took stock after Christmas, developers and retailers must now reposition and look to promote something extra beyond the obvious benefits physical formats can offer.  Now more than ever the market needs to be creative and offer consumers something they can’t get from newer media – and this has started to show.” 

Golden oldies make a new splash in video game market

Remaking old favourites has been a popular trend in the video game market for some time and familiar names were once again top sellers over the past quarter.  Principally, Resident Evil 2, a direct remake of the 1998 zombie classic, was one of this quarter’s most successful titles.  The game built on an existing trend for remade classics which has seen titles featuring Crash Bandicoot, Spyro and Tetris all have success in the past few years.  Giulia Barresi comments: “The trip down memory lane is one reason behind the popularity of remade titles, however over two-thirds of Crash Bandicoot N.Sane Trilogy sales and 57% of Spyro Reignited Trilogy’s were by the under-35 category.  Compared with the average new release – where less than half of buyers are under 35 – this shows that revived titles are just as popular with young gamers now as they were in their heyday.” 

In good news for the high street, physical stores grew their share of the gaming market for the first time since 2016.  The ecommerce giants lost share to bricks and mortar retailers in the past 12 weeks, with online accounting for 44.1% of sales – down from 47.1% this time last year – compared with physical stores at 55.9%, up three percentage points on 12 months ago.

Among consoles, the newer and more practical Nintendo Switch, which can be played on the go or at home, has taken market share from behemoths PlayStation and Xbox this quarter.  Giulia Barresi explains: “While music and film are now enjoyed just as much on the move as they are at home, the full blown gaming experience hasn’t been as accessible out and about.  The Nintendo Switch is a major step in the right direction – and has taken sizeable market share from PlayStation and Xbox. 

“PlayStation and Xbox have also been impacted by ongoing rumours about new hardware on the horizon.  The two console giants need to keep shoppers engaged as they wait for the new generation of releases – one way to do this is through high-profile exclusive games.”

Box-set binges and cosy nights in hold the key for home video

TV programmes on Blu-ray enjoyed growth of 31% in the first quarter of this year.  Giulia Barresi continues: “Beyond the big screen blockbuster releases, the major video events this period were homegrown TV titles such as Doctor Who – proving there’s an appetite for high definition content across TV as well.  It’s no secret that viewers increasingly enjoy long sessions watching TV shows and the video market is set to benefit from the release of the new Game of Thrones Season 8 box set coming up later this year.”  

Musicals and biopics continue to dominate among feature-length titles on home video.  Following the success of The Greatest Showman and Mamma Mia 2 in 2018, Bohemian Rhapsody was the best-selling title in the first quarter of this year, taken home by 600,000 shoppers in the past 12 weeks.  However, overall the physical video market declined by 24%, with sales affected by HMV’s store closures in February.

Giulia Barresi comments: “Shoppers aged 35 and over are buying fewer home video releases to watch alone or with their partners.  Keeping this age demographic engaged is key for physical video, as their younger counterparts become increasingly digital-exclusive every year.  With couples increasingly looking to add another dimension to their date nights, retailers should be doing more to promote the evening’s entertainment in promotions and deals.  A meal, bottle of wine and rom-com for £20 is a full night in at a very reasonable price.”

Purists willing to spend more on their favourite artists

Artist websites and concert venue stalls are two of the few resilient physical music markets as fans increasingly subscribe to streaming services rather than traditional hard copies.  Giulia Barresi explains: “Artist websites and concert venues now account for 7.3% of the market, up from 4.7% this time last year.  As shoppers don’t need to buy an album to listen to it anymore, they are willing to splash out on the music they actually want to keep and the artists they want to support.  The power of social media allows artists with smaller and more dedicated followings to link their marketing directly to their personal sales arms.  For high street retailers, stocking additional merchandise to tie in to big releases may be a way to encourage shoppers to purchase them outright rather than listening to major hits through streaming services.” 

The video subscription market is currently dominated by Netflix and Amazon Prime, but with the year on year growth in people accessing subscription services nearing 20%, the appetite for high quality content at the click of a button remains strong. The question therefore isn’t whether consumers still have an appetite for content, but as services set themselves apart from each other with original content, how many services will consumers want to subscribe to?

In our recent research, over 80% of consumers wouldn’t want to subscribe to more than two video subscriptions at a single time. So what will this mean for providers in 2019 when consumers will have more choice but the same amount of time. 

Click here to download the info grahpic. 

The organisation achieved 15th place in the ranking of the UK’s Best Workplaces in the large company category.

Tim Kidd, Managing Director - Europe said: “I am so happy and proud that we have been recognised by Great Place to Work® as one of the UK’s Best Workplaces.  Inspiring people to feel proud of themselves for the work that they do, and for what we collectively achieve for our clients is important to our business.  This also represents a bit of a hat trick following our placement in the Irish and French rankings too.

I am especially pleased we have met the criteria for their Excellence in Wellbeing accreditation. The well-being of our people is something we take very seriously, and we are committed to creating the best environment for our people to thrive. We are at the end of the day a people business.  The more we support our people, the better we help our clients and the better our business performs.  We are strongest when we work together as a team, but we also try to celebrate individuals as well so that they understand how much we appreciate their efforts.

I think one of the things that makes our business stand out is just how many of our senior managers have worked their way through the business over a number of years, a good number starting on the graduate scheme. 

I have always felt that this is Great Place to Work (possibly why I’ve been here quite so long!).  Our people really are the best in the business and I just want to say a huge thank you to all of them for everything they do.”

We know that the MFP market relies on events like Easter to drive volume, so this will have a big effect on our growth for the rest of the year. Nathan Ward, Business Unit Director, MFP, explains: “Easter and Mother’s Day are vital to volumes in roasts and in our last update we were forecasting stronger performance for the roasting categories year-on-year. Unfortunately, this wasn’t the case with roasting value down -2.5% and volumes down -5.4% in the last week of Easter compared to the comparable week last year. This is a huge hit for the category with beef and lamb affected most. When we look on a 12-week basis, we can see that beef and lamb are suffering strong volume losses year on year. Lamb was present in 1.24 million fewer baskets and saw a loss of 622,000 shoppers, with leg and shoulder roasts contributing a similar level of decline. It isn’t all bad news though, with just over a third of shoppers still buying lamb over the period and spending on average £16.45 each. The decline of beef is a more worrying prospect as it is over three times bigger. Beef has been in 1.96 million fewer baskets this year, almost all of this (1.9 million) due to roasting alone. Older and less affluent shoppers drove the decline, with older dependents, empty nesters, and retired shoppers the key demographics losing trips. Pork has bucked the trend adding 630,000 trips and 158,000 shoppers, with pork shoulder performing strongly with volume up 33% compared to last year.

Ward continues: “Poultry has performed well over the period, with turkey seeing a strong Easter performance. Turkey added 690,000 trips compared to last year and has done well as a centrepiece for a large meal with crowns (+190%) and rolls (+15%) driving the volume growth for the protein. Chicken reigns supreme in the category, dominating volumes and remaining key to growth. As in previous updates, it isn’t the roasting element which is driving growth, with the everyday versatile cuts still the engines of volume growth with breast (+5.6%) and legs (+8.8%) the most popular cuts. This has all helped chicken to achieve 1.92 million more trips and add 315,000 more shoppers.

Ward, continues: “Chilled fish remains the star performer with value and volume growth ahead of grocery. We’ve seen 4 million more trips containing chilled fish, with 295,000 more shoppers entering the category. Natural continues to enjoy a strong resurgence with volume up 9%, as we see 3.7 million more baskets with salmon, cod and sea bass contributing the most to volume growth. Smoked and shellfish continue to grow, with prawns and salmon key contributors. Added value continues to struggle with 1 million fewer trips driven by the more affluent shoppers in the market.”

Easter didn’t have the effect we hoped on the category, but will the weather drive us indoors to eat big meals or will it encourage more al fresco dining and eating out? All will be revealed as we move from spring towards summer in our next update in four weeks’ time.

Fraser McKevitt, head of retail and consumer insight at Kantar, comments: “Shoppers indulged in £335 million worth of Easter eggs and seasonal chocolate during the 12 weeks and the average household took home 10 such treats during the longer build up from February to the holiday weekend.  The warm weather over the Easter break helped boost sales of ice cream by 8% and hay fever remedies by 27% during the past four weeks as families made the most of the sunshine.”

Growth of 8.6% pushed Lidl’s market share to a new high of 5.7%, up 0.3 percentage points compared with last year.  Fraser McKevitt explains: “Half of Lidl’s sales now come from the fresh and chilled aisles and its performance this period was fuelled by customers spending an extra £14 million on dairy items and £13 million on fruit, vegetables and salads.  Fellow discounter Aldi was again the fastest growing supermarket, a position it has held since July 2018.   Aided by its store-opening programme, Aldi attracted an additional 823,000 shoppers through its doors to grow sales by 11.6% and increase its market share by 0.6 percentage points to 7.9%.”

Co-op and Ocado were the only other retailers to gain market share on last year, moving to 6.1% and 1.3% respectively.  Fraser McKevitt comments: “Co-op has been able to capitalise on periods of warmer weather as people shop closer to home and, with a 4.5% increase during the past 12 weeks, it has now grown sales continuously for a full year.  Its ‘Irresistible’ range, especially crisps, snacks, biscuits and pizzas, proved particularly popular, up 11% on last year.  The convenience retailer continues to perform well when it comes to small shopping baskets, accounting for 17% of all trips where people spend less than £20.”  

As the dust settles following last week’s CMA decision, Tesco’s position as the UK’s largest supermarket remains secure.  Fraser McKevitt explains: “More than three quarters of British households visited Tesco in the past 12 weeks, over five million more than each of its two closest rivals.  Though sales were up 1.0%, growth was behind the market which meant a loss of share compared with last year to 27.3%.

“Meanwhile, Sainsbury’s and Asda are continuing to battle it out for second place.  Two thirds of the public were aware of the proposed merger: the majority of those who knew about the CMA ruling didn’t have an opinion as to whether it was a good or bad outcome, while only one third welcomed the decision.

“Sainsbury’s has reclaimed second position despite a sales decline of 1.2%.  The supermarket achieved double-digit growth online which coincides with the launch of its first mobile-only payment store in central London this week, further demonstrating its drive towards digital innovation.”

Asda increased sales by 0.3% to take market share of 15.2%.  Fraser McKevitt comments: “The average Asda shopping basket increased in value and shoppers visited more often.  Asda remains strong in its northern heartland with the north of England and Scotland accounting for more than 40% of sales.

“Despite movement at the top of the table, the phrase ‘big four’ continues to hold meaning and Morrisons’ 10.3% market share means it sits comfortably ahead of the fifth largest retailer, Aldi.   Alcohol sales were the biggest contributor to Morrisons’ 0.6% growth this period.”

Sales at Iceland and Waitrose rose by 1.4% and 0.7% respectively with Iceland holding market share of 2.1% and Waitrose falling back by 0.1 percentage points to 5.0%.

Ends

An update on inflation

Grocery inflation now stands at 1.4%† for the 12-week period ending 21 April 2019. Prices have been rising since the 12 weeks to 1 January 2017, following a period of grocery price deflation which ran for 30 consecutive periods from September 2014 to December 2016. Prices are rising fastest in markets such as cola, lamb and crisps, while falling in instant coffee, fresh sausages and nuts.

in the out of home market 

Quick service dining, coffee shops and cafés are reaping the benefits of changing consumer behaviour which has helped the total out of home market grow by 5% in the 12 weeks to 24 March 2019, according to the latest figures from Kantar.  Shoppers are leaning towards more experiential outlets and increasingly trading down from full service restaurants to faster, flexible options in the search for better value.  This has helped the fast food market grow by 10% over the past year to account for over a fifth of all sector sales.  

Simon Quirk, consumer specialist at Kantar, comments: “Experience-based dining is now a massive market – every meal needs to be good enough for Instagram at the very least.  Full service restaurants are inherently experiential, but even they will need to find new ways to stay ahead in this field.  Over the past year, people have increasingly looked to base meals around other recreational activities and with more money being channelled in this direction, full service restaurants have seen sales decline by 6%.”

In contrast, leisure venues and hotels have grown by 10% in the past 12 months while cafés and coffee shops have enjoyed growth of 8% by embracing their quick and convenient ethos and integrating themselves into consumers’ daily lives. Simon Quirk explains: “Over the past year, cafés and coffee shops have targeted high street locations and partnered with other businesses to deliver successful concessions.  Primark’s flagship new store in Birmingham is a good example.  With a huge store front, multiple cafés and exclusives from brands like Disney, people won’t just be visiting the outlet for its fast fashion but for an overall experience which feels more like a day out than a trip to the shops.  While restaurants will always dominate at special occasions, outlets which offer dining in conjunction with another experience are winning day to day.”

With economic and political uncertainty denting customer confidence, diners have shown themselves to be more reluctant to splash out on premium meals.  There were almost five million fewer trips to full service restaurants in the most recent 12 weeks compared with last year as consumers cut down on high price spending, despite vouchering and promotion on the rise. 

This does not mean people are parting with less of their money overall, only that this money is moving away from more expensive buys in formal settings to smaller, everyday purchases on the go.  Spend on little luxuries is on the rise, with out of home coffee sales up by 5%, croissants by 7%, and savoury pastries up by 9% in the past year.  Businesses that are tapping into these trends, adapting them to quick and flexible formats and offering affordable indulgence are finding success.

Join us for a Webinar on 26 April at 11am when Katherine Shade Product Director, Usage will give a presentation explaining in more detail how Demand Spaces are a tool for growth, with plenty of examples

Use this to register link. 

Food and drink products are there to fulfil a purpose. Which products you choose to fulfil that purpose depends on a complex combination of who you are and what’s important to you. Add in who you’re with, when and where you are, and the needs you have at the point contribute to the decision about what to consume or buy.  

Hywel Davies, grocery expert explains: “With the Easter weekend falling later in the year in 2019 we have seen shoppers take their time to buy Easter eggs with sales down by 45.7% in the 12 weeks to 24 March, this despite their presence in stores from New Year’s Day.

With the Easter weekend falling at the end of the school holidays, as opposed to at the beginning like last year, shoppers are taking their time to buy into the category. We have seen the biggest decline from retired shoppers and empty nesters, who were key to driving the market last year. This has led to 3.2 million fewer households buying into the category overall.

Davies continues: “Shoppers have also been far less willing to buy Easter eggs at full price this year, with 47% of the decline in spend coming through non-promoted sales. This is despite the fact that retailers are holding off on their promotions, with only Tesco and M&S seeing a greater proportion of spend via promoted sales this year versus last. With Tesco seeing a big move away from their multi-buy strategy of “Buy 2 get 2 Free” to a more basic price cut offering. This year 63.3% of Tesco’s egg sales have come through this method opposed to just 35.3% last year.

With this slow start to Easter, we can expect the market for eggs to accelerate significantly in the next period, with shoppers beginning to take advantage of more promotions and the increased length of time to shop around for the perfect treats and gifts.

The classic Easter lunch

Last year sales of lamb struggled with rising prices broadening the price gap for what was already the most expensive red meat.

Nathan Ward, our meat fish and poultry expert, explains: “The same trend can be seen this year, as fresh lamb leg roasting joints are also yet to hit its peak this year, and again suffers due to the later Easter weekend, as we saw sales down 36.5% in the latest 12 weeks, and more than 580,000 fewer shoppers buying into the category. A staggering 95.2% of spend went through full price, as retailers are clearly waiting to get closer to Easter weekend to implement their promotions.”

A later Easter should boost availability this year. In 2018 Easter was too early for lambing season last year, causing supply issues for several retailers.

Nishita Pattni Client Executive for dairy explains: "the majority of the dairy sectors are experiencing a reduction in their contribution to growth, mainly butter for which growth has slowed to  £4.6 million. Proportionately, eggs experienced a faster slow down, this period down by £1.5 million. Cheese and yoghurt drinks stand out for their relatively stronger performance. Their contribution this period improved by £3.3 million and £1.5 million respectively."

Pattni continues: "the dairy slowdown is evident across most retailers, except for the discounters which see a positive uplift in their contribution by £2.3 million (Lidl) and £1.9 million (Aldi). Co-op and Waitrose have had a particularly challenging March as, despite being in overall growth year on year, their growth has slowed down by £3.4 million and £2.1 million respectively. When focusing on butter, Co-op again suffers, down by £1.2 million as well as Tesco who, although relatively better at a total dairy level, have had a slowdown in butter growth by £2.3 million."

Consumers in the pre-family life stage have slightly reduced dairy purchasing this quarter as, as it's decline has worsened by £4.7 million. This trend is reversed for butter as the pre-family group actually see an uplift in their growth for the category, whilst older shoppers such as the retired, empty nesters and older dependents experience slowdowns of £1.2 million (retired), £1.3 million (empty nesters and older dependents).

Within dairy, non-promoted sales are growing versus 2018 and growth compared to the last period this year has also seen a small increase of £600,000. However, this is outweighed by temporary price reduction promotions which see a slowdown in their contributions of £3.7 million and £1.5 million in the latest 12 weeks. This is also seen within butter where temporary price reduction growth slows by £3.7 million.

The meat, fish and poultry market (MFP) relies on events to drive volume: treating Mum and Easter are great examples of driving a bigger in-home occasion.

Nathan Ward, Business Unit Director, MFP, explains: “Easter and Mother’s Day are vital to volumes in roasts and, with the timing of Easter this year, we are seeing some large declines in roast joints, especially lamb which remains a really important market at Easter. Chicken and pork remain strong performers despite the Easter phasing. Pork’s growth has been driven by bigger baskets and a strong performance from pork shoulders and marinades. Chicken continues to see a strong performance based on breasts (+3%) and legs (+7%). Leg promotions are up 25% year on year, but breast growth is based on good everyday value as average prices fall. The base of all growth for chicken is coming from it being present in more baskets, adding 955,000 trips on tops of last year”

Ward continues: “Chilled fish remains the star performer with value and volume growth ahead of grocery. We’ve seen 3.9 million more trips containing chilled fish, with 322,000 more shoppers entering the category. Just under two-thirds of households have entered the category in the last quarter and are on average spending £24.55 on the market. Surimi, cod, salmon, and prawns are the biggest areas of growth, with only added-value products seeing volumes decline. Natural, as the largest sector, is driving growth and has seen volumes increase 4.4%, with 3.2 million more trips. Over a third of households are buying natural fish, up 5% on last year. Older dependents, empty nesters and retired shoppers are the key demographics for growth. Smoked growth continues as 300,000 more shoppers are buying the market, with salmon accounting for a large proportion of that growth.”

Ward, adds: “Bacon continues to struggle to drive any growth with 419,000 fewer shoppers compared to last year. Lost shoppers aren’t the only issue for bacon, with the market also seeing 4.5 million fewer trips. Bacon is experiencing less volume on promotion, with promoted volumes down 11% as we see 29% less sales on price and price cut. All demographic groups are declining for bacon, with older households, particularly those with older dependents driving the decline. The other processed categories are all seeing volumes grow, but value down as prices fall in all the categories”.

Uncertainty is changing our shopping habits, but we are already seeing the effects of Easter hitting the grocery sector. We all hope that the late Easter stimulates sales over the next month and we see a turnaround in performance for red meat. What impact will Brexit have on our Easter, will we splash out and treat ourselves or will we pull back in the face of austerity? Find out all of this and more in our next update in four weeks’ time.

Fraser McKevitt, consumer head of retail and consumer insight at Kantar, comments: “Despite Easter being a full month away British shoppers have already splashed out £146 million on Easter eggs this year and 42% of households have bought hot cross buns.  Some have used the longer lead up to Easter to embark on a spring clean, with sales of carpet cleaners up by 18% and accessories such as cloths and sponges up by 9% compared with this time last year.”

Meanwhile, scrutiny over single-use plastics continues, as Fraser McKevitt explains: “Consumers are applying pressure on the retailers when it comes to packaging and making their feelings known in the fruit and vegetable aisles – 21% of fruit, vegetable and salad items were sold loose over the past 12 weeks, with sales growing twice as quickly as packaged produce.”

Aldi sales increased by 10.6%, helping it achieve a new record high market share of 8.0%.  Fraser McKevitt comments: “Thirteen million households visited Aldi at least once in the past 12 weeks – now more than those shopping at Morrisons.  London holds potential for Aldi – as both its fastest growing region and where its market share is currently lowest – going some way to explain the recently announced trial of the smaller Aldi Local format in the capital.”

Lidl was the second fastest growing supermarket, with sales increasing quicker than last month at 5.8% and market share growing by 0.3 percentage points to 5.6%.  Particularly strong growth was seen in bakery goods, frozen foods and biscuits.

Tesco grew by 0.5% to achieve market share of 27.4%, 0.2 percentage points lower than a year ago.  Fraser McKevitt comments: “The popularity of the ‘Exclusively at Tesco’ range continues to rise – its products went home in nearly a quarter of Tesco shopping baskets and sales reached £138 million in the past 12 weeks.  The number of sales completed through a deal at the retailer increased to 40.1%, which is notable at a time when the level of promotion across the grocery market has fallen to less than 31%, the lowest in a decade.”

As Easter approaches, Asda has built on two years of continuous growth and increased sales by 0.1% this period to become the second largest retailer in Great Britain, with a 15.4% market share.  Asda’s performance has been fuelled by attracting a greater number of affluent households and shoppers making more regular trips.

Sales at Sainsbury’s fell by 1.8% and market share dropped by 0.5 percentage points to 15.3%.  Fraser McKevitt comments: “Despite being overtaken by Asda in main store sales, Sainsbury’s remains the biggest seller of food and drink out of the two retailers and these figures do not include Argos.  Sainsbury’s premium ‘Taste the Difference’ line is still a bright spot, with sales rising 4.4% and the brand growing sales of alcohol, poultry and dairy products in particular.”

Growth accelerated at Co-op, taking its market share to 6.1%.  New store openings and a focus on own brand lines, which saw strong growth of 6.5% compared with last year, helped generate sales, particularly in London.

Meanwhile, Ocado’s market share reached a new high of 1.3%.  Fraser McKevitt comments: “As both Ocado and Co-op have announced new West London-based rapid delivery systems in the past month, it’s clear they are eyeing up the £46 billion market of less than £30 top-up shops – of which only a fraction are currently home delivered.  However, it remains to be seen if this can be successfully rolled out beyond these initial small areas.”

Despite attracting an additional 40,000 shoppers over the past year, sales at Morrison’s fell by 0.1% this period as visitors picked up fewer items on each trip to the store.

At 1.3%, Waitrose posted its strongest growth since August 2018, as running less promotional activity than last year has allowed full price sales to increase.  Iceland sales increased by 0.6%, with its share staying at 2.1% of the market.

Ends

An update on inflation

Grocery inflation now stands at 1.5%† for the 12-week period ending 24 March 2019. Prices have been rising since the 12 weeks to 1 January 2017, following a period of grocery price deflation which ran for 30 consecutive periods from September 2014 to December 2016. Prices are rising fastest in markets such as cola, crisps and chilled deserts, while falling in instant coffee, fresh sausages and nuts.

Commenting on the new brand strategy, Kantar CEO Eric Salama said:

“The change in our branding reflects the operational changes already happening across our company, and is driven by a desire to achieve simplicity, scale and impact for our clients. This one change will make Kantar easier for clients to understand and work with. Removing barriers to co-creation and purposeful collaboration across our organisation will make it easier for Kantar to build platforms and offers globally that address our clients’ most pressing needs.”

Today’s announcement follows recent Kantar-wide initiatives including:

• The launch of Kantar Marketplace, a new global on-demand research and insights store.
• Kantar’s new Brand Guidance Systems that intelligently integrates validated survey measures with social, search, sales, media, behavioural data to provide actionable insights when they’re needed to optimise brand or campaign performance.
• The integration of big data, artificial intelligence and analytical capabilities from across the company into one organisation that unlocks deeper insights to fuel business growth.

Mandy Pooler, CMO, Kantar, added:

“Together, Kantar understands more about how people think, feel, shop, share, vote and view than any other company. Simplifying our brand strategy is a subtle, but important signal of our evolution and our mission – inspiring the world’s most important organisations by providing the most complete understanding of the people they serve”.

St Patrick’s Day is a global celebration of Irish culture and is celebrated in more countries than any other national festival. Here we look at how the alcohol market performs and zone in on those Irish tipples including Irish Whiskey and Guinness.

A Lucky Day for Pubs

A big day for the On Trade as pubs and restaurants prepare for a busy crowd. Last year luck really was with the pubs as according to our Worldpanel Plus survey, 44% of those celebrating St. Patrick’s Day made their way out to a pub to celebrate. One quarter of those taking part in the festivities had a party lined up and one fifth chose to buy Irish food and drink to observe the occasion. Those who bought alcohol in the off trade last year contributed a whopping £222 million to the category that week.

Irish Whiskey

Whilst the Whiskey category overall has struggled to retain shoppers, Irish Whiskey has offset some of this with a strong year-on-year growth at 21% and now over 600,000 shoppers. Brands like Jameson’s have been making the most of St. Patrick’s Day by putting on promotions to get shoppers engaged with the celebrations as well as capturing those watching the final matches of the Six Nations rugby tournament.

Guinness

We saw last year that the week of St. Patrick’s drove growth for Guinness, with shoppers spending £1.5 million more that week than the previous week on the well-known Irish stout. The number of households buying Guinness also grew 83% versus the previous week as 22% of those celebrating chose to stock up on Irish food and drink.

To find out more about what happened over this year’s St. Patrick’s Day, get in touch with a member of our client service team.

This goes against the upward trajectory of total grocery as well as fresh and chilled who grew at 2.2% and 1.3%, up from 1.8% and 0.8%, respectively. Volume growth for dairy fell by a bigger margin, down to 0.7% from 1.5% with total grocery now growing ahead of dairy on this metric at 1.3%.

Despite this, the majority of dairy sectors remain in growth and a number saw an improvement in their contribution this period including yoghurt drinks and juices, butter, lards and compounds, margarine and cheese. The biggest drop off in actual growth came from milk, down £4.4 million, though proportionately a bigger decrease, £2.3 million, was seen by the egg sector.

Commenting on the findings, Ollie Bluring, Client Executive, Kantar said: "We also see differences across retailers with Tesco, Waitrose and Ocado experiencing improvement this period while the Co-Op in particular sees a drop off in their growth, of almost £6 million. In the egg category, there is more consistency with Waitrose the only retailer with a notable improvement; although Iceland, Ocado and Aldi see flat or minimal up lifts. Problems for this sector are driven by the big four whose sales growth has slowed by almost £2 million.

Bluring continues: "The effects of retailers pulling back on promotions appears to be coming through in the dairy market as although sales on the Y for £X mechanism have moved into growth for the first time in several periods, the growth of sales on price reductions have dropped significantly by over £16 million. Non-promoted sales continue to grow, for eggs the opposite is true however as promoted lines see improved performance, but full-priced growth drops off by over £4 million."

Although the decline of egg growth comes through almost all life stages, there is a split in terms of socio-economic groups, with the more affluent in growth and all egg decline coming through less affluent class. This is a trend mirrored by total dairy with the affluent group increasing by £6.8million while the less affluent group has moved into decline. All life stages see reduced performance with the exception of older families.

The latest grocery market share figures from Kantar show that uncertainty isn’t driving market growth or a period of austerity. What we do know is that the “most romantic day of the year” did help to drive growth for some retailers. The meat, fish and poultry (MFP) market continues to see volume grow and fairly flat value sales, with shoppers buying more of the cheaper proteins such as pork and chicken.

Nathan Ward, Business Unit Director, MFP, explains: “Pork and chicken are the leading proteins in the fresh primary world, growing volume ahead of value. Pork has seen the traditional cuts of chops and leg roasts decline, but the growth for steaks and shoulder roasting joints are driving the protein forward. The pork sector appears to be quite price sensitive with the main cuts cheaper, despite inflation in MFP overall. The sectors seeing rising prices are those suffering the most. Pork bucks the trend with a strong roast performance driven by shoulder, but chicken also sees growth with whole birds helping to grow sales. Chicken remains the overriding success story of the primary category, with both value and volume in growth. The engine of this performance is shoppers putting chicken into more baskets, with 2.1 million more trips including chicken in the last 12 weeks. As we’ve reported in previous months, breast and legs are the key drivers of growth, driven by stronger promotions which are up 12% and 17% respectively.

Ward, continues: “Beef and lamb continue to suffer despite the presence of Valentine’s Day, which has been historically a strong period for steaks. It hasn’t been as positive for the primary beef and lamb categories this year, with meal solutions performing more strongly over the period. The decline of beef and lamb have been driven by roasting joints and steaks, with the only strong growth in both proteins coming from mince. For beef, the decline has driven 2.1m fewer trips compared to last year, with steaks particularly impacting the trend. Promotions in beef steaks fell 23% and this has impacted the performance. The decline of the traditional and more premium cuts is stronger in the more traditional households, with mince driving growth for younger families. Whilst primary pork is in growth, carcass balance is something that pig meat producers will need to keep an eye on, with bacon seeing a strong decline in both volume and value terms, with 3.7m fewer trips compared to last year. Rashers are the key to that decline, with everyday sales falling despite prices in the category falling back.”

Ward continues: “The renaissance of chilled fish continues with solid value and volume growth ahead of grocery overall. Volumes are growing more than value, with added-value fish the only category seeing a volume decline. Natural is the biggest driver of the category and is key to the growth we see overall. As we’ve identified in the past, the performance of salmon is significant, accounting for 58% of all sales in natural and almost two-thirds of smoked sales. The growth of salmon is working with other key species in driving forward volumes in natural and turning around the inflation base losses of last year. Smoked is another key growth area and has seen 200,000 more shoppers driving growth. With a reported potential rise in salmon prices around the corner, we might see the growth here fall back slightly in upcoming months.

With a decision on Brexit around the corner, will there be a surfeit of products we previously exported, or will we suffer in the categories where we depend on imports? Price rises seem likely, but are we seeing this already? Find out in our next update in four weeks’ time.

Health and beauty

Beauty and wellness is a billion-pound business predominately dominated by women.  Data from our Usage Care services, shows women spend over double the amount on health and beauty over the course of a year then men do. This includes adding professional beauty treatments into their regular regimes with treatments such as nail care and hair removal, up 9% from the previous year.

Although beauty treatments are up, a growing trend across all age groups in women, is moving towards a more natural look. Cosmetics sales are down by 11% with 200,000 fewer women buying into the market this year versus 2017. Women who work from home are wearing make up on average five times less per week than women who don’t, also aiding to the decline.

Health conscious women

Women are becoming more health conscious, 74% of women said that they try to lead a healthy lifestyle. This translates into their purchasing decisions, for instance more women are buying into vitamins, minerals, and supplements ( +2.1% versus 2017).

A recent study from Kantar shows, despite British yummy mummies saying they have less time, they are the group who are more likely to be interested in their personal appearance and spend more on beauty products than women without children. This is the group who are more likely to choose natural products when they have children under the age of two.

Buying books

In general, women make more browsed and impulse purchases when shopping for physical entertainment, therefore female spend is more valuable to the industry as they are investing more incremental spend into the entertainment categories. When it comes to literature for example, women are 6% more likely to make an impulse purchase.

Women gamers

The stereotype of the teenage boy playing video games alone in his bedroom is history, along with the notion that female gamers are exclusively interested in casual smartphone games.  Although, 60% of female spend on games is directed towards gifting, women are buying more for themselves in gaming, 20.5% of spend is for their own use, up from 17.2% this time last year.

Fraser McKevitt, head of retail and consumer insight at Kantar, comments: “Despite one in ten shoppers saying they have started stockpiling groceries and a further 26% reporting that they are considering doing so*, this has not been borne out in sales just yet.  Overall grocery volumes rose by 1.2% in the 4 weeks to 24 February, no increase compared with recent months, and it’s worth noting that hard-to-stockpile fresh and chilled foods made up 39% of the value of the average British shopping basket.”

Aldi was the only retailer to report double-digit growth during the past 12 weeks, increasing sales by 10.0%. Fraser McKevitt explains how Aldi capitalised on the most romantic day of the year: “In the past there may have been bit of a stigma about treating your loved one from a discounter – that just isn’t the case anymore.  Planning for the perfect date night, 10% of the population bought chocolate, wine, steak, shellfish or a chilled dessert from Aldi during the week of Valentine’s Day, helping it increase market share by 0.6 percentage points to 7.6%.”

Co-op attracted an additional 244,000 shoppers through its doors to help boost sales by 3.6% and increase its share of the total market to 5.9%.  Visitors to the convenience retailer spent £13 million more on fruit, vegetables and salads and £10 million more on both dairy products and soft drinks compared with the same time last year.

Asda and Sainsbury’s verdict pending

Asda and Sainsbury’s now have a potential combined market share of 31.2% as they await the final CMA ruling on their proposed merger.  Fraser McKevitt comments: “Asda continued its run of uninterrupted growth since April 2017, increasing sales by 1.0%.  Own label lines at the supermarket continued to outperformed brands and an increase in the number of online shopping trips helped boost growth overall.

“Sainsbury’s sales fell by 1.0%, reducing its market share by 0.5 percentage points to 15.7%.  Despite this, its premium Taste the Difference range proved popular – sales rose 4% and the products found their way into a quarter of all Sainsbury’s shopping baskets.”

Tesco, the country’s largest grocer, achieved growth of 1.3%, helped by customers buying 2% more items on each visit.  Overall, Tesco’s market share fell by 0.2 percentage points to 27.7%.

While Morrisons’ market share dropped slightly to 10.5%, sales were up 0.8%.  Fraser McKevitt comments: “Morrisons sells 43% of its goods on promotion – a higher proportion than any other supermarket.  However, the gap is closing – the supermarket sold £45 million less through deals than the same period a year ago.”

Ocado and Waitrose share shoppers

As Ocado’s new partnership with Marks & Spencer** was announced, confirming they will jointly supply the retailer’s products from 2020, sales at the online specialist rose by 3.4%, holding market share at 1.2%.  

Waitrose reported growth of 1.0%, its strongest performance since August 2018.  Fraser McKevitt comments: “There is greater overlap between the Waitrose and Ocado customer bases than those of any other grocers – 41% of Ocado shoppers also visited Waitrose in the past 12 weeks.  It remains to be seen how many of these are more loyal to the Waitrose product range and how many value the Ocado delivery service specifically – with or without its original partner.”

Lidl’s sales increased by 5.4%, with an increased market share of 5.2%.  Meanwhile sales at Iceland rose by 1.7%, with the retailer holding market share at 2.2%.

London calling for Amazon

Following reports that Amazon has been looking into convenience store sites in London, shoppers could soon be seeing its cashless Amazon Go format in the UK for the first time. Fraser McKevitt comments: “If the online giant does make a move into British bricks and mortar, it certainly makes sense to look in the capital in the first instance.  The London convenience store market is worth £1.4 billion annually in take home groceries alone and the current rate of growth is 13%.  Amazon already has an established customer base in the region, with 10% of its current FMCG shoppers living within the M25 and a further 25% in the South of England.”

* Findings regarding consumers stockpiling due to Brexit are based on the responses of 7,008 adults (aged 18+) in Great Britain.  The survey was conducted through the Shoppix app between 1 and 4 February 2019 by Kantar, Worldpanel Plus.

** Marks & Spencer performance is not recorded in these grocery market share figures

Ends

An update on inflation

Grocery inflation now stands at +1.4%† for the 12 week period ending 24 February 2019. Prices have been rising since the 12 weeks to 1 January 2017, following a period of grocery price deflation which ran for 30 consecutive periods from September 2014 to December 2016. Prices are rising fastest in markets such as cola, crisps and vegetables, while falling in instant coffee, fresh sausages and fresh bacon.

Across the grocery retail sector, the imminent impact upon supply chains, on-shelf availability, pricing and shopper sentiment is still largely unknown, highly dependent on the shape Britain’s final exit from the EU will take.
 
With this in mind, Kantar Worldpanel and Kantar Consulting have joined forces to produce a comprehensive analysis of how Brexit might affect the UK grocery industry and shoppers. Using Kantar Consulting’s expert analysis combined with the behavioural insights of Kantar Worldpanel, our whitepaper explores the different measures retailers and suppliers are taking to prepare for Brexit.

Download your copy of the report here. 

For more details about the report, and to understand how Kantar Worldpanel can help you better understand the Brexit scenarios please get in touch.

You’d be forgiven for thinking that the family meal was long extinct. In our time-poor society, where applications come before interactions and iPhones have replaced eye contact, it would be easy to assume that catering to individuals rather than groups would always be way to go.

All you need is love 
To a degree, this is true. In the last two years alone, one and two- person occasions have grown by over a billion, representing nearly three quarters of all food and drink growth. These occasions now account for over 59% of all food or drink consumption moments.  By comparison, five or more people occasions make-up just 10%.

This isn’t because we’re becoming more reclusive in our consumption decisions.  During the same period, we recorded an additional 1.4 billion households in the UK of which 1.1 billion are one or two person households – meaning smaller occasions are inevitable.

Return of the snack
We should also bear in mind that in this period the snacking occasion has seen a bit of a resurgence. Snacking, a more individual occasion enjoyed by two people or less 72.6% of the time, fell consistently throughout 2016 and 2017 as consumers increasingly moved towards core meal times. However, through 2018 we saw this trend reverse: by the end of the year the number of snacking occasions reached a peak not seen since March 2016.  This was driven strongly by one- and two-member moments.

We are family
If we focus purely on meal times in a larger household though a different story begins to emerge. In households of five or more people, eating together accounts for 82% of occasions, up 1% on last year as families appear to be increasing their time together – a far cry from the isolated family image that may be being portrayed.

Consumers who describe their meal as ‘together time’ are driving profitability – it is growing by 3.4% across the last two years, and now worth £13.5 billion. Two years ago, this was only £12.4 billion. At £1.74 an occasion, this is seen as the area consumers will throw more money at than most others, with only ‘celebration’ and ‘special’ seeing higher average spend. Those brands that can get onto the family table can charge more for the pleasure.

In many ways, the clear growth at both ends of the spectrum only goes to highlight the importance for a manufacturer to make sure they are catering to both individuals and larger groups. Among both there are clear and different propositions. With habits diverging at a rapid pace, those who want to win will need to cater to the entire spectrum or risk being left behind.

With 82% of us trying to lead a healthy lifestyle and government intervention ramping up, it’s clear that the issue of health remains firmly on the agenda. The role of food and drink retailers, suppliers and manufacturers has never been more prominent. But what exactly is this role and how do we navigate through these new requirements and legislations? 

Healthier Futures will answer important questions surrounding health and the food and drink industry, including:  
 

• What can you expect now and in the future?   
• What are retailers doing to encourage ‘healthier’ shoppers and what do they expect from their suppliers?   
• How Public Health England is addressing the health challenge  
• How is one of the world’s leading food and beverage manufacturers helping consumers and shoppers to help themselves?   
• The key to success lies in changing consumer behaviour.  Has legislation ever achieved this?   
• How can you tap into consumer consciousness in a bid to alter engrained behaviour?   
• How can you set clear and common metrics to understand your nutritional contribution and the best levers for change?
• And more...

Argos and Game’s recent success has been shaped primarily by sales of new video game titles. Much of these have transferred from the supermarkets, which accounted for 49.7% of gaming sales compared with 61.5% this time last year.

Giulia Barresi, consumer specialist at Kantar Worldpanel said: “Consumers really value the trend-led up-to-the minute offer which specialists provide, and supermarkets need to find a way to replicate this feeling.  Entertainment aisles which don’t feel completely up to speed with the hottest new releases won’t attract footfall.  It’s important for grocers to show that they too are specialists who understand the sector – whether that’s by giving space to accompanying merchandise or stocking a wider range of games.”

Among new gaming releases, epic Western adventure Red Dead Redemption 2 was the major success story in the most recent period.  The long-awaited sequel accounted for 21% of sales online and in store and had a major impact on the overall value of the sector.  With most retailers opting against putting the title on promotion, shoppers were left with few options but to pay full price, boosting the average spend across the category.

Giulia Barresi continues: “Red Dead Redemption 2 was a smash hit release for Rockstar Games and has had a major impact on the video game market since its release.  More than half a million shoppers gave the game as a gift over Christmas, and the big price tag meant it made a substantial contribution to the market in the past three months.         

“The festive period is always a crucial time for video game sales, and this year saw big uplift in the number of women finding games in their stockings.  Almost 16% of all gaming gifts were given to women, up from 12.5% last year, with the most popular titles being Spyro Reignited Trilogy and Just Dance 2018.  This trend provided a further boost for the specialist game retailers and should provide a lesson for the rest of the high street that despite reducing the shelf space they dedicate to games, they need to think beyond the blockbusters to engage with different demographics.”

 Music fans looking for authentic experience

It was a tough quarter for physical music, with bricks and mortar retailers in particular strugglingto find favour.  HMV’s troubles were well reported in the media, however from a sales perspective the retailer found areas of growth and doubled its online share of the music market. 

Giulia Barresi comments: “HMV has another chance at redemption and there are cues it can take from the independent sector.  Smaller, independent stores now account for more than one of every £10 spent on physical music, a 12.5% increase on three years ago, with shoppers clearly looking for more personal experiences when browsing music.

“One in ten physical music items bought is now a vinyl record, as customers hone in on sound quality and overall experience as they shop.  Artists websites are also showing strong growth, and while their overall share of music is still small, it’s clear there’s a massive appetite for fans to support their favourite artists through physical sales.  HMV will hope that people behind its new owners Sunrise Records can use their indie roots to heighten the bespoke experience it offers in-store and keep attracting music fans to the high street.”

 Soundtracks to life

2018 was defined by the strong performance of film soundtracks.  The most recent three month period was no different, with blockbuster hits Bohemian Rhapsody and A Star is Born both releasing hugely successful accompanying albums this quarter. 

Giulia Barresi explains: “Hit Queen biopic Bohemian Rhapsody launched the band right back to the top of the charts this period and helped the rock genre account for 37% of all physical music sales – its highest share for five years.  The soundtrack was bought by 140,000 shoppers in the 12 weeks to 13 January, closely followed by Muse’s Simulation Theory which almost hit the 100,000 mark.”

Musicals were also the most popular home video purchases this period, with The Greatest Showman and Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again particularly popular at Christmas.  The hit Abba sequel was bought as a gift by almost half a million people, making it the most popular film present this Christmas.

Giulia Barresi says: “It’s important for retailers to pay attention to the occasions on which people watch films, as well as the genres they buy.  For example, shoppers often opt for releases they can watch at family time or on a date night.  Having a film to watch with family is increasingly popular in particular, and is now the motivation behind 14% of all spend on physical films.  In addition, shoppers looking for films to enjoy by themselves declined for the first time in three years.  This should be of great interest to retailers, who can tailor their messaging to target whichever occasion fits best with this year’s upcoming releases.”          

Nathan Ward, Business Unit Director, MFP, explains: “Christmas is still lurking in the figures, but despite the media profile of Veganuary, the impact on our market is relatively low. As mentioned in our last update, there is limited evidence of us becoming a nation of vegetarians and vegans, with only beef, lamb and turkey seeing volume declines in the latest period. Processed products have seen a slightly stronger decline, with bacon the largest driver of this volume loss as we see 4.2 million fewer trips containing bacon. When we focus on the last four weeks when Veganuary was running, we’ve seen flat volumes for primary meat and poultry, with fish still in strong growth, so any impact is minimal on the core categories. What we are seeing is the continued impact of uncertainty and retailer price wars driving down prices and causing shoppers to be more conscious of their spending”

Ward, continues: “Chilled fish continues to show a strong performance as volume outstrips value growth, attracting 332,000 more shoppers and 2.6 million more trips. All of the sectors are seeing volume growth except shellfish which is seeing static volumes. Salmon, cod and pollock are the key species driving volume growth, as natural drives salmon, breaded drives pollock and cod grows across all sectors except added value. Promotions are rising, up 4% in volume, but it is keener everyday pricing which is stimulating growth with non-promoted sales up 5%. Naturals remains the largest area and has seen 2m more trips compared to last year, with 461,000 more shoppers in the category.”

Ward, adds: “The decline of beef volumes has been driven by steaks which are down 9.7%, with 420,000 fewer shoppers and 2.1 million fewer trips this year. Hopefully the in-store activity for Valentine’s Day will help turn around this performance. Roasting volumes continue to fall, but this is part of a long-term decline for roasting joints overall. Lamb continues to see the core roasting joints decline (leg -4%, shoulder -3%) and lamb chops down 8%, with fewer shoppers the key driver of these sectors. Chicken continues to drive volume and pull away from red meat volumes, with 390,000 more shoppers and 2 million more trips. Legs and breasts continue to drive growth attracting 470,000 more shoppers to breasts and 280,000 more to legs.”

2019 is already full of surprises, with Veganuary not hitting as hard as the press would lead us to believe and the promise of an eastern freeze not materialising everywhere. We know that events drive performance and interest in our markets, I look forward to seeing the impact of Valentine’s Day on the next update in four week’s time. 

Three key roles

For simplicity let’s think of three roles that meal components can play.

1. Centre stage, an example of this would be roast beef, this sort of food will dictate what other products could play a role in the meal.
2. Supporting role, an example might be horseradish, the relevance of this product is directly reliant on the choice of host.
3. Co-dependent, this is where different foods are combined to create a meal but there is no one part that is more important than the others, an example might be a fried breakfast where any combination of items could be used.

Which role a product plays has fundamental implications for marketing: positioning, price point, forecasting and innovation. Knowing where your product falls – or the proportion which falls where – is key to knowing where and how to grow.

If you would like to know more about this, please read my full blog post here.

Grocery saw a slight improvement in volume which grew 1.4%, compared to 1.1% in the previous. Dairy’s volume growth was less at 1.5%, compared to 1.7%.

Almost all dairy categories saw a fall in growth compared to the last period, with the exception of cheese, which saw 12 week growth increase by £3 million, while cream and margarine saw marginal uplifts. Milk has continued to see a large reduction in growth, £5.7 million this period. 

Proportionally the biggest slowdown in growth was £1.6 million in the fromage frais category. The category has been in decline for a while due changes in children’s consumption of yoghurt and fromage frais, but this decline has worsened in the latest 12 weeks. The majority of fromage frais decline is from lines sold through temporary price reductions (TPR), although non-promoted sales have also fallen. Decline is consistent across demographics but particularly strong for families.

For total dairy, full price sales are the only area to see a fall back in growth as TPR sees a marginal up lift and decline through Y for £X sales continue to ease significantly.

We do see some differences across the major retailers in in the latest period, with Tesco, Waitrose and Ocado seeing decent up-lifts in growth while the rest drop off. Aldi and Lidl had a combined £8 million reduction in their 12 week growth. The exception is fromage frais however where Aldi see some up lift and Waitrose the biggest drop off.

In terms of shoppers, there is a contrast across social classes with the more affluent shoppers seeing a £7.3 million uplift in sales while for the lower socio-economic groups there was almost no growth, a fall of £12.8 million. Most life stages see a drop off in growth with pre-family the first life stage for some time to see year-on-year decline in their dairy spend.

In his presentation Chris explored the fact that the frozen sector is growing in terms of both frequency and price.  The market is now worth £6.3 billion and has grown +3.6% in the last year which is faster than ambient and chilled.

The biggest growth in the sector comes from frozen vegetarian products which are up 9.1% in the last year and, perhaps not surprisingly after a great summer, total ice cream which grew 13%.

In terms of channels, online sales for frozen food have increased by 4.7% which is driven by the growth in branded up 6%, overall online sales are evenly split between branded and own label.

If you’d like to find out more about Kantar Worldpanel’s expertise in this area, please contact us.

In an increasingly challenging market it is important that retailers stand out from the crowd. Throughout 2018, we saw the best performing retailers are those with a clear point of difference; be it value, a branded offer or being on point with fashion trends. Retailers themselves have noticed this, looking to capitalise upon the fact that a fifth of consumers are more likely to visit a store with some form of ‘social space’. It is however important that similar to the ‘athlesiure’, ‘coloured denim’ and ‘maxi dress’ trends retailers make sure not to ‘follow the crowd’ by either launching ranges or adding facilities in-store simply because competitors do. It is important to understand their customers’ needs and demands and then innovate based on these.

Consumers as King

Retailers will no longer be able to dictate to consumers. Years of constant year-long discounting, high stock levels and negative news stories mean consumers are fully aware the power is in their hands. To counter this retailers should stop putting their customers into ‘groups’, such as the ‘value shopper’ or the ‘high end shopper'. The reality is that consumers will shop where they can find the product that best fits their needs – paying higher prices for items that are bought for a specific purpose, be it a night out, exercise or changing seasons. Whilst pureplayers should not be underestimated, the power they have to disrupt the market is negligible. Two-thirds of all money lost from stores is lost from the market altogether, retailers need to think about long-term retention strategies to change more customers rather than short-term discounting stunts. 

Revised discounting

Discounting did a good job of driving spend during the last recession, the challenge being this discounting never stopped and is no longer driving footfall. Only a quarter of the population are excited by discount events and historical data tells us that growth is required from both full price and discounting for the market as a whole to grow – indeed only 20% of all retailers who grew in 2018 grew through discounting alone. We expect to see a revised and more controlled approach to discounting this year as retailers move to protect margins whilst focusing on customer retention.

A few questions for fashion players to ask themselves:

Are you selling consumers the products they want, or products you want them to buy?

Are you making it easy for your customers to move to competitors through poor service, lack of trust due to discounting or a difficult to navigate website?

Have you a strategy for ‘turning off’ or ‘fewer’ discounting this year – are you discounting for the sake of discounting or using this as a strategic rather than tactical tool?

Nathan Ward commented: “Brexit is affecting confidence and prices, but long-term trends are having as big, if not bigger effect on meat. We are seeing shoppers move from primary meats into other markets and are increasingly on the lookout for value, which is influencing the market too. Shoppers want quick and delicious meals, to win red meat must work within these parameters. Beef and lamb are still huge markets and are not seeing less trips, a decline in roasting occasions is a key issue in the market for both.

Fraser McKevitt, head of retail and consumer insight at Kantar Worldpanel, comments: “Looking back on 2018 as a whole, one of the most notable consumer trends is the shift to a more plant-based diet.  Today, 1% of all households include a vegan, 5% have a vegetarian and 10% have flexitarians in their ranks.  This move has contributed to consumers eating a total of 4.4 billion meat-free dinners in 2018, an increase of 150 million meals on the year before. 

“Following an indulgent Christmas period, health-conscious shoppers and Veganuary participants helped sales of fruit, vegetables and salad surge by £46 million compared with January last year.  Cucumbers, carrots and berries in particular proved to be shopper favourites, rocketing by 26%, 22% and 13% respectively.  Meanwhile, over two-thirds of customers bought an item labelled ‘free-from’* over the past month, with dairy alternatives like plant milks making up a quarter of total free-from sales.”    

Almost a third of consumers claim to be open to Dry January but this did not stop total alcohol sales from enjoying double-digit growth of 10% in the last 4 weeks.  Fraser McKevitt continues: “Alcohol performed well over the month, though this was helped by a strong New Year’s Eve, and when excluding sales on 31 December growth falls to 2.9%.  All in all, 53% of households bought alcohol in January and while non and low-alcohol beers jumped by 79%, the popular #Ginuary helped gin sales grow by 23%.”

Aldi and Lidl have continued their strong run of form: 18.3 million households shopped in at least one of the discounters over the past 12 weeks, spending an average of £204 – up £8 compared with this time last year.  With sales up 9.1%, Aldi was the fastest-growing supermarket, increasing its market share by 0.5 percentage points to 7.5%.  Meanwhile, Lidl’s market share rose by 0.3 percentage points as sales growth clocked in at 7.3%.     

Fraser McKevitt adds: “With the exception of the discounters, Co-op was the only retailer to gain market share over this 12-week period.  This now stands at 5.9% – up 0.1 percentage points on this time last year.  An additional 346,000 consumers visited its stores, helping to buoy sales of its top-tier Irresistible range by 9%.  The Co-op’s strongest growth was focused in the capital and, with more stores set to open this year in London and the south east, this trend is likely to continue.”

Tesco’s centenary commitment to ‘celebrate 100 years of great value’ has helped the grocer increase sales by 1.0% – its fastest rate of growth since September 2018.  Its Exclusively at Tesco fresh food lines performed particularly strongly, with total sales reaching £130 million.  Tesco’s market share now stands at 27.7% – down 0.2 percentage points on this time last year.       

Despite sales at Morrisons rising by 0.4%, market share fell to 10.6% – down 0.2 percentage points.  Fraser McKevitt continues: “Morrisons’ recent announcement that it will hire 500 new apprentices for its counters could prove a savvy move: 41% of its customers already shop at the retailer’s Market Street stalls.” 

Asda’s double-digit online performance contributed to growth of 0.7%, though the retailer’s market share declined 0.2 percentage points to 15.3%.  Meanwhile, Sainsbury’s saw sales fall by 0.3% while its market share dropped by 0.4 percentage points to 15.9%.  Waitrose returned to growth this period with sales up 0.2% – the retailer’s market share dropped by 0.1 percentage points to 5.1%. 

Iceland grew ahead of the market – up 2.3% – recording 11 successive periods of growth.  Nearly half of the supermarket’s growth was channelled through its core frozen lines, with ambient groceries and alcohol also performing well.  Ocado also held market share steady at 1.1% and saw sales rise by 1.0%. 

*free-from labelled items refers to all products that are dairy-free or gluten-free

Ends

An update on inflation

Grocery inflation now stands at +1.3%† for the 12 week period ending 27 January 2019. Prices have been rising since the 12 weeks to 1 January 2017, following a period of grocery price deflation which ran for 30 consecutive periods from September 2014 to December 2016. Prices are rising fastest in markets such as cola, toilet tissue and vitamins, while falling in instant coffee, fresh sausages and fresh bacon.

2.9 million people claim to have taken part, including a good number of affluent millennials. Those participating in the month-off typically drink out more than average and have a more lively time of it – one-fifth of occasions are described as “up-tempo”. They also tend to be heavier drinkers having four drinks per occasion compared to an average of three for the total market.

 A point of note for brand owners is that a half of those participating in Dry January would be prepared to consider low or no alcohol options and they tend to prefer a sweeter tipple, 12% favouring cider and 6% ready-mixed options.

Click the link of the left to check out the full infographic. 

This slowdown was greater than that seen in total grocery (1.6% down from 1.8%) or fresh and chilled (0.6% down from 1.4%), although dairy remains ahead overall.

Commenting on the findings, Ollie Blurring said, Client Executive, Kantar Worldpanel said: “Volume growth for all markets also eased with dairy at 1.7%, from 3.3% compared to grocery at 1.1% from 1.5% while fresh and chilled was at 1.0% from 2.2%. Volume growth saw less of a fall back than spend across all three markets as they began to annualise on the high levels of inflation seen last year, something that was particularly prominent in the dairy market.

The majority of dairy categories saw reduced growth in the last 12 weeks, with only butter and cream enjoying a slight improvement. The standout decline came in milk, which although still growing by almost £25 million versus the same period last year saw a reduction in growth versus the previous 12 weeks of over £15 million. 

Ollie continues: In terms of retailers, despite still having a strong performance overall, the greatest drop in growth for dairy came through the discounters with Aldi’s growth down £8.7 million vs the 12 weeks to 2 December and Lidl’s down £3.1 million. The same is true in milk, with growth falling by £2.6 million and £1.6 million respectively while Ocado and Tesco also struggled and dipped into overall 12 week decline in this sector.

Due to the fall back in the discounters, who overtrade in PL and tend to have a more Every Day Low pricing strategy, it is sales of non-promoted lines of dairy products that are seeing the biggest fall in growth versus last period, specifically down over £30 million. A large amount of milk is sold at full price and this is where the decline in growth.

The slowdown in dairy’s growth has been fairly widespread across demographics though the less affluent social class, have seen a greater slowdown of - £18million versus the -£7million seen by the more affluent, the only life stage to see improved growth is the pre-family group."

Look out for our next update in four weeks’ time where we’ll see if milk enjoys its usual strong start to the year or if the impact of Veganuary has any effect on the dairy sector.

The latest grocery market share figures from Kantar Worldpanel already show a record year for grocery, with Saturday 22nd December the strongest day for grocery sales. Fresh meat. fish and poultry (MFP) also grew sales over a 12-week period but saw a softer performance over the last four weeks of the year.

Nathan Ward, Business Unit Director, MFP, explains: “Christmas is always a strong period for the category, with sales above the average quarter.  Some markets (like turkey) see their largest sales of the year in the two weeks running-up to the festivities. This year the winners are pork, chicken and chilled fish, which all saw value and volume growth. Turkey remains static in volume over the 12 weeks but has seen value drop slightly. The press has reported on the demise of the Christmas dinner, but the evidence is much less conclusive, with more shoppers buying turkey over the four weeks compared to last year. Turkey remains the key part of Christmas dinner and still dominates sales in the last week before Christmas.”

Ward, continues: “The pressure on meat and poultry is being over exaggerated by press claims that we are all turning towards plant-based diets. There is limited evidence of us becoming a nation of vegetarians and vegans, with more shoppers buying into primary meant and poultry compared to last year. Beef continues the decline we saw last month, driven by the cuts of joints, stewing and steaks. We’ve seen 3 million fewer trips for beef, as shoppers move volume into other categories. Beef promotions are driving less volume, with TPRs seeing 10% less sales: steak and stewing beef are the key categories driving this.  Lamb’s strong value performance continues with the growth of joints over Christmas offset by the falling volume of chops. Chicken and pork are the strong performers within the big four proteins growing volume over 4%, supported by falling base prices and stronger pork promotions.”

Ward continues: “Chilled fish has had a strong performance over Christmas adding 1.8 million more trips: natural and smoked fish drove sales. Smoked salmon was a big winner this Christmas, driving the smoked category with 970k more trips and value growth of 15% compared to last year. Natural fish growth was due to some strong promotional support with 27% more volume sold on promotion. Again, salmon is the big winner with volumes up 21% on last year as more promotions help drive sales. Shellfish suffered over Christmas, without a large uplift in sales, despite increased promotional support.”

Will the forecast Beast from the East mean we turn to warming favourites, or will Veganuary bite into the MFP category? Stay tuned for our next update in four weeks’ time, where we will analyse the first weeks of 2019.

Grocery along with fresh and chilled experience a similar slow down with growth now at 1.8% and 1.4% respectively, compared to 2.5% and 2.2% last period.

Volume growth also eased this period with dairy down to 2.8% compared to 3.3% last period while fresh and chilled fell to 1.8%. Grocery remains stable at 1.5% volume growth with larger basket sizes, as seen across dairy also being the main driver of growth.

Commenting on the findings, Nishita Pattni, Client Executive, Kantar Worldpanel said: “The reduction in growth can be seen through all categories in dairy, most significantly in butter which saw growth fall by £7.7 million. Milk and margarine are also struggling with growth slowing by £4.7 million and £3.5 million respectively. With all sectors in a period of slowed growth, cheese stands out for experiencing the smallest slowdown in growth.

Pattni continues: “All retailers suffered with dairy sales slowing in the recent period except Co-Op and Lidl. Most notably Tesco saw sales decline by £10.3 million with Aldi also facing significant reductions in sales by £7.3 million. Tesco drives the decline of butter with sales reduced by £3.9 million. Sainsbury’s is also contributing with sales falling at £1.1 million for butter.”

Growth of non-promoted sales is the main factor contributing to dairy’s decline, with growth slowing by £25.6 million. This is echoed across butter where Y for X deals have been reduced by £7.2 million, largely driving the overall slowdown. All social classes see a similar level of decline across total dairy, but particularly the retired and pre-family life stages drive decline for dairy. Retired shoppers also struggle in butter as do young families. 

Fraser McKevitt, head of retail and consumer insight, commented: “Despite the supermarket sector growing at 1.6% – its slowest rate since March 2017 – the retailers clocked in another record-breaking Christmas as households racked up an average spend of £383 in grocery bills for the month of December.  Saturday 22 December proved to be the busiest shopping day of the year: more than half of all households visited one of the grocers in a last-minute Christmas dash, with 1.7 million additional customers walking through the aisles compared to the Saturday before.   

“Although the grocers achieved record sales, overall spend was actually tempered by lower inflation of 1.3% – that’s less than half the level of like-for-like inflation of 3.6% which was recorded in Christmas 2017.  This slower inflation rate helped shoppers to manage their festive budgets, with 60% of customers looking to make savvier decisions to make their money go further over the holidays.” 

Seasonal confectionery hit the mark with shoppers – up 7% – while non-alcoholic beer and Christmas puddings clocked in sales of £7.6 million and £40.8 million respectively.  Meanwhile whole turkeys fell out of favour and experienced a drop of 7% as some shoppers opted for smaller joints, such as crowns, in a bid to crack down on endless leftovers.    

Although growing at half the rate of last year, premium own-label lines still increased by 3.7% over the 12-week period – hitting a record £1.1 billion in sales – as customers looked to trade up on quality for their Christmas dinner.  Fraser McKevitt adds: “Asda’s ‘Extra Special’ range was the fastest growing of any premium line of the major retailers, helping the supermarket achieve growth of 0.7% and come out top among the big four.  Asda was also bolstered by a standout online performance as its e-commerce sales rocketed by 12%.” 

Almost neck and neck with Asda, Tesco experienced growth of 0.6% boosted by an extra 125,000 customers shopping at the supermarket, particularly at its larger stores.  Tesco was the only retailer which increased its promotional activity year-on-year, bringing in discounts such as its 29-pence pricing strategy on vegetables.  Tesco’s market share now stands at 27.8% – down 0.3 percentage points compared with this time last year.

Sainsbury’s market share dropped by 0.3 percentage points as sales fell by 0.4%.  With the Competition Market Authority’s verdict on the proposed Sainsbury’s-Asda merger predicted to be published in February, all eyes will be trained on Sainsbury’s over the next few weeks.  Meanwhile, Morrisons market share declined by 0.2 percentage points to 10.6% despite sales growth of 0.1%.

Fraser McKevitt comments: “The discounters have continued to make their mark over Christmas: two-thirds of all households shopped at either Aldi or Lidl over the 12-week period culminating in a highest-ever combined Christmas market share of 12.8%.  With sales up 10.4%, Aldi narrowly won the crown of the fastest-growing supermarket and it appears its marketing efforts are paying off – at least when it comes to vegetables.  The return of Kevin the Carrot contributed to an 18% increase in carrot sales and nearly one in five households bought the vegetable at the discounter.”

Lidl experienced growth of 9.4%.  Nearly one-third of the supermarket’s December growth came through sales of branded products while its ‘Deluxe’ line saw sales jump by 33% over the month.  Meanwhile, Co-op was the only retailer to beat its 2017 growth rate, and this now stands at 3.2%.  The retailer’s market share increased for the seventh period in a row, most recently up by 0.1 percentage points to 5.9%.  With 100 new stores set to open this year – a third of which will be in London and the south east – Co-op could see its good fortunes continue into 2019.

Iceland now accounts for 2.3% of the market – up 0.1 percentage points compared with this time last year.  Four-fifths of its growth came from its non-frozen lines as perceptions of the retailer continue to shift.  Sales at Waitrose dropped 1.7% and it now holds market share of 5.0% – down 0.2 percentage points.  Meanwhile, Ocado’s market share fell by 0.1 percentage points despite growth of 1.3%. 

Fraser McKevitt continues: “Unlike its high street counterpart, the grocery market has been less affected by the move to online.  Although e-commerce is growing – up 3.9% compared to this time last year – online grocery shopping is failing to attract new customers.  Instead, growth stemmed from existing customers spending an additional £9.07 over the month of December.  Though not included in our till roll data set, Amazon remains one to watch as its FMCG sales jumped by 16% over the 12-week period.”

Ends

An update on inflation

Grocery inflation now stands at +1.3%† for the 12 week period ending 30 December 2018. Prices have been rising since the 12 weeks to 1 January 2017, following a period of grocery price deflation which ran for 30 consecutive periods from September 2014 to December 2016. Prices are rising fastest in markets such as cola, fresh lamb and batteries, while falling in fresh bacon and pork, instant coffee and fruit.

#treatyoself has 4.3million posts on Instagram and the culture of self-gifting is widely accepted and promoted. We are seeing luxury products on the up while mass is bearing the brunt of the downturn, with mass makeup penetration dropping by 4% since 2014, whilst prestige makeup has increased by 2%.

This may have come as a result of our continually reducing repertoire of personal care products - this downward trend in usage seems to have prompted an increase in treating ourselves to better quality products. The new mantra being: ‘I don’t use as much, but when I do I’m willing to invest’. 

Make it rein-deer

On average, about a fifth of us say that we like to spend when it comes to beauty products.  Almost half of Brazilians claim to spend a lot on beauty, followed by just over a third of Germans.  The French and the British are least likely to treat themselves. Those who splurge on beauty are more likely to be female, apart from in Germany where the men are 10% more likely than the women to admit to spending on themselves.  

% of People Who Agree that they ‘Like to Spend Lots on Beauty Products’

The latest grocery market share figures from Kantar Worldpanel show that the festive spirit isn’t necessarily lifting the grocery market with the market growing at 2%, its slowest rate since March 2017. Lamb, chicken, turkey and chilled fish are all growing value ahead of grocery, so are important markets to help drive growth in grocery, which is a really positive picture considering the pressures on the market over much of 2018.

Nathan Ward, Business Unit Director, MFP, explains: “Primary meat, poultry and chilled fish are the key areas seeing growth, with chicken and turkey driving the meat and poultry category, whilst chilled fish is boosted by natural and smoked products. Processed markets are seeing a real slowdown after a strong summer performance, with bacon particularly under pressure. We expect to see bacon sales rise towards Christmas as shoppers buy into gammon and the extra weekend before Christmas helps drive consumption of cooked breakfasts. Christmas is coming early as turkey starts to see its annual surge in sales, with volumes up almost 20% compared to the same period last year”

Ward, continues: “Red meat continues the decline we saw last month, driven by the core cuts of joints, mince and steaks. This has left the beef category seeing 2.2m fewer trips to the category. Promotions are down in joints and steaks, but mince is seeing the decline driven by non-promoted sales as the core shoppers, who are older dependents, empty nesters and retired households, buy significantly less volume. Lamb’s value performance has turned around, but volumes are still down as chops, shoulders and mince all decline.”.

Chicken remains the strong performer of the big four proteins with 413,000 more shoppers and 3.9m more trips to the category. Chicken breasts and legs are still the strongest performers, through more non-promoted trips driving the growth. Chicken is benefitting from the versatility of the protein and its alignment with the growing dishes in the market.

Ward continues: “Chilled fish has bounced back after a tough year with stronger growth in both value and volume. This period sees the return to volume growth for all sectors except shellfish, which is a real bonus for a category that has had a tough few years. We’ve seen 318,000 more shoppers and 1.8m more trips as shoppers flow back into the category. Christmas is traditionally a strong time for smoked salmon and shellfish, so hopefully the demand will help to turn around the performance of shellfish. The category has lost 846,000 baskets year on year, driven by prawns and crab.”

Our next update will cover the all important Christmas period, will turkey win Christmas dinner or will red meat bounce back? Are we all going veggie for Christmas? Whatever happens, I’d like to say thanks for reading our MFP updates each month and wish you all a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year, stay tuned for our Christmas update in four weeks’ time.

Fraser McKevitt, head of retail and consumer insight at Kantar Worldpanel, comments: “Consumers are benefiting from falling inflation.  It now stands at 1.6% – less than half the rate of inflation in December 2017, when it reached 3.6% – leading to a slowdown in the overall market.  Over the summer shoppers upped their weekly trips to the grocers as they took advantage of the hot weather, but with the mercury dropping the number of trips has tailed off – again contributing to waning market growth.”

Black Friday – which fell on 23 November – saw footfall to the entertainment, toy and electrical retailers nearly double, but had little impact on the supermarkets.  While the majority of households did take part in Black Friday, e-commerce trumped bricks-and-mortar shopping for non-FMCG products*.

Despite the grocery market slowdown, Christmas spending is still expected to break records.  Fraser McKevitt continues: “The last time Christmas Day fell on a Tuesday was in 2012 and the Saturday before was the busiest shopping day of the year.  We expect the same trend to hold true this year, with Saturday 22 December pulling in the last-minute Christmas crowds. 

“Because of the way Christmas falls, grocers have an extra trading day this year meaning overall sales in December – up to and including Christmas Eve – could reach £10 billion.  Despite an uncertain political climate taking its toll on consumer confidence, shoppers are still willing to spend that little bit extra on more expensive goods.  Total premium own-label lines are growing at 5.5%, which could lead to record sales in this price tier of £1.1 billion over the 12-week period.”  

There are already tell-tale signs of a bumper Christmas: over the month of November, sales of festive favourites jumped as shoppers began stocking up in preparation for Christmas.  More than one in eight households have already bought a Christmas pudding, while boxed chocolate and Brussel sprout sales have reached £292 million and £18 million respectively. 

Meanwhile, the discounters continue to perform well, with both Aldi and Lidl experiencing double-digit growth over the last 12 weeks.  Fraser McKevitt adds: “Boosted by a number of store openings in November, Aldi maintained its position as the fastest-growing supermarket and saw its market share rise by 0.7 percentage points to 7.6%.  Lidl’s market share also jumped – up 0.5 percentage points to 5.6% – with sales of the supermarket’s premium Deluxe line experiencing particularly strong growth of 24%.”

Buoyed by sales growth of 1.5%, Asda led the big four pack and held market share at 15.0%.  Tesco and Sainsbury’s both saw sales fall, down 0.1% and 0.2% respectively.  Tesco’s market share now stands at 27.6% compared to this time last year, while Sainsbury’s clocks in at 16.0%.  

Fraser McKevitt continues: “One of only three retailers to win market share this period, Co-op increased sales by 4.5% and attracted an additional 298,000 shoppers through its doors.  Meanwhile, Morrisons’ sales increase of 0.5% now marks two years of continual growth for the retailer, though compared with this time last year its market share has fallen by 0.1 percentage points.”

Iceland increased sales for the ninth consecutive period, holding market share steady at 2.2%.  Waitrose sales fell by 0.7% and overall market share dropped to 4.9%.  Online specialist Ocado experienced sales growth of 3.4%.  Overall online FMCG sales jumped by 3.7% compared with this time last year, meaning e-commerce’s share of grocery sales reached a record high of 7.4% in the latest 12 weeks. 

Ends

*Data on Black Friday is based on behavioural and questionnaire responses from a continuous panel of 38,643 adults (aged 18+) in Great Britain conducted by Kantar Worldpanel Plus through the Shoppix app. Data was analysed over the 16 weeks to 25 November 2018. 

An update on inflation

Grocery inflation now stands at +1.6%† for the 12 week period ending 2 December 2018. Prices have been rising since the 12 weeks to 1 January 2017, following a period of grocery price deflation which ran for 30 consecutive periods from September 2014 to December 2016. Prices are rising fastest in markets such as cola, sparkling wine and dog food, while falling in fresh pork, ambient cooking sauces and fruit.

The retailers who appear to be winning in grocery over recent years offer various forms of EDLP. In particular Aldi and Lidl have grown significantly in the last five years and now have 13% share of the market. B&M Bargain and Home Bargains have also seen significant growth, and they too follow an everyday low-price strategy. The offer is an attractive one for shoppers, based on a simple message and a price promise of continuous low prices all of the time, as opposed to on or off promotional prices which change continually.

The current drive for EDLP shows the discounters’ ability to influence others. The big four retailers have traditionally relied on frequent promotions to incentivise shoppers, known as the ‘HiLo’ model. Increasingly, retailers now look to offer a greater number of products at everyday low prices -especially commonly bought items. Value simplicity, everyday low prices, and the emphasis on prices staying down are forming an increasing part of retailers’ messaging.

For retailers it is evident that perceived low prices can be a great way to attract shoppers and retain them. It offers a practical benefit for manufacturers too – it is far easier to predict demand when a continuous price is offered, compared with the constant peaks and troughs of volume that we see when a brand does frequent promotions. It makes forecasting and production easier, so makes sense operationally.

A sure thing? Or reasons to be sceptical

Considering EDLP’s apparent momentum, it is worth asking why manufacturers and retailers should be sceptical at all before going headlong to EDLP and abandoning promotions.

The first obvious argument against using an EDLP approach in an attempt to match the pace of the discounters, is that whilst the discounters are growing, they are still smaller than the big four grocers. The latter still promote extensively, so while the momentum is with EDLP, HiLo accounts for more sales in value terms.

A second reason to be sceptical is that promotions are good for retailers and brands. Kantar Worldpanel’s models show that more often than not, a promotion benefits a retailer. The volume-generating benefits of promotions are well known, but retailers express concerns that they may simply switch sales to a promoted item, with no real benefit to the retailer. In reality, our research shows that two out of three promotions grow a retailer’s incremental sales value -  the extra sales more than offsetting any switching within the portfolio.

For brands, promotions are even more vital. Kantar Worldpanel’s models on promotional effectiveness show that 99% of deals generate incremental sales value for the promoting brand.  Whilst it may be operationally simpler to do EDLP, the peaks and troughs of promotions are a fail-safe way of growing your sales value. For brands in the top four grocers, 55% of sales are made on promotion, so there is a lot at stake.

The third reason is what we call the Sensodyne effect; when higher-priced, and in perception, higher quality brands are on promotion, this encourages shoppers to trade-up. Effectively the promotion encourages shoppers to buy something more expensive than their usual purchase. In the toothpaste category, our models show that Sensodyne does this effectively. The retailer benefits from this effect as the sales value of the purchase is higher. Abandoning promotions in favour of EDLP means losing your trade-up potential. If you are a brand like Sensodyne, which benefits from shoppers trading up like this, then EDLP does not seem to be a logical strategy. And logically, if your product commands a higher price than the category average, you should be even more sceptical.

Finally there are two much simpler reasons why you might want to be an EDLP-sceptic. For a retailer, it is not possible for everybody to be the cheapest. If a top four retailer attempts an EDLP strategy, should they aim to  be cheaper than the discounters, or just cheaper than they used to be on full price items? If the latter, they run the risk of actually achieving a neither here nor there strategy; not as cheap as the cheapest discounter, but with fewer eye-catching promotions to encourage more spending from shoppers accustomed to them.

Adopting EDLP as a brand means never changing your price, whilst your competitors can add promotional events at will. On average, a quarter of a brand’s sales on promotion are stolen directly from competitors. The worst-case scenario is that the novelty of EDLP wears out, competitors offer promotions which steal from you, and brand owners have little flexibility to react quickly. Unlike a HiLo plan, where potentially the depth and frequency of discounts can be flexed, classic EDLP means never changing. The tactical plan is fixed and if it’s not working the options are limited.

Will it work for me?

Without research, we don’t know.

Our clients often approach us for possible proof, or at least evidence, that EDLP will work. But any price change involves risk. The best way to minimise your risk is to have a measure of price sensitivity through modelling and simulation of price scenarios. There could be benefits but without some form of informed price modelling it is not possible to quantify if you will be an EDLP winner or a loser, and what strategy is open to you. So the key advice would be to conduct research, look to minimize your risk, and retain a healthy dose of scepticism.

The experience you never knew you wanted

Above and beyond this, successful products are those that can provide a solution to a consumer’s problem – a positive experience at its most simple. That is why the gold standard for product development is to simultaneously highlight a problem and present a solution in one fell swoop. This is often visible in household and health and beauty, where, for example, many gels, conditioners, moisturisers and fabric softeners now answer challenges which 30 years ago consumers didn’t even know they had – the need for seasonally scented toilet paper being one prime example. Similarly, nobody considered shaving products, beer or sanitary towels as anything but standard supermarket trolley items a generation ago. Yet now all have been very successfully adapted into subscription services such as Harry’s, Honest Brew Honesty Box and Flux, each of them giving consumers an experience that once upon a time they never knew they wanted.

As with anything, sometimes success is down to serendipity. It isn’t always possible to predict what the next must have item or viral sensation will be, and when it does happen it will almost certainly be something most consumers could never have foreseen.

In these instances, it’s about brands and manufacturers keeping their finger on the pulse and being fleet of foot. It might not be easy to spot the next experiential trend and it’s the lucky few that are the first to hit the mark, but it’s certainly a good idea to have a responsive and flexible supply chain which can adapt as quickly as possible.

Turning a want into a need

However, retailers and manufacturers need to be careful when developing new products and initiatives based around an experiential marketing model. An easy mistake to make when products are developed with an experiential aspect in mind is to heavily promote them. The effect of this approach is the opposite of what is desired – it lowers the perceived value in the eye of the consumer. While this can be true of anything with a heavy promotional campaign behind it, for those using an experiential model, it carries the double burden of lowering the perceived value of the product and the expectations around the experience. Having the confidence in your product is vital – turning what consumers want into what they need is the blueprint for making new ideas succeed.

This is an excerpt from our report "How does that make you feel?" about the power of consumer experiences. Get your copy of the report today, and watch the video in which Phil Dorsett explains how providing an element of experience can set your NPD apart.

More needs, more opportunities to trade up

Health is a word on everyone’s lips, with one in three food items chosen to satisfy a health-related need and the market now worth £23 billion a year.  Unsurprisingly, we’re willing to spend more for food that’s good for us, with healthy sectors now commanding a 9% premium, up from 7% last year.

Brands such as Halo Top have given shoppers a reason to trade up, with their premium, low calorie, low sugar and high protein ice cream. The offering has simultaneously managed to tap into the health trend while also delivering indulgent flavours. And meeting more needs means more opportunities to drive spend. Consumers can be traded up to a more premium price when the product caters to more than one need, and will pay on average 24% more when it satisfies four needs.

Social events command higher spend

It’s not just manufacturers that are tapping into consumers’ desire for more. Retailers are also benefitting from our love of luxury, seeing 9% growth in premium private label compared with last year, while economy private label grows at just 3%. We are also willing to part with our well-earned cash when it comes to socialising; spending more on emotionally-engaged occasions over functional ones. Whether it’s celebrating with friends, enjoying a romantic night in or just spending some quality time together with the family, we are willing to spend a 13% premium on a social occasion. These special events provide an opportunity for retailers and manufacturers alike to drive premiumisation.

At a time when consumers are carefully managing stretched household budgets, providing solutions to real needs is the only way to persuade consumers to pay a premium. And while shoppers continue to look for more out of the products they’re picking up off the shelf, that’s exactly what manufacturers and retailers alike need to offer in order to take advantage of these pockets of spending.

In Home & Carried Out | 52 w/e June 2018 and 52 w/e August 2018

1. ONS

The biggest contributors to FMCG e-commerce growth are China Mainland and the US, which both grew at 30% – in line with the average growth rate for global online FMCG sales over the past half decade. In terms of online share of total sales, Asian economies lead the way. South Korea tops of the table with an online value market share of 19.9% followed by China Mainland (9.5%), where access to rural areas is crucial in expanding e-commerce penetration. Taiwan (8.0%), Japan (7.6%), the UK (7.2%) and France (5.6%) follow.

FMCG value growth

Source: Kantar Worldpanel, 12 months ending June 2018

Online FMCG value sales, % of total FMCG sales

Source: Kantar Worldpanel, 12 months ending June 2018

Pure players beat traditional competitors to drive online growth
Online pure players like Amazon, Alibaba and JD.com are attracting new shoppers while traditional retailers are seeing a decline in online customers. In Asia, pure players have made significant steps in consolidating their market growth over the past year – in South Korea alone, pure players now account for 84.5% of the online FMCG market and are attracting three out of four online grocery shoppers.

Pure players vs traditional retailers (brick and mortar and e-commerce offer), % value share of online

Source: Kantar Worldpanel, 12 months ending June 2018

Online purchase behaviour
Almost nine out of 10 Chinese shoppers prefer using their smartphone to make FMCG purchases online. This is in contrast to only 29% of British shoppers – almost half of consumers in the UK use a laptop, similar to French and Spanish trends.

Eric Batty, global e-commerce business development director at Kantar Worldpanelsays: “The fact that 90% of Chinese consumers use their smartphones to buy online groceries is staggering and shows what can be achieved. European retailers and brands have a lot to learn – they have a huge opportunity to increase sales among a more dynamic and savvy audience who prefer to shop in this way. However, it’s crucial that they take a country-by-country approach to acknowledge the different devices, websites and apps which shoppers elect to use in different geographical markets.”

Fulfilment models
Online grocery home delivery has been adopted by almost all British and Chinese online shoppers but there is growth in France and Spain. Meanwhile, British consumers are increasingly moving to a new fulfilment model – subscriptions, which are used by 16.1% of the country’s online shoppers – representing an opportunity for the rest of Europe and in China Mainland.

Forecast
“Only a quarter of the world’s population currently shops for their groceries online, so it will be vital to attract new shoppers by providing a frictionless, convenient and pleasant shopping experience both online and off,” says Stéphane Roger, global shopper and retail director at Kantar Worldpanel.

“We predict that by 2025 online will represent over 10% of global FMCG sales. While China Mainland and the US will continue to lead the way and Asian markets will stay at the cutting edge of online adoption, there is still much to play for worldwide – especially by exploring opportunities to invest in emerging markets like India, Indonesia, Brazil, Mexico and Africa.”

Download the press release with charts through the link in the right.

The gap to total grocery and fresh and chilled decreased as the two markets grew at 2.5% and 2.2% respectively, compared with 3.1% and 2.9% last period.

Despite value growth easing, all three markets saw improved volume growth as the impact of rising prices becomes less significant, dairy up 3.3% compared with 1.5% volume growth in grocery and 2.2% in fresh and chilled.

Commenting on the findings Oliver Bluring, Client Executive, Kantar Worldpanel said: “This slow down can be seen across a number of key dairy categories, though most notably yoghurt, which sees growth fall by £5.5 million compared with last period. Fromage frais also saw growth decline by £3.1million -  a much bigger drop off for this smaller sector. Eggs were the only dairy category to see a strong sales uplift in the last 12 weeks with an increase of £1.5milllion.”

Bluring continues: “All the major retailers saw a decline in the growth of dairy sales over the latest period, with the exception of Waitrose. Sainsbury’s in particular saw reduced growth of £4.1 million, but a £650,000 decline from Ocado represented the biggest proportional drop in sales.  More than half of the online retailer’s losses came through yoghurt and fromage frais. Tesco and Morrisons saw a reduction in growth of £3.7million and £1.8million respectively.

The vast majority of the reduced sales growth in yoghurt and fromage frais is a result of the continued decline of Y for £X promotions, though growth of full price sales reduced slightly also. This effect is mirrored at a total dairy level, where we also see reduced growth of both promoted and full price sales.

The decline of dairy has come through the more affluent classes, whose spend is down by £12 million, while pre-family consumers see a reduction of £7 million. For yoghurt and fromagefrais, the problem is widespread across all demographics, though most notably empty nesters and pre-families are the groups engaging less with the category.

There is only one more update before Christmas. Will the dairy market continue to ease, and will eggs enjoy a period of sustained growth? Stay tuned for our next update in 4 weeks’ time.

The latest grocery market share figures from Kantar Worldpanel show value sales have increased by 2.6%, and chilled fish is the only meat, fish and poultry category which is growing ahead of the overall grocery market. Much of the grocery growth has come through smaller top up trips, which increased at twice the rate of larger trolley shops. This is an area of opportunity for many MFP markets.

Nathan Ward, Business Unit Director, MFP, explains: “Primary meat and poultry and chilled fish are the key areas seeing growth, with pork, chicken and turkey driving the meat and poultry category, whilst chilled fish is boosted by natural and smoked products. We know that the summer uplift seen in the processed categories is leaving the market, but that doesn’t completely explain the slower growth year-on-year.”

Ward, continues: “Red meat continues to see decline in beef, but lamb’s volume decline has slowed and pork has returned to volume growth - driven by 419,000 more trips compared to last year. The key cuts driving this are pork steaks and shoulder joints – up 14% and 34% respectively – as a result of greater use of promotions and the change of season. Value sales of pork are in decline despite the volume growth, as prices fall across all major cuts with prices down 2.6% on average. Pork continues to win in volume overall, as the key protein dominating the more processed categories of bacon and sausages.”

Lamb has seen a surge in popularity as leg joints (up 19%), steaks (up 6%) and stewing cuts (up 6%) see volume growth, but even with these categories growing we are seeing  and overall volume decline with 1.15m fewer trips for lamb compared to last year. Chicken remains the strong performer of the big four proteins with 3.8m more trips to the category, with whole birds returning to growth alongside breasts, legs and wings.

Ward continues: “Chilled fish has bounced back after a tough year with renewed growth in both value and volume. This period sees the return to volume growth for added value lines, whilst natural and smoked fish continues to be popular with consumers – having featured in 1.7m more baskets and been picked up by 180,000 more shoppers than last year. Older and upmarket shoppers are key to its popularity, while shoppers in the young families and empty nester groups are increasing spend at a faster rate. Salmon is boosting chilled fish, with growth in volume up 10%, driven by natural and smoked salmon. Natural salmon is up 18% with 2.1m more trips and 644,000 more shoppers - with promotions up 40% and a return to Y for £X deals. Smoked salmon is up 20%, as shoppers added it to 1.5m more baskets and base prices fall.”

There is only one more update before Christmas and we can already see the demand for turkey soaring.  What will happen once polar winds hit the British Isles? Will roasts return, will steaks sizzle? Stay tuned for our next update in 4 weeks’ time.

Fraser McKevitt, head of retail and consumer insight at Kantar Worldpanel, comments: “Five years ago, just under half of British households were visiting one of the discount retailers at least once in a 12 week period.  This now stands at almost two-thirds, which is reflected in their continued growth. 

“Aldi’s sales increase of 15.5% this period is the fastest rate since January 2018; this has helped lift its market share by 0.9 percentage points to 7.6%, which is the largest year-on-year share gain by any retailer in nearly four years.  Meanwhile, Lidl is in double digit growth for the second month running; sales are up by 10.2% compared with a year ago and its market share is up 0.4 percentage points to 5.5%.”

At a total market level, sales increased by 2.6%.  This is slower compared with recent months but still represents a £663 million increase in sales through the tills.  Much of the growth came through smaller top up trips, which increased at twice the rate of larger trolley shops.

A dry summer meant this year’s pumpkin crop produced smaller than usual specimens, but this didn’t frighten off shoppers who spent 24% more on the Hallowe’en favourites this October compared with last year – nearly £7 million in total.  Chocolate sales jumped by 7% while sweets were up by 5% in the same time period.

Among the retailers Co-op was the other big winner this period, with sales up by 5.1%.  The retailer has cornered a further 0.2% of the market, taking its total share to 6.3% and securing a seventh consecutive period of sales growth.  The grocer has attracted an extra 213,000 shoppers in the latest period while own label has had an especially noteworthy performance, outpacing brands particularly in categories as varied as biscuits, ice cream and cleaning supplies. 

A high-profile environmental stance is helping Iceland to thrive among a much wider set of shoppers than its traditional heartland, as Fraser McKevitt explains: “Nearly 37% of Iceland’s sales come from the more affluent ABC1 social group – five years ago this was less than a third.  Its banned palm oil Christmas advert is tugging at the heartstrings of Britain’s middle classes and could translate into strong sales growth, especially if it manages to pique the interest of the half of the population who haven’t shopped there in the past year.  Sales are already up by 5.0% this period and while frozen food is still increasing, 94% of this growth actually comes from its fresh, chilled and ambient food aisles.”

Sales at Asda have increased by 2.6% year-on-year meaning the retailer has now been in continual growth since April 2017.  A strong online performance was bolstered by increased spend in-store and, despite being a more brand-orientated retailer, sales of both the core Asda lines and its premium Extra Special range grew faster than branded products.  

Morrisons has achieved its 25th consecutive period of growth, with sales up 1.5% in the 12 weeks to 4 November.  Fraser McKevitt comments: “In line with its competitors Morrisons is making fewer sales overall through promotions though it has been steadily increasing the number of products sold through multi-buy deals since May.  The retailer’s market share has fallen slightly, down 0.1 percentage points to 10.3%.”

At Tesco sales were up by 0.4%, with market share down by 0.6 percentage points to 27.5%.  Sainsbury’s sales fell by 0.6%, the first decline for the retailer since June.  However, its e-commerce channel continues to be a bright spot and is achieving double digit growth as it reaches 7% of Sainsbury’s total shopper base.

Sales fell by 1.0% at Waitrose, marking the first decline for the John Lewis-owned supermarket since February 2009 – shortly before it launched its Waitrose Essentials range.  This brings an end to the longest run of growth for any of the bricks and mortar retailers excluding the discounters – in these 126 periods Waitrose’s share of the market rose from 3.9% to 5.1% today.  Online specialist Ocado saw sales rise by 4.3%, with share remaining at 1.1%.

Ends

An update on inflation

Grocery inflation now stands at +1.8%* for the 12 week period ending 4 November 2018.  Prices have been rising since the 12 weeks to 1 January 2017, following a period of grocery price deflation which ran for 30 consecutive periods from September 2014 to December 2016.  Prices are rising fastest in markets such as cola, sparkling wine and butter.

Are men becoming more involved? 

Even with the increase in product innovation, we are seeing regime simplification affecting both the male and female markets. The growth of multi-benefit products, coupled with consumers' increasing lack of time, has meant men are opting for the “less is more” approach and dropping products from their routine - going from using 7 products in their weekly routine down to 6 since 2013. They're more likely to buy the products they are using themselves; evidence that they are becoming more involved in the purchasing of their own products than ever before.
 
For example, in Brazil, 3% more men claim to buy their own products than in 2014. Germans have the highest engagement, with 82% of men saying they purchase their own personal care products compared with a quarter in Italy.

What motivates men’s buying behaviour? 

As men become more involved in the purchasing process, it is important to understand what their main drivers of purchase are. Historically, women were the primary shoppers for themselves and their household, however, our purchase data shows that there’s been an increase in men buying male products whilst women’s buying has remained flat (52 weeks to 7 October 2018).

Men in Great Britain are very brand-loyal; just under half claim they “always choose the same brand”, with value being 2^nd most important factor for them. Overwhelmingly, brand loyalty is the top driver for men's purchases across many countries including Germany, Brazil and Spain. 

What products are driving this engagement?
 
If men are buying their own personal care products what are they most likely to pick up? In Great Britain, razors and face moisturiser are at the top of the list, meaning men are more involved with these categories than others. Shampoo, on the other hand, is one of the least involved products; a third of men do not buy their own, and over half claim they are happy to use whatever is available at home.
 
What are the other reasons for men not purchasing their own products? Does involvement in purchasing differ by age? Why are men invested in razors? Why are men using the product that they are most likely to purchase?

Kantar Worldpanel’s shopper panel shows that key organic categories have gone into decline year on year, with frozen lines down 11% and sales of organic household products dropping by a whopping 48%.

This could be the start of another downturn for organic, similar to the one seen in 2008. Organic ranges grew steadily between 2003 and February 2008, when the market reached £97 million in value. However by September 2008, this had declined to just £77 million, as shoppers began to tighten their belts in response to the global economic crash.

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The organic market has a high proportion of light buyers, with 81% of organic shoppers spending less than £40 per year.  The new Worldpanel Plus findings, based on a survey of 34,297 panellists, also find that a high proportion (72%) of shoppers have the perception that organic products are too expensive, and only one in five of those who do buy into it say organic credentials are important to them when choosing a product.

One factor which could be contributing to shoppers’ ambivalence towards organic is the rise of “naturalness” and confusion between the two propositions. While 48% of shoppers say they buy organic food, many more (78%) say they seek out “natural” products. When asked to define what constitutes “natural”, shoppers mention being eco-friendly, better for their health and not artificial – attributes which may once have been strongly associated with organic products.

Get in touch with a member of our Worldpanel Plus team to find out how you can use the service to get broader, faster, deeper insights.

Based on a Shoppix survey from 34,297 panellists, sample is not nationally representative, October 2018.

Dominic Sunnebo, Global Director for Kantar Worldpanel ComTech comments, “Healthy early sales of iPhone XS and iPhone XS Max models in the States are good news for Apple.  Combined with the continued strong momentum we’re seeing among its iPhone 8 and 8 Plus, these sales have contributed to a 5.0 percentage point increase in OS share for Apple in the US – the biggest gain seen worldwide this quarter.  iPhone 8 was the top selling model in the US over the quarter, with a 9.4% share of the handset market, and with iPhone XR launching outside this period we’d expect Apple share to tick up further towards the end of the year.”

“The picture is different in Europe, with competition remaining fierce among Android handset brands.  European consumers are holding on to their handsets more than two months longer than they were in 2016 meaning the introduction of innovative new models is more important than ever.  Huawei is one manufacturer making significant steps in the right direction – six months on from the launch of its P20 series it has consolidated its position as the second best-selling brand in Europe behind Samsung.  Meanwhile, last month’s launch of its Mate 20 and Mate 20 Pro are further evidence of the investment Huawei is making in research and development meaning its strong performance is likely to continue into next year.

“Xiaomi is continuing to expand rapidly in Spain and, more recently, in Italy and France.  The focused push that the two Chinese giants are making into Europe is causing pain for their rivals across the board.  However, it is Sony, LG and Wiko who are being disproportionally impacted as a result of their historic over-reliance on the ultra-competitive low and mid-price tiers.”

The Samsung Galaxy S9 was the top selling model across the big five European markets in September. Meanwhile, the newly released Galaxy Note 9 has made it into the top 10 most popular models for the month.  In further evidence of the new market dynamics in Europe, both Huawei and Xiaomi achieved places in the top five handset ranking for the first time in the form of the P20 Lite and Note 5 respectively.

Apple continues to lead handset sales in Japan despite strong pressure from Sharp and Huawei.  Both brands have seen strong gains, increasing their share of sales by 6 percentage points and 3.2 percentage points respectively; Sharp’s flagship Aquos R2 and Huawei’s P20 Lite both made it into the top five best-selling list for the third quarter.

In China, each of the top three brands this quarter – Huawei, Xiaomi and Apple – saw their market share increase year-on-year.  The Xiaomi Mi 8 was the best-selling model during the period while iPhone models made up three out of next four best-selling models, led by iPhone X.  OPPO, which has a particularly strong 2017, has seen its performance slow and has subsequently lost share, down to 8.4% from 14.1% a year ago.  

This is the philosophy behind brands like Red Bull. Consumers don’t just choose it because of its taste or potency – they buy it because they can experience an associated thrill without ever actually needing to go skydiving or motor racing themselves. Customers aren’t only paying for an energy drink – they’re buying a vicarious rush.

A targeted approach

The increasing number of fashion brands and retailers launching collaborations with high-end designers, as H&M has done so successfully, over a similar attraction. These limited ranges aren’t intended for mass consumption – only a small proportion of consumers will ever get their hands on the product. Yet just knowing of their existence means customers can enjoy a relationship with a brand which carries premium, highly desirable lines and shares their style values. Brands can use this thinking to employ experiences which enhance their outward perception, without the need to actively engage with their entire target audience.

This phenomenon is also well demonstrated by the sheer volume of consumers who are now willing to buy products which they can’t actually ‘use’. The vinyl resurgence, for example, is not simply down to a rise in music lovers seeking a higher quality sound. People are also buying records without the intention of ever playing them, doing so just for the second-hand authenticity and nostalgia that vinyl brings them.

Back to basics

In fact, 40% of people are attracted to products which make them feel nostalgic, and examples like the vinyl trend show that people are willing to pay for this sensation. In the digital age it seems consumers are willing to go to extra lengths to own tangible and analogue products – even if they are only for show. This suggests that for some retailers and manufacturers, providing customers with an experience can be as simple as going back to basics and rewinding the clock. By embracing the most authentic and stripped back version of their product, they can in fact produce goods with a strong experiential characteristic.

This is an excerpt from our report "How does that make you feel?" about the power of consumer experiences. Get your copy of the report today, and watch the video in which Tolga Necar explains how associated experiences can give your brand a second-hand thrill. 

But what’s less clear is where responsibility lies for society’s response to climate change. When UK households were asked who they believe should be making changes to their behaviour, they pointed squarely at manufacturers (rather than themselves or the government)1. Of course, manufacturers tend to be share-holder owned businesses. Fundamentally their primary priority is to turn a profit, which is potentially at odds with any environmentally-friendly initiatives.

For example, if we look at laundry products, it is widely understood that many of us use too much when using ‘free pour’ formats like powder and liquids – and that capsules/tablets guarantee the correct quantity is used. We can prove this with simple data: a fabric conditioner buyer purchases 316 washes of fabric conditioner per year, but only 223 washes of clothes cleaners. Assuming they are not stockpiling at home (which long-term is unlikely), the likely reason is they are using an excess of product averaging 42% per wash. While this kind of wastage is not beneficial for the environment, it is fantastic for laundry manufacturers; every time consumers use too much product, the manufacturer benefits from their faster return to the store to stock up again.

That said, laundry is also one of the most successful markets at adopting concentrated product formats: concentrated liquids have reduced transport costs, opened up more space on shelf and have facilitated a reduced environmental footprint without the need to alter consumer behaviour (which is infamously difficult to influence).

However, concentrated formats are not a sure-fire route to success in all categories. Unilever’s launch of compressed deodorants in 2013 has not led to the market-wide transformation the sustainability-conscious might have hoped for – despite cutting carbon footprint by 25% per can. Today, only 3.1% of deodorant sold is in compressed packaging. Despite sharing technology with other manufacturers, considerable media campaigns educating the public, and a market leader endorsing the product, compressed deodorants are losing share (down 57% YoY).

There are many examples of sustainable successes and failures, the consistent lesson from which has been that having an environmental benefit is not enough to guarantee success. A benefit such as compression is only effective when all manufacturers follow suit, and fundamentally, compression is a difficult concept for shoppers to buy into. All things being equal (price, proposition etc), the core difference comes down to on-shelf perception – concentrated formats are smaller and require consumers to trust that it is truly like-for-like. Education campaigns can only do so much, and the UK consumer is often suspicious.

Is a sustainability benefit going to help me win?

While it might be an uncomfortable thought, sustainability on its own is not enough to ensure commercial success. If there are two equivalent products with no difference other than environmental benefit, this does not automatically mean that a shopper will pick that product off the shelf. While 53% of UK shoppers state “I feel better in myself when I buy products that I know are sustainable or better for the environment”2 providing this altruistic glow is not enough to guarantee you will win consideration.

Stan Sthanunathan, Unilever’s EVP of Global Consumer and Market Insight, brings all of this together in two sentences: “Sustainability alone is not enough, consumers want it all. It is not enough for a product to be sustainable but less good than the best the category can offer in terms of quality and value for money. People are not prepared to compromise on efficacy or pay more for the privilege. Consumers want it all. What we are now seeing is that sustainability drives brand love and therefore brand preference.”

With that in mind, it starts to make sense why some sustainable launches are so successful – and why some are not. When environmental wins are translated into consumer-centric benefits we can quickly uncover a plethora of more successful stories, in which brands have often been able to justify price premiums, such as:

• Plant-based packaging reduces exposure to microplastics, a health risk many are now concerned about – a recent study found more than 90% of bottled water contained microplastics, leading to a WHO investigation.3
• Unilever’s water-smart laundry products which reduce the amount of water needed to clean – in water-scarce environments, this is a huge consumer benefit.
• Local provenance, leading to shorter-distance supply chains (reducing transport impacts) while providing a perception of quality and local pride.
• Inclusion of natural ingredients which are better for the environment and perceived by consumers as healthier.
• Concentrated laundry formats which are lighter, and less cumbersome for shoppers.
• Multi-purpose personal care products which help save time while reducing the number of products needed (and therefore plastic packaging).

The case for intervention

As such, there are some FMCG environmental gains that are unlikely to ever become prevalent without intervention. A ready meal in plant-based packaging will likely cost more to produce than a plastic-based one, meaning a higher price point or poorer margin – with no clear consumer benefit beyond the knowledge that you have ‘done your part.' And while Iceland, for example, has voluntarily committed to eliminating all plastic from their own-label ranges by 2023, this will only affect 1% of all UK grocery volume.

From research we conducted earlier this year, we know 44% of consumers are now more concerned about single-use plastics than they used to be and 70% plan to switch or use less 4 – yet soft drinks, one of the most obvious sources of single-use plastic packaging, are in 4.6% YoY volume growth (52 weeks to 9 September 2018).

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There could be an argument for a ‘plastic tax’, not dissimilar to the sugar levy.  This would create an incentive for manufacturers to research plastic alternative packaging (and hopefully eventually bring down cost of production) while simultaneously generating the ultimate consumer benefit: competitive pricing. We now have to pay 10p every time we use a new plastic carrier bag at a supermarket, which means this has become far less attractive to consumers compared with the alternatives. The result has been a more than 85% drop within six months of introduction of the original 5p charge – 6.5 million bags taken out of circulation, all because of a shift in consumer benefit.

This kind of intervention is going to be necessary in cases where there’s no natural consumer or manufacturer incentive to change. The government is considering banning sweets and fatty snacks from being listed at check outs and removing all multibuy deals from these types of products, and many supermarkets have made it their policy not to sell energy drinks to children in anticipation of an upcoming ban. The plastic bag charge and soft drinks sugar levy have both proven to be effective – the average sugar content of soft drinks is down 14% at 20 weeks post-levy compared with last year. So why could the same logic not be applied to plastic packaging? Indeed, the government is already considering banning plastic straws and cotton buds altogether. 5

Looking to the longer-term, all of this could well become moot if we, as a society, are not able to make a collective move toward more sustainable habits. A recent BBC FutureNow article summarised this neatly: “Climate-related disasters like droughts and hurricanes, for example, are hitting pocketbooks and insurance premiums – even for people living on the other side of the world. Meanwhile, the complicated supply chains of a globalised retail industry mean that a disruption in one place can cause consequences elsewhere”. 6

In other words, we may find the potential long-term business costs of not reducing our environmental impact far outweigh short-term investments into R&D.

So, does purpose pay?

Yes, but only if it pays for both the manufacturer and the consumer. This means sometimes we will likely have to force that to happen (and long-term it will cost everyone a lot more not to!)

Sam Causley, analyst at Kantar Worldpanel, comments, “Marvel’s Spider-Man on the PlayStation 4 was a massive coup for Sony.  The game sold more copies in the first two months of its release than any PlayStation 4 exclusive in history suggesting its extensive marketing campaign was well worth the investment.  With Sony teasing fans in October by confirming that it is working on a fifth version of the PlayStation, it will be interesting to see whether future titles can replicate the game’s popularity.  Although this new console isn’t expected to launch until around 2020, the manufacturer will hope that the start of the countdown will generate more excitement around its games, rather than stunting sales of its current products.”   

Among the retailers, Amazon had the most success cashing in on new releases this quarter.  The online giant increased sales of brand new games by an impressive 60%, helping to grow its market share of the total entertainment sector by 1.8 percentage points to 23.2%.  This has widened the gap between Amazon and its closest rival, HMV, to almost five percentage points.  Sam Causley elaborates, “Amazon’s success was driven primarily by under 35 males, who accounted for £3.9 million of the £7.9 million growth.  This is unsurprisingly a core demographic for video games, but if the retailer works harder to reach more audiences it could improve its performance even further.”

Outside of the pure play retailers, Sainsbury’s had a strong quarter in home video, increasing its share of the DVD and Blu-ray market by 1.7 percentage points.  Despite this, the number of impulse buys of video products has dramatically fallen, translating to a loss of £18 million to the category compared with the same period last year.  Sam Causley continues, “While it does represent a stark loss, retailers could choose to see the drop in impulse purchases as a sign that they should focus on attracting more browsing shoppers.  The video market is a great opportunity for retailers to engage with fun, experiential marketing techniques.  By making aisles and displays enjoyable to explore, supermarkets can appeal to consumers who aren’t just looking to grab what they need and go.” 

“These sorts of campaigns appeal beyond a title’s regular fan base and are often discussed on social media and through word of mouth.  For example, one in 10 who bought Deadpool 2 were aware of its experiential marketing campaign which saw a pop-up version of 90s video store Blockbuster open for two days in Shoreditch.”

In the digital market, the UK remains a strong source of growth for Netflix.  The number of people who had access to an account with the streaming service in the month to 23 September increased by 31% compared with the same time last year.  This was faster growth than its closest competitor, Amazon Prime, which registered a 24% increase in the same period.  In music, those with a subscription to streaming services reached an all-time high and these are now held by 16.3% of the population.

For physical music, the milestone release of Now That’s What I Call Music 100 was a significant boost for retailers; the centenary edition of the classic compilation series sold almost twice as many copies as its predecessor Now 99.

HMV experienced market share growth for the second consecutive period, increasing to 28% and overtaking Amazon to become the largest physical music retailer.  HMV was boosted by sales of the Mamma Mia 2 soundtrack and will be hoping the film’s multimedia offer will provide a continued uplift, as Sam Causley explains. “As was the case with the release of The Greatest Showman earlier this year, retailers will be hoping that the strong performance of the Mamma Mia 2 soundtrack will translate into positive sales for the film when it is released on DVD and Blu-ray.  Combined with the release of Cher’s album of Abba covers, Dancing Queen, this could mean that the Swedish pop sensations have a noticeable impact on the entertainment market in the run up to Christmas.”

Whether it’s a soft drink or a pair of socks, character can humanise a product and create an experience for shoppers which sets it apart from the competition. To do this, brands need to educate their target market and effectively create a personality for them to interact with.

There are two distinct ways brands, retailers and manufacturers can do this – giving consumers knowledge of the product, and giving them knowledge of their values.

Brand values vs product knowledge

Innocent was a trailblazer for the product knowledge method. Its quirky approach to telling shoppers about its simple ingredients has been widely copied, particularly in the organic and free-from food market, and helped it retain the position of best-selling smoothie brand for the past five years. Meanwhile, the technique of educating customers about brand values is being used by food retailers across the price spectrum.

The #LidlSurprises advertising campaign pursued an actively open approach to communicating the provenance of the retailer’s products, stimulating a response among consumers which helped bolster its image and premiumise its lines. Aldi’s use of social media to promote its products works in much the same way, in particular by dispelling antiquated ideas about discount supermarkets by comparing itself to its more traditional competitors. If brands are looking to generate both product and brand knowledge simultaneously, offering consumers an engaging backstory can be very effective.

Making a brand come alive in this way gives shoppers something to relate to, and a reference point when deciding which product to pick up off the shelf. It’s no surprise that of the top 10 most chosen FMCG brands in the UK, seven can be considered brands with a strong British heritage – for shoppers, choosing one of these brands over another can feel like returning home to an old and trusted friend.

Fast track to credibility

Backstory isn’t limited to existing brands. In crowded markets such as craft beer, new entrants are drawing on their local credentials or unusual ingredients – making consumers feel more knowledgeable about the products and fast-tracking their route to becoming a credible brand name. This is why being able to drink a pint two miles from where it was brewed is an experience for which customers are willing to pay a premium.

This does not need to be limited to premiumisation. A more proactive approach to sharing knowledge is a powerful tool in changing perceptions, such as McDonald’s use of virtual reality (VR) tours of its providers’ farms to dispel consumer myths around the quality of it ingredients.

This is an excerpt from our report "How does that make you feel?" about the power of consumer experiences. Get your copy of the report today, and watch the video in which Fiona Keenan explains how a compelling backstory can give your brand an experiential edge. 

Potential for innovation

Undoubtedly, online is no longer just an addition to the traditional retail format, but an essential channel for retailers to reach their target shoppers, and few players out there can afford to overlook this area. While e-commerce has long been the norm in the UK, it sees the highest penetration on the other side of the globe, with 7.3% of FMCG sales coming from online in Asia compared with 5.6% in Western Europe. This is largely due to the soaring rate of mobile phone usage in Asia, thanks to low cost phone packages and a lack of PC infrastructure. Indeed, by the end of 2019, the world’s most populous continent with a total population of 4.5 billion people*** is projected to have a mobile penetration of 59.9%.

With this huge potential comes great innovation – m-commerce in Asia is doing much more than just providing a platform for browsing and purchasing products on a mobile phone. Instead, consumers are able to create their own omni-channel purchase journey through ‘Social Commerce’. With apps that have instant messaging and mobile payments rolled into one place, consumers can get additional information, place orders, make payments and track their orders in real time. Social apps such as Facebook, WhatsApp and WeChat heavily dominate mobile activity in Asia, and have turned into important touchpoints enabling m-commerce to develop.

Seamless integration

WeChat, for instance, is now a vital channel for brands to market themselves in China. Luxury giants such as Burberry and Chanel have their own ‘subscription accounts’ on the platform where shoppers can see their campaigns, get product information, access shoppable links and even watch the runway. And it’s not just in fashion; mobile is woven into the fabric of life in Asia, driven by convenience and consumer demand. From grocery delivery services on the messaging app ‘Line’ in Thailand, to the incident reporting app ‘Qlue’ launched by the Jakarta government, this is driven not just by individuals and retailers but also official bodies. In the UK, evidence shows that we are lagging behind, with headlines such as ‘App for EU citizens Brexit registration won’t work on iPhones, Government admits’**** demonstrating that we’re still far from the seamless integration seen in Asia.

However, this in no way means that retailers in the UK should simply replicate apps that work well in Asia and hope they will be welcomed by local consumers. While apps like WeChat have functionality that satisfies their users’ complex needs, it is important for UK retailers to understand their shoppers and tailor the offering to their requirements. This challenges businesses not just to innovate, but to put themselves in their customers’ shoes in order to address the barriers they may be experiencing with e-commerce. If consumers are concerned about not being able to get the items immediately, next day delivery is certainly the answer. But as these benefits become more common, those retailers which excel at uncovering consumers’ needs will be able to better engage with them.

Get the basics right

It goes without saying that providing a “best in class” experience is key to appealing to shoppers, but retailers must first ensure they get the basics right and strive to keep their promises. In the case of next day delivery, though this is generally seen as a plus, it can have a doubly negative effect on the retailer’s reputation if it fails to meet expectations, and the same applies to ethics issues. If the basic offerings are up to standard, those extra miles retailers take will have more impact, and be more effective in driving shopper loyalty. An example of this is Go Jek, a Jakarta-based company specialising in transportation and logistics, which encourages users to customize their app by selecting from a wide range of available services, in order to aid the perception that the app is more than simply an off-the-shelf platform they are given to use. While this is just one way to personalise how a shopper interacts with you, with the right strategy, retailers can turn consumers’ online experience into more than just a shopping journey, and find real growth through e-commerce.

* Kantar Worldpanel, Total Fashion, 52 weeks to 26^th August 2018
** Fashion Forward: Online vs. Offline forecasted growth for 2019
*** World Population Review: Asia Population 2018
**** The Independent, retrieved 18/10/2018  

The gap between total grocery and fresh and chilled has widened further as these markets grew by 3.1% and 2.9% respectively. Volume growth for dairy improved by a wider margin, up to 2.9% from 2.1%, and remained ahead of grocery and fresh and chilled, at 1.4% and 2.1%.

Commenting on the findings Oliver Bluring, Client Executive, Kantar Worldpanel said: “Despite this improvement, most dairy sectors’ growth is slowing with only milk and eggs seeing an increase. Milk in particular helped drive extra sales in the overall dairy category with improved growth of £6.9 million in the past 12-weeks.”

Amongst the discounted retailers, Aldi saw the strongest increase in dairy with a boost of £4.1 million while Lidl also saw £2.2 million of additional sales. Both retailers also drove the increase of milk at £1.1 million and £1.3 million, Sainsbury’s was the other retailer to do well in this sector with sales of 1.2 million.

When we look at life-stages, a significant portion of growth comes from families contributing an increase of £4.6million - as well as the most affluent social groups, contributing £4 million in sales. All life stages bar pre-families though again, affluent classes, middle and older families are the biggest drivers in sales of milk. 

The significance of promoted sales continued in dairy this period, with the majority of up lift coming through the TPR and Y for £X promotional mechanisms, though non-promoted sales also saw up lift. In milk, all price mechanisms saw growth though Y for £X saw the biggest up at £3.7million.

Find out more about whether this performance can be sustained in our next update in four weeks’ time. 

Nathan Ward, Business Unit Director, MFP, explains: “Red meat has seen a strong decline in volume terms across beef, pork and most strongly, lamb. The latter has seen 2.3m fewer trips than this period last year, with only leg joints in growth. Volume sales of beef are down 4.6% as shoppers picked up 1.8m fewer kilos of roasting joints and 1.4m fewer kilos of mince.  In roasts, there’s fewer promotions - down 53% year on year - and losses are particularly pronounced among empty nesters and the retired, the key shopper groups for this category. Mince is seeing a different trend, with more promotions on shelf and shoppers making less full price purchases, down 9% overall. Families and those with older dependents are key to the decline in mince. The poor performance in beef roasts and mince has offset strong growth in steaks (up 6%) and marinades (up 26%).

Ward continues: “Chicken remains the strongest performer of the big four proteins, having been included in 1.9m more trips and bought by 73% of shoppers in the last 12 weeks. Chicken breasts and legs remain the strongest performers, with whole birds struggling - down 4% in volume terms. These aren’t seeing as strong promotional support this year, with 30% less volume sales made on promotion. Chicken breasts have seen volume growth of almost 10%, and added an extra 2.5m trips over this period. The versatility of the cut and falling prices - down 4%, or 25p per kilo – are encouraging shoppers to pick chicken breasts at the fixture. Legs are also seeing fewer promotions, but booming base sales as shoppers make 830,000 more trips to the category.”

Chilled fish remains a strong performer, with volumes growing slowly but strong value growth particularly from shellfish and smoked fish. We’ve seen 1.5m more trips compared to last year, but fewer new shoppers than we might expect, meaning existing shoppers are buying more often. Shellfish growth is particularly visible in in prawns, mussels and shrimps, but underlying all of this is rising prices –  up 9% on last year. Smoked salmon and haddock are driving the growth in smoked fish, which has seen 980,000 more trips this year, despite a rising average price in the category. Smoked salmon is resurgent, with promoted sales up 14% this year driving shoppers to buy more premium smoked salmon.

The return of natural fish is boosting the chilled fish category, with volume sales up 8% and 17% more sales on promotion this year holding down average prices. This has resulted in natural fish picking up half a million more shoppers and seeing 1.5m more trips. Salmon is once again the key driver, with volumes up 962,000 kilos (19%) and 2.3m more trips.

Turkey has started to see strong growth, albeit from a smal base – which could suggest we can expect a strong run up to Christmas for the traditional proteins, or will the mild autumn followed by a predicted deep winter affect our choices around proteins? Look out for our next update in four weeks' time.

While the opportunities for personalisation are vast the practicalities can often get in the way. Online, personalised experiences are relatively straightforward. In fact, they have become more of a default, whether that’s through saved shopping lists, Netfl ix off ering tailored recommendations of what to watch next or targeted advertising based on previous purchases. It’s much more of a challenge in the world of analogue retail. Depending on the category, bespoke elements may either be impossible (where products are prepackaged or mass produced) or come at great cost of time and money to the consumer – think of a Saville Row suit or made-to-measure furniture.

Creating a tailored experience

By giving customers a sense of control over the contents and functionality of a product, brands can benefit from the engagement stimulated by a truly personalised experience without needing to commit too many resources. Pepsi’s Drinkfinity range – flavour pods intended to be used on the go to enhance tap water – makes consumers feel they are creating their own tailored drink, giving them a more personal relationship with the product.

The iconic ‘Share a Coke with…’ campaign, which replaced the brand’s logo with popular male and female names on its cans, took this one step further and featured no real personalisation whatsoever. Consumers still reacted as though they had a chance to make a bespoke purchase, buying bottles as much to share with friends on social media as to actually drink.

Whereabouts in the customer journey an experience takes place can vary. ‘Share a Coke with...’ engaged customers at the moment of purchase, but these strategies can be just as effective at the point of consumption or further down the line. High-end brands like Apple invest in their distinctive packaging so heavily because peeling off the plastic cover and being the first to touch a virgin phone gives consumers such a rush, YouTube videos of others doing this often merit millions of views.

Considering every stage of the journey

Personalisation can come even later. Yeo Valley and Fairy Liquid, for example, encouraged shoppers to get creative with their empty packaging, demonstrating the importance and effectiveness of using experiential at each and every stage of the consumer/brand interaction.

For brands and manufacturers, this and other experiential approaches have the added advantage of engaging consumers in a way that doesn’t rely on money-saving promotions, which can often leave consumers feeling confused or misled. An opportunity to move away from promotions is a welcome reprieve for consumers and a way brands can add value to a commoditised market. However, the challenge which remains is how to fi nd a way of making each product individual while still maintaining production values and brand consistency

Keep it simple

A word of warning is also required. Overreliance on personalisation or leaving too much to the discretion of the consumer can lead to shoppers feeling confused and overburdened. Waitrose’s ‘Pick Your Own Offers’ initiative gave its customers a choice of products to buy at a discount, but with the onus on the shopper to make the decision it proved counterproductive. As with many aspects of experiential, it’s all about having an idea which is strong and simple. This will drive true engagement.

This is an excerpt from our report "How does that make you feel?" about the power of consumer experiences. Get your copy of the report today, and watch the video in which James Brown explains how personalisation can give your brand an edge at all stages of the customer journey. 

The Irish Brand Footprint 2018 ranking reveals how consumers are buying FMCG brands, as well as highlighting the opportunities that remain for brands to find new shoppers.

The ranking shows that of the top five brands in Ireland, four are Irish, showing the strong connection shoppers have with local brands. 

Many brands performing well in the ranking also appeal in some way to the Irish shopper’s desire to live their lives more healthily. For the top brand Brennans, the development of healthy ranges has contributed significantly to their success.

Besides health, we are also seeing more products being chosen for their indulgent qualities that help make consumers’ lives ‘happier’. The categories and brands fitting in to that sensibility among consumers, and proving they have “value for calories” are the ones generating growth.

Read the full report to find out which brands Irish shoppers are choosing to buy, and why.

Fraser McKevitt, head of retail and consumer insight at Kantar Worldpanel, comments: “Consumer spending often slows in early autumn, after the excesses of summer barbeques and before the festive season kicks off.  The arrival of colder weather and darker evenings has inspired consumers to embrace hearty comfort foods and stock up on Sunday roast staples; shoppers spent £51 million on whole chickens, £62 million on roasting joints and £4 million on Yorkshire puddings in September alone.

“Christmas will be here before we know it and some families seem to be getting into the spirit already – 8% of households bought mince pies last month, spending a total of £4 million with 70 days still to go before the big day.”

In the 12 weeks to 7 October Aldi increased sales by 15.1%.  This is the fastest rate of growth since January 2018, supported by its fresh and chilled aisles, with sales of dairy products up 24% and fresh poultry up 29% compared with last year.  Some 6% of Aldi’s sales came from premium own-label lines including its Specially Selected range – a higher proportion than any other supermarket – and its growing number of stores helped it increase its market share by 0.8 percentage points to 7.6%.

Lidl attracted 5% more shoppers through its doors compared with the same period last year and persuaded visitors to spend an extra 55 pence per trip – a greater increase than any of its rivals – helping the store achieve sales growth of 10.0% and a market share of 5.6%.

With sales up 7.0%, Co-op was the only other bricks and mortar retailer to gain market share.  Fraser McKevitt comments: “An additional 265,000 households visited Co-op over the past 12 weeks.  They were particularly drawn to its own-label lines, buying 10% more of these ranges than this time last year which accounted for more than half of Co-op’s total sales.”

Over the past 12 weeks sales at Tesco were up 0.9% while its market share fell by 0.6 percentage points to 27.4%.   Fraser McKevitt explains: “Despite widespread interest in the September launch of its discounter concept, Jack’s, the small number of stores planned means it won’t impact on Tesco’s market share without a significant expansion.  Within the main supermarket ‘Exclusively at Tesco’ lines continue to be a real bright spot, with 41% of British shoppers buying one of these products during the last 12 weeks, spending a combined £102 million.”

Both Yorkshire-based retailers, Asda and Morrisons, grew sales by 2.4% over the past 12 weeks.  Asda continued to focus on its own-label lines and overall sales increased both online and in store.  In contrast, Morrisons generated growth by selling more branded items, while cutting back on promotions faster than any other retailer.  Despite this, Morrisons still promotes more than any other supermarket, with 45% of sales made on some kind of deal.  Sainsbury’s grew by 0.6%, achieving a market share of 15.4%, down 0.4 percentage points compared to last year.

Growing ahead of the market, Ocado and Iceland sales were up by 7.5% and 4.8% respectively.  Meanwhile, Waitrose sales grew by 0.1%, with market share down by 0.1 percentage points to 5.2%.

An update on inflation

Grocery inflation now stands at +2.0%* for the 12 week period ending 7 October 2018.  Prices have been rising since the 12 weeks to 1 January 2017, following a period of grocery price deflation which ran for 30 consecutive periods from September 2014 to December 2016.  Prices are rising fastest in markets such as cola, butter and sparkling wine.

Giulia Barresi, analyst at Kantar Worldpanel, comments: “One in five of us bought an artist album over the past year, either physically or via a digital download.  There’s clearly still a demand for music presented as the artist intended us to hear it, which is why the album market is worth nearly £400 million annually.  Added to this, almost three-quarters of all albums are bought for personal enjoyment rather than as a gift, indicating that albums continue to hold a soft spot in the nation’s heart.”

Despite the growth of the online market, music enthusiasts still prefer to buy physical albums such as CDs and vinyl in person.  Giulia Barresi continues: “Buying albums in store is consumers’ favourite way to shop.  More than half of shoppers choose to hit the high street for their music fix because they like the in-store experience of it – browsing the aisles, physically flicking through the albums and talking to staff.”   

“Though it’s a challenging market for bricks and mortar entertainment retailers at the moment, there is still room for growth.  High street album sales already account for £168 million a year.  If retailers offered a greater choice of products that give an enhanced listening experience – be that deluxe editions, limited edition vinyl or even tying up with hardware manufacturers – it could help tempt shoppers to increase their spend on this much-loved format.”

A spokesperson for National Album Day said: ““National Album Day celebrates the UK’s love of the album and enduring appeal of the format to artists and fans alike.  Seventy years on, the album remains the fundamental way that musicians seek to give expression to their creativity and to the story they wish to tell, while fans the world over still look to the LP as the most engaging way to discover and enjoy new and classic music.”

A new age of digital marketing 

Influencers, and even micro-influencers, have engaged audiences who trust them and who seek their opinion on all things beauty and fashion.  They have flipped the lid on one-sided advertising and interact directly with consumers. And their influence is growing, with Western Europe seeing a 17% year-on-year increase in people claiming to look to social media for personal care recommendations.

Surprisingly, men are almost just as likely as females to be looking online for personal care advice.  However, while men want guidance on what shaving and oral care to use, women are more concerned with hair and make-up endorsements.

Brazilians are particularly invested, with 72% saying they take to social media for personal care recommendations, while Brits are bottom of the list with only 25% seeking advice. Brits are also the most sceptical about product claims, and this may translate to their trust in what influencers tell them about products. 

Highly-engaged audiences

Those who look to social media for personal care recommendations are more engaged than average consumers across all categories:

So it would seem that not only do these influencers have access to large numbers of people, but they have access to the right type of people – the super-involved! These “super-involved” consumers who consult their favourite vlogger or Instagram star for recommendations are typically younger. They are more likely to buy in to the wider category, for example, German women who get make-up recommendations are 10% more likely to be using make up brushes as well.  They are more engaged in their product use and claim to be looking for quality, natural ingredients, specific features, and fragrance benefits.  But, despite their high demands from their products, price and promotions are still a key driver for them.

The millennial audience
 
In the wider market context of millennials simplifying their routines, the social media influence seems to have piqued their interest and be the route to an engaged market of super-users.  What else is key to this group? How can you maximise targeting and drive their weekly use of personal care?

Manufacturers in Scotland have dealt with a level of uncertainty during 2018 that will be remembered as challenging. The cloud of Brexit, new legislation around alcohol and sugar, an increasingly unhealthy population, commodity price increases, and a changing retail structure have not made business easy.

While Scottish consumers have always been more loyal to brands than the rest of the UK, things are changing. Branded sales are worth £5.4 billion in Scotland, just outselling own label lines. Brands grew by 2.3% in value, and added an extra £123m to Scotland’s grocery baskets over the last 12 months. However, own label is growing faster, highlighting the need for brands to continue to offer quality and true value.

Download your copy today to find out which brands Scottish shoppers are choosing to buy, and why.

The gap between dairy and the overall grocery and fresh and chilled markets widened as these saw only slight improvement (up 3.8% and 3.2% respectively). In terms of volume growth, Dairy experienced a slight uplift from 1.5% to 2.1% even as grocery and fresh and chilled saw reduced volume growth, down to 1.3% and 1.6% respectively.

A number of dairy categories have contributed to this improvement. Yoghurt, in particular, grew by £5.2 million, an uplift on last period's growth. Milk also saw an additional £4.2 million in spend, and butter £4.1 million.

Amongst the retailers, Tesco saw the biggest increase in dairy, as it moved from marginal decline into growth, with an overall swing of over £7 million versus the previous 12 weeks. Proportionally speaking, Iceland had the biggest step change of £1.3 million. Iceland was also the most improved retailer in the growing yoghurt sector, with sales accounting for £500,000 of their overall £1.3 million growth, while Asda also saw £2.2 million in additional sales.

Commenting on the findings Oliver Bluring, Client Executive, Kantar Worldpanel said:

“A significant proportion of the growth in yoghurt has come from shoppers in the older life stages -   older dependents, empty nesters and the retired - with these groups contributing a combined £4.5 million in sales. These groups also drive the growth in the wider dairy market, although it is more evenly distributed across demographics”.

Continuing a recent trend seen over the past few periods, the majority of the uplift in the dairy market came through sales made on the Y for £X promotional mechanism, which saw £13.6 million growth. This is counter to the picture in yoghurt however, where growth is driven by non-promoted sales.

Find out more about whether this strong performance can be sustained in our next update in four weeks’ time. 

During what has been widely touted as one of the hottest summers on record, there was a surge in spending in the grocery market overall, and the long hot summer may also have had an effect on the meat, fish and poultry markets (MFP).

Spend in the category looks to have been driven by quick and convenient foods, consumed at barbeques and picnics, with burgers, sausages and sliced cooked meats all seeing strong growth. Burgers saw another boost from National Burger Day (on 23 August) with the surrounding press and promotion.

Although we’ve seen good performances from barbeque staples, red meat has fallen into decline across beef, pork and most strongly, lamb; which lost 857,000 shoppers year-on-year with 3.2 million fewer trips. Nathan Ward, Business Unit Director for MFP, explains: “Difficulties with supply both at home and abroad have contributed to rising prices which are up 48p per kilo - a 6% increase. The only cut in value growth for lamb is in leg joints, driven by prices.  The volume of sales on promotion in lamb is down 46%, now accounting for 11% of all sales, compared to 25% of all sales in primary meat and poultry. Empty nesters and the retired are the core shoppers for lamb but contribute the most to the losses.”

Ward continues: “Beef is seeing a strong decline (-6.5%) but has retained its buyer base, despite being picked up on 2.7 million fewer trips. Roasts (-28%) and mince (-7%) are driving the volume decline, as both attract fewer shoppers. Promotions are an important driver of the decline in roasts with sales on promotion by volume decreasing by 74% - but mince is seeing a different result with promotions up slightly. Non promoted sales are key to this dynamic, as are shoppers eschewing heartier meals as we see an extended summer into Autumn. Steak remains a positive driver of growth (+10%), supported by 37% more volume sales on promotion.

Chilled fish is up, buoyed by shellfish and smoked salmon, with 1.2 million more baskets containing fish and 180,000 more shoppers buying it year on year. The proteins driving growth are salmon, pollock and prawns, however, tuna, sea bass and sea bream are seeing slight increases. Smoked salmon has seen a 25% rise in volume, appearing in 2 million more baskets and attracting 390,000 more shoppers. Growth for chilled fish is coming from both ends of the affluence spectrum as the impact of price inflation lessens.

With a mild Autumn followed by a cold Winter on the horizon, how will this affect the foods we eat? Will we continue to reduce our red meat consumption, or move towards comfort food as we draw closer to winter? Find out in our next meat, fish and poultry update. 

Fraser McKevitt, head of retail and consumer insight at Kantar Worldpanel, commented: “The warm summer has been kind to the supermarkets’ convenience format stores as consumers shopped locally for drinks and barbecue supplies, collectively growing sales by 7.6% compared to last year.  Co-op was a particular beneficiary and increased sales by 8.5%, its fastest rate since 2011.  Tesco Express also benefited from shoppers staying close to home and performed especially well, contributing to total sales for Tesco rising 1.9%.

“As speculation mounts over the launch of Tesco’s discount retailer Jack’s, it’s worth remembering how quickly rivals Aldi and Lidl have grown their market share.  In the five years to September 2013 their combined market share increased by 2.4 percentage points to 6.8%.  This growth then accelerated and in the subsequent five years the two nearly doubled their share to its current level of 13.1%.  

“While it is not yet known which lines Jack’s stores will carry, Tesco’s ‘Exclusively at’ brands such as Eastman’s and Creamfields are proving popular with shoppers.  The own-label product lines launched earlier this year and accounted for £90 million of sales over the past 12 weeks – finding their way into 16% of Tesco shopping baskets.”

In the overall market, promotional sales fell and accounted for 32.4% of total grocery sales – the lowest level since June 2009.  Fraser McKevitt explains: “Retailers are looking to offer consistently lower prices on everyday items rather than one-off deals and they have all reduced promotions as a result. 

“That being said, consumers may not feel like they have more money in their pockets – grocery inflation has now reached 2.0%, adding £1.64 to each household’s weekly shopping bill.  At the current rate, these price increases add up to an extra £85 per home annually.”

Aldi was the UK’s fastest growing supermarket in the latest period – sales rose 13.9% with nearly half of this growth coming from the fresh and chilled aisles.  Its discount rival Lidl also outpaced the market up 8.3%.  Both retailers increased sales of branded products at a much faster rate than overall market growth, though these household brand names still only account for 8% of Aldi’s and 13% of Lidl’s sales. 

Meanwhile Asda’s recovery continues – sales rose 3.1% as the Leeds-based retailer attracted an additional 211,000 shoppers over the past 12 weeks.  Fraser McKevitt continues: “Asda rolled back prices on branded lines and at the same time sales of its core own-label ranges rose 8.4%.  The recently rebranded Waitrose & Partners saw sales rise by 0.8%, up against some challenging comparisons from last year when the retailer had a higher level of price promotional activity.  The supermarket’s unbroken run of growth stretches back to February 2009 and market share now stands at 5.1%, down 0.2 percentage points on last year.”

Morrisons released positive interim results last week and has increased sales by 3.0% with its premium ‘The Best’ range a particular bright spot, growing four times faster than this overall rate.  Sales at Sainsbury’s rose at their fastest rate since December, while its share of the market fell by 0.4 percentage points to 15.4%.  

At Iceland, sales were up by 6.0% supported by its ‘7 Day Deals’ – its core frozen lines did grow, but it was ambient and chilled products which were the best performing for the retailer. Online specialist Ocado increased sales by 7.9%, for a 1.2% share of the grocery market.

An update on inflation

Grocery inflation now stands at +2.0%* for the 12 week period ending 9 September 2018. Prices have been rising since the 12 weeks to 1 January 2017, following a period of grocery price deflation which ran for 30 consecutive periods from September 2014 to December 2016. Prices are rising fastest in markets such as butter, cola and canned fish.

If you want to be celebrated for who you are, and for the unique point of view and personality you can bring to our business, this is the place for you.

Within the Kantar Worldpanel family we want people to contribute to our fun and hardworking culture. This involves working within our 400-person strong commercial team, helping to deliver the very best service to our clients. Our people all have a role to play in our business growth, and at Kantar Worldpanel you can flourish as you grow your career within a highly successful company which is full of opportunities.

We are looking for graduates to join our business in 2019 and beyond.  Please browse our website and check out the job description to see if this is the place for you!

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Whether you are first time employee, or have already climbed your way up the career ladder, Kantar Worldpanel has a range of opportunities to help develop our employee’s skills and expertise.  

Commenting on the achievement, Abigail Macdonald, HR director at Kantar Worldpanel UK and Ireland, said, “To support our growing business we’ve had 140 new employees join our team including 41 graduates joining us in September. It’s great to receive the external recognition that we provide excellent opportunities for people to develop and grow their careers with us.”

Recently voted in the top 30 places to work by Great Places to Work, our ethos as a company is very simply to give our people the support and development they need to do their role. We listen to what they say, treat people fairly and provide staff with benefits such has having their birthday off, and celebrate our collective achievements. Employees can submit reviews about their company on Glassdoor and are asked to rate various factors about their employment experience and other workplace attributes.

To find out more how you can be part of the Kantar Worldpanel team, head to our careers page for more information and to view the latest vacancies. 

Packed with expert views, the report features brand new Worldpanel Plus insight and six practical ways to create stronger connections with consumers through experiences.

Commenting on the launch, Fraser McKevitt, head of retail and consumer insight, said: “While the term “experiential” marketing is not new to many of us, for brands which deal very much in products, the move towards experiences might seem daunting or even a threat. Our new paper is a handy guide for those looking to bring a genuinely impactful experiential element to their brand.”

As well as insight and expert views from Kantar Worldpanel across fashion, entertainment, FMCG, out of home and alcohol, the report features opinions from Kantar Consulting and Kantar TNS experts to give the full picture.

• Read the report today
• Watch the videos for expert views and examples of how to apply experiential principles in a range of sectors
• Uncover the latest Worldpanel Plus insight about experiences

In terms of volume growth, dairy remained at 1.5% however, grocery, fresh and chilled slowed again down to 2.3% and 3.4% from 2.6% and 3.6% respectively.

Although the overall dairy market was relatively flat compared to last period, when we look at the 12 weeks to August versus to July, yoghurts, yoghurts drinks and juices were the big winners, with additional sales of £3.8 million and £1.1 million respectively.

Of this combined £4.9 million increase for yoghurt drinks and juices, Morrisons accounted for £2.2 million, making it the retailer that has benefitted by far the most. This boosted the retailer’s overall dairy sales (up 2.1 million over the same period), though this was dwarfed by Sainsbury's (up £2.8 million) and particularly Aldi (£4.2million).

Commenting on the findings Oliver Bluring, Client Executive, Kantar Worldpanel said: “The increased awareness of the health benefits of yoghurts is a key driver of the effect we’re seeing. When we look at shopper demographics, all social classes contributed to the drive in sales of yoghurt and yoghurt drinks, however, empty nesters purchased more frequently, spending £2.4 million, followed by young and middle families. Whilst in the context of the wider dairy market the more affluent groups see decline of £3.8 million with lower social classes balancing this out.”

The uplift seen in yoghurt and yoghurt drinks has come through all price mechanisms, but  particularly through sales on promotion -  up £3.6 million. In the overall dairy market, promoted lines see additional sales of £4.4 million, holding up the similar level of decline seen in non-promoted lines.

Find out if the dairy market can continue this run of sustained growth in our next update in 4 weeks’ time.

While at the total market level, brands have been the success story of the summer, the private label dominated MFP markets are also seeing strong growth.  We know that shoppers have been willing to spend a little more to enjoy the summer sunshine, and premium products are in growth both in the MFP markets, and in grocery overall.

The excellent summer weather has had a huge impact on the market and we continue to see  strong growth for burgers and grills despite the recent cooling temperatures. 

Nathan Ward, Business Unit Director for MFP, explains: “Burgers are still the standout market, attracting 1.1m more shoppers and seeing 3 million more trips. Our in-home consumption grows during hotter weather, but burgers are also a big market out of home with 690m burgers consumed each year.  Sausages are also seeing the benefit of barbeque season, recruiting 420,000 shoppers and featuring in 2.2m more trips. This has been driven by increased promotions, with volumes on promotion up 18% year on year, and strong growth from the older shoppers in the market.”

Ward continues: “Poultry remains the big winner overall, with both primary and processed markets showing volume growth. Primary chicken continues to grow, fuelled by strong promotional support – with volumes sold on deal up 12% year on year. Price cuts remain the largest promotional mechanic, but we’ve seen more meal deals involving chicken in stores as well. Chicken breasts (+7.2%) and legs (+4.3%) are driving the volume growth, but whole birds continue to see lower but good growth - up 2.3% in volume on last year. We’ve seen 470,000 more shoppers buying chicken breasts as volumes on promotion rise 43% year on year, helping to drive 1.1m more trips. Sales of chicken legs are growing through promotions as well - up 9.4% on last year - which is driving bigger trips from a similar sized shopper base. Processed poultry attracted 460,000 more shoppers year on year, with growth driven by under 34s.”

The other side of this coin is the poor performance seen in red meat – with primary beef, lamb and pork all seeing volume losses. Declines in shopping trips are behind this, with lamb featuring in 3.5m fewer trips and beef 1.5m.  Sales on promotion in both beef and pork are up year on year in volume terms. Lamb sees promotions fall and prices up 42p per kilo as the impact of various external factors, such as the weather and feed import costs, have caused lamb prices to inflate and put pressure on supply.

As we move into what looks like a mild Autumn, will we see a swift return to primary cuts, or will we see the processed categories continue to grow? Perhaps we will see National Burger Day in late August has driven another peak in sales. Find out in our next update in 4 weeks’ time.

Packed with expert views and examples from sectors including fashion, entertainment, FMCG, out of home and alcohol, the paper uncovers six practical ways to join the trend.

Sign up now for the webinar at 10am Tuesday 11 September, or get in touch for more information.

Fraser McKevitt, head of retail and consumer insight at Kantar Worldpanel, commented: “Consumers’ willingness to spend that little bit extra to fully enjoy the summer sunshine has helped push brands ahead of their own-label counterparts.  At Tesco and Sainsbury’s branded growth has outstripped own-label for a while and – as the two biggest retailers in the grocery market – this has contributed to the market shift.  More expensive premium own-label lines across the market are still growing strongly though – up 6.3%. 

“The grocery market experienced strong growth buoyed in particular by the recent heatwave.  Over July, thirsty Brits spent an additional £67 million on alcoholic drinks, while non-alcoholic beers were cheered on by the sun with sales up 58% compared to this time last year.  Soft drinks also increased – up 28%.  Meanwhile, Love Island not only tugged on shoppers’ heartstrings but also their purse strings as men’s skincare products jumped by 16%.”

Co-op continued to feel the summer glow, experiencing its fastest rate of growth in nearly seven years.  Fraser McKevitt explains: “The last time Co-op saw sales growth of 7.8% it was still benefiting from the acquisition of Somerfield, so its performance is particularly notable this period.  Consumers’ current preference to shop locally when the sun is shining has helped Co-op attract an additional 263,000 new shoppers through its doors.  The retailer also saw the average customer visit 22 times over the 12-week period, contributing to a market share increase of 0.3 percentage points to 6.6%.

“With growth up 2.7%, Morrisons regained its position as the fastest-growing of the big four supermarkets.  Over the past 12 weeks Morrisons cut back on promotions and also gained 231,000 new shoppers, 66% of which were more affluent ABC1 customers.”

Experiencing growth of 2.6% – the second-strongest growth of the big four – Asda’s market share dropped by 0.1 percentage points to 15.2%.  Fraser McKevitt continues: “Asda has bucked the trend when it comes to brands versus own labels.  Its private lines grew ahead of brands – both its standard-tier range and premium ‘Extra Special’ range experienced a sales increase of 8%.  Over the past 12 weeks two-thirds of Asda’s growth came from family households.”

Tesco saw strong growth from its Express convenience stores and increased total sales by 1.8%, though the retailer’s market share dropped by 0.5 percentage points to 27.4%.  Meanwhile, Sainsbury’s experienced its fastest rate of growth since January 2018, up 1.2%.  The grocer was boosted by a strong online performance and the growth of its premium ‘Taste the Difference’ range.  Sainsbury’s market share declined by 0.4 percentage points to 15.5%.

Fraser McKevitt continues: “Aldi witnessed double-digit growth of 12.6%, helping the retailer up its share of the market to 7.6% – a 0.6 percentage point increase on this time last year.  Over half of the retailer’s growth came from the fresh and chilled aisles, with meat, dairy and ready meals performing particularly well.  At Lidl, sales jumped by 8.6% to help the retailer secure a 5.5% share of the market.  The grocer’s premium own-label sales rose by nearly a third, while sales of branded products increased by 37%.”

Sales at Iceland rose by 3.8% to hold market share of 2.1%.  Over three-quarters of Iceland’s growth came from fresh and ambient food and drink and these sectors accounted for over half of the retailer’s sales.  Despite experiencing sales growth of 2.4%, Waitrose dropped market share by 0.1 percentage points to 5.0%.  E-commerce specialist Ocado achieved sales growth of 8.5% and increased market share by 0.1 percentage points to 1.2%.    

An update on inflation

Grocery inflation now stands at +1.9%* for the 12 week period ending 12 Aug 2018. Prices have been rising since the 12 weeks to 1 January 2017, following a period of grocery price deflation which ran for 30 consecutive periods from September 2014 to December 2016. Prices are rising fastest in markets such as cola, butter and canned fish.

Of course, your approach to innovation depends on your perspective on which strategy will be more fruitful, whether that be “fewer, bigger, better” launches or topping up the ever-leaky bucket with regular new news. It could be argued that the latter is more relevant in a digital, micro-targeted, content-marketing led world where cut through with consumers is harder and harder. Traditional above the line campaigns of the past are difficult in a world of two screening, ad blocking and fast forwarding through commercials, so a highly tailored approach is needed.

It’s what you do…

Is succeeding with NPD in 2018, therefore, about the ability to remain agile and come to market very quickly in response to a trend that is gaining traction or an unmet need? While we’ve long heard about turmeric being the “next big thing” (including from influencers like Deliciously Ella) prompting the launch of a Starbucks Turmeric Latte, there has been little further mainstream uptake beyond Pukka Tea’s Turmeric Gold variety as yet.

Another approach, especially in food and drink, could be to understand consumers’ needs and consumption moments and look to stretch your brand into an adjacent area where needs are not being currently met.  The classic examples of this are the launch of Belvita Breakfast Biscuits and Philadephia “stretching” into evening meal preparation with a shift in communications.

Or is it something more fundamental, given the trend towards ‘purpose-led’ marketing in order to connect with the new generation of consumers who want to make a difference in the world?*

In all likelihood, all three elements have a role to play in a successful NPD strategy. Think of the launch of John West’s more convenient ranges in 2016 (Creations, Fridge Packs and Spreadables). These now reach more than half a million shoppers, are worth £7m, and revitalised the commoditised canned fish category by adding a price premium and attracting younger shoppers. The new range tapped into existing trends of higher protein diets, and health more widely, and made traditional fish in a can more convenient with new formats.  Finally, the repositioning of the brand through their TV campaign dialled up messaging around sustainability, appealing to the new generation of purpose-led consumers.

…And it’s the way that you do it

That said, whatever approach you take, there are two sides to great NPD; the proposition, and the execution. Our analysis shows that execution can make or break a launch.

Ensuring sales teams are briefed on the impact that the new launch will have, and have the tools from marketing to sell in effectively, is more important than you might think, and we’ve seen many great products fall at the last hurdle because of internal bureaucracy.

It’s not hard to spot that many of the top NPD of the last few years are from brands with big parent companies. Despite its subsequent discontinuation, Coke Life was one of the most successful soft drinks launches in the last ten years in sales terms - simply due to the power of the brand and its influence with retail partners, meaning the launch achieved huge physical and mental availability.  Brand power and deep pockets give conglomerates a lot of leverage when it comes to negotiating joint business plans or new listings with retailers. But whether you’re a multinational, or a small local manufacturer, you can make sure your launch is properly supported internally in order to give it the best chance of success.

3 steps to success

Our analysts looked at 7,300 new launches in FMCG and examined what the most successful launches have in common. This study allowed us to identify three rules for successful execution:

• Distribution is king because penetration is king

You increase your chances of success by being distributed in the big four retailers from launch. Don’t be tempted into retailer exclusivity as you will reduce your chances of reaching £1m sales in the first year to just 0.2%

• Charge a premium  - if you can justify it

If your objective is generating as many volume sales as possible, the price premium should be no more than 35% above the category average. Following the norms of promotional strategy in your category will give you a higher likelihood of success. NPD which has very real differentiation and tangible additional benefits other products can’t provide can be successful in commanding a higher price and encourage shoppers to trade up, but it needs to be game-changing, not evolutionary (like Lenor Unstoppables in laundry).

• More (SKUs) is more

Having multiple SKUs at launch also increases your chances of success, although practically is difficult to attain. Make sure you have a clear sell in plan that shows the different benefits of the products you are launching, the investment your business is putting behind them in terms of ad or trade spend and how you are adding value as a supplier above and beyond commercial terms.

Are you on top of what success looks like for your category? Read our ranking of the top selling new brands of 2017 and get in touch for more information.

Staycations hit holiday spend

With the consistently sunny weather throughout July, there’s been less of a need for those sunseeking shoppers to get away. This is reflected our latest figures, which find holiday spend in the fashion market is down by 3.3% over the past quarter**, and has gone into year on year decline. As this previously reliable driver of growth starts to slow down, retailers need to think ahead and ensure they are well placed to capture opportunities in other growth areas in the market. 

In contrast to the slowing spend in holiday wear, the total clothing, footwear and accessories market has recovered from declines earlier in the year. In the latest quarter, spend in the market is up by 0.1%, driven by an improved performance from general daywear purchases. This is the most commonly cited reason for a fashion purchase, and accounts for 47.6% of all clothing spend. Last year this figure stood at 46.4% of all clothing sales, showing that basic fashion purchases are becoming a higher priority for shoppers. As a result, retailers need to consider the practicality of their products as this is a factor that consumers are starting to value more.     

Bricks to clicks

Unsurprisingly, online sales have been the main contributor to the sales uplift in fashion purchases for general use. Online spend increased by 10.2% over the last quarter, compared to just 0.2% in bricks-and-mortar, and there’s still plenty of headroom for the channel to expand. With the fickle weather and high street footfall continuing to pose a challenge, retailers can never be too well prepared when it comes to online product availability.

Although getting the right product mix for general daywear purchases is likely to be trickier than selections of swimsuits and beach bags, casual categories that offer comfort are favoured the most. While having a bigger range of ‘casual skirts’ does not necessarily guarantee boosted sales, those retailers able to deliver better value, higher quality, more flexible ways to purchase as well as the right products will certainly stand out from the crowd.

Despite these changing patterns of shopper behaviour, it is not the case that people are no longer seeking experiences with their fashion purchases. However, retailers should be alive to the fact that it is now more important than ever to be adaptive and know what their shoppers want. While capitalising on any fast-growing trend could lead to short-term growth, relying on a single driver without a well-rounded strategy to satisfy shoppers will not be enough to compete in today’s market.

*ONS Travel Trends:2017

**12 weeks to 1st July 2018

In this edition, we will be taking a look at the proposed merger of Asda and Sainsbury’s, the rise of niche yoghurt brands and the potential rise of the free from bay as well as a seeming contradiction in milk volume sales and consumption. 

Use the link on the right hand side of this page to download your copy today. We very much hope you enjoy reading the articles. Do get in touch with your opinions and feedback.

With the big media and consumer focus on sustainability in 2018, shoppers are becoming more environmentally conscious. A number of beauty products have been called out for being damaging to the environment including face wipes, with many surprised to discover these contain plastic.  A recent Worldpanel Plus survey of 12,000 British consumers found 44% are increasingly concerned about single use plastics and 70% planned to cut down or switch to sustainable alternatives. The result of this heightened awareness is clear - wipes are now down by 11 million occasions, with 2.5% less German shoppers, for example, using them.

With as many as 46% of the British population claiming they ‘avoid products that are harmful to the environment’ what is your brand doing to keep up with the trend?

 
Using usage care data we can further explore the relationship between category usage and the natural trend to help your brand identify and leverage important opportunities.

Notable for its particularly stellar performance over recent weeks is the humble radish. Whilst starting from a comparatively small base, this peppery, crunchy, eye-catching vegetable has recruited an extra 890,000 households in the past twelve weeks.

As often the case with fruit and vegetable choices – health is the most commonly cited reason for choosing radishes (67% of occasions), and their distinct flavour is behind almost half of all purchases. 

With Marks and Spencer developing an Instagram-ready "watermelon" variant for sale this summer - could it be that radishes topple avocados as the latest foodie must-have? There’s certainly plenty of headroom for growth – as only 22% of shoppers are currently putting them in their baskets.

Each episode will be a frank discussion with industry experts, to help brands and business leaders navigate the changing landscape of marketing… and hopefully dispel some myths and misconceptions along the way.

Listen to all the episodes wherever you get your podcasts, or find out more as they are released here: https://uk.kantar.com/podcast/

Giulia Barresi, analyst at Kantar Worldpanel, comments: “Mint game sales rose by 0.3% year on year, bolstered by the huge success of God of War.  The title was bought by more than double the number of people who purchased Mario Kart 8 – the biggest selling game this time last year – holding up a category that would otherwise have experienced declining sales of 13%.  GAME did particularly well, accounting for 40.6% of all spend on God of War in its first three months on sale, helping the retailer to gain market share on this time last year.”  

Elsewhere in gaming, the Nintendo Switch claimed 22% of spend in new generation console software.  This is an all-time high coming at the expense of rival Xbox software systems which secured 20.9% of the market this quarter.  The PS4 and PS4 Pro remain in pole position, capturing 57.1% of all new generation software sales.

Shoppers stick to plan when buying music and video

Music buyers on average spent almost £4 more at HMV than the same period last year, helping the retailer to increase its share of physical music sales by 3 percentage points to 22.8%.  Driving this growth were big new releases including Resistance Is Futile by the Manic Street Preachers, The Greatest Showman film soundtrack and Tranquillity Based Hotel + Casino by the Arctic Monkeys.  In contrast, Amazon customers spent nearly £1 less on music and added fewer titles to their basket when visiting the site, compared with last year.  

A drop in impulse buying played a large role in an overall decline in physical music sales of 5.8%.   Giulia Barresi explains: “Many retailers are reducing their floorspace and this can mean shoppers are given fewer opportunities to make spur of the moment purchases, such as at the till.  This trend is the same across physical music and video, with declining impulse purchases amounting to a fall in category sales of £7 million and £16 million respectively compared with last year.  As high street stores change their look and feel in response to pressures from their online rivals, retailers need to ensure they are maintaining and creating environments that support spontaneous purchase if they are to turn the table on falling sales.

“Despite fewer people buying video overall, HMV managed to increase its share of physical sales by 1.1% – an impressive achievement for the high street chain.  This growth could be helped by the increasing trend for staying in rather that opting for more expensive nights out, with younger HMV customers buying films for planned occasions with family and friends.”

New heights for digital

It was a positive quarter for digital video, fuelled by sales of on-demand films increasing 28.1% last year.  The Greatest Showman was the biggest release of the period with 1.6 million shoppers buying the film across physical and digital formats – including 560,000 electronic downloads, the most of any film to date.

The number of people using music streaming services continues to rise, reflected in the increase in providers entering the market.  Giulia Barresi explains: “Consumers have more choice than ever when it comes to where they stream entertainment online, which means services need to do more to attract users.  Amazon is doing this well – its offer of free music with Prime delivery has helped the platform double its number of active users since last year, surpassing Apple Music subscriber figures for the first time.

“Spotify continues to strengthen its position at the top of the leader board, with one in 10 British adults actively using the service to listen to music in the four weeks to 1 July – an all-time high, though we could begin to see new entrant YouTube Music erode part of its share next quarter.  However, with 10% of Spotify listeners now aged 55 to 64, there may still be opportunities for the platform to grow its customer base with other demographics.”

Netflix hit the headlines this quarter for falling short of its new subscriber target globally, but Great Britain remains a strong market for the streaming giant.  More than one in five Brits actively streamed from a Netflix account in the four weeks to 1 July, while 11.5% of the population used its closest rival, Amazon Prime Video.  

Dairy now sits behind both these markets in terms of volume growth, however, with dairy at 1.5% - down from 1.7% last period - while grocery and fresh and chilled see growth of 2.6% and 3.6% respectively.

As Wimbledon kicked off another quintessential British summer, cream was the category at centre court - seeing the biggest relative improvement compared with the previous 12 weeks, with an uplift of 1.24 million on last period’s growth. That said, this performance is still overshadowed by the £6.3million growth in cheese.

Commenting on the findings Oliver Bluring, Client Executive, Kantar Worldpanel said: “The retailers seeing the biggest uplift in cream for this period were Morrisons and Waitrose, which saw improvements of £390k and £330k respectively. Looking at the overall dairy market, Ocado was the strongest performer, followed by Iceland – however Morrisons and Waitrose as both saw impressive uplift in growth of £2.6 million and £3.7 million respectively off the back of their strong showing in cream.”

When we look at shopper demographics, those who purchased cream more frequently during this period were either young families or in the empty nesters life stage. Shoppers in the less affluent groups all drove an increased uplift also. 

Though brands and private label both contributed to an uplift in cream, improved growth came solely through non-promoted sales, with lines sold on temporary price reduction (TPR) or Y for £X promotional mechanisms seeing a collective downturn of almost £500k. Looking at the overall dairy market, growth comes through non-promoted lines, however the decline in Y for £X sales has significantly reduced (down by around £6.5 million), contributing to overall performance.

Find out if the dairy market can continue this run of sustained growth in our next update in 4 weeks’ time.

Our most recent Grocery Market Share update found that a sizzling summer has lit up the grocery market. Supermarkets grew sales by 3.6%, and only one sector grew at a slower rate than the market overall. Whilst the weather may have recently cooled off, the sustained hot and sunny weather drove a real boost for al fresco dining, which provided a valuable shot in the arm for the barbeque markets, as well as alcohol which saw some of the strongest summer weeks ever.

The MFP markets have benefitted strongly from the heatwave, with huge growth for burgers and grills as the nation fired up the coals.

Nathan Ward, Business Unit Director for MFP, explains: “Burgers are the standout  market this month, having had a boost from the perfect barbeque weather.  1.2m more shoppers bought them, and they featured in 4.2m more trips. It’s not just more promotions driving sales – despite strong growth in temporary price reductions (TPRs), the fastest growth is seen in non promoted sales which saw 2.6m more trips. The other  barbeque staple, the great British banger, also performing well, but growth is slower than the wider market.”

Ward continues: “We’ve recently seen chilled fish return to growth and that accelerates this month, with natural fish returning to strong sales. Shoppers made 1.5m more trips than last year, with a third  of us buying the category over the last quarter. Inflation continues have an impact – sending prices up by 2.3% -  but this pales into insignificance compared to the peaks of last year.”

Older households remain the key market for chilled fish, and these shoppers are driving category growth, picking up an additional 1 million kilos over the last year. Salmon, cod and prawns are seeing the strongest growth, helping to drive both value and volume back into the category.

Poultry remains another big winner, with both the primary and processed markets showing strong growth. Primary chicken is now key to the growth, with volumes up 6.6% as 611,000 more shoppers bought the market, taking 2.7m more trips. Barbeques again look to be playing a big role here, with volumes up across breasts (+5%), wings (+7%) and legs (+8%) with all three growing ahead of the market, while whole birds see volumes fall across summer. Promotions have been vital to the growth of chicken; average prices are falling and more TPRs and meal deals are driving volume growth. Breasts particularly saw volumes rising ahead of value with significant promotional investment, as volumes on promotion were up 76% on last year with TPRs doubling volumes over the summer.

We’ve seen a few more weeks of good weather, but a potential turn for the worst weather wise coinciding with schools breaking up for summer.  Will we still see barbeques continue to drive boozy weekends or might we see a return to more formal meals as the weather turns? Find out in our next update in 4 weeks’ time.

Health and Beauty categories are very far-reaching. Over the course of a year the average consumer buys 24 different brands across 15 different markets, but there is still plenty of headroom for growth. 

NPD in personal care generated an impressive £350m of revenue for the industry over the past year – representing 4.2% of sales over that time.

However, size alone is not the whole picture. It’s also important that any new launch generates incremental revenue for both the brand and category, rather than simply cannibalising existing ranges.

Facing the future

Face masks are one of the big skincare trends of the moment and we’ve seen many NPD launches tapping into this, resulting in the buyer base for face masks doubling to 1.4m last year.

This is a great example of NPD helping to grow brands and sustain category value. Despite an overall trend towards personal care regime simplification, face masks have found a way to add additional products into our bathroom cabinets. They are also proven to be a successful way for brands to target new shoppers; some 54% of spend on L’Oreal’s Pure Clay masks comes from under 35s, compared with just 10% of their overall skincare range.

Climbing the charts

Our ranking of the top 10 personal care innovations of 2017 lists new launches in terms of sales, and crucially, how incremental they were to the brand and category.

In value terms, Herbal Essences Bio:Renew range takes the top spot, bringing in £11.4m for manufacturer Proctor and Gamble. It’s closely followed by another haircare brand, Head and Shoulders Men Ultra (worth £6.1m).

A rounded view of performance

However, the picture changes significantly when you consider how incremental those sales were to the overall category.

While Bio:Renew was the biggest sales launch of last year, it’s the second last in in terms of incrementality, with Corsodyl Daily taking the number one spot.

Price is a key driver of the success of 6 of the 7 incremental launches, demonstrating that consumers are prepared to pay a premium for products they believe offer them something better or unique. The Corsodyl gum health toothpaste retails at 201% of the average price in its category, and still managed to bring in almost three quarters of a million shoppers in the first year of launch at this price.

Dove Baby was the most incremental to the manufacturer, having recruited an incredible 2 million buyers in the first year of launch. The brand has good distribution, with presence in all the major retailers, and a steady run of promotions to maximise its appeal to shoppers. 

Planning for success

All NPD should have the objective of being incremental – size matters but it isn’t everything.  Make sure you’re measuring how much value new ranges bring to both manufacturer and the category overall. Having a unique and benefits-lead proposition will give your shoppers a reason to pay more and minimise the risk of new ranges simply cannibalising existing ones. Ultimately, though, good presence is key.  Multiple SKUs will help to give your brand good visibility on the shelf, and in-store promotion will capture shoppers’ attention, giving your launch the best chance of success.

Download our ranking of the top 10 personal care innovations of 2017 today, and get in touch for more information about how Kantar Worldpanel can help you to maximise the impact of your NPD.

Fraser McKevitt, head of retail and consumer insight at Kantar Worldpanel, comments: “England may not have won the World Cup – but its journey to the semi-finals not only helped to kickstart the summer, but supermarket sales to boot. 

“Over the past month, football-frenzied customers visited supermarkets an extra 13 million times as they hurried to stock up on World Cup-viewing essentials, with alcohol in particular the stand-out winner.  Christmas and Easter aside, the week that the England football team played both Colombia and Sweden saw more spent on alcohol than ever before – a colossal £287 million.”

With the hot and sunny weather showing no signs of letting up, al fresco dining has continued to tempt shoppers.  Over the past month, sales of firelighters and fresh burgers rocketed by 47% and 30% as customers honed their barbecuing skills.  Meanwhile, sun care products and painkillers were both in demand: sales of sun creams jumped by 38%, while nearly a third of all households picked up pain-killing tablets over the past month. 

The warm weather has not only impacted what customers buy, but where they choose to buy their groceries from.  Fraser McKevitt continues: “Over the past 12 weeks Co-op experienced growth of 6.4% – its highest recorded since October 2011 – as shoppers’ desire to maximise the sunshine encouraged them to shop more locally.  The past month in particular saw a boost to the retailer’s popularity, with shoppers returning to Co-op stores on average a record 10.1 times.”

Asda saw sales jump 3.7% to post its strongest growth in more than five years, and it was the best performing of the big four for the first time since December 2014.  Fraser McKevitt explains: “Buoyed by a sales increase of 9% to its core, standard own-label lines – which make up 40% of its sales – Asda held market share steady at 15.1%.  The retailer also encouraged an additional 230,000 shoppers through its doors over the past 12 weeks. 

“Morrisons posted strong growth of 2.9%, with a market share of 10.5%.  Over the past 12 weeks the retailer’s premium line ‘The Best’ outperformed its cheaper own-label options, helping Morrisons to continue a run of growth stretching back to January 2017.”

Although Tesco’s convenience Express stores proved popular with shoppers, contributing to Tesco’s overall growth of 2.3%, the grocer’s market share fell back by 0.3 percentage points to 27.6%.  Meanwhile, Sainsbury’s market share declined by 0.4 percentage points to 15.6%, despite experiencing sales growth of 0.8%. 

Fraser McKevitt continues: “Boosted by its title as the official supermarket of the England football team, Lidl saw sales increase by 9.7%.  The discounter increased its market share by 0.3 percentage points to 5.4% compared to this time last year.  Meanwhile, Aldi returned to double-digit growth – with sales up by 10.9% – to reach a market-share high for the retailer of 7.5%.  Aldi and Lidl are now on the verge of hitting a combined market share of 13% for the first time, though the speculation over new entrants to the discount market could mean new pressures on the two retailers.”

Sales at Iceland rose by 4.5% as the retailer continued to grow outside its core frozen lines, with the supermarket securing 2.1% market share.  Although increasing sales by 2.8%, Waitrose dropped market share by 0.1 percentage points to 5.0%.  E-commerce specialist Ocado experienced sales growth of 8.5% and now accounts for 1.2% of the grocery market.  

The UK has a problem. In 2015, 58% of women and 68% of men were overweight or obese. Obesity prevalence has increased from 15% in 1993 to 27% in 2015. In 2015/16, one in four children started school overweight and obese; one in three children are obese in Year 6. The annual cost of obesity to the NHS has been estimated at £6.1 billion, and at more than £27 billion to the wider economy. 

After decades of increases, life expectancy in the UK is now edging downwards. It is estimated that adults can lose three years of life if moderately obese and 7-10 years if severely obese. Studies say that today’s obese children could live up to 20 years less than their healthy peers.

There is also a clear social divide when it comes to health outcomes. Women in the top 10% wealthiest areas have an average life expectancy of 86 years, and the poorest 10% only 78 years. This gap is widening. In some cities, areas with low life expectancies sit next door to wealthier areas with far better health outcomes.

Kantar Health’s National Health and Wellness survey (2017) shows clear disparities when we look at mental health, the date someone last visited a health care professional, and those who claimed they were willing to make changes to avoid having to take medication. Men are more likely to be overweight/obese, have diabetes, smoke and drink alcohol; women, in contrast, are more likely to suffer depression and anxiety and seek help. Obesity and diabetes are more prevalent among those in the lower income levels and among the elderly. The picture is complex: the proportion who drink alcohol in general is higher among those in the higher income groups; smoking is more prevalent amongst younger people than older generations.  

Health & consumer choices

When it comes to healthy choices, there are some encouraging signs: consumers are telling us that health is increasingly important to them. One in three home consumption choices are driven by health, up from about one in 10 in the 1990s, and this category is now valued at £23 billion. When questioned, most people will say they are interested in their health and diet, with three quarters saying they are trying to lead a healthy lifestyle. But desires relating to health and nutrition don’t always translate into action.

We know there is high awareness of the ‘Five A Day’ campaign, but the average person manages just three portions daily of fruit and vegetables. There are also big variations. Older women on higher incomes living in the south are most likely to reach the target five portions, while men aged 16-24 years only achieve 2.4 per day on average.

Health is a complex subject and means different things to different people. Consumers making choices on the basis of ‘health’ generally claim that the key elements of that choice are ‘health benefits’, getting a portion of fruit and veg, and foods being less ‘processed’. Only about 15% of choices made for health reasons relate to products that are lower in sugar, fat, salt, and calories. So it’s more about what is in products, rather than what is taken out. This can be seen in the increasing demand for higher protein yogurts, cereals, and drinks. Although the number of people saying they are vegetarians hasn’t increased, we are certainly seeing a rise in the number of evening meals that are meat-free, another important health trend.

There is more positive news when we look at the actual nutritional composition of UK shopping baskets. Average calorie and sugar content has been decreasing, and protein and fibre content has been increasing, over the last 5 years. Several factors are behind the decline in sugar consumption: a drop in the purchase of table sugar, a reduction in the sugar content of soft drinks, and the slowdown in some categories with higher sugar, because of consumer concerns about sugar. This is good news for health outcomes, but there is still a long way to go to reach the recommended dietary goals.

Again, there are clear differences in the nutritional quality of take home shopping baskets by income group. Households earning less than £30k a year tend to buy products with higher sugar, saturates and sodium, and with lower protein and fibre, than higher income households.

Health gaps & government policy

The health gap, then, is also an income gap. Higher income households seek out and are prepared to pay more for healthy options, while lower income households have poorer nutrition and, therefore, worse outcomes.

This is one of the reasons why government policy in this area is intensifying. The Soft Drinks Industry Levy, introduced in April 2018, encouraged the industry to reformulate many products (to below 5gm/100ml) before the Levy actually came into force, and to increase marketing support for lower sugar options. Taken together with the longer term movement towards water and ‘diet products’, the result has been a significant drop in the amount of sugar the UK is consuming from soft drinks over the last few years. Only one third of current take-home soft drink volume was liable for the Levy in April 2018, down from over 40% in 2014.

Government initiatives are going beyond sugary drinks. In the UK, the aim is to reduce children’s sugar consumption by 20% by 2020, and the calorie reduction programme has just been announced, with calorie reduction targets for a set of categories.

These initiatives will affect all households buying these categories but should impact lower income families more, as the focus categories account for a higher share of their total expenditure on food and drink.

So there are clearly opportunities for manufacturers and retailers in health and nutrition. It is a growing consumer trend, with evidence that consumers will pay more for healthier products. But it is important to understand what benefits your consumers are looking for. There is also a clear need for a general improvement in the health of the population overall, and vital for the wellbeing of certain demographic groups, so we should expect more government action to influence or regulate how markets behave. The challenge for the food industry, and the opportunity, is to find ways to comply with new guidelines and regulations, while producing products consumers want to buy.

We hope you enjoy reading the articles and look forward to hearing your opinions and feedback.

The sector driving the decline is butter, accounting for £10.5 million of the £18.25 million less spent on dairy year on year. Behind this was milk, with growth down by £4.4 million, and margarine at £2.1 million.

Commenting on the findings, Oliver Bluring, Client Executive, Kantar Worldpanel, said: “The retailer which has seen the steepest decline in butter is Tesco, having gone from £4.1 million growth in the previous 12 weeks to losses of £1.6million. The Co-Op saw the next biggest drop off, losing out on £1 million of spend. This is echoed when you look at the performance of these retailers in dairy overall, where Tesco sees a fall of nearly £15 million and the Co-Op £3.3 million. Additionally, Ocado saw an easing of £1 million, a proportionally greater amount to the smaller online retailer”.

This slowdown in dairy comes through all life stages, though retired shoppers drive a considerable amount of the losses. When we look at social demographic groups, shoppers in lower-middle class and non-working families especially drive decline.

The fall back in butter sales have come through a mixture of both non-promoted lines and those being sold through the Y for £X mechanism. As temporary price reduction sales remain in marginal growth. When you look at the overall dairy market, the decline comes through all promotional mechanisms, though Y for £X more so than the others. 

Matt Botham, strategic insight director at Kantar Worldpanel, comments, “We’re looking at an extra 1.4 million trips to the shops on Friday and Saturday.  Retailers need to make sure they’re prepared for the extra footfall on a stock and staffing level – long queues and empty shelves just before kick-off are unlikely to go down well with shoppers.”

“Alcohol will be the big winner – we’d expect sales to go up by a whopping 25%.  This would bring in an extra £26 million to the market in two days alone, and over 30% of the extra shopping trips made would include alcohol in some format.”

With Wimbledon overlapping with the World Cup and a number of British tennis hopefuls still in play, the alcohol sales increase is also likely to include more Pimm’s and sparkling wine than the World Cup alone would generate.  However, while the impact of the World Cup will be felt up and down the country, London shoppers account for the majority of incremental sales caused by Wimbledon. 

Despite public support for the Three Lions from the opening of the competition, Kantar Worldpanel data also reveals that when it comes to dressing the part, the nation only puts their money where their mouth is once their team starts to perform well.  Consumers tend to wait for a win before they start buying England football shirts to ensure their purchase is a good investment – sales hit a high of £8 million when England was knocked out of the South African World Cup in the last 16 in 2010 but fell to only £2.5m in 2014, when the team failed to make it out of the group stage in Brazil.  With a quarter final performance this weekend sales of England shirts are likely to hit record highs – though could drop off a cliff if the team fails to make it to next Wednesday’s semis. 

Overall, we can see that the recent warm weather is helping grocers, if not our gardens, and the supermarkets are in sustained growth. Last period, we saw the May heatwave driving sales and this has continued into early June, with the nation spending over half a billion more on groceries this period compared with last year. The MFP markets have definitely benefitted from this great weather, and we’ve seen growth in sales of burgers and grills as the nation goes barbeque crazy!

Nathan Ward, Business Unit Director for MFP, explains: “We’ve seen a great performance across lots of areas, but burgers stand out. Growing 16% on last year, burgers have attracted just over 1m more shoppers than last year and featured in 2.9m more trips. Demand is high, with full price sales driving growth, alongside a strong boost from increased sales of BBQ ranges on multi-buy promotions. Burgers are in growth across all life stages, particularly with young families and post-family shoppers, potentially highlighting the biggest barbeque fans. Sausages aren’t seeing the same levels of growth, but  the humble banger is still seeing 1.5m more trips year on year, as the category benefits from the barbeque boom.”

Ward continues: “The big news last month was that chilled fish had returned to growth, and this positive story continues this period. We’ve seen a return to value and volume growth in the category, as lower levels of inflation have helped to attract shoppers back. Chilled fish featured in 1.4m more shopping baskets than this time last year, with basket sizes up 1.4%. These two elements are key to the volume growth seen in the category. Natural fish is a big driver of the volume growth, with 280,000 additional kilos sold as 310,000 more shoppers picked it up. Salmon is key to this performance, growing volume at 3.9% and adding 1.4m more trips to the category. Shellfish are also seeing strong growth, as shoppers pick up more prawns – perhaps another example of summer eating habits impacting the market.”

Primary and processed poultry were the other big winners in MFP, with volume sales growing faster than the overall market, and more shoppers buying it year on year. Primary chicken was key to the volume growth in primary MFP, with the major red meats all seeing volumes decline. Shoppers made 3.2m more trips which included chicken, and volume growth for legs (+8%), breasts (+8%) and whole birds (+5%) helped it to rule the roost. Chicken breasts continue to see strong promotional support, with sales on deal up 66% on last year and price cuts and multi-buys driving significant growth through 1.5m more trips. Whole birds are an unexpected winner over the period, with 1.4m more trips driving sales, and only slightly more promotional support than usual.  Processed poultry also sees more shoppers entering the category, with promotions up 8% on last year. Shoppers under 45 are driving the growth here, but older shoppers remain the largest group for processed poultry.

With England moving further into the knockout rounds and facing Sweden on Saturday, it’s likely shoppers will make it a big weekend, entertaining or having a barbeque in the continuing heatwave! This should make for another great set of results in one month’s time when we deliver the next market update.

Rachel, who presented alongside Alice Swift (Senior Agricultural Manager, Arla Foods) focused on the value of dairy within consumers' shopping baskets, and how it is still a vital part of the UK’s diet, due to its consistent presence in some of our favourite dishes.

Rachel commented: “Understanding changing consumer behaviour and how this affects the dairy industry is key to capitalising on new trends and opportunities. In particular, understanding the millennial generation -  what motivates them and what makes them a complex generation to target is vital for brands to succeed in this shifting landscape.” 

While overall shopper numbers have increased by 228,000 in the 52 weeks ending 3 June, the fashion market declined by 0.4% over the same time – the eighth consecutive period of flat or negative growth.  The last time the British fashion market experienced more than one month of growth in a row was two years ago, in June 2016. 

Glen Tooke, consumer insight director at Kantar Worldpanel, explains: “Despite the current challenges, customers are starting to return to the fashion market.  However, shopping frequency is down by one trip per year, which makes a significant difference across the whole population.  Turning this around will be the next big test for retailers.  Unless things change, our current market projection suggests a 1% decline in the market this time next year, which equals around £350 million.”

Two thirds of clothing, footwear and accessories sold in the past year were at full price, though the value of these sales fell by £443 million.  Discounted clothing grew by £303 million in the same period though both full price and discount items saw declines in the number of units sold – down by one million and 31 million respectively, showing that discounting is not increasing the amount that shoppers buy. 

Glen Tooke continues: “For too long, shoppers have been trained to wait until the sales start, meaning that the heavy discounting favoured by many high street retailers still isn’t having the desired effect in terms of driving spend or footfall. 

“Struggling retailers should not always turn to discounting as the first option.  The days of ‘put it in the store and they will buy it’ are long gone.  Shoppers today are buying in the moment and retailers have to be much more flexible and fleet of foot to accommodate this.  The current hot weather is a perfect example.  The moment is now and when the sun disappears next week it will have passed, and those are sales that the retailers can never get back.

“Most consumers simply want good products and good prices, and they place a far lower value on attributes like celebrity endorsement or brand image.  In our time-poor culture, retailers can’t be seen to be wasting customers’ time with slow deliveries, queues in store or poor stock availability.  Shoppers change half of their store repertoire year on year so it’s the retailers who get the basics right and deliver a slick service and great experiences for customers who will inevitably do best.”

Fraser McKevitt, head of retail and consumer insight at Kantar Worldpanel, comments: “After a couple of difficult years for the supermarkets this sustained period of growth is welcome news.  The latest figures largely pre-date the soaring temperatures and new-found optimism for England’s World Cup chances but with the nation spending over half a billion more in supermarkets this period compared with last year, it suggests that summer has already arrived for many. 

“Shoppers have already splashed out 6% more on spirits, and gin sales alone have increased by £38 million and 1.7 million litres, while soft drinks are up 7%.  Consumers are also feeling some seasonal downsides – sales of hay fever remedies are up by 19% year-on-year and have been bought by 5.7 million households, reflecting Met Office predictions of record pollen levels.”

Among the big four supermarkets, Morrisons was again the fastest growing, posting a sales increase of 1.9% – narrowly behind the overall market.  Fraser McKevitt continues: “Consumers have responded very well to Morrisons’ wonky fruit and vegetable lines – these have more than tripled in sales and now feature in 12% of baskets, helping the retailer’s cheapest tier of own label products grow by a remarkable 18%.  The retailer was also helped by double digit growth in online sales, though its overall share fell by 0.1 percentage points to 10.6%. 

“Potential partners Asda and Sainsbury’s have recorded quite different performances over the past 12 weeks.  More than a quarter of a million new customers have helped Asda increase sales by 1.8% – its 16-period run of growth is the longest the retailer has achieved since March 2014.  In contrast, Sainsbury’s sales fell by 0.2%.  The grocer sold an extra £60 million of goods on promotion this year and while this helped attract 159,000 new customers - and the retailer simultaneously delivered a strong online performance - Sainsbury’s overall share fell by 0.4 percentage points to 15.6%.”

Sales grew by 1.4% at Tesco with the strongest performance in its Express convenience stores, though overall the retailer’s market share decreased to 27.7% from 27.9% a year ago.  Meanwhile, Co-op recorded its strongest growth in over a year as sales grew by 2.4%, and its market share grew by 0.1 percentage points to 6.2%.  Iceland has held its share in the market, of 2.2%, as sales grew by 2.5%. 

While overseas deals have buoyed Ocado’s share price, the UK delivery business has also nudged up its grocery market share by 0.1 percentage points – its sales growth of 10.1% makes it the fastest growing UK supermarket. 

Commenting on the discounters, Fraser McKevitt says, “Lidl’s 10.0% sales growth makes it the only bricks and mortar retailer to experience double digital growth, and as a major sponsor of England’s World Cup squad it will be hoping to see the team’s success so far translate into even higher growth in July.  Its growing range of branded goods will play a role here – they’re already up 33% in sales and should help attract an increasingly diverse range of customers through the door.  Yet while Lidl is the champion in terms of growth this period, it is Aldi that has edged up to a new record high market share – it now stands at 7.4% thanks to sales growth of 8.2%.”

Waitrose sales have risen by only 0.1%, however this does mean the John Lewis-owned retailer has grown continually since March 2009 – an unbroken run of success that is only bettered in length by Aldi and Lidl.

Shaving is among the most affected categories, with many individuals picking up the razor more frequently in the summer months. In Great Britain alone, an extra 4% of women start shaving during the summer, which translates to 4.5 million more occasions compared with winter months. The challenge from brands and manufactures is to take advantage of this opportunity whilst also winter-proofing your brand.  

Men are also more likely to groom themselves for summer - especially in Great Britain, Spain and Italy. In Great Britain, a quarter of men say that they have shaved their body in the past 6 months and this number is consistently higher during the summer. These men are much more likely to cite ‘societal expectations’ as their motivation for hair removal. As well as seasonality, changing attitudes in all countries continue to influence market behaviour!

While summer encourages more shaving, some other categories are dependent on winter. For example, bath products, body moisturisers, fragrance and cosmetics are among the categories that Western European women are more likely to explore in the winter.

Get in touch to find out how our Usage Care service can help to explore the relationship between category usage and seasonality, to identify and leverage important opportunities.

Our UK-specific Brand Footprint 2018 report uncovers the twenty most chosen British dairy brands. Packed with insights on key themes and market trends, the report also contains case studies of brands successfully pulling one or more of the five growth levers.

While dairy might be considered a commodity, this ranking shows how that is changing. Value is being added into the market through innovation. A wide variety of brands have developed strong propositions that play on consumer motivations to be healthier, utilise added benefits, and fit into changing lifestyles.

Number 1 dairy brand Müller is a very significant player in the dairy sector. Present in both milk and yoghurt, the brand has been innovating in both areas. Müller Light Kremas was one of Kantar Worldpanel’s Top 10 innovations of 2017

Download your copy today to find out more about how the UK's most chosen brands found growth.

The most chosen UK beverages brands

Kantar Worldpanel forecasts that by 2020, 15.3% of FMCG products will be sold by the three fastest growing channels – e-commerce, discounters and cash and carry. E-commerce will be the fastest raising channel in 2020 representing 7.2% of the global market share boosted by increased internet penetration from markets such as Africa and Asia.

Table 1: Global FMCG value share by channel

Stéphane Roger, Global Shopper and Retail Director, Kantar Worldpanel, said: “The global FMCG market is harder than even growing only a+1.9% in value last year while gross domestic product (GDP) experienced an almost +4% growth. Beyond the average, growth is fragmented because of booming e-commerce and discounters, and struggling hypermarkets and supermarkets. Shoppers are giving a clear message: they want convenience and value for money. At Kantar Worldpanel we predict that spending in supermarkets and hypermarkets will decline to 48.4% in 2020. Successful strategies need better understanding of the new channel dynamics at play and the differences between countries.”

The FMCG global market evolution
The FMCG market globally grew 1.9% in 2017. Less mature markets such as Africa, Latin America and Asia are the ones growing at the fastest rate (+8.8%, 7.3% and 4.3% respectively). In contrast, the market grew at 2.2% in Western Europe (influenced by inflation in the UK in the Brexit context) and US, the biggest contributor to FMCG spend in the world, saw almost flat growth (+0.5%). Demand is declining for three key reasons: population growth is slowing, people are generally trading down on their FMCG spend either by buying less or choosing private label, and they are also shopping less frequently.

Table 2: FMCG annual value growth in 2017

Adapting the retail strategy to shoppers 
Brands that adapt their retail strategy to the expected evolution of channels in each region will have more possibilities to succeed. E-commerce continues to grow fast in Asia, which already has a 7.3% market share. The discounters are strongest in Europe, particularly Eastern Europe, where they hold 27.4% of FMCG sales, and in parts of Latin America such as Colombia (21%) and Mexico (18.8%). In contrast, in markets like Brazil modern trade remains relatively underdeveloped and cash-and-carry is growing fast, now representing 10.6% of sales.

Table 3: FMCG value share by channel (2017)

Source: Kantar Worldpanel, Europanel

[i] Modern trade includes: hypermarket and supermarket, convenience stores and discounters

[ii] Other include: door to door, drugstore, and pharmacy

Responding to the news, Josep Montserrat, Global CEO, Kantar Worldpanel, said: “I am very pleased that Tim has been recognised by Glassdoor for his huge contribution to making Kantar Worldpanel a unique place for people to grow and develop. Putting people first is part of Tim's DNA and top of his agenda. Congratulations!”

Among chief executives recognised by employees in the UK, Kidd received an approval rating of 98% based on the anonymous and voluntary reviews shared by Kantar Worldpanel employees on Glassdoor, one of the world’s largest job and recruiting sites, throughout the past year.

Commenting on the achievement, Abigail Macdonald, HR director at Kantar Worldpanel UK and Ireland, said, “Tim’s dedication to creating an open and trusting environment where everyone can grow to their full potential is evident throughout Kantar Worldpanel and borne out by our success as a business.  Respect for individuals is a key part of our culture and Tim sets a great example, and his win is something that will be celebrated by our whole organisation.”

Robert Hohman, Glassdoor co-founder and CEO, said, “Winning a Glassdoor Top CEO award is a true acknowledgement of exceptional leadership, as it reflects the opinions of the employees who work with a chief executive every day.  I congratulate all of this year’s winners on this significant achievement.  It can be a real recruiting advantage to have a top-rated CEO at the helm of a company who has strong support from his or her employees.  The best CEOs are inspiring, trustworthy, innovative and can be great motivators for people to bring their best selves to work.”

Employees who submit reviews about their company on Glassdoor are asked to rate various factors about their employment experience, including their overall satisfaction and other workplace attributes like senior management.  As part of these ratings, employees are also asked to rate whether they approve, disapprove or are neutral about the job their CEO is doing.

Among the 770,000 companies reviewed on Glassdoor, the average CEO approval rating is 69 percent.  See the complete list of all UK Top CEOs in 2018 here.

Our UK-specific Brand Footprint 2018 report uncovers the twenty most chosen British beverages brands. Packed with insights on key themes and market trends, the report also contains case studies of brands successfully pulling one or more of the five growth levers.

During the past year, the sugar levy brought a new financial urgency to bear on brands already grappling with consumers watching their calorie intakes. Successfully adapting to changing consumer and regulator needs around sugar has been a key lever for many growing drinks brands in the last year.

The most chosen beverages brand in the UK, Coca-Cola, succeeded through reformulating and rebranding Coke Zero Sugar to more clearly offer consumers choice in their brand portfolio. 

Download your copy today to find out more about how the UK's most chosen brands found growth.

The most chosen UK beverages brands

The results show consumers are increasingly concerned about plastic waste. For example, 44% of respondents say they have recently become more concerned about single-use plastics, and 70% plan to change their behaviour in some way as a result.

Plastic is now ubiquitous and almost impossible to avoid in modern lives. However, in many cases respondents were simply unaware that some of the items they use regularly even contain plastic. Some 21% of respondents were blissfully unaware that the teabag from their daily cuppa is sealed with plastic. Similarly, 38% of shoppers did not realise that wet wipes contain plastic and are not easily biodegradable.

And while attitudes are changing, shifting long-held habits may prove more difficult. For example, only 34% of respondents said they’re happy to switch to more sustainable alternatives such as a reusable coffee cup when picking up their caffeine fix.

With the majority of consumers planning to more sustainable alternatives or buy and use less, disposable carrier bags, bottles and straws are the items most likely to fall out of favour. Other categories could follow suit as alternatives become more widely available.

Get in touch with a member of our Worldpanel Plus team to find out how you can use the service to get broader, faster, deeper insights.

Worldpanel Plus panellist survey, 11^th May 2018, (21,545)

This season, Missguided is the exclusive fashion provider for the Islanders. Fans of the show can now shop what the contestants are wearing through the show’s app in real time. While the concept of shopping clothing from a show isn’t new, with retailers needing more than ever to target new audiences, is this a revenue stream that more retailers should be focussing on?

The latest Kantar Worldpanel fashion data shows that the online channel is growing year on year at 8%, while in-store sales are in decline. Mobile sales are the fastest growing area, up 62% YOY, and now account for one in five of all online sales. Looking to make the most of mobile is therefore a no brainer for retailers, especially those looking to target younger consumers.

For Missguided, a show like Love Island is a marketing match made in bikini-clad heaven. Looking to bring in new shoppers, the show allows the retailer to tap further into the ever-valuable under 35 market, which accounts for £12 billion of fashion spend each year. This group becomes even more important within mobile sales, making 58% of mobile fashion purchases, with this growing at 54% year on year.

But it's not just about preferred channels. When targeting under 35s, it is important for retailers to understand their attitudes in order to know how best to to appeal to them. Under 35s are 50% more likely than the average shopper to shop using interactive social media. They are also more than twice as likely to take fashion inspiration from social media. In terms of behaviour influences, celebrities heavily influence their fashion purchasing decisions with under 35s being two and a half times more likely than the average shopper to take fashion inspiration from stars. Lastly, this demographic is nearly three times more likely than average to keep its finger on the fashion pulse and loves to wear trendy clothes.

While only time will tell if the Love Island partnership will prove fruitful, this is just one example of how retailers can actively engage new shoppers where they are already spending time, instead of waiting for shoppers to come to them. With retailers now competing increasingly with offerings outside of their traditional fashion competitor set, it is crucial to convert shoppers while you have their attention. As shopper behaviour and engagement changes, retailers must innovate and modernise with them to stay top of mind. By better understanding shoppers' and target demographics' mindsets, media habits and shopping behaviour, fashion marketing teams will stand a greater chance of expanding their shopper base by genuinely appealing to consumers in new and engaging creative ways.

Our UK-specific Brand Footprint 2018 report uncovers the twenty most chosen British food brands. Packed with insights on key themes and market trends, the report also contains case studies of brands successfully pulling one or more of the five growth levers.

Food brands that have grown in the last year can be categorised very simply in terms of those that have made life healthier, happier, or more convenient. Warburtons, the UK’s most chosen brand, sits at number one in both the food and overall ranking. The bread brand hasn't rested on its laurels, retaining its top spot through ongoing NPD. It's innovations include Toastie Pockets, which provided time-poor consumers with a convenient alternative to sandwiches. 

Download your copy today to find out how the UK's most chosen brands found growth.

The most chosen UK food brands

Commenting on this month’s market dairy update Kantar Worldpanel expert Oliver Bluring said:

“This period no specific sector saw notable growth. There was improved performance across butter, cream, cheese and yoghurt which saw growth of around £14million combined. Price continues to be the key driver of performance for dairy, except for yoghurt which has managed to grow primarily through attracting new shoppers.”

The biggest boost for dairy came from Waitrose, seeing an improvement of nearly £4.5 million, followed by Asda and Co-op, both growing by more than £3 million. Shoppers at Waitrose favoured milk, with cheese and eggs also having a strong 12 weeks at the retailer.

A considerable increase for dairy has come from retired shoppers – boosting spend by £7million, with pre-family consumers the next best, spending an additional £2.4million.  Growth among young families has declined, with number of shoppers down by and growth down by £2.7 million. Shoppers in the lower social economic groups see the strongest uplift, worth more than £10.5 million collectively.

A recurring trend for dairy is performance being driven through non-promoted sales which increased by £7million in the last 12 weeks. That said, temporary price reduction sales have also seen marginal uplift while decline of sales through the Y for £X mechanism have eased as well.

The MFP markets have benefitted from this great weather with huge growth seen in burgers and grills as the nation fired up the barbeque.

Nathan Ward, Business Unit Director for MFP, explains: “We’ve seen a great performance across lots of areas, but burgers stand out as star performer. Growing 17% year on year, a million more shoppers than last year picked up burgers, which featured in 2.1 million more trips. Volume sales grew by 1.7 million kilos; the equivalent of six jumbo jets. Younger shoppers, especially families, account for 45% of the growth, despite only accounting for 30% of burger shoppers. Good multi-buy promotions for BBQ ranges in store played a role but full price sales have been key to growth as demand increased.”

Ward continues:“Primary and processed poultry were the other big winners this period, growing volumes ahead of the market and attracting more shoppers. Primary chicken in particular gave the overall primary market a boost and added 400,000 shoppers. We saw shoppers making 3.1 million more trips for chicken over the period, as volume growth for legs (+10%), breasts (+8%) and wings (+5%) once again saw it ruling the roost. Chicken breasts were given strong promotional support over the period, with promoted sales up 66% on last year. Greater use of price cuts and multi-buys in the sector saw boosted growth, with 1.8m more trips including primary chicken year on year.

Processed poultry also saw more shoppers entering the category, with promotional support stable– but with greater focus on BBQ lines at this crucial period of the year. Growth among older shoppers has provided a boost for the market, particularly older dependents and retired shoppers.”

A big change this month is chilled fish returning to growth. Levels of inflation have stated to slow, resulting in the market stabilising after a long period of volume decline brought on by rising prices. This month we see shoppers returning to the category, with 360,000 more of us buying fish. All sectors are in growth, except for added value, which has taken a back seat due to the success of barbeque products. One big contributing factor to growth is more promotions; as inflation falls back there has been more latitude to promote, with multi-buys driving strong growth for the category. Natural fish has returned to volume growth as salmon and cod volume sales recover. Salmon is seeing strong volume growth, up 5% on last year, as 555,00 more shoppers buy the market despite prices still rising (up 4%.)

While today’s update is full of positive news for the category, there are still opportunities for growth to be found. The weather continues to  hold out and a summer heatwave is forecasted. Will barbeques continue to be our summer meal of choice, or will we turn to lighter, cold meals like salads? Find out in a month’s time whether it will be another strong month for the market in the next MFP update.

“Premiumisation is a defining trend, and one we see irrespective of where we look in the market.

Out of Home, shoppers are switching their purchases to more expensive markets, cutting down on more routine or lower value trips to save money, and spending more on occasions with a strong treating and enjoyment factor.

Within the home, in more traditional FMCG products and brands, it is clear that premiumisation is a key driver of incrementality for a successful NPD. Our analysis of new product launches finds 72% of premium launches grow the value of their overall category - not just that manufacturer’s portfolio - compared to just 42% of non-premium launches.

Fewer, better

For brands, encouraging ‘fewer, better’ experiences and products is a potential route to growth in challenging times. Small brands such as fashion retailer Cuyana have certainly carved out a successful niche for themselves, offering a premium range driven by ‘fewer, better things’. Is premiumisation of product still a relevant way to do this?

Yes – to a point! Ostentatious wealth is moving both out of reach and out of fashion for consumers. Shoppers want services, experiences and products that make them “healthier, more unique, more efficient”* and are increasingly chosing to spend their money on products that allow them to achieve these aims.

Whilst premiumisation as a concept has been around for a while, the motivation and drivers behind consumers’ purchasing decisions has changed over recent years. With low levels of consumer confidence across the market, shoppers are being more selective with their spending, seeking experiences and that elusive ‘feel good’ factor. Trading up and down has become the norm for consumers – choosing to spend more money on what matters to them, and less on what doesn’t.  

“A new imperative now animates consumption, one best summarized as “Live Large–Carry Little. Consumers want no less of the good life, but they want it without all of the baggage that has come with it before. Consumers want just as much enjoyment, convenience and enrichment, but less of the accumulation, possession and debt. It is about consumers continuing to live large with big ambitions and aspirations while carrying little in doing so.” Kantar Consulting, The third Age of Consumption.

Previous drivers of premiumisation – demand for quality and demonstration of success – still matter, but consumers are increasingly aware of their role in the world and their impact on the planet. Take Patagonia’s Cyber Monday campaign – with the messaging ‘Do Not Buy This Jacket’ – which prompted consumers to think about environmental concerns before they bought, and discouraged impulse, unnecessary purchases. The brand donated the profit from each sale made on that date to local charities. Despite the brand’s plea, sales on that day rose by 11% as consumers took notice of the strong purpose and message from the brand.

Brands also need to understand that our world and therefore our priorities as consumers have shifted. No longer is ‘more’ automatically better – success is often measured by experiences, health and societal consciousness. Those able to use premiumisation to offer products that provide more time, health benefits or positive societal impact are the ones who will win.

What does this mean for brands?

There are three rules for success in the new world of premiumisation:

1. Know your customer’s priorities
With more products available at more price points than ever before, consumers can spend more on the things that matter to them, while cutting back, often significantly, on those that do not.

2. Focus on experiences not things
Customers no longer want more of everything. Focus on ensuring your products add value to your shoppers ‘everyday’. Do they help save time, do they improve an experience?

3. Don’t ignore sentiment
Recent societal trends have had huge knock-on impacts on consumer spending. Focus on plastic and environmental damage (thank you Blue Planet!) has led to outcry at excessive packaging and waste. A new focus on health has led to the sugar tax and minimum unit pricing on alcohol, with impacts on product format, taste, price and ultimately, sales. Understanding and anticipating how changing attitudes might impact your category or product is crucial.

Brands looking to grow just cannot ignore the importance of premiumisation as a strategy – but it’s important to not just focus on product and forget purpose. What you offer your shopper, and how you make them feel, can be just as important as price.”

Get in touch for more information on how Kantar Worldpanel’s Expert Solutions team can help you plan your NPD to capitalise on changing consumer preferences and priorities.

 *Euromonitor, 2017 https://blog.euromonitor.com/2017/10/megatrend-premiumisation.html

As mentioned in our latest Meat, Fish and Poultry update  the recent mini heatwave and an earlier launch of barbecue lines has helped to boost fresh processed meat and poultry. And as Europe’s leading lovers of BBQs, Brits lead the way with consumers spending an average of £4.15 compared with £1.76 for an average evening meal.

Weekend BBQs account for the majority of our consumption, however, the weekday occasion is becoming more and more frequent, as consumers favour both the ease and speed of creating meals on the barbeque.

As you might expect, the vast majority (97%) of meats that are put on the BBQ are not pre-cooked but that said, only 1% of all specific BBQ products actually make it onto the coals. Interestingly, at least 15% of consumers shop for their BBQ meal across both the fresh and frozen aisles.

Although 80% of burgers sold over the summer are the classic beef variety,  vegetarian burgers are gaining popularity with £11.7 million spent on them in the 12 weeks to July 2017. This is 20% more than what was spent on this category for the same period last year.

In such a divergent market the task facing manufacturers is two-fold: first, they need to truly understand what needs and preferences drive these different consumer groups’ choices at different times. Second, they need to ensure their brands have a clear proposition that appeals to these specific needs.

The categories consistently in growth over the past five years are the ones that are either chosen for being healthy, or for being a treat. Consumers are also exhibiting this behaviour in soft drinks; both highly enjoyment-driven sectors such as cola and mixers and health-driven sectors such as smoothies and plain water show sales growth.

However, sectors like juice drinks and flavoured milk that do not appeal strongly to either health or enjoyment are in decline.  Categories (and brands) that are neither healthy enough nor indulgent enough are struggling to prove their ‘value for calories.’

Chris Hayward, consumer specialist at Kantar Worldpanel, comments: “The sun shone on the grocery market over the past month with record-breaking temperatures, a bank holiday weekend and Royal Wedding fever all contributing to a bumper period.  The Friday before the day of the wedding and the FA Cup Final experienced a particularly noticeable spike in sales, with grocers clocking in £415 million over the 24 hours. 

“The festivities and warm weather encouraged shoppers to fire up the barbeque.  Over the past month, sales of burgers and sausages rose by 39% and 12% respectively, while non-alcoholic beer sales jumped by 64%.  Meanwhile, over 16.6 million households chose to pick up an ice cream as temperatures soared.  The hot weather also saw sensible Brits making a beeline for the sun care section, with sales rocketing by 64% on this time last year.”

Morrisons performed particularly well over the past 12 weeks.  Its sales growth of 2.9% is ahead of the overall market. 

Chris Hayward continues: “Morrisons has been enjoying a successful run of form.  The retailer has now celebrated 19 consecutive periods of sales growth and has held market share at 10.5%.  The supermarket succeeded in attracting an additional 311,000 new shoppers through its doors.  Morrisons saw its alcohol sales increase by almost 8%, while the relaunch of the grocer’s own-label line ‘Savers’ also contributed to overall performance.

“With year-on-year sales growth of 2.8%, Asda is also performing ahead of the grocery market.  The retailer continues to prove popular with young families, while an increase in spend per trip – up £0.56 to £26.88 on average – has helped buoy sales.  Asda’s e-commerce offering is also proving a winner among shoppers – the grocer’s online channel saw sales rise by 7.6% year-on-year.”

Over the past 12 weeks Tesco experienced a sales increase of 2.2% and encouraged an extra 170,000 customers to its stores, despite dropping market share by 0.1 percentage points to 27.7%.  Meanwhile, Sainsbury’s first increase in promotional activity in three years helped boost sales by 1.0% year-on-year, though the retailer’s market share fell back by 0.2 percentage points.    

Chris Hayward continues: “Over the past 12 weeks Lidl was the only bricks and mortar retailer to experience double-digit sales growth – up 10.4%.  Branded sales have played a pivotal role for the discounter, accounting for 30% of Lidl’s growth.  Aldi also continues to perform well: with sales up 6.7%, its market share grew by 0.3 percentage points from 7.0% to 7.3%.”

While the disposal of 300 McColls stores is still impacting headline performance, Co-op has experienced sales growth of 1.5%.  Despite experiencing marginal year-on-year sales growth of 0.3%, Waitrose saw its market share fall back by 0.1 percentage points to 5.1%. 

Iceland also dropped market share by 0.1 percentage points, though the retailer saw sales increase by 0.8%.  Ocado’s e-commerce offer continues to entice shoppers: the online retailer has attracted an additional 132,000 new households over the past 12 weeks and has seen its year-on-year sales increase by 12.7%. 

Greater demand for gluten or dairy-free options, particularly from younger shoppers, has boosted the category. Since 2016, there has been an additional 449 million ‘Free-from’ occasions – representing an incredible 26% growth over that time.

Brands producing allergen-free foods that taste good has been a key driver for success for the ‘Free from’ category. Compared to 2016, 189 million additional servings were specifically chosen for taste and enjoyment.

And consumption is becoming increasingly routine, occasions described as ‘planned’ have grown by 150 million over the last two years, showing free from is becoming a part of people’s lifestyles and something that’s here to stay.

‘Free from’ milk products are the standout success, with growth of 16% since 2016 driving the performance of the market overall.

To find out more from our Usage team, get in touch.

The market continues to grow through inflation and premiumisation as prices increase by 7p per pack versus last year. That said volume sales are down slightly this year as fewer shoppers bought them.

Sandwiches are underperforming against other “quick meals” as the Out of Home market becomes more competitive. Consumers are also becoming more considered in what they spend their money on – cutting back on smaller expenditures so they can splash out on evening meals.

Lunchtime is by far the largest occasion for the wider Out of Home market and sandwiches appear in 29% of all “lunch occasions”. Coffee shops are the biggest winner of the sandwich market share as the channel expands beyond its core business of coffee.

Our favourite fillers

Nothing beats a classic, and this is certainly true of the nations’ favourite sandwich, the BLT. However, the strongest growth is coming through vegetable fillings – reflecting the nation’s move towards eating more vegetarian meals. And, while we favour our classics, toasties and wraps are the fastest growing sandwich types as Brits’ become increasingly health conscious.

Find out more about the UK’s booming out of home market in our paper Thoughts On Out of Home: Ingredients for sustained growth

Dental concerns vary country-to-country, for example, traces of bleeding is of high concern for Spanish people whereas in Britain, tooth sensitivity is the most common worry.
 
In other Western European countries like France, Germany and Italy, dental tartar is the most worrying symptom of bad oral care.
 
Our data shows that consumers with oral health concerns tend to be more engaged users.
For example, they are more likely to invest in an electric toothbrush, and other dental kit such as mouthwash and interdental products. And they are also more likely to visit the dentist regularly than those with no dental concerns.
 
What does this mean for your oral care brand, and how can we help you adapt effectively to take advantage of opportunities?
 
Kantar Worldpanel’s Usage Care service can enable your brand to effectively leverage oral needs and target consumers in this developing market. Get in touch with our Usage Care team to find out more.

The papers are packed with insights on key themes and market trends alongside case studies of brands successfully pulling one or more of the five growth levers.

In a challenging environment for brands and retailers, brands that listen to the consumer and adapt to what they need are best placed to succeed. With huge changes afoot in the retail landscape and own label products gaining market share, which brands are innovating and giving consumers a reason to choose their product off the shelf at the moment of truth?

Download your copies today to find out how the UK's most chosen brands found growth.

The most chosen UK food brands	The most chosen UK beverage brands
The most chosen UK dairy brands	The most chosen UK homecare brands
The most chosen UK health and beauty brands

The Brand Footprint ranking, now in its sixth year, measures Consumer Reach Points (CRPs) – to identify the everyday grocery brands chosen by the most shoppers the most often.

Second-placed Heinz, chosen 365 million times across its portfolio including sauces, soups and pastas, was bought by 88% of British households - more than any other brand. The two fastest CRP growers in the top 10, McVitie’s and Cadbury Dairy Milk, both were chosen 3% more times than during the previous year. These two brands, alongside Coca-Cola, up by 2%, demonstrate that consumers are still looking for sweet treats, despite the April 2018 introduction of the sugar levy.

Brand Footprint also reports on the most chosen brands within five key grocery sectors. Number one brand overall, Warburtons leads the food ranking too. Other first place positions are taken by Coca-Cola (beverages), Müller (dairy), Fairy (homecare) and Colgate (health and beauty). 

The UK is a challenging market for brands, with retailers’ own label products taking half of all value sales for the first time this year. While own label sales increased by £3.3 billion, branded sales rose by only £0.8 billion, a result of retailers focusing on lines carrying their own name.

Fraser McKevitt, head of retail and consumer insight at Kantar Worldpanel, comments: “In a challenging environment, it’s more important than ever before to listen to the consumer and adapt to what they need.  If consumers are given a reason to believe, they will choose the branded product.  If they aren’t, they’ll choose the cheapest.  It’s fantastic to see in this Brand Footprint ranking great brands who continue to innovate and find new ways to make consumers want to choose them.”

McKevitt continues “The biggest gains inside the top 10 and beyond have been made by brands innovating in ways currently most relevant to consumers, making their lives healthier, happier and easier.”

Healthier

Across the five FMCG sectors health can mean different things to consumers, whether that is lower in sugar, natural, or free from named ingredients.  Beverage brands increasing CRPs, Fanta (+37%) and Vimto (+14%) successfully reformulated to avoid this year’s sugar levy.  Danone’s Light and Free saw an increase of 141% in this year’s dairy ranking, while Alpro was up 18%. Environmentally aware and natural homecare brands Ecover (+25%) and Method (+47%) also became more popular.

Happier

Fourth-placed McVitie’s (+3%), balanced treating with a nod to health with the successful launch of the Digestive Thins biscuit.  Fevertree’s phenomenal increase of 137% came through the popularity of gin and shoppers’ willingness to pay for premium mixer drinks.   In health and beauty, face masks offered a quick beauty boost contributing to growth for both Nivea (+4%) and L’Oreal Paris (+1%).

Easier

Consumers want products that make their lives easy, and are quick to prepare, consume or use.  Warburtons’ Toastie Pockets helped the overall brand grow by providing an easy alternative to sandwiches. Oats brand Quaker innovated to provide for quick ‘on the go’ breakfasts, resulting in 4% growth.  Beverage brand Ribena enjoyed a 6% growth aided by its minis range, made the right size for lunchboxes.  Homecare brand Regina (+18%) launched the Regina Wish product, with handy-sized sheets for every spill.

Packed with insights on key themes and market trends alongside case studies of how brands have found growth, the Brand Footprint report can be found at www.kantarworldpanel.com/brandfootprint.

With such habitual behaviour, the best time to influence a consumer’s product choice is when their routine is disrupted through a change in lifestyle or needs.

Moments such as having a baby, starting a relationship or retiring can cause huge disruption to our personal care habits, and represent a big opportunity for brands to target consumers as new routines emerge. Equally, developing tooth sensitivity or getting a haircut could have a major influence on someone’s behaviour towards relevant categories.

Brands need to get in front of consumers at the point when they start to build a new regime in the aftermath of one of these changes, and ensure the right range and message is present.

But how can you reach these consumers? Those who have a new physical need such as maintaining a new hairstyle are more likely to be looking to the market for guidance and advice to support them with this. Ensure your brand is the one offering the solutions these consumers need. On the other hand, those who have had a more major lifestyle change will be more passive in relation to the market. But by effectively targeting these consumers, the gains are more likely to be incremental to the category as a whole.

Using our Life Changes product, we can follow consumers before and after these disruptions. This allows us to understand which transitions are the most lucrative targets for your products, and advise on how to ensure your product and marketing are relevant to the newly forming routines as these transitions take place.

As noted in our latest Grocery Market Share, the grocery market is growing at its slowest rate in a year. Inflation is slowing and we are seeing signs of this happening in MFP as well.

Because of the Easter period sales of red meat were up, with roasting products seeing good growth. Taking a closer look at the primary meat and poultry proteins at a 12-week level shows chicken and beef, were up and turkey, lamb and pork were in decline.

Nathan Ward, Business Unit Director for MFP, explains: “The underlying health of the market is strong with 1.6m more trips driving growth. Shopper numbers remain strong, with 9 out of 10 shoppers buying into the market in the last 3 months. The trips are smaller though, as consumers have increasingly wider options available to them for their evening meals. Sales of beef are up again as 370,000 more shoppers make trips with mince and marinades leading the category. When we compare Easter on Easter, we do see a much stronger performance for roasts, but not enough to offset the slower performance at the start of the year.”

Ward continues: “The real growth in the market continues to be processed meats which have moved away from the long term performance decline of the last few years. Processed poultry is the driver of performance, but bacon, burgers and grills have contributed against the back drop of a tough market. Bacon rashers are back on the menu, with a return to Y for £X multi-buys (up 20%) which help stimulate bigger baskets and drive bacon growth.”

Burgers and grills benefitted from 300,000 more shoppers as an earlier barbecue season takes hold this year. The engine of growth remains processed poultry adding 3.2m more baskets this year. New product development is important in all of these categories and continued promotional support has really helped stimulate sales.

Classic traditional favourites such as breaded and battered fish saw growth in volumes as natural and added value categories saw sales drop. Inflation remains a key factor in driving decisions in this market, with category decline from existing shoppers buying less or spending elsewhere.

Will the early May heatwave drive barbecue sales through the roof, or will we see MFP sales slow as we eat more salads and eat al fresco? Find out in our next update in 4 weeks’ time. 

James Foti, consumer specialist at Kantar Worldpanel, comments, “Overall, physical entertainment declined by 13.5% over the past quarter but online sales were a real bright spot. The average shopper spent almost £19 when shopping online over the past 12 weeks – that’s in comparison to around £15 in store – and the lure of e-commerce has now persuaded 27% of consumers to buy their physical entertainment goods exclusively online. A further 37% still split their spend across online and offline, suggesting the high street still plays an important place for shoppers and that those retailers which a1parents looked to the entertainment market to help occupy their kids – the majority of this spend went towards five to 14 year olds and was boosted by Amazon’s major Easter sale. With a number of big-name titles out in the autumn we’d expect to see another boost in gifting later this year but until then, retailers should look to capitalise on the forthcoming school holidays by promoting games that will keep children entertained.”

Planned purchases have been a highlight in a challenging quarter for video. In contrast to the overall decline witnessed by the category, intended purchases experienced growth of 1%, driven by the release of big name titles including Paddington 2, Blade Runner 2049, Thor: Ragnarok and Kingsman: The Golden Circle.

The physical video market continues to be hindered by shoppers leaving the category in favour of digital downloads and rentals. Nearly one million fewer shoppers bought a physical video in the past 12 weeks – 12.5% of these bought a transactional digital title, with 40% also having access to a video streaming subscription in April.

However, within physical purchases shoppers are investing in higher quality 4K Blu-ray format, which now make up 3.3% of all disc purchases – 123,000 shoppers bought 4K Blu-ray in the past 12 weeks.

Commenting on the findings, Kantar Worldpanel dairy expert Oliver Bluring said: “The sector seeing the biggest drop off in growth this period has without doubt been butter, with 12 week uplift down at £24million, while growth of the overall dairy market dropped from £109million to £100million.”

The slowing growth of butter can be seen across all retailers, though Co-op in particular saw its relatively strong uplift last period almost disappear in the last 12 weeks. This comes despite the retailer seeing a strong performance at a total dairy level, where once again the Discounters saw a drop off of almost £10 million between them.

The overall dairy market continues to grow almost exclusively through non-promoted sales with Y for £X deals dipping into decline. This pattern is echoed within the butter sector, where Y for £X deals account for  a decline of £9 million in the past 12 weeks, while Temporary Price Reduction (TPR) sales up lift has fallen back by £7 million.

The decline we see in butter cuts across all life stages, although is particularly evident in those shoppers in the lower socio-economic groups. This again is in contrast to the wider dairy market where these shoppers are driving slight uplift –with retired people being the key group driving decline.

The average UK main course evening meal features items purchased from between 2-3 retailers. Re-thinking our mindset to understand how that end occasion is being shopped for can offer a significant competitive edge in occasion based marketing.

The more central the category is to the occasion, or the more solution led (like meal kits) the core component is, the higher the spend in that retailer. For example, owning the protein on plate can lead to as much as 40p of wider incremental spend for the retailer. This represents a significant increase when the evening meal is worth on average £2.19.  Conversley the owning of less critical components, such as herbs or spices, has less than 5p incremental value.

Understanding the degree to which categories drive wider store spend can help retailers focus efforts and investment in the right place; justifying promotional activity on certain areas can help manufacturers set the scene for the role their categories play in driving whole store value.

Putting the Customer Mission First

In the context of the revenue opportunities up for grabs by driving whole meal value, it’s also important for manufacturers and retailers to consider the impact of shopper missions on how we make choices in-store, to ultimately fulfil occasions we have in the home. Different trips will have different “plate loyalty".

Where shoppers have told us they were on a “main shop” trip we see 67% of the food on an average plate was sourced from that trip. Conversely, “specific journey” missions have only 26% of the plate sourced from that same trip (74% of the plate is accounted for by other shopping trips).
 
Understanding what categories drive each of these respective missions and which categories on plate are "losing" to other missions, and indeed competitors, can provide retailers with insight into the consumer mindset on how we shop. In turn, this can help them to ensure they have the appropriate offers ranged in ways to best serve as many customer needs for that occasion, in that store and on that mission as possible.

Against a backdrop of economic uncertainty and plummeting consumer confidence, shoppers are eating out less often than last year although the market is currently growing strongly year on year, this primarily due to rising operating costs being passed on to consumers.

Data from our Out of Home service shows that shoppers are cutting back on their lunch and snacking occasions to indulge more in evening meals, which are up 6.9% on last year. Dinner is now ranked as the most valuable eating occasion of the day, coming in at an average spend of £10.27. 

Enjoyment and indulgence are the key motivators driving this spend, however, there is still competition from the likes of pubs and bars and takeaways – and these establishments are growing 5.7%.

As consumer confidence decreases, people are choosing where to spend their money based on what matters to them. At a time when consumers are watching their spending, it will be important for chain restaurants to stay creative to make sure they are relevant and attuned to consumer needs.

Over the past 12 weeks, Sainsbury’s increased sales by 0.2% while Asda’s sales rose by 1.4%.  Both Sainsbury’s and Asda dropped market share compared to this time last year – down 0.3 percentage points and 0.1 percentage points respectively.    

Fraser McKevitt, head of retail and consumer insight at Kantar Worldpanel, comments: “This is a pivotal moment for the British grocery market.  A merger between Sainsbury’s and Asda would transform the traditional landscape placing nearly a third of market share in the hands of the joint supermarket giant, though the march of the discounters – and any enforced store closures – could impact this figure. 

“The two supermarkets appeal to different customer bases.  Asda achieves nearly two-thirds of its sales outside London and the south east of England in contrast to Sainsbury’s, which registers 59% of its sales in those two areas.  Sainsbury’s also appeals to more affluent shoppers (ABC1): this demographic accounted for 62% of all sales at Sainsbury’s in comparison to 46% of sales at Asda.  Meanwhile, Sainsbury’s premium own-label line ‘Taste the Difference’ clocked up sales of £832 million annually – nearly two and a half times the size of Asda’s ‘Extra Special’ range.”

Outselling Sainsbury’s in branded goods, Asda also attracts a greater number of households through its doors.  Fraser McKevitt continues: “15.8 million households bought their groceries at Asda over the past 12 weeks –500,000 more households than shopped at Sainsbury’s – but we are seeing a substantial number of customers frequenting both retailers.  Nearly nine million households visited both Sainsbury’s and Asda, with consumers showing little retailer loyalty.”

Overall, the British grocery market grew at its slowest rate since March 2017 at 2.0% – the result of lower grocery price rises.  The like-for-like inflation rate is now 2.1% and is expected to fall further in the coming months.

Fraser McKevitt continues: “Tesco and Morrisons both performed strongly this period.  Morrisons was crowned the fastest-growing traditional supermarket, raking in sales growth of 2.2% and holding market share at 10.5%.  Although Morrisons continues to prove a favourite with shoppers in its northern heartlands the retailer is also excelling in the capital, where it is growing at its fastest rate.  Meanwhile, for the twelfth consecutive period, Tesco has grown more than 2.0% – the first time the retailer has achieved this since March 2011.” 

With sales up 9.1%, Lidl became the UK’s fastest-growing bricks and mortar supermarket.  The discounter upped its market share by 0.4 percentage points compared to this time last year to reach 5.4%.  Despite traditionally performing well in sales of own-label products, branded sales at the retailer rocketed by 32% with sales of branded alcohol, soft drinks and dairy proving particularly successful.

Meanwhile, Aldi has continued to experience strong sales growth – up 7.7% – increasing its market share by 0.4 percentage points to 7.3%.      

Sales at both Iceland and Waitrose rose by 0.2%.  Iceland continues to hold market share at 2.1%, while Waitrose dropped share by 0.1 percentage points on last year to 5.1%.

With the disposal of 300 McColl’s stores still impacting headline performance, Co-op saw sales fall by 0.4% as its market share fell by 0.1 percentage points to 6.0%.  Ocado’s sales jumped by 12.7%, helping the e-commerce retailer to increase market share by 0.1 percentage points to 1.2%. 

It continues to be the key protein in red meat and is seeing a return to annual growth in 2018, with the market growing £19.6million over the last year.

A staggering 9 in 10 grocery shoppers (86%) buy beef annually - equivalent to the population of Australia! These shoppers are making 39.4 million trips a year – and beef is present in 5.4% of all grocery baskets. Mince and marinades are driving growth for the category which ties nicely to the dominant category trends in meat – home cooked dishes and convenience.

Mince is a key component of popular dishes such as bolognaise and lasagne, whilst marinades appeal as quick and easy options which help home chefs create tasty meals with little effort.

Nathan Ward, Business Unit Director for MFP, explains: “We know that beef is suffering compared to chicken in terms of growth, but there’s still scope for growth in these tough conditions by meeting consumers’ needs. Shoppers want quick, delicious, and easy meals which are simple to cook and healthy(ier), and beef can play a great role in all of these." 

The organisation achieved 30th place in the ranking of the UK’s Best Workplaces in the large company category.

Tim Kidd, Managing Director, Kantar Worldpanel, UK, Ireland and US, said of the achievement:

“We are delighted to have been recognised by Great Place to Work as one of the UK’s Best Workplaces.

A founding principle of everything we do here is trust. Very simply, we give our people the support and development they need to do their role, and trust them to get on with their job with the best interests of our clients, our business and our colleagues top of mind.  We listen to what they say, treat people fairly, and celebrate our collective achievements.

There’s no conflict between investing in our people and looking after our financials; it’s a virtuous circle. We know that happy staff means happy clients, and business success and everything else follows on from that.

“It’s a fantastic feeling to be formally recognised for our efforts. This achievement is down to the hard work of every single member of our team who do so much to make this a great place to work. They’re the reason I go to work every day and I want to say a huge thank you to them all.”

About Great Place to Work®

Great Place to Work® UK is a consultancy specialising in workplace culture, helping organisations to create exceptional, high performing workplaces where employees feel trusted and valued. We help employers improve recruitment, retention and productivity by putting employees at the heart of the organisation, analysing what they think and feel and identifying the real issues that need to be addressed. Part of a global organisation, we apply data and insights from approximately 10,000 organisations across the world to benchmark individual performance and advise employers on how to continuously improve employee engagement and wellbeing and so help build and sustain business performance. We run the Best Workplaces™ awards to enable the organisations we work with celebrate their achievements, build their employer brand and inspire others to take action.

Finding new shoppers will be a significant driver for growth for individual brands in the sector.

With consumers’ disposable incomes being squeezed, the brands that come out on top in this highly discretionary market will be those best able to understand and respond to customers’ needs. Understanding why consumers choose certain foods, in specific locations, at certain times will be the key to unlocking growth.

Our latest UK Thoughts On paper “Out of home: Ingredients for Sustained Growth”, uncovers how brands can tap into the opportunities in this growing sector.

Download a copy of the paper today, and for more information about how you can find growth through understanding and fulfilling shopper needs, get in touch.

For the global view, our “Out of Home, Out of Mind?” report gives a comparative read of the out of home market across Brazil, China, France, Indonesia, Mexico, Portugal, Spain, Thailand and the UK. 

One of the key observations from Chris’ presentation is that often the most convenient aspect of a convenience store is its location. By understanding shopper behaviour we can understand what their motivations are for visiting and what they are looking for from products and solutions in store.

It's not simply enough to be conveniently located. Shoppers are more time poor than ever and need retailers to make their lives easier too. The average evening meal takes 34 minutes to prepare, down from 60 minutes in 1987. Consequently, consumers are willing to pay more of a premium for products that save them time and effort, than for an average product that is bought at a convenience store, potentially closer to home.

However, the golden rule is that whether a shopper is picking up a meal for tonight or has ran out of cat food, understanding their motivations is the key to the categories and solutions that will help the convenience trade win.

The report analyses data from Kantar Worldpanel consumer panels in Brazil, China, France, Indonesia, Mexico, Portugal, Spain, Thailand and the UK. It also throws light on contrasting purchase behaviours at a local level. 

Unique regional patterns for OOH

The report finds that OOH purchase behaviour is most developed in the UK, where shoppers spend an average of $525 annually on away from home purchases—almost double that of Spain, the market with the second highest spend ($225).

Thailand’s shoppers are the most frequent OOH buyers, with 214 trips on average per year—more than once every other day. The UK is close behind (199), followed by Mexico (105) and Spain (102).

Where does OOH happen?

The hotels, restaurants and cafes (horeca) channel performs strongest in Europe, with 83% of Portuguese OOH spend and 60% of Spanish spend outside the home happening in horeca locations.

Outside of Europe, impulse channels and traditional trade make up a large proportion of OOH spend. In Brazil, 36% of snack food purchases away from home happen in impulse channels, whereas 85% of total OOH occasions in Indonesia occur in traditional marketplaces.

OOH is incremental to modern trade

$2 out of every $10 spent in modern trade is done outside the home.

As modern trade (hypermarkets, supermarkets and convenience stores) continues to proliferate in developing markets, there has been a knock-on effect for OOH consumption. In Thailand and Mexico, consumption outside the home accounts for more than half the total modern trade spend in snaking food and non-alcoholic drinks (59% and 55% respectively), followed by China (39%) and Indonesia (38%).

Maria Josep Martínez, global Out-of-home director, Kantar Worldpanel, said:

“Each country has unique customs, which makes adapting OOH offerings across regions difficult. People shop across different channels to meet different needs, and local trade landscapes have a big impact on purchases outside the home. There is no one-size-fits-all approach.

Brands have an opportunity to review behaviour in each market, understanding key differentiators and channel structures. For retailers and manufacturers willing to take on the challenge of creating an out-of-home strategy the rewards can be significant.”

Giles’s presentation looked at health – a hot topic in the food and drink industry, and one of the biggest drivers of changing consumer behaviour.  In reality, it’s not a standalone issue - our attitudes and behaviour reflect a complex web of economic, societal and environmental factors.

What is clear is that from a public health perspective is that there is a real need for change. Some 27% of the UK population is obese - up from 16% in 1995 - and the content of our shopping baskets shows we’re still buying too much sugar, saturated fat and salt.

Our insight into consumption habits shows Brits are increasingly choosing food and drink for health reasons, up 5% on last year, and giving “health” a value of £23bn a year. Consumers are also willing to pay 9% more for an option which they consider healthy.

With consumers most strongly associating health with fruit, vegetables and pulses, one might assume we’re heading towards becoming a nation of vegetarians. But the data shows that while there has been an acceleration in the number of meat free evening meals, vegetarianism has grown slowly. So consumers are cutting down rather than cutting out meat, and this is more likely to be motivated by health than by saving money.

The official colour of choice in Europe is purple, which is the most popular unnatural hair colour in each of the big five European countries.

Those dying their hair a lighter shade (like silver, grey or white) are the most likely to visit a salon, while darker shade transformations (going black, purple, pink or blue) are most likely to be done in the home.
 
These individuals are also more concerned about nourishing their hair – they use products like conditioners, intensive masks, hair oils and serums more often than others.

Kantar Worldpanel’s global out-of-home (OOH) service – measuring what people buy and consume away from their home – shows that hot coffee is bought and consumed outside the home by over half the population across France, Spain, the UK, China, Portugal, Brazil and Mexico.

Within these countries 70% of hot coffee spend happening out-of-home with different patterns by country. In China, for instance, 95% of the hot coffee purchases are done away from home, while in Mexico it totals 62% with potential for further growth.

Three areas to focus on

Develop the big markets: With the population size and rapid rates of development in Brazil, Mexico and China, there is huge potential to increase both market penetration and frequency of consumption in these markets. Due to the population size in China it is the second biggest coffee market in our study, after the UK, despite coffee only making up 7% of OOH beverages occasions.

Focus on the experience: In the markets where spend per occasion is low such as Brazil and Portugal, there is great opportunity to develop market value by introducing new channel concepts where sharing and premium experiences are enhanced.

Encourage cross-selling: Coffee is a natural accompaniment to a variety of snacks and this is a good way to increase spend per trip. Sales increase two to three times when cookies, pastries or sandwiches are added to the order.

Consumption patterns are quite different across each country and it’s important to understand this to fully appreciate these opportunities.

Country habits

In this study, Western Europe is the largest market for consumption of hot coffee away from the home. Over three quarters of the population across the UK, Spain and Portugal buy coffee when they are out and about. It’s not just an occasional treat either, with the British and Spanish enjoying it at least once a week. Consumption of hot coffee is significantly lower in the other countries in our analysis, with only 40 to 54% of the population buying hot coffee OOH in Brazil, Mexico and China. 

Customer occasion

The profile of those who buy hot coffee out-of-home differs considerably by country and its stage of market development. In markets where consumption is more established such as Spain, the consumer tends to be middle class and male, with the occasion taking place mostly at breakfast (60% of occasions). This contrasts with China, a newer market, where coffee is more likely to be drunk after work whilst socializing by young, upper class females (40% of occasions)

Place of purchase

Where coffee is purchased makes a big difference to the average spend per occasion. In the UK, Mexico and China it is high ($2.9, $2.6 and $4.5, respectively) because of the prevalence of coffee shops.

By contrast, in Brazil and Portugal coffee is mainly purchased in bars, which drives the average spend per trip close the to the $1 mark.

About our global out-of-home service

These insights have been taken from the global out-of-home service, which covers different types of food and beverages. A more detailed report will be available shortly. Do not miss our latest updates by signing up for our newsletter.

Download the infographic through the link on this page and please if you want to find out more about the service.

That said, dairy continues to grow faster than the wider fresh and chilled market, and total grocery, which dropped to 1.5% and 2.5% respectively this period. In volume terms, total grocery and fresh and chilled dipped into decline by 0.1% and 0.5%, while dairy saw marginal growth (0.6%.)

As Christmas sales are no longer included in the latest 12 week data, it is no surprise to see that the category seeing the fastest rate of decline is cream (down by £3.8m) followed by cheese (down 9.6m) as both usually perform well over the festive period.  

Similarly, the retailer seeing the sharpest percentage drop off in dairy was Aldi; the retailer that “won” Christmas in dairy saw value sales drop £9.1m, followed by Lidl - down £4.7million.

However, while the discounters have seen the biggest drop off compared with last period, they still see the highest year on year growth. In contrast to the other major retailers, Co-op saw a strong uplift on last period as brands moved into growth after a number of periods of successive decline in the convenience retailer.

Once again, dairy growth came from non-promoted sales, but these represented £5 million less than in the previous 12 weeks as both Y for £X and price cut promotions started to pick up.

Finally, in terms of demographics, all social classes see a very similar rate of drop off in growth. However, the younger (pre-family and young families) and older (empty nesters and retired) age groups are most driving the decline.

As noted in our latest Grocery Market Share release, the “Beast from the East” really played havoc with normal shopping patterns and MFP was no different. MPF markets took a hit, being less likely to be stockpiled than other categories. The key fresh categories saw volumes down as shoppers picked up more convenient options which could be stored for longer and with less effort. Frozen processed poultry saw a strong uplift over the period, with volumes up 18%, with strong investment from both brands and private label helping to drive the category.

Taking a closer look at the primary meat and poultry proteins, only chicken is growing in volume terms, as beef, lamb and pork all continue to decline. This continues the trend of the last few months; could this be the effect of the much-reported march towards veganism?

Nathan Ward, Business Unit Director for MFP, explains: “The primary meat and poultry market continues to see an overall decline, driven by 822,000 fewer trips. Shoppers continue to be engaged with the market with almost 9 out of 10 shoppers buying it in the last the months. What we are seeing are fewer trips, with shoppers increasingly going for other, more convenient, options, which see greater investment as brands and manufacturers look to address the flexitarian trend with new ranges and products. Red meat continues to struggle in volume terms, but lamb and pork have seen value grow as inflation further impacts these markets.”

The performance of beef has changed, with roasting joints seeing volume growth once again, and steak and mince in decline as shoppers make fewer trips. Mince has seen 850,000 fewer trips from pre-family shoppers, whilst steaks have seen 380,000 fewer trips from empty nesters driving these losses.

Ward continues “In primary markets, chicken continues buck the trend, with falling prices and rising volumes. Promotions are key to this dynamic, with promotional volumes up 7% on last year as we see more investment in meal deals - up 17% and TPRs - up 8%. Chicken breasts are the main beneficiary of this investment, with overall volumes up 5% and promotions up 37%. This has brought in more shoppers with 52% of the population buying them in the last 12 weeks, an increase of almost 300,000 shoppers on last year.”

Inflation in chilled fish has reduced significantly in recent periods and this is stemming overall volume declines. While the key categories, natural and added value, continue to lose volumes the rate of decline is slowing as the effect of currency fluctuations and other outside effects slow. We expect to see a return to volume growth in the next few periods.

Our next update will include the impact of Easter, usually a big fixture of the MFP calendar.  We look forward to uncovering how the early Easter affected the market, and hope to report some more positive news in four weeks’ time

By the end of 2018 the global media industry is set to be worth over $550 billion. With this number growing FMCG brands making up a quarter of that spend, understanding the impact of advertising is crucial. FMCG brand growth is directly linked to finding new shoppers, so you must ensure your media spend is helping you do the same.

Kantar Worldpanel conducted a series of analyses to isolate the effects multi-channel advertising has on FMCG brands globally, focusing on the impact of media on shopper behaviour. In the short term it creates a direct uplift on sales, but the media effect does not finish with the campaign—advertising can make a campaign’s impact last far beyond its end.

Finding new shoppers

A brand’s shopper base is never static. On average, half the shoppers who buy you this year will not buy you the next. We have seen that, for a brand to grow, it needs to find new shoppers. Of all the FMCG brands growing globally, 9 in 10* have done so through increasing penetration.

Linking brand growth directly to finding new shoppers means you must ensure your advertising is supporting this. Putting the shopper at the heart of your media analysis unlocks both short and long-term growth.

In the report we look at how this works in practice, and what it means for brands wanting to boost advertising’s impact on sales.

Fraser McKevitt, head of retail and consumer insight at Kantar Worldpanel, comments: “The Beast from the East played havoc with consumers’ usual shopping plans.  In the run up to and during the cold snap, shoppers stockpiled groceries buying 4% more items than normal, increasing the average value of a trip from £14.99 to £15.80.  However, they simultaneously visited stores 5% less often as they stayed wrapped up at home, meaning overall lost sales from the storm were minimised to £22 million.  Warming foods and drinks were the go-to items for customers after braving the snowy weather – sales of hot beverages and tinned soup grew by 8.4% and 27.5% respectively over the past month.”

An earlier Easter this year compared to 2017 motivated consumers into starting their Easter weekend shopping during the month of March.  Fraser McKevitt continues: “Despite average prices jumping by 35p to £1.83, Easter eggs were rolling off the shelf in March with sales up 69% compared to this time last year.  Almost 15 million shoppers picked up Easter eggs last month while the average household, tempted by promotional offers, was swayed into buying at least two Easter eggs to meet their seasonal chocolate fix.  Hot cross buns also saw a steep rise, with sales up £7.7 million compared to this time last year.”

The discounters – Aldi and Lidl – continue to make their mark with both retailers achieving new market share highs.  Growing sales by 10.7%, Aldi increased market share by 0.5 percentage points to reach a 7.3% share of the market, while Lidl clocked in year-on-year sales growth of 10.3% to reach a 5.3% share.  Fraser McKevitt continues: “Aldi and Lidl are continuing to disrupt the market.  As the discounters proceed with the expansion of their store portfolios, over the past 12 weeks 63.5% of all households visited at least one of the retailers.”   

Over the past 12 weeks Tesco experienced a sales increase of 2.4% to hold market share steady at 27.6% – the first time it has held share since December 2016 – attracting an additional 262,000 customers through its doors.  The retailer saw sales growth of branded goods overtake own-label groceries for the first time since June 2015. 

Morrison’s also saw sales increase by 2.4% with a resulting market share of 10.4%.  Growth at the retailer was helped by a strong performance in online sales, with Morrison’s e-commerce offering proving particularly popular among younger, more affluent shoppers.       

Despite encouraging shoppers to up the size of their baskets by 2.4% – the fastest increase experienced amongst the big four – Asda’s market share fell back by 0.2 percentage points to 15.6%.  Sainsbury’s also saw market share drop – down 0.3 percentage points to 15.8% – despite sales growth of 0.6%.  The retailer has continued its move away from promotions: only 32.7% of sales at Sainsbury’s were achieved while a product was on offer. 

Co-op saw sales increase by 0.1%, with the disposal of 300 stores to McColl’s still impacting performance.  Waitrose also experienced sales growth – up 1.5% year-on-year – while its market share fell by 0.1 percentage points to 5.0%.  After two years of continuous growth, Iceland saw sales fall by 0.8% over the past 12 weeks and dropped market share to 2.1%. 

Online sales growth continues to slow, now only increasing by 3.6% compared to this time last year.  Ocado outperformed the overall online market with sales growth of 9.3%, to hold market share at 1.2%.     

An update on inflation

Grocery inflation now stands at +2.5%* for the 12 week period ending 25 March 2018.  Prices have been rising since the 12 weeks to 1 January 2017, following a period of grocery price deflation which ran for 30 consecutive periods from September 2014 to December 2016.  Prices are rising fastest in markets such as butter, fresh fish and fresh pork, fresh lamb, and are falling in only a few markets, including laundry detergents and ambient cooking sauces.

As the UK’s elderly population continues to grow, the ONS has forecasted that those aged 65 and over will increase their share of the total population from their current 18% to 22% by 2030. As such, it has become ever more important for manufacturers to understand the consumer behaviour of the over 65s.

Healthy starters

Health is a key driver for the over 65s market, and is becoming increasingly important to them, in contrast with those under 65 who have declining engagement with health - down 1%. For those aged 65 plus health accounts for 39% of food servings and this is increasing (up 2% year on year). Engagement with positive health benefits of food and drink choices is driving this, with consumption for ‘health benefits’ such as fibre and vitamins growing 5% since 2016.

For the over 65s, health is made a priority at the start of their day; with 33% of ‘health’ servings taking place at breakfast. This is reflected in their food choices, with fruit, porridge and eggs among the top breakfast choices. Preserves, morning goods and cereal bars are being chosen less often. For this group, breakfast is a functional occasion, with almost 60% of the breakfasts being described as ‘planned’ or ‘fuelling’.

Take it easy

Whilst over 65s are more likely than the average to prepare their food in the microwave, there appears to be a recent shift toward oven cooked meals (up 4% on 2016) as microwaved meals see slight decline. We also see that ease of preparation is now favoured over speed of preparation - up 3% from 2016.

Leading the cold (drinks) front

The over 65s are the most important group for hot drink consumption (accounting for 38% of all occasions). However, it appears even they are not totally immune to the rise in consumption of cold drinks. For the first time, cold drinks are bigger than hot drinks at a total level, with increased water consumption playing a huge role.  As we get older, our penchant for hot beverages increases, however in reality cold drinks have done a better job at tapping into older consumer needs- with their cold drink consumption up 3.5% over the last 5 years. Hot Drinks are thus losing ground with their core consumers and consumption is flat at 0.3% over the same period.

Eggs-cellent Easter deals

This year, retailers have had less time between New Year (when Easter Eggs start to go on sale) and Easter in which to sell seasonal items.  

Ash Anzie, grocery expert, explains: “This would normally mean we’d expect lower sales when we review Easter this year, however, since the start of the year, sales of Easter eggs are up by 35% year on year and hot cross buns are up by 14%. Multi-buy deals which were non-existent in the market last year have come into prominence, making up 16% of that 35% growth and are now worth around 12% of the markets sales. This has been driven by Tesco who introduced their ‘Buy 2, Get 2 Free’ promotion.”

Additionally, from a shopper perspective it’s older shoppers 55 plus that are growing, mainly from empty nesters or retired households, rather than from family households buying for children.

In the 4 weeks to 25^th February, 1.4 million more households purchased Easter eggs compared to last year. Anzie continues: “The poor weather will have disrupted sales a bit; but is likely to have delayed purchasing rather than stopped them altogether. We are still seeing rising prices, so I'd expect seasonal categories to grow year on year overall.”

The classic Easter lunch

Last year, a staggering 3.6 million of us splashed out on fresh lamb roasting joints over Easter – that’s bigger than the population of New Zealand. In fact, Brits love lamb so much, that last year, a whopping 14,000 trips per hour were made for lamb over the four-week period. Fresh lamb roasting joints saw double digit price increases, and per kilo, now cost the equivalent of the average bottle of wine. Interestingly, price increases didn’t deter shoppers, and over 4,000 tonnes of lamb were sold during Easter week last year; 41 times the weight of a blue whale.

However, this year, lamb has struggled with rising prices broadening the price gap for what was already the most expensive red meat. Nathan Ward, our meat fish and poultry expert, explains: “This year we’d predict the usual Easter uplift for lamb will be lower than usual unless there is significant promotional support in store and in the press”.

There is no question that footfall has been challenging, even after Christmas. Sales from shops are declining, down 2.4% on last year, but not all types of shops are having a hard time. Retail parks and outlets are outpacing the fashion market (growing 2.9% and 3.5% respectively). In sharp contrast, high street shops are declining 4.3% year on year.

So why the stark performance differences?

Firstly, consumers are more likely to destination shop than impulse buy as household budgets continue to be squeezed. At shopping centres and high streets, clothes shops compete with restaurants, cinemas and home furnishing shops - all areas that are growing faster than fashion. At retail parks, consumers who plan to go there for a day of shopping will have to take public transport or drive to get there additionally, fashion retailers in these locations are only competing with one another for spend rather than with a whole host of other options.

Secondly, retail parks and outlets cater to value-sensitive shoppers, whereas the high street or shopping centres may not necessarily do so. The fastest-growing retailers in the top 10 fashion retailers in the UK are the value based fashion retailers, with growth driven mainly by attracting new shoppers. Shoppers feel they can trust these retailers to provide good value, especially as they go from strength to strength establishing their style credentials.

Although outlets may be more expensive than value fashion retailers, they benefit from the nature of the current market where promotions drive growth. Our latest 12 week data shows that the discounted market is growing at 5.1% compared to full-price sales which are growing 3.3%. Discounted sales are behind the new shoppers, despite shallower promotions on offer, as consumers seek out deals when buying.

Online slowdown

The last reason retailers should be looking to stores for growth is due to a slowdown in online sales. Last year saw online growth peak at about 10% annually whereas February has seen this slow to 7%. With such a strong performance from online last year, it may be difficult for retailers to meet their year on year performance measures. This is especially evident since online growth benefitted from stealing spend from stores, so as the online market begins to slow, that stolen spend will start to balance out.

While the market this year begins to see signs of recovery, retailers should ensure that they are well placed to take advantage and invest wisely in the right channels. Value for money should always be in the forefront of retailers’ minds as they follow shopper trends, but it’s important to remember that online does not take precedence in fashion sales; instore purchases still account for 70% of sales. While the high street may still be a concern, there are other ways retailers can take advantage of footfall opportunities.  

The sector that saw the biggest step down in contribution to dairy’s growth was butter, which had seen the biggest uplift over the previous 12 weeks, and now contributes £35m down from £44m. The other big drop in actual value was cheese, with contribution down to £24m from £34m, though this represents a smaller proportion of the cheese sector overall.

Across dairy, a number of retailers are contributing less to overall growth including M&S, Iceland and Sainsbury’s, but the Discounters see the biggest fall with contributions to growth strong but down by £8m. In butter the Discounters see a steady fall back of £2.3m with Tesco and Sainsbury’s growth at £2.6m and £1.5m less respectively.

The fall in dairy growth has come primarily through non promoted sales. Promoted sales remain in a similar rate of decline as we’ve seen in previous updates, but with the decline in Y for £X promotions easing off and temporary price reductions (TPRs) accelerating. The fall in non promoted sales growth is even more noticeable in butter where uplift in TPR sales has improved and decline of Y for £X has eased slightly.

Finally, the easing in growth for dairy can be seen across social classes but notably from retired shoppers. Again, for butter, all life stages and social classes drive it’s slow down, though retired shoppers and the less affluent stand out.

Sharing the stage with Adam Leyland, Editor, The Grocer, and speakers from Google, Ocado, Facebook and Sainsbury’s, Fraser's presentation focussed on online shoppers in the UK and how retailers could attract more of them:

In 2017 the online share of UK FMCG spend was was 7.2% of sales, among the highest in the world - on a par with Japan, but behind South Korea.

The online shopper is, at you might expect, biased towards affluent families, but by no means exclusively so, as more than two thirds of online spend is from shoppers from the other socio-economic groups.

Retailers are fighting for existing store loyalty, which strongly influences shoppers' choice of online retailer. That said, pure-play etailers are making inroads, including Amazon which is growing quickly off a very small base.

Despite the rapid online growth of recent years, growth has now slowed to less than 5%. To ramp that up again and attract new shoppers the online model needs to change to remove barriers for shoppers, whether that's the price of delivery, the shopping experience or the available delivery slots.

Only fresh processed meat and poultry has seen growth over the past 12 weeks. Chicken led the category, as beef, lamb and pork are all in volume decline. Chilled fish continues to suffer volume losses as inflation impacts the market, however, we expect to see the pressure slow as price rises slow down. Over Valentine’s Day and Chinese New Year, we might have expected to see uplift for the MFP categories, but this hasn’t driven growth, with the market following a different trend to grocery overall. To find out more about the trends affecting the wider grocery market share read our Grocery Market Share update.

Nathan Ward, Business Unit Director for MFP, explains the reasons why fresh meat and poultry is seeing tougher times: “The market has slowed in the last four weeks when New Year’s resolutions traditionally start to peter out, and some shoppers have left the market. The real driver of decline is in red meats, where beef shows continued volume losses driven by smaller and less frequent trips to the category, with 400,000 fewer purchases of beef this year. The catalyst for this decline is lower-income households and those most affected by inflation. Lamb continues to become more expensive and is declining the fastest– purchased 1.4m fewer times this year."

Ward continues: “Chicken does buck the trend, with falling prices and rising volumes. Chicken is growing in fresh and processed markets, with demand seemingly untouched by the concerns of flexitarianism and veganism. We have seen 1 million more trips containing chicken this year and 195,000 more shoppers, as this versatile meat continues to take a larger share of sales. Cuts of chicken legs and breasts are the drivers for this growth, chicken breasts are being supported in store with 18% more promotions, as price cuts (up 18%) and Y for £X deals (up 19%) increase over the period. Chicken legs has seen similar support, with promotional volumes up 10%, helping to stimulate 900,000 more trips this year."

The effect of Christmas will fall outside of the next data release and we will see what the landscape looks like for meat fish and poultry ahead of Easter 2018. We will look at the key themes and much more in the next update in four weeks’ time.

We  hope you enjoy reading the articles and look forward to hearing your opinions and feedback.

Entertainment

When it comes to entertainment, women spend longer browsing, suggesting that they are a valuable and well-engaged group in this sector. Similarly, with purchasing, women over-index in impulse buys compared with men (physical music: men 12.6%, women 16.9% /DVDs and Blu-rays: men 17.7%, women 22.1%), bringing spontaneity to a category which is predominantly planned.

Women gamers

The stereotype of the teenage boy playing video games alone in his bedroom is history, along with the notion that female gamers are exclusively interested in casual smartphone games. Women account for an increasing amount of spend across all games – with their share of spend increasing by 3.6% between 2016 and 2017.

Makeup and beauty

A growing trend across all age groups especially in millennial women is wanting more of a natural look. In fact, a staggering 67% of women agree that they "wear very little make-up and prefer a natural look". This coupled with an increasing number of women who are no longer shaving represents a gradual shift against gender-based societal norms. Data from our Usage Care service shows that only 25% of women shave because it’s what society expects, and 50%  chose to shave for hygiene purposes. As trends such as “No-makeup March” become more popular and women move away from heavily contoured looks; will beauty brands respond to this need for less complicated and more natural makeup routines?

Fraser McKevitt, head of retail and consumer insight at Kantar Worldpanel, comments: “The grocery market remains in good health, spurred on by February festivities such as Valentine’s Day and Chinese New Year, which lend themselves to a focus on ready meals.  Over the month, sales of chilled ready meals which form part of a meal deal jumped by 26% as retailers offered customers the opportunity to wine and dine at home without the fuss, while Chinese ready meals also rose by more than a quarter.”

Tesco and Morrisons were neck and neck as the fastest growing of the big four – both clocking in sales growth of 2.7%.  Fraser McKevitt continues: “Tesco continues to perform well – more positive news following approval of its Booker acquisition last week.  Despite a slight fall in market share of 0.1 percentage points, Tesco experienced particularly strong growth from its Extra superstores.  The varied selection of groceries on offer at these larger stores has encouraged customers to return to fuller trolley shops, with average baskets worth £31.09 – currently, the highest value in the bricks and mortar market.      

“Holding market share steady year on year at 10.6%, Morrisons has continued its run of form, entering its 16th consecutive period of growth.  Its premium own-label line The Best proved particularly successful, with sales rising by 20% year on year as cooked meats, vegetables and cakes and pastries tickled shoppers’ fancy.”     

Meanwhile, there are no signs of a let up in the shift away from discounted products for Sainsbury’s: only 34.5% of sales at Sainsbury’s were on promotion during the past 12 weeks, in stark comparison to 41.9% for the rest of the big four.  Overall sales growth now stands at 1.1%.    

Fraser McKevitt continues: “Over the past 12 weeks Asda attracted an additional 309,000 shoppers through its doors, helping the grocer achieve its highest sales growth since June 2014, now 2.3%.  At odds with its traditionally brand-focused approach, Asda has also encouraged shoppers to choose own-label alternatives, which are up by 6.4% year on year.  Less than a year since its launch, the retailer's Farm Stores range is bought by 30% of all British households – with sales surpassing £50 million – while its premium Extra Special line increased sales by 19%.”

Aldi and Lidl once again battled to be crowned the UK’s fastest-growing supermarket.  Aldi pipped Lidl to the post this month as sales grew by 13.9% and 13.3% respectively.  With both discounters working hard to expand their store portfolio, Aldi and Lidl also benefited from increased shopper numbers as well as growth in basket size.   

Co-op returned to growth for the first time since July 2017 with sales up 0.4%, after a period of decline following the retailer’s sale of nearly 300 stores to McColl’s.  Iceland held share steady at 2.2% compared to this time last year, increasing sales by 1.3%. 

There were no signs of a slowdown for Waitrose, which saw sales growth of 2.3%.  The supermarket has now experienced uninterrupted sales growth since March 2009.  Meanwhile, internet-only grocer Ocado increased market share by 0.1 percentage points to 1.2%.    

As Brits eat breakfast more often, skipped breakfast occasions are declining by -1%, although when we do eat breakfast, we’re most likely to do so at home. In fact, over 90% of the UK’s breakfasts are eaten at home - versus 67% of other meals. Even though, we’re buying breakfast on the go more often (+2% from last year), this is partly offset by the fact that shoppers are carrying breakfast out less frequently - down by 1%.

Our expectations of breakfast are changing as consumers become more focused on health. We now want our breakfasts to provide us with a portion of fruit or veg (+4%), to include general health benefits (+3%), and to be natural and less processed (+9%). Additionally, it must fill us up (+7%), and last but not least, it should taste good (+2%).

No more sugar-coating breakfast

Consumers are becoming increasingly health conscious; this is reflected in our food and drink choices. For example, fruit juice was once a staple part of Brits’ breakfast consumption and a way to get in our 5-a-day. This drink is now declining due to its high sugar content (15g sugar per 150ml recommended portion size); one glass delivers 50% of the recommended daily sugar allowance. Instead, we’re increasingly choosing fruit to deliver this. Cereal remains a key staple, appearing at 55% of breakfast occasions, however toast and spreads are declining -63 million occasions and -67million occasions respectively. Eggs are frequently seen as a healthier option, as consumers are choosing them more often at breakfast, up by 97million occasions.

Although we’re eating more fruit, cereal isn’t completely losing out. We’re revamping our cereal by adding fruit (+6%) and yoghurt, with tinned fruits (+9%) and fresh fruits (+4%) driving this trend. Interestingly, we’re not substituting cereal for fruit, when we add fruit to our cereal our portions are 10% smaller, leading to an overall decrease in the average bowl size.

Despite these changes, breakfast remains by far the cheapest meal of the day at 56p per person per occasion, costing less than the average snack 82p. Our habits are beginning to change slowly (the value of breakfast has grown 4p over the last 4 years), and it’s unlikely that this is going to change dramatically soon.

Kantar Worldpanel Usage | Total In Home & Carried Out | 52 w/e 3^rd December 2017

Although milk continues its strong early year performance, the category seeing the biggest improvement in contribution to dairy growth versus last period is butter; contributing £44m in the last 12 weeks, up from £37.7 the previous period.

The only major retailers seeing an increase from dairy this period are Morrisons (an extra £3million), Co-Op (£2.1million), and Iceland (£0.5million). While in butter Morrisons and the Co-Op (both around £2million) are joined by Tesco, Sainsbury’s, and Waitrose (all around £1million).

In net terms, dairy continues to grow solely through non-promoted products, though the rate of decline in sales on promotion continues to ease. Butter, however, does see a big boost in sales on price cut promotions, with full price sales down, as brands (specifically in spreadable butter) drive performance this period.

Finally, while there has been little change to the demographics driving the performance of dairy, however, those households without children and those of lower incomes have contributed to the growth of butter. A reduction in volume deals (which appeal to families) in branded butter in favour of price cuts is driving growth from non-families.

Olivia Moore, analyst at Kantar Worldpanel, comments: “Although still experiencing customer losses – almost 37,000 fewer compared to this time last year – sales of games have been bolstered by remaining gamers spending an extra £2 on average every time they shop.  Gaming fans are also buying titles more frequently.  FIFA 18 and Super Mario Odyssey performed well, as Call of Duty: WWII came out on top as gamers’ pick for the holidays.  The success of Super Mario Odyssey also provided a welcome boost to the Nintendo Switch market as gamers returned to handheld consoles. 

“Amazon performed particularly well in sales of mint games, now accounting for one in four purchases in this sector.  The online giant is also leading the way in the entertainment market overall – winning Christmas to increase market share by 3.3 percentage points compared to this time last year.”   

Meanwhile, HMV took pole position in the video market with a 26.8% share, holding Amazon at bay in second place.  HMV saw a strong performance from DVDs that have been on the market for over three months, which saw double-digit growth as existing shoppers were tempted into buying these titles more regularly to brighten up winter nights.

Although fewer shoppers chose to buy their loved ones games, videos and CDs for Christmas in 2017, the festive period is still a bountiful time of the year for retailers.  Olivia Moore explains: “Surprising friends and family with physical entertainment gifts is still a popular choice: almost 45% of spend in this market during the final quarter of the year came from customers picking up a game, video or CD to put under the tree.  With some big releases slated for 2018, cinematic favourites could provide a boost to the sector.  The latest blockbusters from several major Hollywood franchises are set for release this year, including titles like Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom, Solo: A Star Wars Story and Avengers: Infinity War. 

“The past year also saw a return to old-school formats – with a vinyl revival kicking off – coupled with the need for the latest gadgets.  As more and more shoppers upgrade their TV sets to accommodate 4K and ultra-high definition experiences, sales of 4K discs are also set to increase.  With these new – and old – formats tickling shoppers’ fancy, entertainment products could once again be the gift of choice.”    

Customers are creatures of habit – 79% of entertainment purchases over the past 12 weeks were planned, compared to 72% the year before – presenting both a challenge and an opportunity for retailers. 

Olivia Moore continues: “As shoppers are becoming more rigid in their spending habits, capitalising on a customer’s impulsive streak is becoming more difficult for retailers – but it can be done.  Shoppers that had no intention of making an entertainment purchase – or were browsing for other goods – were tempted into buying a game, CD or DVD on a whim 15% of the time.  This jumps to 25% of occasions in the grocers. 

“To encourage shoppers to make more impulse purchases, supermarkets and high-street retailers alike need to become savvier with their in-store layouts and guide customers from aisle to aisle.  A bit of theatre wouldn’t go amiss either – by tempting more consumers into their stores with colourful displays and attractive designs, retailers can convince customers to splash the cash on impulse.”     

Looking at data from Kantar Worldpanel’s Usage service we see changing lifestyles, including the rise of single-person households reflected in our food and drink choices.

For example, Britons are eating on their own more often now than a years ago on average an extra 15 times - which equates to 180 million more meals eaten alone. Our research shows that when we eat on our own, we are less concerned with cooking from scratch and are instead a third more likely to have foods that are easy to prepare and easy to clear up.

However, this doesn’t mean we aren’t inclined to indulge; when choosing food for solitary dining occasions 71% of the choices we make are based purely on taste instead of health.  

For more information contact our usage team. 

Both fresh primary meat and poultry and fresh processed meat and poultry grew volume over the past 12 weeks, but chilled fish continued to suffer volume losses.  Only fresh processed meat and poultry (growing at  4.8%) grew faster than the wider grocery market (3.4%) and  inflation.  Read our Grocery Market Share update to find out more about the trends affecting the wider grocery market.

The majority of households bought more meat and poultry over the period, with a majority of shoppers continuing to buy the categories. So the rise of vegan and vegetarian diets does not necessarily mean consumers are moving away from meat overall.

When we look at fresh primary meat and poultry, we do see some real differences in performance, with poultry growing volumes and red meat seeing tougher times.

Nathan Ward, Business Unit Director for MFP, explains: “The Christmas period  clearly  has a significant affect on the 12 week trends, but there is strong growth outside of Christmas dinner, especially for chicken which is seeing prices fall and volumes rise. Shoppers have seen average prices fall 16p per kilo, which  has helped to add 466,00 more shoppers and 1.6 million more trips compared to last year. The growth of chicken is not driven by shoppers buying whole birds for a traditional Sunday roast, with chicken legs (11.4%) chicken breasts (2.5%), and chicken wings (5.2%) all seeing volume growth. Chicken legs and chicken breasts are both increasingly sold on promotion, resulting in falling prices and therefore attracting more shoppers.”

Conversely, beef and lamb are both struggling, with prices rising above the market average. Beef prices are up 18p per kilo, and  lamb 40p per kilo. As prices rise further on lamb, shoppers are using it less as a source of protein and making less trips. Beef sales are falling as shoppers change their mix in the category and make smaller trips. Roasting cuts are driving the decline, whilst mince and steak remain buoyant, with promotional support helping to bolster volumes. Promotions are up 24% - with retailers using more price cuts, and mince promotions up 10% with the return of Y for £X deals helping to drive volumes.

Ward continues: “Chilled fish has continued to suffer in volume terms as long term inflation affects the category. Christmas didn’t provide the same level of uplifts for added value, shellfish or smoked fish, which are all seeing significant volume losses. We would usually expect to see healthier eating trends help the fish category, but this January the category is swimming against the tide, particularly as other proteins sharpen their promotional focus and offer to meet a wide range of needs across their cuts.”

Things are looking positive at the start of 2018, but will we see the pressure in store and in the press start to influence meat and poultry sales? Will we see a resurgence for fish as the inflation annualises and shoppers get used to the new prices? Love is also in the air as Valentine’s Day hits our figures – will shoppers dine in on the deluge of meal deals, or will we look to a value Valentine’s Day experience? Find out more in the next update in four weeks’ time.

Spending

2017’s Valentine’s day was a valuable one for retailers, as shoppers splashed out a whopping £43 million extra compared to an average non-Valentine’s fortnight, with M&S and Tesco taking the largest share.

Valentine’s day dining in

As households tightened their purse strings in 2017, more consumers stayed at home and treated themselves instead of dining-out. Meal deals played an important part of their celebrations with 7% of all British households participating in dining-in offers which saw deals priced over £10 grow at 27%. All three courses were on the menu; chilled desserts became much more popular in 2017 and featured in 60% of all deals.

Roses are red violets are blue

Flowers are synonymous with February 14^th and they remained a popular way to say I love you in 2017. On average, flowers priced less than £5 made up most of the sales over Valentine’s, however 20% of bunches sold were priced £10 and over. The three most popular choices were daffodils, roses and tulips.

Red red wine

Last Valentine's Day, red wine was the most popular romantic tipple, accounting for almost 20% of alcohol purchased in the week before the big day. Although it may not knock red wine off of its pedestal, sparkling wine's inclusion in meal deals this year may see its popularity soar, as people look to treat their loved ones to a bit of celebratory fizz.

Data: Kantar Worldpanel, Purchase Panel, 4 weeks ending 26 February 2017

Range rationalisation has made it ever harder for new NPD to find shelf space, and brands need to quantify the impact of a launch.

Being big is not enough on its own; our analysis of the best selling new brands of 2017 also looks at how incremental those sales were.

For a new brand, cannibalisation of the existing range needs to be avoided. For retailers, innovation is a success if it adds value to the category, not only stealing from other lines.

Get in touch to find out more about how to plan your NPD to maximise the benefit for both brand and category.

Download the Top 10 ranking (PDF)

Fraser McKevitt, head of retail and consumer insight at Kantar Worldpanel, comments: “Following a record-breaking Christmas, January saw customers rein in their spending, with shoppers spending £1.6 billion less in the grocers compared with the month before.  Households saved £63.04 on average over January compared to December 2017: customers spent £3.39 less every time they shopped and sales of premium own-label products nearly halved.”

New Year’s resolutions also had an impact on the grocery market.  Fraser McKevitt continues: “As consumers look to more healthy alternatives following the holiday, trends like Veganuary have taken off and now 29% of evening meals contain no meat or fish at all".  This sustained interest in vegan and vegetarian diets is reflected in the chilled aisles – over January one in ten shoppers bought a meat-free ready meal, causing sales to rocket by 15% compared to this time last year.  Sales of spinach, cherries and aubergine also grew strongly compared to the past 12 months – up 43%, 25% and 23% respectively.   

“Despite a renewed focus on healthy eating, the cold weather has taken its toll on Britons, as has a national outbreak of influenza.  January sales of over-the-counter painkillers rose 12%, while cough sweets and liquids increased by 17% as shoppers tried to tackle seasonal colds.”

Lidl once again was crowned the UK’s fastest-growing retailer.  The discounter experienced a market share increase of 0.5 percentage points and saw sales climb by 16.3% compared to this time last year.  Fraser McKevitt explains: “Traditionally focused on own-label lines, Lidl has actually seen fastest growth among its branded products, which are up by 28% and now account for 12% of all sales.  Not to be outdone, Aldi also increased sales by 16.2% to hold a market share of 6.9% – up 0.7 percentage points.  Aldi experienced particular success with its premium ‘Specially Selected’ range, which saw sales climb by £26 million.”

Although its market share fell by 0.3 percentage points to 27.8%, Tesco still remains the fastest growing of the big four, with sales up by 2.6%.  Despite shoppers increasingly opting for vegan options, such as the grocer’s new ‘Wicked Kitchen’ range, Tesco saw the greatest sales growth from its dairy and produce lines. 

Asda and Morrisons both experienced sales growth of 2.2%, though lost market share, each down 0.2 percentage points compared to this time last year.  Asda encouraged shoppers to add extra items to their baskets while customers made an additional five million trips to Morrisons compared to this time last year. 

An extra 311,000 shoppers chose to shop at Sainsbury’s, with shoppers particularly engaging with the supermarket’s Local convenience stores and online offer.  Sales at the grocer increased by 1.5% despite market share falling by 0.3 percentage points to 16.2%.  

Still feeling the effect of selling nearly 300 stores to McColls, Co-op’s market share dropped by 0.2 percentage points to stand at 5.8%, having experienced sales growth of -0.1%.  Waitrose grew overall sales by 1.5% but saw market share fall by 0.1 percentage points. 

Iceland experienced its 23rd period of consecutive growth – a run dating back to May 2016 – with sales up by 1.6%.  Amid the news that the supermarket plans to remove plastic from all its own-label products by 2023, Iceland held market share steady at 2.3%. 

Internet-only retailer Ocado continued its rapid sales growth – up 7.8% – to hold market share at 1.3%. 

**Kantar Worldpanel Usage panel, proportion of meat and fish free savoury evening meals.

The pursuit of healthy lunchtime meals
While consumers often seek practical options for lunches, the need for health at lunch time has grown by 5% year on year; the strongest growth of all meal times.  Sandwiches and salads are among the dishes being chosen for health reasons at lunchtime.

Ending the day on a healthy note
The evening meal has the highest proportion of servings chosen for health of all occasions - 31% of all servings are chosen for a health-related reason, and this increased 5% year on year. The rise in scratch cooking and a greater use of fresh ingredients have both contributed to the increasing importance of health at the evening meal.

The more needs the better
People are looking for more than just one type of ‘health’ these days, with consumers  citing 1.7 health reasons on average when they eat or drink. Consumers are moving away from restrictive forms of healthy eating such as calorie counting or portion control, and opting for more natural and less processed products that provide health benefits (such as fibre/vitamins), while trying to eat a varied diet.

(Healthy) convenience is king
Health is seeing the strongest growth in convenience meals (compared to cooking from scratch, assisted cooking, assembled meals, and takeaways). The number of products in this category - which includes ready meals and pizzas - consumed for health-related reasons has grown from 9% to 12% in two years. Whilst enjoyment and practicality remain the primary reasons for consumers choosing these products, it’s clear that we want more nutritional benefit from these foods than ever before.

As consumers’ need for health continues to grow, it is important for manufacturers to consider where their current and future propositions fit into the health spectrum. In particular, health at the lunch and/or evening meal, or products in the convenience category, are in strong growth and offer a potential focus area for some manufacturers. Furthermore, consumers are seeking even more benefits from the products they use, therefore products fulfilling multiple needs to consumers will be best placed to retain their relevance. 

Strong results in Spain and Germany, where iOS is nearing a quarter of the market, were also replicated in urban China, Japan and Australia thanks to the performance of Apple’s newest three handsets. 

The flagship iPhone X made it into the top three best-selling devices in the month of December across Europe, urban China, Japan, Australia and the United States.  iOS loyalty reached a new high in the US – of iPhone owners who changed device, 96% bought another model from Apple – though its sales share fell 0.5 percentage points to 43.9% in the country.   

Despite a strong performance by iOS across most markets, Android losses have to some extent been cushioned by the rapid fall of Windows, whose share now stands at under 1% in all markets except Italy.  

Read the full commentary and data.

The nation's favourite habit

It’s the most frequently purchased out of home product, with 3.6 billion cups of coffee purchased every year. Currently, the UK out of home coffee market is worth a staggering £6.2 billion and is rapidly growing. 70% of our coffee purchases out of home are taken to go.  That equates to spending of £4.3 billion – and 2.5 billion non-recyclable cups used a year.  Adding the 25p “latte levy” to these purchases could generate a further £630 million a year.  

So how will this affect consumer behaviour?

The 25p “latte levy” would increase the average price of a cup of coffee from £1.71 to £1.96. At this point, some 1.1m shoppers would be at risk of dropping out of the market. This could potentially stunt a fast-growing market and in the long-run shrink the coffee market by 0.9%. However, some retailers such as Starbucks and Costa Coffee have already started to offer discounts to shoppers with reusable cups, a move that may mitigate against potential shopper losses.

For further information on our Out Of Home service, please get in touch.

But why have we now decided to try a diet which until recently would have seemed restrictive or even unhealthy – even for a month? A look at consumer behaviour over recent years shows that taking the plunge for Veganuary might not be such a stretch for consumers after all, and for many could be a natural result of changing attitudes towards our health.

Veg and two veg

Insight from our Usage panel shows that consumers are already increasingly choosing to eat meat-free dinners, potentially making the jump to veganism less daunting. 29% of our evening meals are veggie, and this has grown consistently over the past few years. The biggest spike has been over the past year, during which we ate an additional 200m meat-free evening meals.

Usage expert Richard Allen explains “The surge in vegetarian evening meals over the past year is down to the wider availability of products which make eating meat-free more attractive and practical. Our ideas about what’s healthy are also changing – we’re more focussed on foods that are natural and less processed and eating a varied diet. High profile celebrities and social media influencers are also raising awareness and promoting eating less or no meat as a healthy lifestyle choice.”

Again, according to our consumption service, entirely vegan-friendly meals* are also already on the rise – we ate 87m more of them over the last year than in 2015.

Dairy-free dairy, meat free meat

The impact of these changes can also be seen in the products we're putting in our baskets. Meat-free products, like Quorn meat substitutes, are growing strongly, with shoppers spending an additional £30m on these year-on-year. 50% of spend on meat-free is going on "meal centres" like sausages and burgers - showing we're increasingly putting these at the heart of our meals.

"Free from” milk and cheese are in double digit growth, and attracting new shoppers. Free from milk is up 10% year on year, and dairy alternative cheese has grown an incredible 80% over the same period, putting its value at £17.8m**.

Rachel Knight, consumer insight director, added: “Not only are we seeing more people buying free-from dairy products, those who do are picking them up more often, suggesting they are becoming more of a staple in shoppers’ baskets and a trend that’s here to stay.”

As we reported last year, “free from”  ranges are being bought by a wide cross section of shoppers – not just those on particular diets -  as they’re seen as a healthier choice.

Meating in the middle

But as ever, when looking across the whole population, no one story fits all, and the rise of vegan and vegetarian diets does not necessarily mean consumers are moving away from meat overall.

In fact, fresh meat and poultry had a strong year in 2017, with the volume sold growing faster than can be explained by population growth (1.8% vs c1%).

Nathan Ward, business unit director for meat, fish and poultry, argues therefore that talk of us abandoning meat altogether is premature: “One dynamic we’re seeing is that shoppers are trying to find ways to cope with rising prices and falling promotions. A jacket potato and beans might be an easy (and vegetarian) midweek dinner, but consumers may also be motivated by other factors such as saving money.”

*lunch/teatime/evening meal
**Kantar Worldpanel Data: to 31^st December 2017

A strong start

Dairy enters 2018 in a strong position. It's the most frequently shopped grocery category, purchased by each UK household 116 times per year. It's outperforming much of the grocery market - and contributing strongly to overall growth; for every pound of growth, 12 pence has come from dairy. It’s also a category where shoppers are trading up to premium offerings, whether that is switching from standard to added value milk or moving away from dairy spreads to more expensive spreadable and block butter

Challenges (and opportunities) ahead

However, changing consumption needs and behaviours pose a challenge for the market. Health is increasingly significant for consumers, and categories that can deliver positive health benefits (added vitamins, protein etc.) or that are viewed as more natural and less processed are likely to make the most of this dynamic. Attitudes towards dairy have changed over time as consumers' perceptions around health have evolved, but this doesn't have to be a negative for the category. For example, butter is now more likely to be eaten for health reasons than dairy spreads - as shoppers prioritise natural products over low fat.

Another challenge to the sector is changes in our diets and weekly routines. Some 95% of the time we consume dairy it's with other food or drink - like our afternoon cup of tea or morning cereal. If the decline in consumption of tea continues at the current rate, for example, it’s possible that £250m could be lost from the milk market over the next five years.

To remain at the heart of our shopping trips, dairy producers will need to ensure they're responsive to these changing consumer needs.

1) Shopping behaviour will  be dictated by need rather than season

In the past, we've tended to spread our fashion spend evenly throughout the year. But our spending patterns are increasingly erratic; we're now hitting the shops when the weather demands rather than in anticipation. Retailers need to adapt, as unpredictable weather and this trend for only buying things when we need to both look set to continue into 2018. Ranging and instore merchandising needs to reflect the actual weather and customer needs, not the season.

2) Purchases that can be linked to experiences will be key

More of us are going on holiday, more often as we increasingly choose to spend our money on experiences, not products. This means there's a shift away from shopping during the ‘traditional’ holiday period. Retailers that can make the link between their ranges and the experiences we're looking for will be best placed to take advantage of this dynamic.

3) Consumers will become even more demanding

Falling levels of disposable income, inflation and modest price increases in the fashion market have made shoppers more aware of their spending. Consequently we're becoming even more demanding and expect the best experience and service in-store. That said, catering for the more demanding can be the key to significant revenue for retailers. Aiming for best in class service will satisfy the toughest to please and unlock increased spend.

Hear more from our fashion expert, Glen Tooke in his Retail Week column on how fashion retailers can learn from the grocers when it comes to responding to what consumers want.

The category contributing the most to dairy growth compared with last period is milk, growing +£38m in the last 12 weeks (up from +£23 the previous period). This is followed by cheese, with the festive staple seeing growth worth £42m – up £9m on last period. Milk’s performance is driven by rising prices in the category, and shoppers buying more often. Standard fresh milk drove the most growth, but all subcategories are seeing value going in the right direction.

Growth in dairy overall, and milk specifically, is seen across all retailers. Tesco, the fastest growing of the Big Four supermarkets, also made the biggest contribution to dairy growth - ringing up an additional £10m spend in dairy and £4m in milk. Morrisons also doubled its uplift in dairy over the last 12 weeks, with Lidl nearly achieving the same in milk.

In net terms dairy continues to grow solely through sales not on promotion – though the rate of decline of TPR deals has started to slow. Milk, on the other hand, does see some growth through lines sold on Y for £X deals, but the uplift on last period has come primarily through full price sales, reflecting the fact that standard fresh milk is driving growth.

Finally, growth within dairy is seen throughout shoppers in all life stages and social classes, though Class AB and C1, young families and retired shoppers drive this the most.

These figures show Christmas was the biggest ever, with value and volume both in growth in the Meat, Fish and Poultry (MFP) market. On a 12 week basis, fresh primary meat and poultry grew, but the real winner was fresh processed meat and poultry, with all categories showing strong value and volume growth. Conversely, sliced cooked meats and chilled fish both struggled in volume terms, but increased value sales compared to last year. We didn’t see inflation putting a dampener on the category as some commentators feared, with premium products growing this Christmas and an additional £1bn grocery spend ringing through the tills over the Christmas period.

MFP reflected many of the overall trends this Christmas, particularly the push for premium, which helped to deliver the biggest Christmas ever for the sector. Nathan Ward, Business Unit Director for MFP, explains: “Christmas is one of the most important periods of the year for producers and retailers, with great rewards for hitting the right deals and prices. Shoppers traditionally trade up at Christmas, whether through their choice of retailer or by choosing more premium products. Turkey performed well over the Christmas period; even after a strong 2016, 184,000 more shopping trips included turkey this year and the average trip cost 40p more. Whole birds and crowns enjoyed growth on last year as shoppers continued to pick up the classic choice for Christmas dinner.”

On a wider view, the strong performance of pork continues, with volume and value growing ahead of the market. Fresh pork is one of the top 10 markets in grocery being affected by inflation, with volume growing behind strong value figures. Growth is being driven by shoppers taking 1.75 million more trips, with steaks, leg joints and mince driving volume growth. Fresh Chicken continues to be one of the strongest deflationary markets with falling prices in breast, legs and whole Birds bringing average prices down by 3%.

Ward continues: “When we focus on the last four weeks of the year for Christmas, primary MFP growth accelerated compared to last year. Beef and lamb growth rates were significantly ahead of the 12 week figures and turkey growth accelerated in the run up to the festivities. As you might expect, the traditional 'Christmas Dinner' categories fared well, with turkey and other poultry (dominated by duck) seeing double digit growth in the 4 week period.” On the processed side of the market, we saw bacon (+4.7%) and sausages (+6.0%) both continued to grow, with the Christmas weeks providing a boost to both value and volume. We know that this is driven by people being likely to add them as extras to their Christmas dinner or eat more cooked breakfasts over the long Christmas weekends.

Chilled fish has continued to suffer in volume terms over Christmas, and the 12 week figures reflect a stark volume decline. However, the 4 week data shows a stronger story. When we look at the categories driving the decline we can see that added value has moved into value and volume decline as rising prices impact the market. Natural fish remains the largest category, with strong value growth masking the falling volumes in the market. Shellfish and smoked fish are seeing steep volume declines. December is traditionally a month of higher sales for smoked salmon, and this year was no different; value was up, but volumes were still slightly down in the face of higher prices driven by inflation this year.

We’ve seen some big changes to the market as inflation and Brexit fears prompted suppliers, processors and retailers to change course.

Shoppers too, don't operate in a bubble, and are making choices to cope with the uncertainty in the market and rising costs in grocery and beyond.

In this edition of the newsletter, we focus on how to make the most of calendar events, inflation and the continued march of online retail.

As ever, get in touch for more information or with your thoughts and comments on the newsletter.

Fraser McKevitt, head of retail and consumer insight at Kantar Worldpanel, comments: “Overall supermarket sales increased in value by 3.8%, with an additional £1 billion ringing through the tills compared to the same festive period last year. Shoppers parted with £747 million on 22 December alone, making the Friday before Christmas the busiest shopping day ever recorded. For most of the year, location tends to be the most important factor in choosing where to shop, but over Christmas customers are actually prepared to travel further in search of specific festive products or better value.”**

Mince pie sales rose by 13.2% year on year, washed down with £3.9 billion worth of alcohol over the 12 weeks.  Alcohol sales grew by 5.1% year on year, with spirits leading the charge: up 7.6% as consumers favoured festive tipples featuring gin and whisky.  Fraser McKevitt continues: “Shoppers are splashing out despite fewer promotions to tempt them.  Only 36% of spending was on items on offer this year – the lowest level of promotional activity at Christmas since 2009.  Consumers are still facing more expensive groceries: like for like prices rose by 3.7% in the 12 weeks to 31 December, a slight increase on the 3.6% rise reported last month.”

Aldi and Lidl jointly the fastest growing UK supermarkets

Among the retailers, Aldi and Lidl are level pegging in the battle to be the nation’s fastest growing supermarket, both growing sales by 16.8% year on year.  Fraser McKevitt explains: “In some ways Christmas is a tricky time for the discounters: they tend to lose a little market share compared to earlier in the year as many shoppers return to the more traditional supermarkets in search of old favourites.  Rising to the challenge, Aldi and Lidl collectively managed to attract nearly one million additional households during the past three months.  Aldi increased market share by 0.8 percentage points year on year to capture 6.8% of the market, with 39% of trips including at least one product from its premium Specially Selected range.  Meanwhile, Lidl grew market share by 0.6 percentage points to stand at 5.0%, helped by a 22% sales increase in the dairy aisle and a £23 million boost from fresh produce.”

Tesco was the fastest growing of the big four supermarkets, with sales up 3.1% during the past 12 weeks.  This is the fastest sales growth the retailer has seen since June, helped by a 6.4% increase in sales of standard Tesco own label.  With Christmas Day falling on a Monday this year, Tesco Express, like other convenience stores, benefitted from restricted Sunday opening hours for larger supermarkets and were able to capitalise on consumers preferring to shop closer to home immediately before the big day.  Despite a successful festive period, Tesco is still growing behind the market with a 0.2 percentage point fall in market share to 28.0%. 

Meanwhile, Asda’s sales grew by 2.2%. This was particularly helped by a strong online performance which saw the retailer’s average shopping basket increase to just over 16 items.  Despite this, the grocer’s market share declined by 0.2 percentage points to 15.3%. 

Biggest ever online Christmas, sales up by 4.9%

Morrisons increased sales by 2.1% – with strongest growth coming from ambient and frozen foods – though the grocer’s market share fell by 0.2 percentage points to 10.7%. Sainsbury’s managed to increase sales across its convenience stores, larger supermarkets and online deliveries, growing overall by 2.0%.  This is against the backdrop of the retailer’s continuing strategy of moving away from promotions, selling 5.6% fewer items on offer than during the same period last year.  Sainsbury’s market share fell by 0.3 percentage points to 16.4%.

Sales at Waitrose increased by 2.3%, but fell by 0.2% at Co-op, as the retailers captured 5.2% and 5.8% of the market respectively. Iceland grew sales by 2.9%.  Supported by a 7% boost for own label sales, more than half of the increase came from products beyond the retailer’s traditional frozen lines. 

Overall online supermarket sales enjoyed their biggest ever Christmas: up 4.9% year on year.  Ocado comfortably outpaced the online market, increasing sales by 8.4% to account for 1.3% of the grocery market.

** Data from our the new Worldpanel Plus service, where over 6,000 continuous Shoppix users were asked what would make them choose a different store to normal over Christmas – questionnaire fielded over one week from 20^th Dec ‘17.

Watch the video

Join the conversation on Twitter and LinkedIn using the hashtag #FindingNewShoppers and do not hesitate to get in touch if you would like to know more.

We wish you lots of new shoppers for a happy and successful 2018!

Using Worldpanel Plus - our brand new service that harnesses smartphones to fully understand the motives behind any shopping trip - our Christmas gifting report unwraps fresh insight that puts gifting into context:

• What gifts do we buy for whom?
• When do we do our shopping?
• What is the most popular gifting category?
• Which retailers are 'winning’ Christmas?

Read a snapshot of the report today, which gives a preview of the findings with data up to 24 November 2017.

The full online report is updated weekly with fresh data, bringing you faster insights right when you need them. Get in touch to discuss how you can take advantage of this new level of insight.

Pork, chicken and other red meat are the only primary categories seeing volume growth this period. Pork remains the star performer in both value and volume terms, and while growth is slower now than it was in our last update, it is still growing well ahead of the market. Inflation continues to affect the primary MFP categories more than the processed markets, which are all growing in volume and seeing lower inflation levels. Consumers are responding to rising prices with a mixture of trading down and different choices about the markets, proteins and cuts they buy.

Nathan Ward, Business Unit Director for MFP, explains: “The growth of pork is the main story in primary meat, having moved away long term decline to three consecutive periods of growth. This has been fuelled by 2.1 million more trips than last year as 290,000 more shoppers buy the protein. As a result we see strong growth despite prices rising 7.4% over the period. Mince is performing strongly with volume up 29%, followed by leg joints (+22%) and diced or cubed pork (+20%) as the AHDB ‘midweek meal’ campaign continues to raise awareness and put pork front of mind for consumers.”

Ward continues: “Fresh processed meat and poultry are the categories showing the strongest growth at the moment, benefitting from an increase in Y for £X deals and meal deals. Processed poultry sees the fastest value and volume growth, adding 6.6m more trips this year as promotional volumes rise 12% - giving shoppers a choice to make at the fixture. Growth is being driven by those aged 55 and over, empty nester and retired shoppers, showing the convenience trend extends to all age groups.

Chilled fish continues to see the effects of inflation, with volume down 6.5% overall and value declining 1.3%, as shoppers make 5.3 million fewer trips to the category. Promotional support for the category is down, with 19% less volume sold on deal, as retailers use fewer Temporary Price Reductions (TPRs).

Salmon continues to be the species most affected by inflation and is driving volume losses for the category, particularly from natural, smoked and added value lines. Prices are up 13% (or £1.84 per kilo) – resulting in 4 million fewer shoppers taking trips which include salmon compared to last year. Until last month, added value salmon lines were the star performers in chilled fish, with solid promotional share seeing them take share from natural and smoked products. In this latest period, however, the market has constricted rapidly with volume down almost 7% as shoppers make 2.1m fewer trips to the category, and attracting 450,000 fewer shoppers compared to last year. Promotions are an element in this – having declined by 7.7%, but prices haven’t risen, with price per kg actually down by 0.4%. In added value, the decline in the core market of ABs and post family shopper is a factor to watch.

The Christmas season is now truly in swing, with all the meat and trimmings appearing on shelves in store – but will the inflation we are seeing put a dampener on festivities? Having looked back at Christmas 2016, it looks like the push for convenience and value will still be important this year, but shoppers will continue to trade up for special meals, particularly around the trimmings and additions to make a good meal a great meal! We’ve already seen a retailers focus on premium products and expect shoppers to invest in a great Christmas experience despite the inflationary pressures they are feeling.

This is never more true than for health and beauty, which is the second biggest gifting category after toys and games.

In the UK, the average shopper spends an incredible 25% of their annual spend on health and beauty in the run up to Christmas and one in five of all shopping trips happens during the weeks leading up to 25 December. 

All this adds up to our purchases during Christmas accounting for a quarter of all health and beauty sales annually, with the tills ringing up an incredible £1.88bn over the festive period.

Lip gloss, manicure products and fragrances and body sprays see the biggest uplift at Christmas when comapred with the rest of the year. But gift packs only make up around a quarter of our spend on beauty gifts. Most (54%) goes on premium fragrances, which are a key gifting category - particularly for men, who make up 55% of people buying fragrances as gifts.

Get in touch for more information about how our personal care service can help put your brand top of shoppers' minds during the all imprortant season.

In our latest edition of The Greengrocer, we look how these major trends are filtering down to the produce aisle, looking at some categories which are flourishing in this new environment, and some which are ripe for innovation.

Get in touch if you have any thoughts or feedback.

Fraser McKevitt, head of retail and consumer insight at Kantar Worldpanel, comments: “With Christmas just around the corner, prices are still rising. Like-for-like grocery inflation now stands at 3.6% – it’s highest level since 2013.

“Despite higher prices the British public is well into the swing of festive shopping. Alcohol sales are up by nearly £172 million compared to this time last year and while volume sales have increased, this impressive growth is mainly a result of consumers choosing more expensive festive tipples. Gin, whisky and sparkling wine all saw significant growth: up by 26%, 10% and 7% respectively as shoppers pushed the boat out. Still small but growing rapidly, non-alcoholic beer is the new kid on the block this Christmas – growing sales by 27% during the past 12 weeks.”

Aldi reclaimed its crown as Britain’s fastest growing grocer during the latest quarter, with sales up 15.1% year on year. Fraser McKevitt continues: “This performance places the retailer marginally ahead of Lidl, which grew sales by 14.5% during the past 12 weeks. Aldi saw notable successes in the chilled aisle, increasing sales of convenience products like ready meals and desserts by an impressive 40% year on year.

“Aldi’s Specially Selected line was the UK’s fastest growing premium own label brand during the past 12 weeks, enjoying a healthy sales increase of 25%. Meanwhile Lidl’s market share increased by 0.5 percentage points to stand at 5.1%. This was helped by a strong performance from well-known brands, which currently account for 11% of the retailer’s sales.”

The biggest four grocers saw collective growth of 1.9% during the past 12 weeks, making this the ninth consecutive period of increasing sales for the UK’s largest retailers. Tesco – with sales up 2.5% compared to this time last year – was the fastest growing of the four.

Despite its market share falling by 0.1 percentage points to 28.2%, Tesco remains Britain’s most-visited retailer – welcoming 21 million households during the latest quarter.

Sainsbury’s grew sales by 2.0% year on year, with its market share falling to 16.3%. Meanwhile Morrisons’ market share fell to 10.6%, despite a sales boost of 1.4% year on year. Sales also grew at Asda – up 1.2% – with market share down by 0.3 percentage points.

Waitrose and Iceland both increased sales, up by 1.6% and 1.3% respectively. Co-op’s sales fell by 1.5%, taking market share down 0.3 percentage points to 6.0%.”

As the snowy weather turns the nation’s thoughts to mince pies and turkey, the supermarkets are now also fully focused on the critical Christmas trading season. Fraser McKevitt explains: “Christmas day falls on a Monday this year – last time that happened, in 2006, the Friday before was the most popular day for grocery shopping that year. If we see a similar pattern in 2017, Friday 22 December is likely to win out as the grocers enjoy not only the biggest shopping day of 2017, but the most successful ever recorded. Over Friday 22 and Saturday 23 December, we expect shoppers to part with an eye-watering £1.5 billion as they fill their trollies ahead of Christmas day.”

Although online grocery sales growth has slowed considerably to just 2.8% during the past 12 weeks, it is still likely to be a record December for grocery e-commerce. Internet specialist Ocado grew ahead of the online market during the latest quarter. Sales were up by 5.2% as market share remained flat year on year at 1.3%.

Furthermore, rising ingredient costs, price inflation and currency fluctuations are all contributing towards a more challenging competitive environment both at home and internationally. For shoppers this too has meant that their food and drink bills have started to rise.

Our first ever ranking of the Top 20 Food and Drink brands in Scotland reflects on what these changes mean for brands, which had dominated in Scotland until this year when sales of own label products exceeded branded sales for the first time.

The presence of retailer brands in our basket has become more common, with all of the retailers using their own label ranges to create that point of difference and give shoppers choice and a reason to shop in their stores. With own label playing a greater role in shopper’s repertoires, the market has been challenging for brands with only 12 of the top 20 brands in Scotland seeing growth. 

Changing consumer tastes, health, a desire for easy to cook and convenient meals look set to continue to drive innovation.

Brands need to be ready to seize these opportunities.

Nathan Ward, Business Unit Director for MFP explains: “The star performer in primary meat is pork. Having spent much of the last few years commenting on the decline of pork it’s great to see its renaissance! Pork has seen 290,000 more shoppers than last year, but the real driver of the growth is shoppers engaging with the category more often, picking it up on 2.1 million more trips this year. Inflation is hitting the category, with average prices up 7.4%, and inflation is compounded by promotions falling - down 28% on last year. The AHDB "Pork midweek meal” campaign has helped to raise awareness and put pork front of mind for consumers, whilst the comparatively good value of the protein has helped drive volume. The big winners for pork are mince, marinated lines and frying/grilling which are all seeing value and volume growth.”

Ward continues: “Chilled fish is also seeing the effects of inflation, but with much more negative effects than for pork, and this period we see suppressed volumes have tipped the category into value decline. Chilled fish is seeing almost 100,000 fewer shoppers compared to last year, and is losing out as shoppers move their baskets to other proteins and meals. Additionally there’s been 4.5m fewer trips including chilled fish compared to the same period last year, heavily impacting volumes. Natural and smoked fish are the biggest contributors to the losses, losing 3.1m and 2.2m respectively. Like for like inflation remains high in these two categories and prices are up significantly; natural fish increases by £1.86 per kilo (15.4%) on average, and smoked fish sees an increase of £1.28 per kilo (9%). These increased prices are pushing consumers to reconsider what products they’re buying from the category, with salmon seeing the largest volume losses. Added value products have tipped into value and volume decline this period, with salmon – again - a key driver of the change in performance.”

The Christmas season has begun in earnest and we’ve seen a flurry of festive adverts in recent weeks, with the Christmas dinner front and centre in some cases. We are expecting a good Christmas for the category, and our head of retail and consumer insight, Fraser McKevitt, was recently quoted saying: “The British public is expected to shell out a whopping £28.7 billion at the grocers in the final 12 weeks of 2017.” We all know how important Christmas is to the MFP markets and are already seeing the push for Christmas beginning in store. Retailers are putting focus on premium products and we expect shoppers to invest in a great Christmas experience despite the inflationary pressures they are feeling. Join us for our next update where we’ll report on the all-important lead up to Christmas.

Fraser McKevitt, head of retail and consumer insight at Kantar Worldpanel, comments: “The UK is well ahead of its European counterparts in e-commerce, but the levels of growth we’ve seen in recent years won’t necessarily be sustainable. Saying that, online sales have been an important source of growth at a time when bricks and mortar grocery sales have fallen by 1.0%.

“E-commerce retailers are bound by the limitations of the current delivery model. Home delivery is the norm for the British consumer, even more so since the growth in popularity of services like Deliveroo. However, this is an expensive option for retailers, and substantial delivery costs are an obstacle to completing orders at the quick turnaround shoppers demand. This hasn’t stopped retailers innovating to find new ways of satisfying this ‘right here, right now’ mindset, such as one-hour delivery from the likes of Tesco and Sainsbury’s, or Amazon’s up-front Prime Now subscription model.”

Kantar Worldpanel predicts that online’s share of the UK grocery market will climb from 7.5% today to 12% by 2025, though the profile of the average online shopper is likely to look very similar in five years as it does today.

Fraser McKevitt continues: “New e-commerce consumers have a positive effect on the FMCG market in the short term, cumulatively spending more on and offline in their first year of online shopping that they did the previous year. However, by their second year of online shopping consumers tend to moderate their budget and year-on-year growth falls back in line with the market average.

“In the longer term, a shift to online is presenting a real challenge for the overall FMCG market. Online, shopping lists are repeated from trip to trip, meaning opportunities for unplanned purchases are quashed. Brands and retailers should focus on how to generate more impulse buys online. The growth of voice recognition technology, such as Amazon’s Alexa, could be one solution, as it allows consumers to make real-time, spontaneous decisions with few barriers to purchase.”

Fraser McKevitt, head of retail and consumer insight at Kantar Worldpanel, explains: “Volume sales have increased by less than 1%, meaning it’s price rises keeping supermarket performance buoyant. Like-for-like grocery inflation now stands at 3.4% – its highest level since November 2013. With the average shop currently costing £18.26, consumers are now paying an extra 62 pence each time and over the course of a year it could add £143.70 to a typical family’s grocery bill.”

The Christmas season has begun in earnest for UK retailers, marked by a flurry of festive adverts in recent weeks, accompanied by inventive product tie ups as grocers look to capitalise on their chosen themes. Fraser McKevitt continues: “Consumers have already been digging deep in preparation for the holiday season, buying 10.1 million packs of traditional Christmas biscuits in October alone.

Alcohol sales have ramped up too, increasing by 5.3% year on year as shoppers parted with an extra £142 million on their favourite tipples. The British public is only just getting started when it comes to Christmas shopping, and is expected to shell out a whopping £28.7 billion at the grocers in the final 12 weeks of 2017.”

Lidl is Britain’s fastest growing supermarket for the fifth consecutive period, with sales up 15.1%. New store openings – and the opportunity they bring to attract new shoppers – have contributed to the impressive performance. Some 10.6 million households visited Lidl at least once during the past three months, boosting the grocer’s market share by 0.5 percentage points to 5.1%. Sales at Aldi – which attracted 11.9 million households during the same period – increased by 13.1%, advancing the retailer’s market share to 6.7%.

Meanwhile Sainsbury’s grew sales by 2.6%, attracting an additional 364,000 shoppers to become the fastest growing among the big four for the first time since April 2016. Fraser McKevitt explains: “Brands were the fastest-selling products at Sainsbury’s during the past 12 weeks – particularly in soft drinks and dairy – flying in the face of the market’s focus on own-label lines. The grocer’s strongest growth came from both its Local convenience stores and online sales. Despite a positive quarter, Sainsbury’s market share fell back by 0.1 percentage points year on year to stand at 16.2%.”

Tesco welcomed 76% of British households during the past 12 weeks, growing sales by 2.3% as its market share dipped to 28.0%: down 0.2 percentage points on last year. Morrisons saw sales increase by 2.1%, accompanied by a marginal fall in share – from 10.5% last year to 10.4% during the latest quarter.

Fraser McKevitt continues: “Asda has enjoyed its eighth consecutive period of growth – the longest run of sales increases the retailer has seen since March 2014. Both cheaper and more premium own label lines delivered an impressive performance to help increase overall sales by 1.5% year on year. Asda’s budget Farm Stores range grew by 88%, while sales of its Extra Special line were up 22%. The grocer will be looking to build on this growth over Christmas and well into the new year.”

Sales at Iceland increased by 1.1%, with share falling slightly to 2.0% – down from 2.1% last year. Nearly half of the retailer’s growth came from categories outside its core frozen ranges, such as alcohol, which grew by 23% thanks to increased listings of wine, lager and cider.

Fraser McKevitt continues: “Amid news that Nisa’s shareholders have backed Co-op’s takeover of the group, there is plenty of room for growth: convenience stores in all their forms currently account for 12.1% of grocery sales. Nearly 60% of UK households currently visit this type of retailer, spending £3.2 billion in smaller stores during the past 12 weeks. Co-op is already the nation’s most frequently visited grocer – shoppers pop in almost twice a week on average – despite having seen sales fall by 1.5% compared to the same period last year.”

Waitrose held market share steady year on year at 5.3%, seeing sales growth across the board: from convenience stores, larger supermarkets and online. Internet specialist Ocado increased sales by 6.8%, growing ahead of the overall online grocery market.

The end of some Brittish classics?

One striking trend is that some sterotypically "British" foods and drinks are waning, starting with the good old cuppa. We are drinking 174 swimming pools less tea than last year, and for the first time we are drinking more cold drinks than hot drinks.

Another British staple, the roast dinner is also seeing a marked effect. We are now having over 20% fewer roast dinners than we were 5 years ago.

That said, we still love sandwiches, and you’d need over 66 thousand Wembley stadiums to fit all the sandwiches consumed in Britain in a year.

And despite the return of Great British Bake Off to our screens this year, we're baking less - the number of times we put on a pinny is down by 23% since 2014. 

Healthy appetite

Our attitudes to our health are changing so is our perception of the healthiness of different foods - in often surprising ways. For example we're now more likely to choose butter than magarine for health reasons and it's more important to us that we choose food and drinks that are “natural” than lower in fat, salt or sugar.

And, in good news for dentists around the country, we're eating fewer desserts: 517m fewer than in 2014. 

Meat-free marches on

Related to changing ideas around health is the rise of people adopting a meat free diet, or eating meat less often. Some 4.7% of us are now vegetarian compared to 4.5% in 2013. And we're eating more protein-free evening meals, 113m fewer than in 2014.

About our Usage service

We believe that only if you understand how your product is used will you truly understand how to market to consumers. Kantar Worldpanel has over 30 years’ experience and expertise in Usage Panels giving us knowledge of how fast moving consumer goods are used, when and by whom they are consumed and even what other products were used in the same occasion. 

For more information, get in touch.

Butter is contributing most to the growth of the sector, gaining £29.5 million in value - up from £24 million last period. This continues to come almost completely through increasing prices, a long term and much reported trend. There also positive step changes in cheese, cream and margarine.

When we look at retailers, it has been a very positive 12 weeks for the 'Big 4' which are responsible for almost all the positive upturn, although Waitrose sees an improvement to their under trade, and Iceland a nominal increase. A number of retailers take the spoils of the growth seen in butter this period – notably Tesco and Morrisons with Sainsbury’s and Waitrose not far behind.

The growth in butter has been seen across all social classes and life stages except young families, who instead are switching to margarine in response to rising butter prices.

Finally all of butter’s positive uplift has come through full price sales, with promoted sales contributing less to growth. Despite this being in line with the general trend towards price simplicity in the overall grocery market, it’s contradictory to the trend in dairy this period - where full price sales are in decline and growth comes through the long term decline in promotions being stemmed.

The average number of children in a household has declined steadily to just 1.38, and the days of the stereotypically large Irish family are fading fast. They’re also shopping differently; families are making 23 more shopping trips a year than they were five years ago and are increasingly seeking refuge behind a laptop screen – spending an incredible €107 million on online grocery shopping over the past year.

Understanding how this changing family unit shops, how they eat and their attitudes to food and drink is vital for brands and retailers alike.

In our latest paper, Thoughts On: The Irish Family, we delve into how brands and retailers can take advantage of the significant spend by families.

Visit our publications page to download a copy of the report.

"Halloween continues to bring thrills for retailers. The four weeks leading up to Halloween 2016 brought an incremental £121million to the Total grocery market.

Spooky Brits spent an additional £96million on confectionary and a further £19million on goods from the bakery aisle in the lead up to Halloween. Pumpkins also had their seasonal peak, with sales adding £5million to the grocery market.
M&S successfully capitalised upon the nation’s festive sweet tooth, with confectionary sales up +22% compared with the previous year, contributing to sales increasing by 6.8% compared with the previous year.

However, winning at Halloween isn’t simply about treats. Offering a wider range of products, including fancy dress costumes, meal ideas and baking recipes, helped Tesco become the Big 4 winner (with sales up +4%).

Overall, the Big 4 struggled, gaining a lower share of grocery spend over the four weeks leading up to Halloween. Bargain stores were the beneficiary, with Lidl and Poundland enticing customers in with their everyday low price offering. Interestingly, it was the lowest affluent social classes having the highest over index on Halloween spend vs total grocery.

When it comes to shopping, the two weeks prior to Halloween generated the highest spend. Shoppers made specific trips, especially to Tesco and M&S, to purchase festive items. Furthermore, weekend shopping became even more important than usual, taking 32% of the total weekly spend (vs. 30% in an average week).

Halloween continues to firmly be a family-centric event. Families with children increase their grocery spend the most during the run up to Halloween, while multi-occupancy households (2 or more members) account for 74% of spend. Households without children however should not be forgotten, as adult celebrations and grandparents buying for others contribute to the overall Halloween spend.

With shoppers doing more trips specifically for Halloween, we can expect to see more retailers creating one-stop Halloween shops including wider product ranges, covering children’s fancy-dress costumes – looking to draw in those valuable households with children.

Furthermore, Halloween themed instore cooking or baking ideas encourages more items into the shoppers’ baskets. Finally, with Halloween falling on a Tuesday this year, the two weekends prior can be expected to be of the highest value – with shoppers purchasing last minute festive fun."

Olivia Moore, analyst at Kantar Worldpanel, explains: “It’s been a great quarter for games – a real bright spot in the physical market’s struggle against the rise of digital. Helped by the release of much-anticipated title Destiny, mint games – as opposed to second hand – have led the charge.

“The market will now be looking to build on its success in the run up to Christmas, and consoles will have a vital part to play. Early signs are promising, with 850,000 consumers looking to pick up either the Nintendo Switch or Xbox One X in the run up to the festive season. Argos and Amazon benefited most from the gaming revival, continuing to nip at the heels of market leader GAME.”

Amazon remains the largest retailer for physical entertainment, growing share by 0.3 percentage points year on year to hold 20.8% of the market. Meanwhile HMV made the biggest gains: increasing market share by 2.3 percentage points to stand at 18.1%. Olivia Moore explains: “Already the top seller of music, the past quarter has seen HMV leapfrog Amazon to become number one for sales of physical video too. The retailer increased its share of the video market with the help of a strong performance in new film releases – up 6.0 percentage points to stand at 22.5% – while Amazon’s share remained flat at 20.2%.”

Beauty and the Beast, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 and Logan were the top video performers of the quarter, while NOW 97 dominated in music. Olivia Moore continues: “Blu-ray continues to outperform DVD as consumers become more willing to spend more for higher quality content, although its share of the market remains smaller. Blu-ray saw 15,000 new shoppers during the latest quarter, with film fans also purchasing the format more frequently on average.

“In further good news for the video category, digital purchasing nudged the total transactional market – as opposed to streaming or subscription – into 4% growth, offsetting continuing declines in physical transactional sales. This is the best performance we’ve seen for several years. Driven by popular new releases, transactional digital welcomed 600,000 new shoppers in the past 12 weeks, suggesting the sector is making some headway in its battle against declining disc sales and the rise of subscription services.”

Despite recent stories about the poultry supply chain, we have not seen a huge impact as both primary and processed poultry are in growth. In primary chicken, this has been aided by increased promotional support (up 21%) which has helped to keep prices down and give a great value proposition. Chicken breasts are seeing volume growth of 5.4%, driven by an additional 380,000 shoppers, and prices down 1.7% in the latest 12 weeks. Whole birds are also seeing faster growth at 6.9% as prices fall by 4.1%, attracting 550,000 more shoppers over the period. Fresh processed poultry growth continues, driven by 6.9m more trips and 470,000 more shoppers buying into the quick, tasty and easy meals this offers.

We are quickly approaching the Christmas rush, with seasonal offerings hitting the store next to Halloween products. With all of the inflationary pressure in proteins will we see shoppers invest in having a great Christmas for everyone, or will we see the pressure on purses result in a more frugal feast for families?

Glen Tooke, consumer insight director at Kantar Worldpanel, explains: “For years we’ve seen heavy discounting and this created an atmosphere of mistrust: consumers felt clothing wasn’t worth its full price. Retailers have made a significant effort to address this by focusing on getting the value right from the off and as a result shoppers have more confidence in buying at the original price.

“There’s also been an increasing trend for transitional pieces like two-in-one jackets which are relevant for longer and so don’t need discounting as soon as the weather turns. Retailers are finally recognising that most shoppers aren’t after what’s ‘in season’ – partly because trends so often bear little relation to the British weather – and larger ranges and a more flexible approach to stock control are helping to break this cycle.”

Kantar Worldpanel’s latest figures show that fashion items sold at full price are now driving market growth – up 2.0% year on year. Full price sales have contributed an additional £483 million to the market since this time last year, while discounting is down 2.7% during the same period with 98 million fewer units sold on promotion.

Glen Tooke continues: “The market’s return to growth is welcome news but the industry mustn’t be complacent.  The 0.2% increase in sales is worth only £66 million and though it’s likely to continue improving with Christmas around the corner, retailers and brands will need to be proactive to guarantee growth in the long term.  Consumers may be buying more every time they shop, but at the same time they’re shopping less frequently – making two fewer visits per year on average compared to 2015

“For some time, retailers have been investing in improving the shopping experience – tapping into the trend for more experiential purchases with messaging around how fashion can contribute to a great night out or holiday.  They’ve also added cafés to make shopping more social; spaces which encourage personalisation and creativity; and new technology to add excitement to stores.  However, as consumers’ appetite for innovation grows, retailers need to keep thinking of new ways to stand out from the crowd.

“Ahead of Christmas there’s still Black Friday on the horizon.  In 2016 Black Friday fashion sales declined by 16% year on year as many retailers actively rejected the initiative, and the industry must be careful not to fall back into a pattern of discounting for discounting’s sake if it wants to see growth continue into the new year.”

The negative impact of temporary price reductions and Y for £X deals – which have consistently been in decline for a number of periods – has worsened without being offset by increasing full price sales. In yoghurt this dynamic is more marked as sales on promotion move into decline and full price sales growth falls by £4.5m.

In terms of shoppers, the majority of reduced uplift in dairy spend has come from retired shoppers, and is evident among shoppers from all social groups except those on lowest incomes (Ds). Yoghurt sees its negative step change across all shopper demographics.

Closely following Morrisons, the remaining big four have each continued to increase sales every month since April. At Tesco, sales grew by 2.1% though share was down 0.3 percentage points to 27.9%. Asda meanwhile has sustained its recent recovery, with sales up 1.8% in the past 12 weeks.

Fraser McKevitt explains: “Despite traditionally selling a higher proportion of brands than its major rivals it is own-label sales which are driving the growth at Asda. They now account for 45% of sales, with Asda’s value-focused Farm Stores line and premium Extra Special range leading the charge.”

Sales at Sainsbury’s increased 1.9% on last year while market share now stands at 15.8%, down 0.2 percentage points. Only 35% of Sainsbury’s sales are now through price-cut deals, down sharply from nearly 40% a year ago as part of the retailer’s ongoing programme of scaling back the overall level of promotions.

Fraser McKevitt continues: “Aldi and Lidl collectively added an additional £390 million in sales this quarter, which accounts for half of the entire market’s overall growth this period.” Lidl remains Britain’s fastest growing supermarket, up by 16.0%, while Aldi grew by 13.4%. Share increased for both retailers by 0.6 percentage points, up to 5.2% of the market for Lidl and 6.8% for Aldi.

Waitrose sales increased by 2.3% though in contrast share fell by 0.1% to 5.3%. Despite the fall Waitrose has again pulled ahead of Lidl in terms of market share – the premium retailer is traditionally stronger in the latter stages of the year as consumers start trading up for the Christmas period.

At Co-op, sales fell back by 2.5% and market share fell to 6.2%, a drop of 0.3 percentage points. Iceland’s sales grew by 2.6% -notably, it is the only bricks and mortar retailer other than Aldi and Lidl not to lose market share this period.

Online sales growth has slowed to 6.7% from a recent high of 21.9% in October 2014. Ocado’s sales increase of 8.7% means it continues to win share of the online market. With only 18% of the population buying groceries online in the latest 12 weeks, online specialists and the traditional supermarkets will both be looking to capitalise on the potential for long-term growth through Internet sales.

Twenty years ago, the supermarkets accounted for less than 10% of all clothing and footwear items sold in Britain. Today, that number has ballooned to nearly 25%. Their high volume sales tactics have also translated into £1 in £10 across fashion sales today. So how did the supermarkets achieve this? Firstly, British supermarkets were not the first grocers to see the possible profits to be made in the fashion industry. For decades, US stores like Target and Walmart targeted their own shoppers who are already coming for food, entertainment and electronics, to offer clothes as further items in shoppers’ basket. Target then stepped up their fashion game when they began introducing designer collaborations,

which the public responded to voraciously. While Walmart concentrated on the kidswear market, making affordable kids clothes in conjunction with branded characters and cartoons at very accessible prices. In Germany, Lidl is known as a destination for cupboards and closets with about a quarter of all clothing sales accounted by the retailer. More recently, Lidl has stopped dipping its toe in the British fashion market and thrown its hat fully into the ring with their latest collection in collaboration with Heidi Klum.

The biggest hurdle for the supermarkets, and still is for the value grocers, is changing the minds of the public that supermarket clothes are not only stylish, but just as good as the High Street. In grocery, shoppers are now wise to own label food being made in the same factories as household brands with slight recipe differences. In fashion, shoppers are realising the same process happens, seeing no reason why they should pay a premium for a more recognised label. As such, the grocers are able to offer shoppers value for money and more stylish choices than ever before, especially as they begin expanding into the likes of occasionwear, handbags and even tailoring as they invest in more fashion categories.

The grocers face an uphill battle, however, of convincing the public of their fashion credentials in higher ticket item areas. Is there a ceiling for the supermarkets in convincing shoppers what they can offer them? This issue is compounded by the fact that supermarkets are traditionally self-service, whereas fashion is customer service focused. Space also becomes an issue as the stores have to decide whether fashion or food deserves more space when it comes to the bottom line.

While the supermarkets may be facing their own challenges, what they are nailing on the head is right product, right price- the holy grail of fashion, as retailers try to become less reliant on discounting. The supermarkets sell what the product is worth encouraging shoppers to embrace fast fashion and feel like they are getting value, especially in kidswear, where the grocers thrive. Without having to fight for footfall, supermarkets are perfectly placed to appeal to consumers coming in for their weekly shops. With so many pieces to the fashion puzzle in place, it is no wonder that the real disrupters that traditional retailers need to keep a watchful eye out for are the sleeping grocery giants.

Data from Kantar Worldpanel Fashion Panel 52 w/e 27 Aug 2017**

The versatility of the nation’s favourite meat continues to be reflected in the great performance of fresh processed poultry, which is growing volumes at 9% despite rising prices. Only a few categories within these MFP categories are seeing inflation ahead of the market rate, with Fresh Pork and Fresh Natural Fish all seeing significant inflationary rises.

Nathan Ward, Business Unit Director for MFP explains: “Fresh Primary Meat & Poultry continues to lag behind the supermarket growth rate of 3.6%, with value growing at just over 1% and volumes falling by 0.5%. Promotional volumes continue to fall rapidly as price cuts reduce and the overall level of deals fell by 19% on last year. These trends are leading shoppers to make different choice in terms of proteins, cuts and tiers.”, When we look at the proteins in more detail, Red Meat continues to suffer and drive the depressed performance overall. Beef and Lamb are seeing the greatest losses, but Pork has seen a resurgence despite significant inflationary price rises.

Behind pork’s growth are 1.1 million more trips compared to last year, despite the average price rising 6.7%. The cuts winning in volume for Pork are Mince and Leg Roasts, with Pork Mince’s growth stimulated by lower prices in the category bringing in shoppers across all demographic groups. At the same time, Mince is a big driver of the decline in Beef, followed by Roasts which are the key areas of growth in Pork. Poultry continues to grow, with value and volume growth closely matched, as prices remain static despite the pressure of inflation on the market. Breasts and Legs continue to grow, but volumes are offset by the decline of roast chickens.

Ward continues “Chilled Fish is really struggling to maintain volumes in the face of inflation in Natural and Smoked Fish, which has now dropped behind Added Value in terms of volume sales. The inflation in these two categories remains around 16% which is having a big impact on volumes. Natural Fish has seen 700,000 fewer shoppers as prices rise 16.7% compared to last year. Smoked Fish attracted 750,000 fewer shoppers as these price grew by12%.”. This decline is having a big impact on Salmon which dominates these categories and is driving the volume losses for both categories.

Added Value products continue to be the success story in the category as people look for meal solutions and simple meals. Value and volume growth are coming with relatively little price inflation, as promotions in this area offset rising base prices. Added value growth is coming from a good mix of promotions with price cuts and y for £X deals helping to stimulate sales. Salmon is winning in this area, offsetting some of the volume losses elsewhere, with Prawns, Mussels, Cod and Haddock also important in driving volume.

When we look outside of the primary market and fresh fish, the traditional BBQ staples of sausages and burgers are struggling in the short term, perhaps linked to poorer weather across late August than we all hoped for. Volumes are down for both categories driven by fewer shoppers making fewer trips as promotions fall. Disappointing August weather, even with the mini-heatwave over the bank holiday, meant a difficult month for many traditional summer categories, with prepared salads, picnic foods and sun care all suffering compared to last year. Fraser McKevitt referenced this wider impact in our Grocery Market Share release , showing that MFP was not alone in suffering from the disappointing weather.

The real success story over the last few months has been the fresh processed poultry which remains the best performing market in this area, adding 605,000 more shoppers and 8.8 million more trips this year.As we move into autumn and the weather changes will we see shoppers move back towards the comfort foods they know and love, or will inflationary pressures drive a different behaviour? Find out in our next update in four weeks’ time.

However, knowing that the biggest brands have the most buyers and that attracting extra customers is the best route to growth is not, on its own, enough.

In our latest paper, Thoughts On: Brand Growth we set out our four clear rules that should inform how to consider brand growth. These are derived from observed shopper behaviour and challenge some widely-held assumptions about brand loyalty and the importance of reaching new shoppers.

You can download the full report by clicking on the button to the right. For access to our full insights library, including previous Thoughts On papers click here.

Using a custom-made smartphone app, Shoppix, Worldpanel Plus allows panellists to record their purchases and the motivations behind them in real time. Users photograph their receipts through the app, which can in turn trigger surveys to assess why they made their purchase decisions.

This latest launch is part of an ongoing investment programme to ensure that Kantar Worldpanel continues to deliver the best and most accurate read of the British consumer. The new service will extend the depth of its insights into markets including sporting goods, toys and tools and will offer the broadest coverage of all retail channels and outlets from one platform. By capturing the motivations behind consumers’ purchase decisions much closer to the moment of purchase, it will allow Kantar Worldpanel to support its clients in making strategic business decisions faster than ever before.

Worldpanel Plus has been developed in response to the demands of a rapidly evolving consumer market. Shoppers are facing increasing choice across a greater number of markets and platforms; brands, retailers and manufacturers need a deeper understanding of consumers’ actions and motivations to harness opportunities for growth and help evaluate their own performance.

Kantar Worldpanel currently collects over 64 million data points a year in the UK alone. The introduction of Worldpanel Plus will deliver insights spanning all retail channels and outlets, while the scale of the panel, which aims to reach 80,000 shoppers, will give businesses even greater clarity on why shoppers make the decisions they do.

Pete East, deputy managing director, Kantar Worldpanel UK and Ireland, said, “We have built a strong position in the marketplace by giving our clients a truly comprehensive understanding of the British consumer. We believe that Worldpanel Plus is a transformative product. The breadth of information which this new panel will provide will support brands, manufacturers and retailers in manoeuvring through a dynamic business environment and allow them to make bolder and more intelligent business decisions.”
For more information on the new service visit www.kantarworldpanel.com/worldpanelplus

Fraser McKevitt, head of retail and consumer insight at Kantar Worldpanel, comments: “We haven’t seen sustained market growth of this kind since May 2013. A 1.5% increase in the volume of goods going through the tills has contributed to this growth while the remainder of the overall sales increase is down to higher prices. Like-for-like grocery inflation now stands at 3.2%, slightly ahead of the headline CPI rate and down 0.1 percentage points on last month. The average British household spends almost £4,200 in the grocers each year so a fall in inflation, which we expect to see as we approach the end of the year, will be a welcome relief.

“Disappointing August weather – even allowing for the mini-heatwave over the bank holiday – meant a difficult month for traditional summer categories. Sales of prepared salad fell 6% while both scotch eggs and sun care were down 16%. In contrast the public spent almost £4 million on cold treatments in August – an increase of almost £2 million on that spent in the same month last year.”

Lidl once again wins the title for fastest growing retailer – a sales increase of 19.2% has taken its market share to a record high of 5.3%, up 0.7 percentage points on last year. Growth was particularly notable among fresh and chilled products such as dairy as well as in white and rosé wines, where Lidl is growing ahead of the market. Meanwhile, Aldi’s sales growth of 15.6% took its market share to 6.9%.

Fraser McKevitt continues: “Collectively Aldi and Lidl now account for nearly £1 in every £8 spent in Britain’s supermarkets – a decade ago this was only £1 in £25. In the past three months almost 63% of shoppers visited one of the two retailers, up from a level of 58.5% last year.”

Despite the growth of the discounters, 98% of households still shopped in at least one of the traditional big four retailers over the same three-month period.

“Tesco’s recovery is becoming more entrenched,” comments Fraser McKevitt. “Sales have grown continually since April this year and are up by 2.7% in the past 12 weeks, though the retailer’s market share remains under pressure, squeezed by 0.3 percentage points to 27.8%. At Morrisons volume sales have risen for the first time since January and sales of its premium ‘The Best’ line are up 38% year-on-year, making it the fastest growing premium range in a market where top-tier products are outperforming all other lines.”

Sainsbury’s market share fell 0.2 percentage points to 15.7% despite an average sales increase across its convenience, supermarket and online channels of 2.1%. The retailer’s strategic move away from temporary promotions continues and only 35% of consumer spend is now on promoted items; this time last year the figure stood at 41%, which remains the average for the rest of the big four.

Asda has attracted an additional 482,000 shoppers through the tills compared with a year ago – the fastest new shopper acquisition by the retailer in over three years. Fraser McKevitt explains: “Average spend at Asda is £25.74 – the highest of any grocer – which reflects the success of its larger stores and their appeal for families.”

Sales increased at Iceland for an 18th consecutive period and are now up 4.0% on a year ago, though market share has remained flat at 2.1%. After months of strong growth in less traditional lines such as fresh produce and dairy Iceland’s core frozen ranges gave it a significant boost, growing by 6% and accounting for 41% of sales.

Despite announcing a fall in profits last week, Waitrose’s sales increased by 2.4%. The retailer has retained a 5.3% share of the market and is currently level with Lidl, though the discounter’s rapid growth rate means the share gap is expected to re-open in the coming months.

Co-op sales fell for the second month in row, taking market share down 0.3 percentage points to 6.3%. Ocado grew sales by 10.1%; 834,000 households shopped with the retailer in the latest12 weeks, giving it its highest ever penetration of the population.

Yoghurt continues to contribute to growth, along with milk and butter. But the biggest improvement in growth contribution on last period comes from cheese, which sees a £16.4 million uplift compared with the same 12 weeks last year. Nearly all of the growth is a result of rising prices (now at £6.29 per unit compared with £6.16 last year) and cheese is consequently not reflecting the volume gains seen in total dairy.

Although the discounters continue to drive growth across the market, the biggest up lift on last period comes in Tesco and Asda; with Morrisons and M&S helping to drive the growth of cheese.

Cheese is consistent with the overall dairy sector in that growth comes through non-promoted products, as every day low prices continue to gain significance. Both see the biggest improvement in growth contribution coming from middle and older families as well as those with older dependents. In terms of social class, C1 and Ds see the biggest improvement across both, with ABs contributing more to the growth of cheese.

On the whole, however, the US real estate is shrinking, with British shoppers preferring home grown brands. Nearly 75% of British clothing and footwear items are bought from British retailers. On the flipside, British shoppers buy nearly 20% of items from European retailers, more than three times the amount bought from American stores.

As shoppers become savvier to deals, price comparison and value for money, American retailers face tougher challenges such as passing on the cost of high store rents and US to UK supply chains to consumers. E-commerce is making the world smaller, and the result is that often shoppers are able to buy American retailers’ products cheaper on the American site than in-store in Britain. American retailers are also concentrating on London-centric flagships, which are not only incredibly expensive, but appeal more to tourists than the average British shopper. London shoppers, however, are actually not the most lucrative; they are ranked fourth in average highest annual spend per shopper, spending £758, behind Scotland, the North East and Lancashire. By only catering to these shoppers, an imported brand is virtually unknown outside of the capital and therefore bases its success on a select group of British shoppers.

While brand power is a strong asset to any fashion retailer, it may not be enough as shoppers become more spoilt for choice and are able to compare prices online. Retailers need to truly understand their shoppers’ habits and their position in the market to fight off competitors. As for American and European retailers that are selling in the UK, understanding British shopping is key. Raising their profile not just in London, but the country as a whole will be crucial as shoppers battle their desire for new items, economic trepidation and have an increasingly wide range of options when it comes to where to spend their cash.

Chilled fish remains one of the highest inflationary markets in grocery, with base prices up significantly and promotional volumes falling. These changes are still holding down volumes, but driving value growth as prices increase rapidly.

Nathan Ward, Business Unit Director for MFP explains: “We’ve seen the fresh primary MFP category really suffer in the last few months as the dynamics of the category change, resulting in 1.7 million fewer shopping trips. The real driver behind changing behaviour remains the reduction of promotions which are down third compared to last year, now only accounting for 23% of sales. A significant part of this is less frequent use of temporary price cuts (TPRs) which are down 42%."

"Red meat is driving the year on year decline in primary MFP as beef, lamb and pork all lose shoppers and see fewer trips. In beef, roasts, steaks and mince are all in decline. Roasts also fuel value decline in lamb, with steaks and chops contributing to volume losses. In pork, losses are offset by price rises - up 9% on average- which mask volume decline and roasting joints and belly are seeing the strongest price rises – sending volumes into decline but value sales up. Shoppers are buying more pork mince, with the price differential to beef mince increasing to £1.25 per kilo – making it a good value alternative. Chicken is bucking the trend, with both volume and value increasing as shoppers pick up chicken on 1.1 million more shops. Prices overall are fairly flat in chicken, with promotions not down as heavily as other categories (-25%). Breasts and legs are driving the growth, with whole birds and crowns continuing to suffer volume losses.”

Ward continues “What we aren’t seeing is a wholesale move away from the market that some had predicted. Over the course of the whole year, the volume of protein purchased in take-home shopping baskets in Britain has risen by 1.6%, equating to an additional 26,000 tonnes of protein. The source of this protein is still primarily meat, dairy, bread and produce, but we have seen growth in markets like breakfast cereals and yogurts where higher protein variants have been launched. There is more competition to MFP as a source of protein, but the changes in promotions are having a greater direct impact on sales.”

The fresh processed markets are seeing a stronger performance, but this is not due to BBQ staples of sausages and burgers which are seeing volumes fall. Fresh processed poultry remains the best performing market, adding 750,000 more shoppers and 9.2 million more trips this year. The growth of processed poultry lines in BBQ deals has helped to drive sales, with the Americana trend also a positive tailwind. Where the category is excelling is offering a competitive price point and increasing promotions. Volume on promotion is up 9%, bucking the trend seen throughout the wider market.

Fraser McKevitt, head of retailer and consumer insight at Kantar Worldpanel, explains: “Ten million households visited the retailer’s expanding network of stores during the past 12 weeks, with alcohol and fresh produce performing particularly well as the retailer increased sales by 18.9% overall. Lidl is growing sales 40% faster with families than with households without children. Families tend to buy more items each time they shop, so strong growth with this demographic has helped Lidl to increase its average basket size year on year. Not far behind, Aldi grew sales by 17.2%, attracting 1.1 million more shoppers through its doors than this time last year and increasing market share by 0.8 percentage points to stand at 7.0%.”

“Overall supermarket sales grew by 4.0% year on year, although disappointing weather hit summer favourites hard during the past month. Ice cream sales were down 9% as consumers huddled indoors, while sales of burgers slumped by 25% – an £8 million loss year on year – as rain dampened the nation’s appetite for barbecues. In contrast, sausages managed to escape the summer downturn thanks to a growing taste for posh bangers: 1/3 of those purchased during the month were from premium own label lines, as retailers persuaded shoppers that sausages should be enjoyed beyond the barbecue.”
Like-for-like grocery inflation increased slightly to 3.3% after holding steady at 3.2% for the past two months. At the current rate, price increases could add a further £138 to the average household’s annual grocery bill, with the price of butter and fish most affected.

Meanwhile there is good news for the UK’s largest retailers, as the recovery which has so far defined 2017 continues apace. Fraser McKevitt comments: “All four of Britain’s biggest grocers managed to grow sales for the fifth consecutive period, a run of collective success not seen since 2013. However, this welcome period of sustained growth hasn’t been enough to entirely offset pressure from the discounters: the big four now account for just 69.3% of the UK grocery market – down from 76.3% five years ago – and that looks set to fall further in the coming months.”

Overall sales grew by 3.0% at Tesco, helped by an increase in volume sales, but market share fell to 27.8% – down 0.3 percentage points compared to last year. Morrisons increased sales by 2.6% – the ninth consecutive period of growth for the Bradford-based supermarket – while market share dropped slightly to stand at 10.4%. Morrisons’ online business is performing particularly well: the retailer continues to increase its share of the online grocery market, attracting more shoppers as it expands its delivery service to new parts of the UK. Meanwhile, Sainsbury’s sales rose by 2.0% as the grocer’s market share fell to 15.8% – down 0.3 percentage points year on year.

Fraser McKevitt continues: “After a difficult couple of years, Asda has managed to continue the run of positive sales performance which began in April this year – up 1.4% during the latest quarter. This follows the retailer’s recent announcement of a return to like-for-like sales growth, suggesting Asda is asserting its recovery across the board. Own label has been important to the grocer’s turnaround, providing a boost from both ends of the price spectrum: the value ‘Farm Stores’ and premium ‘Extra Special’ lines both saw double-digit growth during the past 12 weeks.”

Waitrose’s market share held steady at 5.1% as it managed to increase sales by 2.8% year on year, continuing the unbroken run of growth the grocer has enjoyed since March 2009. Sales of branded goods were up 7% year on year at Waitrose – particularly noteworthy at a time when many retailers are focusing more on their own label lines.

After more than two years in growth, Co-op’s sales declined by 0.4% as its market share fell to 6.3% – down 0.3 percentage points compared to this time last year. This dip is at least partly attributable to the retailer’s sale of nearly 300 of its stores to convenience chain McColl’s. Meanwhile online specialist Ocado increased sales by 12.6%, now holding 1.4% of the overall grocery market.

“Samsung regained the top sales spot in the USA in the three-month period ending in May 2017, with market share rising to 36.2% from 32.9% during the previous period,” said Dominic Sunnebo, Global Business Unit Director at Kantar Worldpanel ComTech. “However, this represents a fall of 1.1 percentage points over the past year, with Apple holding a 34.0% share, up 4.7 percentage points from a year earlier. The Galaxy S8 launch helped Samsung regain the top position in the USA, but the bounce from the flagship launch was less than would be expected from a full product redesign.”

Apple and Samsung continue to dominate smartphone sales, each with five models on the top 10 best-selling list. iPhone 7 and iPhone 7 Plus occupy the top two spots, with the Samsung Galaxy S7 in third place, just ahead of the Samsung Galaxy S8 in the number four spot. The launch of the LG G6 had minimal impact, with the G6 now in thirteenth position with a 1.3% share in the US.

In urban China, iOS share remained almost flat at 19.2%, down 0.4 percentage points year-over-year, though an improvement from 16.2% in the three months ending April 2017. Huawei remained the market leader as its share grew 2.9 percentage points to 28.3%. Xiaomi performance edged up after a challenging few months, with the Xiaomi Redmi Note 4X coming in as the fourth-best-selling device in the three months ending May 2017.

“Xiaomi managed to regain some momentum with the Note 4X launch, but the brand is making slow progress with its higher-tier devices,” said Tamsin Timpson, Strategic Insight Director at Kantar Worldpanel ComTech Asia. “Xiaomi’s average selling price in the three months ending in May was 41% below the market ASP at ¥1523, and 33% below Huawei’s Honor Brand.”

In EU5, Android accounted for 79.5% of smartphone sales in the three months ending May 2017, increasing 2.8 percentage points from a year earlier, driven by strong performance in GB, Germany, and France. iOS share edged up across Germany, France, and Spain, though declines in Great Britain and Italy meant overall iOS EU5 share remained steady, up 0.2% year-on-year to 18.4%. Europe’s big five markets include Great Britain, Germany, France, Italy, and Spain.

“Samsung performed well in France in the three months ending in May 2017,” Sunnebo noted. “The low- and mid-tier Galaxy J series and A series models enabled Samsung to compete more effectively with home-grown upstart Wiko and global challenger Huawei. However, the largest contributor to Android’s EU5 growth came from Huawei, which posted strong sales in all EU5 markets except Spain. Huawei continued to produce good sales volumes, but its flagship P10 struggled to make an impact in sales rankings, with share gains attributed to the older, more value-orientated P8 and P9 Lite models.”

Note: The Kantar Worldpanel ComTech dataviz can be embedded into online articles for a visual representation of Kantar Worldpanel ComTech Smartphone OS market share data. Click here to copy the embed code.

In the newsletter the team look at how summer 2017 is shaping up for produce, and how the market and shoppers are responding to this new reality, the rise of prepared fruit in snacking, and the million dollar question – what is the next avocado?

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Olivia Moore, analyst at Kantar Worldpanel, explains: “The physical entertainment market has had another tough quarter, parting company with 1.3 million shoppers compared to this time last year. Music has been a real bright spot, thanks in large part to Ed Sheeran’s latest chart-topping offering. Divide has accounted for over 10% of CD sales since its launch in March. A quarter of those buying Sheeran’s offering hadn’t bought a CD in the previous 12 months, so the release tempted 250,000 buyers back to the physical entertainment market.”

“This improving performance for physical music has been in spite of the rising digital tide: 13% of the UK population now pays for a streaming service – up from 9% this time last year – and tie-ups promising digital content are bringing streaming to a wider audience. These offers are proving popular with consumers: since EE introduced a six-month free Apple Music trial, a fifth of its customers have reported feeling like they were getting more bang for their buck. But CDs aren’t out of tricks just yet: they still have a loyal following among older consumers, and fans of all ages still want to own hard copies of high-profile releases like Ed Sheeran’s Divide.”

HMV saw its market share increase as a result of the strong quarter for music – up 0.8 percentage points – as it managed to encourage more browsing shoppers to make a purchase. 29% of spending in HMV was by those who entered the store to browse during the past quarter, up from 20% last year.

Olivia Moore continues: “Amazon remained the biggest entertainment retailer, taking its highest market share of 2017 so far despite year-on-year share decline. Meanwhile, fewer gaming releases than last year took their toll on GAME’s share of the market, down 2.5 percentage points on this time last year. Argos fared better, adding 0.8 percentage points to its overall market share and accounting for over a fifth of planned spending on games during the latest quarter: good news for new owner Sainsbury’s.

“Gaming titles accounted for only two of the top 10 titles across physical entertainment during the past three months – down from five last year – thanks to a quieter release slate during the latest quarter. Shoppers are also buying games less often, playing top titles for longer before making a new purchase – great for customers’ wallets, but a challenge for gaming retailers.”

Elsewhere video saw some success with new releases, which grew by 2% year on year. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story took the top spot, following in the very successful footsteps of The Force Awakens last year. One million shoppers picked up a copy of Rogue One, and with the franchise set to continue for at least another three years, retailers will be looking to encourage shoppers to collect the whole series in DVD or Blu-ray format.

Yoghurt is the stand out category this month, almost doubling its contribution to growth from £12.4 million to £21 million this period. Bucking the premiumisation trend, yoghurt has grown mostly through attracting new shoppers, and shoppers buying more often, alongside increased prices.

Among the retailers, Sainsbury’s has seen the biggest uplift in growth in yoghurt, followed by Tesco, Lidl, Asda and Ocado. In contrast, in total dairy Sainsbury’s, Tesco and Lidl all see less growth and Asda, Morrisons and Ocado are driving the uplift.

Another contrast is that the upturn in yoghurt is being propelled by temporary price reductions, whereas across total dairy - and the wider grocery market – we’re seeing the power of promotions waning and full price sales driving growth.

Whilst performance is strong among all demographics, ABC1 shoppers, pre-family, young families and retired shoppers are driving the biggest upturn in growth in yoghurt.

Nathan Ward, Business Unit Director for MFP explains: “These are tough times for primary meat and poultry, with shoppers making 3.5 million fewer trips to the category compared with last year. In previous updates, the push of inflation was offset by promotional pull, but as we see the power of promotions wane, all primary markets have moved into volume decline.

The big change we’ve seen is promotional volumes falling 42% on last year as both price cuts and meal deals become less prevalent.
Roasts are a big factor behind volume decline across all of the markets, with roasting joints and whole birds (and crowns) all performing behind the market. Chicken has been a long term success story but previous volume growth has turned into slight decline this period, driven by promotional changes and the poor performance of roasts. Chicken is no different to primary meat, seeing promotional volumes down 41%, with straight price cuts impacting the volume of sales on promotion. The important growth sectors, breast and legs, continue to see volume growth, but this is no longer offsetting losses from roasting products.”

Ward continues “Red meats are even more reliant on roasting joints and are seeing the strongest volume declines, with lamb attracting 360,000 fewer shoppers this year and pork 154,000 fewer. Mince and steak have been the long term areas of strength for beef, but both are seeing fewer shoppers and significantly less trips compared to last year. Promotions for both cuts are down, with steak seeing volumes on promotion reduce by a third, prompting price rises of 22p per kilo.

Mince continues to see promotional decline to a lesser extent, but experiences a higher increase in prices, up 26p per kilo.” The processed markets are seeing a much stronger performance, but this isn’t completely driven by BBQ staples – sausages and burgers – as might be expected. Fresh processed poultry remains the best performing market adding 890,000 more shoppers this year and seeing 9.2 million more trips to the category. This is one case where BBQ deals have helped to drive sales.

Chilled fish is one of the categories seeing highest inflation in grocery, with base prices up significantly and promotional volumes falling by a third compared with last year. These changes are holding down volumes, but driving value growth as prices increase rapidly. Natural fish is the largest category and a significant driver of price rises in chilled fish. With average prices up £1.92 per kilo and promotional volumes down 60%, half a million fewer shoppers are purchasing the category. Smoked fish has seen prices rise by £1.42 per kilo and promotional volumes halve, driving similar shopper losses. Added value fish continues to show a strong performance in value and volume terms as 470,000 more shoppers buy the sector with promotions increasing and prawn, cod and haddock dishes particularly driving the growth.

We’ve seen a massive change in promotions over the last few months and inflation finally take hold in the category, will the next update see these trends continue? Find out in our next update in four weeks’

“Following a two-year period of falling prices in the butter market, costs began to creep up around six months ago. In the twelve weeks to the 18 June, we’ve seen price hikes really accelerate: the average cost of butter now stands at £4.92 per kilo – a rise of almost 18%.

“We’ve recently seen a return to inflation in the grocery market so prices are up across the board. However, inflation in the broader market stands at 3.2% - and milk, another dairy staple is up less than 3% year on year - a fraction of the rate at which the price of butter has risen.

“So what’s behind these rocketing butter prices? A closer look at the dynamic between own-label and branded butter sheds some light on the trend.

“For almost five years the price of own-label butter was in slow but steady decline, falling from £4.79 per kilo in mid-2012 to £3.41 per kilo in May last year. Branded butter saw prices drop too but not to the same extent. Over the past year, prices of private label block butter have jumped by almost a third, bringing the average price to £4.62 per kilo. Despite the sharp rise, today’s prices are lower than they were five years ago, suggesting that this is a more a return to normal pricing, levelling the playing field between branded and own label.

“Another trend which has contributed to higher average prices is reduced promotional activity as supermarkets switch to everyday low pricing. The proportion of butter sold on promotion fell by 23% last year, with block butter particularly affected. However this isn’t deterring shoppers from adding the everyday staple to their baskets with volume sales remaining fairly flat.

“Finally, the trend for more natural, less processed products has led many Brits to move away from margarine and other low-fat alternatives. Butter is no longer viewed as wholly ‘bad for you’, but rather part of healthy balanced diet - this has increased demand for block and spreadable butters which are viewed as more natural. The impact of consumers switching spend from lower cost margarines and spreads to butter, which has a higher cost per kilo, is that we are seeing rising prices in butters and spreads overall.”

“Added value fish and shellfish are vital to volume growth in chilled fish, as they are growing ahead of the market. Natural fish has seen volumes stabilise; prices have risen 12%, and a drop off in the number of shoppers is offset by them buying a little more each. Salmon has been affected significantly by price rises; natural salmon is up £1.70 per kilo year on year, whilst smoked salmon has seen prices rise by a quarter – up £5.13 per kilo - sending volumes down 16% this year.”

Ward continues, “Smoked salmon price rises aren’t just affecting those on low incomes. ABC1s are cutting back at the same rate those with less disposable income, resulting in 440,000 fewer shoppers compared to last year. There is clearly a limit for consumers when it comes to inflation and some categories will be heavily affected by price hikes.”

The great weather in late May and early June has helped to drive stronger performance for primary and processed meat and poultry. Lamb looks to be performing well, but this is a result of the phasing of Easter and looking across the year, value is down 6%. Chicken is now clearly the dominant protein in primary meat and poultry, seeing almost double the sales of beef (by volume) in the latest 12 weeks. Chicken is still seeing value and volume growth, with prices decreasing as retailers focus on everyday low prices.

Processed meat and poultry is seeing faster growth than primary, which is unsurprising given the sunny weather which put BBQs high on the agenda for shoppers. But the beneficiaries of this are not just the traditional BBQ categories, with processed poultry also in value and volume growth. Another big headline is the strong performance from bacon which has struggled across the year, but is seeing stronger growth in the latest period. We’re taking 1.5 million more shopping trips for bacon compared with last year, and this is driving category growth. Prices are up as promotions continue to fall back, and full price sales now account for two thirds of sales. The resurgence of sausages continues with a return of Y for £X promotions helping to drive bigger trips.

With the heatwave in late June falling into next month’s update, it looks likely we’ll be reporting more positive news for our categories in four weeks’ time.

“Butter and fish fans will be feeling price increases most keenly; butter is almost 20% more expensive than last year while farmed salmon supply issues have been among the factors contributing to a 14% price rise across fresh and tinned fish. However, it’s not only inflation which is bolstering market growth. Recent spates of hot weather have given an early boost to traditional summer categories including ice cream and cider, with respective increases of 12% and 16% adding £58 million in sales, and that’s not including the most recent heatwave.”

It’s been another positive period for the individual retailers, several of which are seeing their best growth in years. Tesco sales grew by 3.5%, its fastest rate since April 2012. Fraser McKevitt continues: “Tesco has attracted a further 369,000 shoppers and increased sales across all channels, rising fastest online and through its Extra stores. Despite being in growth for most of the past 12 months its market share now stands at 27.8%, down 0.4 percentage points since June 2016.”

Morrisons achieved the strongest sales performance of the big four grocers. The retailer increased sales by 3.7%, posting growth for the seventh consecutive period despite market share slipping back by 0.2 percentage points to 10.6%. Meanwhile, Sainsbury’s impressive growth online and in its Local convenience stores – particularly in London – helped increase sales by 3.1%.
Asda’s recent recovery continues, as Fraser McKevitt explains: “Asda is the only retailer where branded products are outpacing own label lines – significant for the grocer given it sells a greater proportion of brands than many of its rivals. That isn’t to say Asda’s own label offer is struggling – its Extra Special premium line and recently launched Farm Stores range contributed to a 1.4% increase in private label sales. Overall sales rose by 2.2%, although its market share fell half a percentage point year-on-year to 15.1%.

“Lidl has pipped Aldi to the title of the UK’s fastest growing supermarket for the first time since March, with sales growth of 18.8% just ahead of the latter’s 18.7%. Both retailers continue to gain market share – combined, the two have gained 1.4 percentage points since June 2016 and now hold 5.0% and 6.9% respectively.”

Co-op has now seen continuous growth for a full two years, up 2.2% in the latest period alone. Meanwhile, Iceland, which is up 7.4%, has successfully posted 15 periods of increasing sales. Waitrose had its best sales growth since March 2012, growing marginally ahead of the market at 5.3%, although its share has remained flat at 5.2%.

Amazon’s potential purchase of Whole Foods has brought renewed focus to online shopping, which now accounts for 7.6% of grocery sales and is growing by more than 10% each year. The retail giant will be keen to increase its share of the grocery sector, where it currently holds less than 1% of online sales. Its online rival Ocado now has an overall market share of 1.3%, with sales up 10.7% compared with this time last year.

Millennials continue to be the focus of the fashion industry and for good reason. The majority of this group (defined as those under 25), account for nearly 17% of all clothing and footwear sales in the UK, the third highest share behind those 45 and over. They also have the highest average spend per item at £11.22 - 70p higher than the average - so are more willing to part with their cash on a single item than any other age group. Targeting these buyers is a very different game altogether. They have a very distinctive attitude towards fashion and shopping that sets them apart from other age groups, especially in womenswear, which accounts for nearly 60% of their total clothing spend.

The latest Kantar Worldpanel data (52 w/e 07 May 2017) combines findings from attitudinal questions posed to millennials with our panel data to better understand their attitudes to retail.

In an age where people can compare prices online, retailers are competing more than ever for consumers’ attention and cash. But what we see with under 25s, however, is that once this group is through the doors or online, they are more likely to be enticed to buy something.

Firstly, under 25 womenswear shoppers are 28% more likely than the average womenswear shopper to enjoy shopping. Not only that, but 60% of this group see fashion as a treat and are 46% more likely than average to buy fashion on impulse. This group can be best reached on social platforms where more than a third say they get fashion inspiration. Rather than through advertisements, under 25s look for authentic and genuine promotion, usually from fashion bloggers and influencers whose style they look up to and credentials they trust. In comparison, only 16% of 25 to 44 year old womenswear shoppers look to social media for fashion inspiration.

Another main difference between these womenswear millennial shoppers and other age groups is that loyalty card use is less of a priority. While half of under 25s in womenswear use loyalty cards, they are 17% less likely than the average womenswear shopper to do so. In such a competitive and fragmented market, retailers are bringing in loyalty card schemes to increase frequency and retain more spend from their shoppers’ wallets. With under 25s, however, authenticity and appeal is more important than the potential benefits of a loyalty card. And we do find they are less loyal than other age groups – shopping for womenswear in 13 stores compared with the average shopper who visits 12.

While retailers are constantly looking for ways to garner shoppers’ attention, the best way to reach groups like millennials is to look at how they like to shop and adapt accordingly. Many retailers are promoting what they think their customers want rather than understanding what they want, and this creates a disconnection between the two. Truly understanding their consumers’ mindsets will not only help fashion retailers get to know their shoppers from an attitudinal perspective, but allow comparison against their competitor set as well. Discerning how different groups stand out from one another will help arm retailers with the knowledge to target these groups accordingly.

Own label has become even more important for retailers as key lever to keep hold of shoppers. Firstly, retailers want to offer cheap options on their shelves and secondly to provide a point of difference with competitors.

In order to increase market share, own label lines are looking and acting more like brands in their own right. To do this they must understand both shoppers and especially consumers. Own label lines need to help shoppers in their quest to be healthier and happier, and provide ways for their snacking to be even more convenient.

The continued rise of premium retailer brands demonstrates that being cheap is not the only option for own label. Quality and innovation are something the very best own labels should be striving for.

This is reflected in our latest piece of work with Facebook, in which we enhanced our media exposure information from our 30,000 UK grocery panel with their advertising exposure data. We were commissioned to anaylse 13 video FMCG campaigns, and then undertake a meta-analysis to help Facebook understand the synergistic effect between TV and Facebook campaigns in the UK.

We first looked at the return on ad spend (ROAS) of each campaign individually. By understanding ROAS and reach by channel, we were able to model likelihood to purchase. The model showed that, based on the figures from TV only exposure and Facebook only exposure, the expected uplift in likelihood to purchase when exposed to ads on both channels was 22%, but our model showed the figure was actually 29%, a 1.3X increase on what was expected.

For more information, visit the Facebook Business page, or contact Kiri Mitchell.

Butters, spreads and margarine, cream and eggs all continue to deliver stand-out value growth but another sector continuing a positive move into growth in recent periods is cheese - specifically pre-packed cheese.

A key driver of this upturn has been a move out of long-running price decline into positive price growth in the past two periods. In part, this has been driven by a gradual pull back on promotions, with 38% of sales on promotion, down from 44%. The growth of more premium own label cheese sectors is also driving value. While value own label (priced at £4.58/kg on average) has seen decline of -5.6% in the past year, the higher priced premium (£9.72/kg) and named creamery (£9.00/kg) have grown by 7.9% and 19.2% respectively.

This trend of premiumisation within the sector is matched with long term growth in frequency and static trip volumes. So for now, higher prices are not yet affecting frequency or the amount we’re buying per trip as is might be expected. In fact we see the number of occasions cheese was consumed in the last year increase by 193 million  - whereas the previous year it only increased by 21 million - as it increasingly fulfils more needs for consumers, particularly around health and enjoyment.

*Average prices over 52 weeks

Smartphone collection technology

Our smartphone collection technology lets us track the exact moment of consumption and, as a result, develop a detailed picture of consumers’ behaviours and attitudes. Data gathered includes demographic information about the final consumer, where the purchase has been made and the price paid, adding to the existing Kantar Worldpanel offer in order to create an integrated view of the in-home and out-of-home food and drink markets.

This panels offer our clients the ability to answer such questions as:

• Is my competition different between light and high frequency buyers?
• Where do I have more opportunities? Which occasions should drive my growth?
• Which customer needs are we successfully meeting and how are we performing over time?
• How can we drive customer loyalty?
• What repertoire do consumers have across the year?
• Who are my true competitors?

Chilled fish continues to see the strongest price inflation, but processed meat and poultry are also seeing rising prices. We know that consumers are feeling the pinch, with the average household spending an additional £27 on groceries over the past 12 weeks. This will be affecting shoppers in different ways, but is likely to cause people to trade down on staples. But are they buying cheaper products in the same sector, or moving into different proteins?

The primary meat and poultry market is seeing some interesting dynamics at the moment. Chicken continues its volume growth and is closing in on red meat sales overall. Nathan Ward, Business Unit Director for MFP explains: “Chicken’s popularity continues to increase. Dishes are driving growth in meals and the versatility of chicken is an important part of its appeal. Chicken has seen 4.8m more trips compared to last year, which is driving the volume growth. Prices have dropped, driven by a change in the sector mix, falling prices in whole birds, and a reduction in promotions which are down a third compared to last year. Breast, legs and whole birds are the key categories for growth”.

Beef has tipped into volume decline in the latest period, driven by smaller baskets, as mince and marinades grow in importance and roasts lose volume sales after a slower Easter performance. Chilled fish remains the fastest growing market in value terms, but is experiencing volume losses in previously buoyant sectors. Nathan Ward explains: “We’ve said it before, but inflation continues to be a large part of the value growth in chilled fish.

Volume growth is slowing as prices continue to hit some shoppers. What is more surprising is that it isn’t the most hard pushed shoppers reducing volume, but ABs and younger shoppers - particularly young families”. Natural fish is the most affected market, with volume down 4%, but prices up 13.5%. We are seeing 490,000 fewer shoppers buying into natural fish, showing the impact of these price rises. Mackerel is seeing the heaviest impact with both value and volume down as prices rise 23%. Smoked fish is seeing the strongest volume decline in salmon and kippers, as 540,000 fewer shoppers buy the category. Prices have risen 16% this year, as base prices rise and promotional volumes halve. Shellfish is the one sector in value decline, but volumes remain up, as prices fall 9% compared to last year. Prawns dominate shellfish and are driving the value decline.

The processed meat and poultry market has continued to grow strongly, with value growing ahead of volume. Fresh processed poultry continues to be the standout performer in this market, with 625,000 more shoppers buying the market driving 6.7m more trips to the category. The growth is driven by older shoppers, particularly more C2DEs. The great weather in April and a mild, dry May look to have encouraged more BBQs, with sausages continuing their strong performance through more shoppers making bigger trips. Promotions in sausages continue to fall, but with BBQ promotions back on the agenda, we are seeing more Y for £X promotions coming into the market.

National BBQ Week will be part of our next market update. Will we see a smoking performance from burgers, or will the damp Bank Holiday extinguish our fire for sausages? Find in four weeks time!

When asked about whether they are confident or concerned about the economy, both generally and when it comes to their own finances, the results show Conservative supporters are the most confident about the UK economy overall and about the cost of their weekly shopping bills. The overall UK economy is the issue most often cited as a concern by Labour supporters, although SNP supporters are the most concerned of all party supporters.

The effects of Brexit are clearly playing on people’s confidence when it comes to personal finances. 24% of our sampled shoppers are very concerned about the prices of imported food from inside the EU (compared to just 8% who are confident). SNP supporters lead the way in their concern, being almost twice as concerned (index value 191) as the population at large, followed by Green party supporters (i=169), and Labour supporters (i=146). Shoppers are equally worried about the price of their annual holiday, with almost one quarter (23%) of shoppers registering themselves as concerned compared to 1 in 10 who are rather more sanguine. Labour and Lib Dems supporters are most concerned (i=156/130 respectively), Conservative voters and UKIPpers are the least concerned about how holiday prices will impact them.

Among Liberal Democrats supporters the biggest concern about the post-Brexit economic landscape is the potential rising cost of imported food from outside the EU. Conversely, more Conservative supporters are confident about the future of the weekly grocery bill by a margin of over two to one; a position at odds with supporters of every other party where concern is much greater.

At a more light-hearted level the findings also give us insight into what items the parties’ voters are likely to put in their shopping baskets:

• Conservatives are showing their confidence with above average consumption of classic spirits like brandy, rum and whisky. Lib Dems aren’t letting their polling performance get them down, buying an incredible two times as much sparkling wine (Prosecco, Champagne, etc) as the average shopper. Despite trailing in the polls, Labour supporters, however, are buying less alcohol than the average shopper, and buying twice as much non-alcoholic beer as average shoppers.SNP supporters have a diverse palate, over-indexing on purchases of cider and white wine, while surprisingly under-indexing in purchases of whisky, buying less than every other party except the Lib Dems.

• Those who say they’ll vote for Theresa May and the Conservatives buy more products from the alcohol and fresh fish categories. Showing a health conscious streak, they buy more healthcare products, beans, nuts, and prepared veg from the produce aisle.

• Labour supporters put more toiletries into their trolley, and carbs such as pasta and rice are a big feature of their food shops. As well as the essentials, Labour voters also treat themselves to more soft drinks and crisps and snacks than average.  Like former Labour foreign secretary David Miliband, they’re fans of bananas, being more likely than most to pick them up on their trips to the fruit and veg aisle. Like their abstentious leader, they buy less alcohol than the average shopper.

• Liberal Democrat supporters buy more than their fair share of fruit, veg and salad. They’re also fans of pickles and sauces and buy more hot drinks than others. In the produce aisle, they spend more on prepared fruit, and are particularly big fans of the middle class favourite du jour – avocados.

• Again SNP supporters buy more alcohol than average, and treat themselves to more biscuits, confectionery, crisps and snacks, and soft drinks. Fans of the Scottish first minister will have been excited to see this year’s crop of new potatoes coming into store recently, with these being a big fixture in their produce favourites. The drinks choices of SNP supporters reveal a broad church within the party - cider, sparkling wine, and rose or white wine all feature.

• When it comes to fresh produce, UKIP supporters prefer standard potatoes and melons. Perhaps a few UKIPpers own a British bulldog or two – as they spend more on pet care than the average shopper. They buy more alcohol, with ale, fortified wine like port, brandy, gin, vodka, whisky all making the shopping list, and they are much less likely to buy sparkling wine than average. They also buy more canned goods than other party supporters.

The index finds the share of grocery shopping conducted online continues to rise, particularly in the world’s most advanced e-commerce markets such as South Korea, China and the UK. In the UK, online sales grew from 6.7% to 7.3% value share in the last year alone, making British shoppers second only to South Koreans in the proportion of groceries they buy online.

In South Korea, the most advanced e-commerce market, almost 70% of the population is shopping online more than once per month. The UK, France, USA, Mainland China and Taiwan online is reaching more than 25% of the population.

Frequency of online shopping is also increasing globally, with UK online shoppers buying more often than anywhere else, purchasing an average of 15.4 times a year, up from 14.1 in 2015.

And whilst frequency of online shopping is on the rise, the average spend per shop remains much higher than offline. The average online spend is twice as high as offline in South Korea, Taiwan and France, and over four times as high in the UK. At $83.40, UK online baskets are the largest in the world.

Our data also shows that in the UK, the average e-commerce shopping occasion is worth $64.90 more than the average offline shopping trip. The higher online spend is a combination of shoppers choosing online primarily for large stock up trips and retailers requiring a minimum spend.