Shopper Digest: Are You Still a Priority During Raya?

For many FMCG brands, Raya is more than just a festive sales peak; it’s a critical period when households traditionally prioritise certain categories. Historically, these “Raya priority” segments enjoyed strong penetration, larger basket sizes, and reliable seasonal uplifts.

But that pattern is shifting. Economic pressures, evolving lifestyles, and alternative category options are reshaping what shoppers value, not just during everyday shopping, but during festive occasions too. The habits formed in non-Raya periods often carry over into the festive season, sometimes permanently.

In 2025, despite Raya’s reputation as a peak sales period, total FMCG value growth was flat. Some categories proved resilient, while others declined. A beverage category, once a festive staple, is now being de-prioritised by shoppers. The category is losing its place in the festive basket, even among shopper groups who used to buy it more than others. This shift is not just about price sensitivity; it reflects a deeper change in how shoppers define “essentials” during festive periods.

Within this beverage category, Brand A has experienced a significant decline, with total volume sales falling by 30% during Raya 2025. This downturn is not merely a reflection of seasonal shifts or pricing dynamics, but it signals a behavioural change among shoppers.
 

The decline is rooted in two critical dimensions: fewer households are choosing Brand A, and those who are buying are also less frequent. Penetration has dropped by 1.8 percentage points, indicating that the brand is losing relevance in the shopping repertoire of many consumers. Buy rate is also softening, with volume per buyer falling by double digits, driven by a reduction in purchase frequency. The top of mind by looking at these numbers: (1) not only are shoppers walking away from the brand, (2) even loyalist shoppers are scaling back their purchases.

But is that always the case? What if we look at it on a deeper level? By using our New, Lapsed and Repeat (NLR) analysis, we are able to dive deeper into each type of shopper, giving us a better understanding of your position in their baskets.

Clearly Brand A is not recruiting new shoppers as fast as they are losing their lapsed shoppers. Looking at the basket size of each shopper, Brand A’s lapsers, unsurprisingly, allocated more volume into their baskets than the new buyers. However, among their repeat shoppers, they are adding more volume to their baskets. This behaviour suggests that while the brand is losing casual or seasonal buyers, its core base is still engaged and possibly even more invested.

This insight opens up a strategic opportunity. On top of recruiting new buyers, brands can leverage the strength of their repeat base. These shoppers are already engaged—they know the brand, trust it, and are willing to invest more during key occasions like Raya. The challenge is to keep them feeling prioritised. That means designing festive campaigns that reward loyalty, offering pack sizes and flavours that reflect their preferences, and ensuring visibility in the right channels. Ultimately, being a “Raya priority” isn’t just about being present in the basket, it’s about being chosen with intention.

At Worldpanel by Numerator, we help brands uncover the hidden value in their shopper base. Our tools track repeat purchase behaviour, basket size evolution, and shopper segmentation, helping you identify where loyalty lives—and how to grow it.

Source:  P4 2025, Malaysia Peninsular Household Panel, Worldpanel by Numerator